Patriots Pregame Thread Titans Fire Head Coach Brian Callahan / Week 7 Pregame Discussion

[mgteich]

we have games coming up against 5 of the bottom six

 

[mgteich]

Great to see Keion White as a full participant this week. The pass rush needs to get back to full throttle and in synch to keep the train rolling down the tracks. Now they're defending 1st place in the division and there's no reason to let some QB have a big game that could derail this.

We aren't "full throttle" with White replacing Landry.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Since folks were mentioning the “interim HC bump”

Since 2000, interim coaches are 6-17 when making their debut against a team with a winning record, per NFL Research. The average point differential of -7.9 suggests the replacement leaders are keeping their teams motivated but aren't providing the performance boost most expect from interim coaches.

Mike McCoy to lead Titans vs. Patriots on Sunday: Is interim coach bump real? What the data shows

 

[Patjew]

Yeah, it didn’t knock my socks off either from the outside but I think the inside is going to be very nice. It’s right next to downtown and a pedestrian bridge away from broadway. In that way it beats foxboro to me. Every time I think about going up to foxboro, it’s kind of a pain to get too. This is easy, so they have that going for them. I’ll enjoy watching the Pats come down here and whipping ass though.

I love stadiums that are built into a downtown area. It gives the area and the stadium so much more character, in my opinion.

 

[Sciz]

Dang, they think they need inside information just to beat the Titans.

(I think that’s a joke. He was oddly signed to the active roster last week despite being inactive, which meant getting him back to the PS required allowing other teams to recruit him to their PS instead.)

 

[Bill Lee]

I love stadiums that are built into a downtown area. It gives the area and the stadium so much more character, in my opinion.

True on game day, but the rest of the time in many cases they are like giant mausoleums right in the middle of a city.

Some teams do a good job of building in a "fan experience" area with shops etc so it's not so dead when there is no game to be played.

Other teams don't bother and IMO that sucks.

 

[Zoomnbyu]

And in the dark, a hole's a hole...

- Michael Donovan

As my best friend told me circa a Denny's in 1987 "it's not the face you F&^%, its the F&^% you face."

 

[KCSVEN]

According to OddsShark, Over the last 10 years: 35–69 (~ 33.7 %).​

​

But that doesn't affect whether the three-game road trip effect is a major or a minor factor. The data says "major".

35-69 straight up, and 46-55-3 against the spread. Straight up is irrelevant because it doesn't take into account the two teams playing. Removing the ties, IN 101 games you'd expect 50.5 to cover, 46 of them did. 9% less is the difference. It's only like 4-5 games out of 100 away from being completely meaningless.

Patriots are favored by 7 and have a 45% chance of covering the spread based on history.

The BIG issue is the sample size is tiny, there are 272 games in a season and over a decade we only have around 100 games to sample, not even half a season worth of data.

PLUS there are so many questions on the data set: how did teams fare that WON the first 2 road games? How did home teams fare that were ranked 30-32 in all power rankings and DVOA? Could go on and on. Patriots rank 11 in Offense DVOA and Titans 32. Since offense has shown to be more likely to result in wins, which of the historical teams had a huge edge in offense and still lost?

To compare this data to the Patriots and Titans you need to adjust the sample size and may find there are only 10 games that apply to this particular scenario? Maybe? Hard to tell but already the sample size is too small and now you need to make it smaller.
It's just not meaningful and the only data that could account for some of this, though not all of it, is against the spread. And it's about a 9% edge to the home team. An advantage but seems pretty small.

 

[Mike the Brit]

35-69 straight up, and 46-55-3 against the spread. Straight up is irrelevant because it doesn't take into account the two teams playing. Removing the ties, IN 101 games you'd expect 50.5 to cover, 46 of them did. 9% less is the difference. It's only like 4-5 games out of 100 away from being completely meaningless.

Patriots are favored by 7 and have a 45% chance of covering the spread based on history.

The BIG issue is the sample size is tiny, there are 272 games in a season and over a decade we only have around 100 games to sample, not even half a season worth of data.

PLUS there are so many questions on the data set: how did teams fare that WON the first 2 road games? How did home teams fare that were ranked 30-32 in all power rankings and DVOA? Could go on and on. Patriots rank 11 in Offense DVOA and Titans 32. Since offense has shown to be more likely to result in wins, which of the historical teams had a huge edge in offense and still lost?

To compare this data to the Patriots and Titans you need to adjust the sample size and may find there are only 10 games that apply to this particular scenario? Maybe? Hard to tell but already the sample size is too small and now you need to make it smaller.
It's just not meaningful and the only data that could account for some of this, though not all of it, is against the spread. And it's about a 9% edge to the home team. An advantage but seems pretty small.

