My Ridiculously Early Start on a 2026 Offseason Plan

[One-If-By-Sea]

Some thoughts:

1. I like your re-signings. The more I think about it, the more I lean towards re-signing Tonga, Hooper, Chaisson and Hawkins. It serves two purposes. Firstly it provides continuity to a team that has gelled quickly. Secondly, the 'must have needs list is reduced significantly. Without it, safety and EDGE are draft priorities.

2. I like CJ Allen a lot but he's too similar to Spillane for my taste. I want someone to compliment Spillane, not replace him.

3. No-one likes Lemon more than me but I just don't see the need at WR. I can see it if you want a Diggs replacement, a role for which Lemon is perfect, but you are reducing the playing time for Chism and Kyle Williams long-term and I'd like to give them a try first. I think we can wait a year on a WR.

4. I've yet to watch your other guys although Saka fits the Vrabel edge profile.

5. I agree with Mayo. As far as I'm concerned, all roads lead to Mesidor on the edge. I think he can be had on early day 3 because of his age but he's almost as productive as Bain, is excellent against the run, plays violently and you just won't want for work ethic from him.

6. If we re-sign the three defensive players above, we really aren't desperate on defense and can focus on depth and high upside developmental prospects.

7. Which leaves OL as the only part of the roster that really needs to be fixed. However, I am reluctant to put three rookies on to that OL. I think we can wait a year on RT, depending upon how they feel about Marcus Bryant, but the right side of the interior needs to be fixed desperately. We can probably go with Bradbury for another year if we really need to but I would like to get his future replacement in place.

I think we need to be a bit more aggressive than this. I think we need to sign 3 significant FAs, not 1. Depending on rookies from the draft is not ideal. Rookies should be given a year to acclimate in a healthy situation.

We need to search for another Tonga or Chaisson signing on the DL. Whoever found Chaisson and Tonga has to find a similar guy or two this year. This is not a big $ contract.

We need to replace Onwenu in FA.

Hooper needs to be replaced with a younger TE. Kittle, McBride, Hockenson, etc. are all FAs.

We also can sign a third RB to replace Gibson, Breece Hall, Ken Walker, etc. are available.

With OG, TE, and RB upgrades in FA, we can concentrate the draft on BPA like OL, coverage LB, coverage FS, and EDGE, and maybe to a lesser degree a CB.

We have to stay aggressive like in 2025 while we have Maye on a rookie deal. No need to resign guys that are not up and take up cap space - bad idea that is only being sentimental. Even borrow from the future in cap space if necessary. We need to be aggressive at least one more year. The Pats are not nearly rebuilt.

 

[manxman2601]

I think we need to be a bit more aggressive than this. I think we need to sign 3 significant FAs, not 1. Depending on rookies from the draft is not ideal. Rookies should be given a year to acclimate in a healthy situation.

We need to search for another Tonga or Chaisson signing on the DL. Whoever found Chaisson and Tonga has to find a similar guy or two this year. This is not a big $ contract.

We need to replace Onwenu in FA.

Hooper needs to be replaced with a younger TE. Kittle, McBride, Hockenson, etc. are all FAs.

We also can sign a third RB to replace Gibson, Breece Hall, Ken Walker, etc. are available.

With OG, TE, and RB upgrades in FA, we can concentrate the draft on BPA like OL, coverage LB, coverage FS, and EDGE, and maybe to a lesser degree a CB.

We have to stay aggressive like in 2025 while we have Maye on a rookie deal. No need to resign guys that are not up and take up cap space - bad idea that is only being sentimental. Even borrow from the future in cap space if necessary. We need to be aggressive at least one more year. The Pats are not nearly rebuilt.

I'm not opposed to signing FAs as long as they stick to the plan. I'm just not a scout of current NFL players and don't have the knowledge to know who is best. If they have the money then fine, I just thing FA tends to mean over-payment for players. I'd rather get my talent through the draft. It's not the quick fix but it does tend to lead to longer-term success.

