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a quick look at 2026 FA

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While I get people wanting to get rid of Onwenu to extent the supply & demand of OL may make it not worthwhile. A starting level guard is going to cost $10M-12M APY. An above average one will be more. Will Fries signed a 5 year $87 million dollar contract with the Vikings.

Moses is a steal on his contract. He's 13th/61 in OTs with atleast 50% snaps in pass block efficiency. He'd arguably be the 2nd best available RT in FA. He's going nowhere.

Owenu has a $25 million cap hit next year and would give back $17.5 million on the cap if he is cut. You just sold me on cutting on Owenu and signing a much better one. Would you rather have Will Fries at $17.4 million a year or Owenu at $25 million?
 
His dead cap hit is $7.5M. The best available guards are Edwards, 34 year old Bitonio, 31 year old Teller & Vera-Tucker who's finished the season on IR in back to back years. Onwenu might be the highest paid guard in FA. I get cutting him and drafting a replacement though.

You can draft a RG in the second or third round who can start right away and be a solid player. But Owenu is average to below average right now getting paid top dollar. You can find a lateral move at a lot less and use the cap savings on other positions.
 
Owenu has a $25 million cap hit next year and would give back $17.5 million on the cap if he is cut. You just sold me on cutting on Owenu and signing a much better one. Would you rather have Will Fries at $17.4 million a year or Owenu at $25 million?

Onwenu (10 games):

1 sack
1 hit
14 hurries
97.7 pass block efficiency (12th/49)

Fries (9 games):

1 sack
2 hits
17 hurries
96.9 pass block efficiency (33th/49)

Posters don't like Onwenu but he is an above average guard on a top 10 OL this season. Finding good starting OL is not easy.
 
Onwenu (10 games):

1 sack
1 hit
14 hurries
97.7 pass block efficiency (12th/49)

Fries (9 games):

1 sack
2 hits
17 hurries
96.9 pass block efficiency (33th/49)

Posters don't like Onwenu but he is an above average guard on a top 10 OL this season. Finding good starting OL is not easy.

Owenu has more than that. Where did you get these numbers? PFF? I don't trust PFF. They are always wrong. I have seen him give up more than one sack.

But Fries is top of the market. I would rather have the guard you could get with Fries money than Owenu. The next guard to get that money would be one of the best in the league.
 
Onwenu (10 games):

1 sack
1 hit
14 hurries
97.7 pass block efficiency (12th/49)

Fries (9 games):

1 sack
2 hits
17 hurries
96.9 pass block efficiency (33th/49)

Posters don't like Onwenu but he is an above average guard on a top 10 OL this season. Finding good starting OL is not easy.
Oh look, a PFF cultist.

Welp, I'll be on my way.

 
1. Who do we re-sign from our own FA's. There are really only 3 that matter imho. Tonga, Chaisson, and Ellis. Tonga will be 31, which would be a no-no if he hadn't done so well and earned his raise. I'd give him a 2-3 year deal with a solid raise.

Chaisson is a tougher question. He's had a "breakout" year and will likely wind up with 8-12 sacks. I think he has 6.5 now. I think he'd be an asset, but edge rushers come at a premium these days. However, I think he's kind of a one trick pony who needs to be moving on a twist or slant to be consistently effective. He's not powerful enough to just come in on his own and bull rush anyone. I'd love him back, but only if is what everyone would deem to be a "reasonable" contract. At least one of Ponder (who got a sack Sunday) or Swinson need to develop into at least a rotational rusher who can consistently provide pressure on the QB or we will need to draft one very early. Chaisson might be gone and Landry, who has been very consistent against both the pass and run, isn't going to remind anyone of TJ Watt.
1) Elliss is signed through 2026.

2) I do think that Hawkins and Hooper matter.

Hawkins is considered starting quality by Vrabel, so I think that he does project to be signed as at least a backup to hopefully be beaten out as a starter by a free agent or draftee.

Hooper is simply a solid backup. We'll sign him if we can.

3) I choose paying more than many here want to pay for Chaisson, especially if the alternative is hoping that Ponder or Swinson do well. Losing Chaisson would put a huge hole in the lineup. Landry is OK. Jennings could go at any time.
 
