Have We Ever Had A Weaker Schedule; 2 games remain against teams in the top 20 (NFL PR).

[Triumph]

 

[jmt57]

Being favored to win X number of games does not equal that team should/will win same X number of games.
That's not how probability and statistics work.

Let's say that for each of the next 30 days, there is a 52-55% chance of rain.
That does not mean it will/should rain every day for the next 30 days.

If at team has a 70% chance of winning each of ten specific games, then they should go 7-3 in those games, not 10-0.

Another example: a team being an underdog every single game is far more likely to go 4-13 than 0-17.

There's always going to be a WTF game, though perhaps the Patriots already got that out of the way in week one.

That being said, looking at the quality of this team versus the quality of the next 12 opponents, then yes, the 2025 Patriots absolutely do have an excellent chance to be in the postseason.

 

[Brotherblues]

Ravens are bonafide top 10 when healthy. Just brutal what they've had to face in schedule plus injuries. They should have Lamar and others back for our game and they'll be with their backs against the wall for their playoffs chances.

Counting them as trash out of the top 20 is inaccurate.

A lot can change with other matchups too. Flacco could stabilize the Bengals to be respectable.

Falcons and Saints are also closer to middle of the pack than the bottom.

The schedule is still weak, but t's unlikely to end up as extreme as it looks right now.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Ravens are bonafide top 10 when healthy. Just brutal what they've had to face in schedule plus injuries. They should have Lamar and others back for our game and they'll be with their backs against the wall for their playoffs chances.

Counting them as trash out of the top 20 is inaccurate.

A lot can change with other matchups too. Flacco could stabilize the Bengals to be respectable.

Falcons and Saints are also closer to middle of the pack than the bottom.

The schedule is still weak, but t's unlikely to end up as extreme as it looks right now.

Yep that ravens game is a complete wildcard. Theyre either going to be playing well again and fighting for their playoff lives which would make it an incredibly tough game at their place.


Or if the struggles continue theyll be out of it by then and if Lamar gets the slightest bit banged up he might start getting very conservative with suiting up like towards the end in 21 and 22.

 

[patfanken]

Defining teams as "weak" or strong is so subjective, especially this early in the season. At the start of the season, WE would have been lumped into the "easy game" category. The fact is that we know as NFL fans that "on any given Sunday..." is NOT just an adage, it's a fact. All those years when WE were dominant, and the Jets and Bills were doormats and we'd finish 4-2 in the division or escaping out of those division games by the skin of our teeth. EVERY team has 53 VERY good football players to start with.

It is so easy to look at that schedule and think at this moment, "how can we not win 12 games with that schedule". So many winnable games. But these games are NOT played in a vacuum, and things can change in an instant with the tear of an ACL. It is SO much easier to think of each game as an isolated event. One game seasons, and all those other cliches. There are so many unexpected things that happen each game like great/bad bounces, calls, deflections, etc that results are EXTREMELY difficult to predict. If it were easy, we'd all be making our living as professional gamblers. In fact if it were easy, it wouldn't make financial sense for someone to set the odds.

What we know for certain at this point is that THIS team will have a solid chance to win every game they play this season, just as they will have a chance to lose if we don't play near to our potential and leave it that and talk more about the football aspects of the game.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Ravens ranking is definitely wonky when you consider injuries but there's no need for everyone to harp on that and belabor the one point. The LARGER point still stands that our schedule is about as favorable as you could hope for. And that's not new. It's been the biggest reason many have believed we could push for the playoffs, even before the seasons tarted and we've seen:

1) Diggs having an abnormal recovery,
2) Will Campbell playing so well right away which I think probably is exceeding expectations of some of his bigger supporters who might have foresaw some acclimation period, and
3) Maye progressing even beyond what I think a lot of his biggest proponents saw

The weak schedule on top of those things have us in a spot where it's probably a disappointment if we DON'T make the playoffs now. At the same time, LV and MIA are bad teams and we split with them playing tight games both times. Heck, I even think PIT's rating is inflated and we lost to them. Last two weeks of actually throttling a bad team in CAR and then beating a good team in BUF are encouraging, but this team hasn't proven themselves immune to losing to bad teams yet either.

 

[PatsFan2]

We've played or will play
PITT (now 15th)
BUF (3)
BUF (3)
TB (4)
===
with 12 games left, only TB and BUF are top 20 teams.
Even if we lose those, that's only 4 total losses.
It seems that we could expect to have a good chance of the playoffs and still lose as many as 3 of the rest, obviously possible.
Of course, one game at a time!

Pittsburgh well in that drivers seat for the AFC North if you haven't noticed.

 

[slam]

Per Aaron Schatz, going by this year's DVOA, the Pats have the easiest schedule any team has had since 1999.

I believe that. It's the "easiest" schedule I can ever remember seeing anyone have.

 

[TheRainMaker]

This was why many predicted the Pats would make the playoffs this season. Overall, the league is trash and the Pats have a favorable schedule. If they only win half their remaining games, they will be 9-8. This is their opportunity to right the wrong earlier this season against LV and Pitt to beat up on some mediocre teams before they play at Tampa Bay.