You're doubling down. Let's leave it there.

 

[The Brandon Five]

we have games coming up against 5 of the bottom six

As well as #1, #5 and #10, but they already beat #4 and #7.

 

[patfanken]

After giving it some thought and factoring the 3rd road trip in a row, the fired coach bump, and the one step back after 3 steps forward syndrome there is STILL no way the Pats are going to lose this game even if the passing game takes a small step back this week, UNLESS we have a massive TO game (-3 or more). From what I have been gleaning they DO have a competitive D, but a bottom of the league O.

The things I'd like to see on Sunday.

1. An improvement in the running game. Nothing spectacular. Just something north of 125yds and 2 or 3 plays over 10yds. It's a low bar, but it is going to take some time, given the circumstances, but an "improvement" is necessary to give us hope that it will get better as everyone gets more comfortable with the offense and each other.

2. Maye to continue his good play and pocket presence. I'm not looking for "improvement", that will come with more reps year to year, but while some back sliding is inevitable consistently good QB play is the keystone of having an offense you can rely on. Like I said, the only way we lose this game is if we give it away, and Maye has the keys to the car.

3. Improved OL play. Last week wasn't the best look for our OL, outside of pass blocking. They acknowledged it. Let's see if that translates into a more efficient game for them all.

4. A little more active defense and pass rush. This is game to work on some of those run twists, overloads, and blitz packages. Perhaps play a little more man coverage against an inept offense. Bury them from the start and take their heart. Is that too much to ask. Anything more than 13 points will be a disappointment to me. Any less than 24 points will be a disappointment to me.


Is this too much to ask????

 

[Bill Lee]

As my best friend told me circa a Denny's in 1987 "it's not the face you F&^%, its the F&^% you face."

That's a great one!

A similar one:

Circa 1980 a fellow college freshman told me "they're all good f---ing, but they're all no f---ing good!"

Hope he found a more wholesome relationship later in life, but I doubt it.

This was right before the AIDS crisis broke out so he was right, they were all good f---ing...

 

[Mike the Brit]

So I was at an event yesterday at Gillette stadium where many different vendors in MA/NE had booths on the club level of Gillette Stadium. At one point a Gillette employee came and yelled out "everyone put your phones away, no pictures".

The team came out and did their walkthrough practice for an hour. It was no pads. Obviously everyone was watching.

Funniest thing was, Vrabel literally took every single snap at linebacker for like a half hour.

INSIDER INFORMATION OF THE SEASON.

Thank you, sir!

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Dang, they think they need inside information just to beat the Titans.

(I think that’s a joke. He was oddly signed to the active roster last week despite being inactive, which meant getting him back to the PS required allowing other teams to recruit him to their PS instead.)

Check out this play:



And he can block!

 

[Patjew]

True on game day, but the rest of the time in many cases they are like giant mausoleums right in the middle of a city.

Some teams do a good job of building in a "fan experience" area with shops etc so it's not so dead when there is no game to be played.

Other teams don't bother and IMO that sucks.

That's true. I just like the way they look from the highway and airplanes.

 

[TommyD4207]

Our QB would also like to set things straight down there I'm fairly certain, his end-of-regulation heroics notwithstanding.

There's no universe where they should have lost the game there last year. Complete coach mismanagement.

 

[maust]

There's no universe where they should have lost the game there last year. Complete coach mismanagement.

Umm there was at least the one.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Thursday, October 16, 2025

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS​

DID NOT PARTICIPATE
LB Harold Landry III, Ankle
CB Charles Woods, Knee
LIMITED PARTICIPATION
WR Stefon Diggs, Chest
S Jaylinn Hawkins, Hamstring
LB Anfernee Jennings, Ankle
LB Marte Mapu, Neck
OT Morgan Moses, Hip
FULL PARTICIPATION
DT Christian Barmore, Not Injury Related / Other
CB Christian Gonzalez, Hamstring
DE Keion White, Elbow

Week 7 Injury Report: Patriots at Titans

 

[Mack Herron]

I wish Landry a speedy recovery. Not sure how I feel about Moses.

 

[dliverey44]

Great to see Keion White as a full participant this week. The pass rush needs to get back to full throttle and in synch to keep the train rolling down the tracks. Now they're defending 1st place in the division and there's no reason to let some QB have a big game that could derail this.

Ummm Keion White is like standing on the brake and then putting on the E brake. I hope white figures it out, but right now I will take Chaisson every day and the entire game on Sundays.