Hooper is clutch, and maybe more athletic than he's given credit for... but he's pretty slow, and not explosive at this point in his career. We need to keep either Henry or Hooper as the steady vet - but not smart to keep both 32 year old TE's.
We need an explosive "new-style" prototype TE to grow with.
(Draft - Klare or Royer) OR better yet (sign FA - Otton or Likely)
 
Since draft discussion has mixed in this conversation some. This for the cult of verticality.....

Elijah Sarratt is my 6'2 209lb binky in next years draft. When he played for JMU as a sophomore I watched him live in like 3 games and he abused DBs. He catches anything close to him and anything contested he wins. He can also block (a Hollins guy) and is a tough tackle. He doesnt have blazing speed but gets open or he just out muscles guys for the ball. He could be what Harry was meant to be or what Tetairo McMillen is becoming. Keep an eye on this kid....I sure hope that Pats do. He is going to be productive somewhere next year in the NFL.

2022 - St. Francis Red Flash 2023 - JMU 2024 & 2025 - Indiana Hoosiers



Video is not a highlight reel but about his journey.

 
Hooper is clutch, and maybe more athletic than he's given credit for... but he's pretty slow, and not explosive at this point in his career. We need to keep either Henry or Hooper as the steady vet - but not smart to keep both 32 year old TE's.
We need an explosive "new-style" prototype TE to grow with.
(Draft - Klare or Royer) OR better yet (sign FA - Otton or Likely)
Whoever the new TE is needs to be able to block and catch. If we're just signing/drafting a big WR, we have Hollins.
 
After I thought I lost all my "idle thoughts" work, I tried to ease my frustration by checking out the potential FA Market for next off season. Now there will always be a certain significant % that will resign with their present team. Others will get offers from others that will be more tempting. Still others who might rather live somewhere other than Foxboro. So, this is just a mental exercise to discuss and get us to Thursday.


1. Who do we re-sign from our own FA's. There are really only 3 that matter imho. Tonga, Chaisson, and Ellis. Tonga will be 31, which would be a no-no if he hadn't done so well and earned his raise. I'd give him a 2-3 year deal with a solid raise.

Chaisson is a tougher question. He's had a "breakout" year and will likely wind up with 8-12 sacks. I think he has 6.5 now. I think he'd be an asset, but edge rushers come at a premium these days. However, I think he's kind of a one trick pony who needs to be moving on a twist or slant to be consistently effective. He's not powerful enough to just come in on his own and bull rush anyone. I'd love him back, but only if is what everyone would deem to be a "reasonable" contract. At least one of Ponder (who got a sack Sunday) or Swinson need to develop into at least a rotational rusher who can consistently provide pressure on the QB or we will need to draft one very early. Chaisson might be gone and Landry, who has been very consistent against both the pass and run, isn't going to remind anyone of TJ Watt.


2. Who do we sign outside of the team and what positions should we target:

My first target would be Breece Hall - I think we have Stevenson under contract for the '26 season. I think he is a good enough runner, blocker, and receiver to be of value, and his cap # is reasonable. A RB room of Hall, Stevenson, Henderson, and one of Gibson, Jennings, or draft pick would be a strong unit deep and versatile. No need for a "3rd down back, since all 4 can catch and run routes well.

Hall is NOT going to sign with the Jets. Even with all those picks, even IF they hit on a good QB, it's going to be 2-3 years before they will be ready to compete and that's a lifetime to a RB. If winning is important to Hall he isn't going to be in that cesspool in NJ. In NE we have a young team, a great QB, Great coaching staff, great culture, and great owner. Boston and Providence might not be the draws that LA/Miami, or LA are, but they don't suck and not every athlete is drawn to the "club scene" and sees it as an important factor in picking where to play.


3. Beyond Hall, our next FA class should have a starting OLman. Maybe Joe Thuney would like to end his career back where it started for the next 2 years.