Ravens and Rams are playing for a lot Sunday. Ravens are pretty much done and they really won't come back from being 1-5. Pats path to the playoffs has become a lot easier with predicted playoff teams such as the Ravens, Bengals and Chargers imploding while the Chiefs, Texans and Broncos are hanging around.

SNF was a massive win for the Patriots playoff outlook.

 

[jmt57]

The reason why we don't remember having such an 'easy' schedule is that it has been a quarter century since the Patriots had a halfway decent team combined with a last place schedule.

2024 doesn't qualify because (a) Jerod Mayo, and (b) those other last place teams on that schedule were Cincy (4th place despite a 9-8 record) and the Chargers (new coach, and had vastly underperformed the previous year to finish 4th).

 

[Since1960]

Before putting our heads on our pillows tonight dreaming about our weak schedule and our second trip to New Orleans this year in February, remember two things.

1) The also 4-13 Raiders we played in the first game have ONE win this year against you know who, and you know where!

2) This is the NFL where games are won & lost by a fraction of an inch or a split second of time as determined by gentlemen in striped shirts calling incompletions on plays that 5 years ago would have been completions without the need of a review, or calling a first down on the placement of a ball after a run that looked more like a rugby scrum.

At the start of the season, if *anyone* stated that after 5 games the Pats would have a better record than the Chiefs, we would have inquired what planet that had arrived from, and where could you buy a ticket to get there..

Regardless of what we perceive as a “weak” schedule, history/luck/fate tells us nit to be surprised if we go 3-0 or 0-3 these next 3 games!

Now, if we go 3-0 please send Get Well Cards to my local Hospital where I’ll be recovering from a severe case if excessive optimism!

 

[Real fan 02]

We've played or will play
PITT (now 15th)
BUF (3)
BUF (3)
TB (4)
===
with 12 games left, only TB and BUF are top 20 teams.
Even if we lose those, that's only 4 total losses.
It seems that we could expect to have a good chance of the playoffs and still lose as many as 3 of the rest, obviously possible.
Of course, one game at a time!

I'm condeding the loss to Buffalo.. so there's 1 loss.. I believe we can beat TB.. they aren't Buffalo wich I still believe is the best team in the AFC.. TB doesn't present any of the challenges that Allen presents at the qb position. Why should we fear them?

You'd like to think we got the clunkers out with LV and Pittsburgh this season. If Jackson is playing and that Ravens teams healthy maybe Baltimore could be another loss? So there's 2..

These next string of games are all winnable games. If we are truly a better team then we take care of business and win these and compile some wins.

 

[Real fan 02]

2011 was an incredibly weak schedule. 2010 too.

14-2 & 13-3 seasons as well..

 

[p8ryts]

I'll wait until the season is over before I evaluate it's difficulty.

 

[Real fan 02]

This was why many predicted the Pats would make the playoffs this season. Overall, the league is trash and the Pats have a favorable schedule. If they only win half their remaining games, they will be 9-8. This is their opportunity to right the wrong earlier this season against LV and Pitt to beat up on some mediocre teams before they play at Tampa Bay.

Ravens and Rams are playing for a lot Sunday. Ravens are pretty much done and they really won't come back from being 1-5. Pats path to the playoffs has become a lot easier with predicted playoff teams such as the Ravens, Bengals and Chargers imploding while the Chiefs, Texans and Broncos are hanging around.

SNF was a massive win for the Patriots playoff outlook.

Agreed. They have everything laid out in front of them. When they don't continue to beat themselves they give themselves a shot to win. Riding high on confidence, belief in Vrabel and most importantly Drake showing himself he can go toe to toe with an elite QB.

I Ask the question why should this team fear TB.? by all means they are a solid team but they aren't in the class of the bills in my opinion. I mean Mayfield is a good QB but he's not on the level of Allen or Mahomes. This team doesn't need a let down.. barring any major health with key guys.. they need to take care of these next 3 games and continue on the upwards trend.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Saints are not a pushover at home. I hope the team is not as overconfident as the posters here.

NO is a great test for us. They gave the Bills all they could handle, then beat the Giants who had a little momentum from the week before. Rattler is a dangerous QB. They're kinda sick of losing too, and I don't think we've had a good history against them. This game will be challenging.

 

[Real fan 02]

Pittsburgh well in that drivers seat for the AFC North if you haven't noticed.

Buffalo was and still remains the standard in the division and the AFC.. this team can beat anyone on thier schedule..

 

[Real fan 02]

NO is a great test for us. They gave the Bills all they could handle, then beat the Giants who had a little momentum from the week before. Rattler is a dangerous QB. They're kinda sick of losing too, and I don't think we've had a good history against them. This game will be challenging.

6TD 1INT 67% completion %... for rattler.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Funny you kept dismissing this all summer when I said it.

The schedule has always been our ace in the hole. The minute I saw it I thought it set our floor at 9 wins, and it's only gotten better watching so many of these teams perform badly so far. Too many people were stuck comparing us to last year's win total, but this team is not only much different but the stars aligned to give us many cupcake games (though we still have to play well to win them).

 

[tasmlab]

In peak BB/TB times, some of us would've worried about the easy schedule making the team too soft for the playoffs. (Now we have eggs to count after they hatch, so to speak)