As for finding another Tonga, why? We already have him and he wouldn't be that expensive to re-sign. He's been outstanding for us.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

As for finding another Tonga, why? We already have him and he wouldn't be that expensive to re-sign. He's been outstanding for us.

It is a generic comment. We do not need another Tonga, I agree. I think I said another Tonga and Chaisson meaning another 1 or 2 defensive linemen. Clearly someone in the Pats scouting and management team can identify future DL that will emerge. What about Durden and Ponder? Did we luckily identify Chaisson, Tonga, Durden, and Ponder? Or does someone on the Pats recruting team have an eye for DL talent? Use that skill to sign two more DL up and coming stars. Hopefully two more EDGE guys.

Contiue to do what the team has proven to be exceptional at. Can the same team identify a TE? Lets hope so, but who knows. What we do know is that the Pats recruting team can find DL talent, so let's let them do that, whether in FA of the draft. Let them find a FS in FA or the draft. For FA let's get a TE to replace Hooper, an OG to replace Onwenu, and a RB to replace Gibson. Then it is BPA in the draft.

It is pedal to the metal time (that is an American phrase - sorry). We should not tread lightly, we should even borrow from future cap space to fill out the roster in 2026 and then maintain the roster and manage the cap in 2027 and beyond.

 

[captain stone]

I'm not opposed to signing FAs as long as they stick to the plan. I'm just not a scout of current NFL players and don't have the knowledge to know who is best. If they have the money then fine, I just thing FA tends to mean over-payment for players. I'd rather get my talent through the draft. It's not the quick fix but it does tend to lead to longer-term success.

As for finding another Tonga, why? We already have him and he wouldn't be that expensive to re-sign. He's been outstanding for us.

Uhhh... Backup? Short-yardage packages?

 

[captain stone]

Chaisson and Tonga extensions not getting any cheaper.

Hope the Pats lock up both during the mini-bye.

If I were a GM, any vet that agreed to a 1-year contract here would then have to also agree to one with a Team option for a 2nd year... That way, in case any of them exceed expectations, we could have them available to us for at least one more season.

 

[manxman2601]

It is a generic comment. We do not need another Tonga, I agree. I think I said another Tonga and Chaisson meaning another 1 or 2 defensive linemen. Clearly someone in the Pats scouting and management team can identify future DL that will emerge. What about Durden and Ponder? Did we luckily identify Chaisson, Tonga, Durden, and Ponder? Or does someone on the Pats recruting team have an eye for DL talent? Use that skill to sign two more DL up and coming stars. Hopefully two more EDGE guys.

Contiue to do what the team has proven to be exceptional at. Can the same team identify a TE? Lets hope so, but who knows. What we do know is that the Pats recruting team can find DL talent, so let's let them do that, whether in FA of the draft. Let them find a FS in FA or the draft. For FA let's get a TE to replace Hooper, an OG to replace Onwenu, and a RB to replace Gibson. Then it is BPA in the draft.

It is pedal to the metal time (that is an American phrase - sorry). We should not tread lightly, we should even borrow from future cap space to fill out the roster in 2026 and then maintain the roster and manage the cap in 2027 and beyond.

I'm fully in favour of them finding a bunch of Tonga's in FA if they are there. I'm just not skilled enough to determine who they are which is why I focus on the draft. Draft speculation doesn't really become relevant until after FA anyway. You're not wrong, after all, that's what they largely did last off-season outside of LT.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

that's what they largely did last off-season outside of LT.

Yup. This is correct. We need to do the same thing as last season one more time before we go into "maintain" mode. It means the cost is higher for one more year.

 

[manxman2601]

I saw two mocks yesterday with Sonny Styles going close to the top 10. Like Reese and Bailey, he might be another dream we'll end up having to give up on. The value in the late first is starting to look like OG (Ioane, Pregnon, Siereveld) or WR (Bell, Concepcion, Sarratt, Boston, Brazzell). Anthony Hill and CJ Allen are the other possibilities. Maybe an EDGE rusher (R Mason Thomas?) At least for now.