4. We saw tonight in impact a good edge guy makes and the Eagles deal with Miami was an instant success. The guy I'm looking for is well under 30 and will sign for 4 years. Bonito would be great, but the year he is having will put him into the Watt/Parsons range which is too rich. Boye Mafi will cost half that, yet be what we want and need. The other option is to make our first rounder an edge guy and hope he works out.


We don't need to find 6 immediate starters in FA and 5 immediate starters in the draft next year. We DO need to improve the quality of our depth and continue to add speed across the board. This year was a good start, but just a start. Just look to the Eagles. They've been to 2 Superbowls, yet are still looking to add talent whenever they can.

1) Christian Elliss is signed through 2026. He's an excellent special teamer and has proven to be a slightly above average player.
Chaisson is the new Tully Banta-Cain, imo. He shouldn't be a starter, but should see prominent time on passing downs. Both Chaisson and Landry need to be upgraded through the draft. It will be interesting to see if Ponder or Swinson will ever make the leap..

2) For RB, you need to look at a guy who can pass block. Someone to consider would be Javonte Williams who is currently in Dallas.

3) You mentioned Thuney, but he won't be a UFA until after the 2027 season. The Pats run game is hurting badly with the interior of Wilson, Bradbury and Onwenu. Bradbury has been ok as a pass blocker, but has been crap as a run blocker. Despite Run blocking supposedly being his forte. Wilson has been just a step above the garbage the Pats had at LG last year. Onwenu has some very good games in the first few weeks, but has regressed since then. But here is the rub. What is available in Free Agency currently isn't a lot.

For Center, you have 25yr old Tyler Linderbaum of the Ravens. Excellent run blocker, ok pass blocker. You have Cade Mays, currently of the Panthers who is a C/G, Connor McGovern of the Bills who is a C/G, David Edwards who is a OG. Beyond that, you have a bunch of mediocre talent that likely isn't an upgrade. Personally, I'd love for the Pats to steal Edwards of McGovern.

4) As mentioned, Bonitto has already signed a new deal with Denver through 2029. For others that are likely to be available, you have Joseph Ossai who would be an upgrade over Jennings, but not necessarily over Chaisson. Alex Wright, who may or may not be an upgrade over Chaisson. Cam Thomas, who is currently not getting a ton of snaps, but could be an upgrade over Jennings. Payton Turner, currently of the Cowboys, has been on IR due to having his ribs broken in August.

Areas to potentially look at are Safety and Coverage LB.
 
Imo I wouldn't go RB in FA. We have guys, they just need to get healthy. And there will be some interesting players in round 6 like always and we need to use the picks somewhere. I'd say save our powder for our owns guys, but get a premium long term interior OL player.

If they accomplish only those 2 things that won't be a bad free agent period.
I think we could definitely upgrade on Stevenson.

I’m all for Hall. My only concern is the Jets might tag him to keep him from signing in division.
 
Whoever the new TE is needs to be able to block and catch. If we're just signing/drafting a big WR, we have Hollins.
Dont get me wrong I really am happy to have Hollins this year but he will be 33 as the season gets underway next year. Whats your take..one maybe two more years from him? He isnt winning with speed now so I dont think thats a huge factor and the guy keeps himself in crazy great shape. I would like to see him hang around a couple years if that works for the team. If nothing else to keep some forum members panties all bunched up
 
Dont get me wrong I really am happy to have Hollins this year but he will be 33 as the season gets underway next year. Whats your take..one maybe two more years from him? He isnt winning with speed now so I dont think thats a huge factor and the guy keeps himself in crazy great shape. I would like to see him hang around a couple years if that works for the team. If nothing else to keep some forum members panties all bunched up
He seems like a great locker room guy, has a great connection with Drake and is happy to block. The Bills wanted to keep him and we outbid them. I think he's been everything we wanted for him, and as long as he stays affordable, I think we'll keep him for a couple of years while we rebuild elsewhere.
 
My evaluation:

First priority is to extend Tonga as soon as possible. I think we get him cheap if we do it now.

I think the decisions on Hawkins/Chaisson/Hooper depend on who you would target as alternatives. All three could be upgraded, but I’m also not opposed to bringing back all three.