 

[Clonamery]

I saw two mocks yesterday with Sonny Styles going close to the top 10. Like Reese and Bailey, he might be another dream we'll end up having to give up on. The value in the late first is starting to look like OG (Ioane, Pregnon, Siereveld) or WR (Bell, Concepcion, Sarratt, Boston, Brazzell). Anthony Hill and CJ Allen are the other possibilities. Maybe an EDGE rusher (R Mason Thomas?) At least for now.

It's just the Combine and a couple of the All Star games left to sort out the risers/fallers, etc. Refining and questions.

 

[hornetfb85]

This is what my dream team would look like:

Offense:

QB: Drake Maye, Josh Dobbs, Tommy DeVito. Fine with a late round flier if it works out.

RB: TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stephenson; Gibson/Larison off PUP; Jennings depth; fine with FA RB (Breese Hall, ) or Jardarian Price if he slips.

WR: Stephon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Williams, Mack Hollins, Pop Douglas, Efton Chism; fine with adding one in ghe draft if they slip

TE: Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper. Find some depth.

OT: Will Campbell, Morgan Moses, Marcus Bryant; Monroe Freeling/Niki Prongos/Blake Miller as starting RT for 2027.

IOL: Jared Wilson, Garrett Bradbury; Austin Siereveld/Cayden Green as starting RG; Kade Pieper/Brian Parker as starting C in 2027; Ben Brown

Defense:

DL: Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Khyris Tonga, Josh Farmer, Cory Durden, Eric Gregory

EDGE: Harold Landry, K'Lavon Chaisson, Akheem Mesidor (all roads lead to Akheem Mesidor), Bradyn Swinson, Caleb Murphy, Elijah Ponder

LB: Sonny Styles/Jake Golday, Robert Spillane, Christian Elliss, Jack Gibbens, Marte Mapu

S: Craig Woodson, Jelani McDonald/Zakee Wheatley, Keionte Scott*, Jaylinn Hawkins, John Saunders

CB: Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones, Keionte Scott* some dudes (like the late round big CB options in the draft)

Special Teams:

K: Andreas Borregales

P: Bryce Baringer

LS: Julian Ashby

Specialist: Brendan Schooler

Just looking at the defense I’m pretty much right there with you.

Re-sign: Tonga, Chaisson, Hawkins and Gibbens

Cut: Jennings and Tavai

DL: Barmore, Williams, Tonga, Farmer and Durden

Edge: Landry, Chaisson, *high draft pick*, Ponder, Swinson/Murphy

LB: Spillane, Ellis, Gibbens, *mid draft pick*, Mapu

CB: Gonzalez, Davis, Jones, *mid draft pick*, Austin/Woods/someone else

S: Woodson, Hawkins, *mid/high draft pick, Pettus/Saunders

 

[hornetfb85]

On offense I would:
Re-sign Hooper
Draft a blocking TE with some receiving upside
Draft a RB in the mid round (really like Jadarian Price)
Draft a RT in the mid rounds
Maybe look at a WR
Sign a vet starting LG and move Wilson to C. Let him battle with Bradbury.

 

[Clonamery]

On offense I would:
Re-sign Hooper
Draft a blocking TE with some receiving upside
Draft a RB in the mid round (really like Jadarian Price)
Draft a RT in the mid rounds
Maybe look at a WR
Sign a vet starting LG and move Wilson to C. Let him battle with Bradbury.

Nobody lets a good LG go. Bradbury will not win that battle, it is a foregone conclusion.

 

[BobDigital]

I think we need to be a bit more aggressive than this. I think we need to sign 3 significant FAs, not 1. Depending on rookies from the draft is not ideal. Rookies should be given a year to acclimate in a healthy situation.

We need to search for another Tonga or Chaisson signing on the DL. Whoever found Chaisson and Tonga has to find a similar guy or two this year. This is not a big $ contract.

We need to replace Onwenu in FA.

Hooper needs to be replaced with a younger TE. Kittle, McBride, Hockenson, etc. are all FAs.

We also can sign a third RB to replace Gibson, Breece Hall, Ken Walker, etc. are available.

With OG, TE, and RB upgrades in FA, we can concentrate the draft on BPA like OL, coverage LB, coverage FS, and EDGE, and maybe to a lesser degree a CB.

We have to stay aggressive like in 2025 while we have Maye on a rookie deal. No need to resign guys that are not up and take up cap space - bad idea that is only being sentimental. Even borrow from the future in cap space if necessary. We need to be aggressive at least one more year. The Pats are not nearly rebuilt.

I question how aggressive we can be next year. The Cap space is and looks like a lot, but they still have some hold over from bad contracts eating into it next year. Dugger, Onwenu, Stevenson (he is over paid but it isn't a complete disaster). Add in all the over pays, bad contracts and dead cap we shouldn't be paying (you always pay some) and we are easily eating 20M more than we should. And that is just next year.

The Dugger and Onwenu contracts were absolute killers...

We still need to resign our own guys and draft picks.

I mentioned Chaisson, Tonga, Hooper and Hawkins. But there are other players not on the roster that will cost more than the minimum we will want to keep just to fill out depth. Guys they will want to retain - Gibbens (LB), Tommy D (QB), Brown (OG) are all guys I think they want to bring back. And it will probably eat a few million.

Add in Extensions they should do early and that 40M+ probably of 78.5M Yes that leaves some 38M... but draft picks and emergency fund exist. They will save some cash draft wise by picking lower, but it will still probably cost 10M to sign all their picks.

That leaves 28M. And now you need to be sure you keep maybe 10M in reserve. That just about 18M to spend on other guys not already on your roster. And i think we all agree when Onwenu walks it wouldn't be a bad idea to bring a good vet in for that spot. So the amount of cash free while alot will be used up fast. In the end we need to just continue to hit on the draft and sign smart contracts from this point forward. We kind of screwed ourselves with some bad deals which hurt our ability to load up in the rookie Maye window as much as we'd like. But we can extend it out. And we should. We are seeing teams sign young QBs to longer deals with cheap years 1 and 2 to extend that window. We should too.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I question how aggressive we can be next year. The Cap space is and looks like a lot, but they still have some hold over from bad contracts eating into it next year. Dugger, Onwenu, Stevenson (he is over paid but it isn't a complete disaster). Add in all the over pays, bad contracts and dead cap we shouldn't be paying (you always pay some) and we are easily eating 20M more than we should. And that is just next year.

The Dugger and Onwenu contracts were absolute killers...

We still need to resign our own guys and draft picks.

I mentioned Chaisson, Tonga, Hooper and Hawkins. But there are other players not on the roster that will cost more than the minimum we will want to keep just to fill out depth. Guys they will want to retain - Gibbens (LB), Tommy D (QB), Brown (OG) are all guys I think they want to bring back. And it will probably eat a few million.

Add in Extensions they should do early and that 40M+ probably of 78.5M Yes that leaves some 38M... but draft picks and emergency fund exist. They will save some cash draft wise by picking lower, but it will still probably cost 10M to sign all their picks.

That leaves 28M. And now you need to be sure you keep maybe 10M in reserve. That just about 18M to spend on other guys not already on your roster. And i think we all agree when Onwenu walks it wouldn't be a bad idea to bring a good vet in for that spot. So the amount of cash free while alot will be used up fast. In the end we need to just continue to hit on the draft and sign smart contracts from this point forward. We kind of screwed ourselves with some bad deals which hurt our ability to load up in the rookie Maye window as much as we'd like. But we can extend it out. And we should. We are seeing teams sign young QBs to longer deals with cheap years 1 and 2 to extend that window. We should too.

There are various ways to spread the cap hit over multiple years. We have lots of cap space going forward and can spread 2026 signings to minimize the cap hit in Y1. We have roughly $100M of cap space in 2027 and $200M of cap space in 2028, so there is lots of cap to "borrow". Accordingly your $$ above can be easily adjusted.