With Hawkins, I think he’s done better than I thought as a starter, but I would love to see him in more of a 3rd safety, “Duron Harmon” type of role. On the fence with Chaisson. Like Ken said, he’s a one dimensional player. But that pass rushing ability is not always easy to find. Lastly, I like Hooper, but getting younger at TE wouldn’t be the worst idea. It’ll be a deep TE market. We can definitely weigh our options there.

Out in the FA:

RB: I think you move off Stevenson and upgrade him with a back in FA that will pair perfectly with Henderson.

WR: this will be tricky. I think we only go after a big fish that can be a true #1, or stick with what we have. No reason to replace Diggs with someone who is a trade off at best.

OL: Bradbury and Moses are still under contract, so don’t exactly want to see us sign more aging OL, unless we move off one of those guys. If they move off Bradbury and are ready for Wilson to move to C, I do like the idea of pursing a starting guard in FA. I think we should target RT in the draft on day 2.

Edge: add more depth to the room. Either back Chaisson and draft another edge prospect in day 2/ sign a cheaper vet for depth. Or spend the 1st round pick on an edge and pair him with a solid vet on reasonable money.

LB: I kinda like the depth of Gibbens/Mapu? But I think we need to upgrade the starter next to Spillane from Elliss. Go young here, whether it’s FA or draft.

CB: sign a cheaper vet at CB, draft early in day 3, or both. Could really use better depth past the top 3. Austin hasn’t worked out.

S: can resign Hawkins. I’d also like to see us swing big here on a higher end starter, at minimum depth needs addressed here.
 

Not that free agent lists are anything, but Bleacher Report's top 50 list only has 3 guards on it.

Wyatt Teller is #13 on the list. He'll be 32. Joel Bitonio is #43 on the list. He's 34 and would be playing the right side for the first time. Alijah Vera-Tucker is an intriguing injury bounce back name, but that comes with risk.

It's easy to look at a player like Will Fries who signed last year and say you'd prefer him, but Will Fries isn't a FA. If they let Onwenu go, they have to replace amongst the pool of players actually available this year. On paper, it seems scarce. Scarcity drive up demand, so these guys could be expensive. I wouldn't want to commit a big multi year deal to either of the older guys and AVT is kind of a question mark for health too. Realistically, between age and injury all 3 of them profile as guys who would sign bloated one year pillow contracts and scarcity of options + short contract term usually equals bloated cap number so the savings might not even be much compared to Ownenu.

It's also worth noting that Onwenu is the best player of our interior trio of Wilson/Bradbury/Onwenu. That doesn't mean he's great or worth his contract, but we already have $50M+ in cap space and they can create plenty more with cutting lesser contributors and restructuring some deals for core players. And it's not like we have a long list of players to re-sign, and it's not like we need to overhaul the roster like this past offseason. So not sure how much of a need we really have for cap.

IDK, I just don't see it as worth the trouble to open up a roster hole. I have to see case by case who's available for what price to really compare. if I can get a better player for cheaper on a 1 year deal for less then obviously. But if the older guys get multi years do I want to commit? As far as replacing through the draft, love that idea but I'd probably hold onto Onwenu through then because you never know if a guy you like will actually be available when you pick or maybe if there is someone you like a stud at another position falls that you prefer.
 
Ravens TE Isiah Likely is my favorite FA target for us. Replaces/upgrades Hooper for the 2 TE sets we play a lot of. Henry is older too so it allows for his role to be gradually reduced as he ages. I think he’ll fit really well with Maye throwing down the seams. Young and in his prime too.

Likely is a great player. Given Lamar’s reliance on TE I would be surprised if he makes it to the free agency. Think they will cut Andrews and give his money to Likely
 


Nope. Onwenu has been above average this year.

In that graphic Onwenu is slightly above average in pressure rate and below average in time to pressure. We should be getting more for $21 million.
 
Likely is a great player. Given Lamar’s reliance on TE I would be surprised if he makes it to the free agency. Think they will cut Andrews and give his money to Likely
Just to clarify, they don't have to cut Andrews as he's a FA himself too.

But yeah I can definitely see this. Lots of the actually desirable players will end up re-signing with their teams between now and free agency so have to add that caveat to all talks.
 
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