 

[manxman2601]

There are various ways to spread the cap hit over multiple years. We have lots of cap space going forward and can spread 2026 signings to minimize the cap hit in Y1. We have roughly $100M of cap space in 2027 and $200M of cap space in 2028, so there is lots of cap to "borrow". Accordingly your $$ above can be easily adjusted.

A lot of that 200m will go on Maye, Gonzo and maybe Boutte. I'm guessing on an AAV basis, at least half.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

A lot of that 200m will go on Maye, Gonzo and maybe Boutte. I'm guessing on an AAV basis, at least half.

The Cap keeps rising more than expected, which is not included in the Cap website projections, so all teams push the Cap hits forward into the future. The signings are rarely even amounts per year, so the even and zero sum math used in these types of analysis is flawed.

 

[Clonamery]

The Cap keeps rising more than expected, which is not included in the Cap website projections, so all teams push the Cap hits forward into the future. The signings are rarely even amounts per year, so the even and zero sum math used in these types of analysis is flawed.

The Patriots Principle (similar to the Peter Principle), when Patriots are good the Cap Space moderates and when not so good the NFL will give more Cap Space to teams so it's easier to keep choice their FAs.

 

[manxman2601]

My draft plan for the OL.

I'm not including FA although that needs to be part of the equation providing the right person is available (ie young-ish and good).

I just don't think Jared Wilson is good enough for LG. He's our worst graded OL and while this might just be rookie trials, he hasn't looked strong enough to me. I'm not counting him as a bust after just 10 games, but I think his future lies at C or as a quality 3 way backup across the interior of the OL. I think he battles Bradbury next pre-season.

1. Unless someone like Styles is available with our 1st pick, draft a LG. Ioane and Pregnon are my preferences. I like Siereveld, Cayden Green and Carter Smith as round 2 picks if we go elsewhere in the first. I give Ioane and Pregnon the advantage because there's no position switch involved.

2. I do want an athletic OL but after our inability to run against the Bucs interior, I'm tending more towards adding more strength and power. Iapane Laloulu has experience both at center and right guard. He has an elite pass blocking grade and while his run blocking grade isn't one of the best, at 329lbs, he has the strength and size to be a people mover. Bisontis could also be a possibility although he's not as big.

3. RT is my lowest priority. Moses has played well and, touch wood, has been injury free to date which was a concern as he'd missed time in his previous seasons. I'm not opposed to drafting a RT but between Moses and Marcus Bryant, I think we can wait another year if necessary. That doesn't mean I wouldn't draft one if a BPA situation arises.

So my OL might be

Campbell - Ioane/Pregnon - Bradbury/Wilson - Laloulu - Moses

The added benefit of this would be that Wilson can still backup LG and Laloulu could back up center. I'm reluctant to have too many rookies on the OL at one time so maybe Wilson and Laloulu battle for the RG spot.

 

[mayoclinic]

Interesting, we have different plans.

1. I like Wilson's athleticism at LG, think he is developing nicely. Not opposed to moving him to C, but it's more a question of who is available to me.

2. I prefer the tackle-to-guard path over the pure guards like Ioane, Pregnon and Bisontis. I want the next Zach Martin/Peter Skoronski/Joe Thuney - a guy with a guard's build and LT feet, as Brandon Thorn described Skoronski. Siereveld and Green have that look to me.

3. I feel like RT is my highest priority. Want to nail down that long term bookend to Will Campbell. Can that wait until 2027? Maybe. But I'd really like to have that guy in place next year, to learn under Moses.

It's interesting how different our priorities and preferences are.

 

[mayoclinic]

Manx, would you be interested if Alijah Vera-Tucker hits FA? Elite athleticism and upside, but injury prone - which is the main thing that would let him reach FA in the first place.

OL Scouting Notebook - Week 6

I will be studying and grading the offensive line for Bleacher Report’s coverage of the 2021 NFL Draft.

trenchwarfare.substack.com

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2931588-alijah-vera-tucker-nfl-draft-2021-scouting-report-for-new-york-jets-ol