2026 Draft: Safety

[manxman2601]

Caleb Downs or bust?

 

[mayoclinic]

The Oregon kid, Thienemann, may have legit 4.3 speed and side to side range.

But Downs is getting Eric Berry comparisons. Best S prospect since at least Kyle Hamilton. Gonzalez-Downs secondary would be elite.

 

[mayoclinic]

With thee release of Jabrill Peppers, demotion of Kyle Dugger, move of Marte Mapu to LB, and drafting and emergence of Craig Woodson, it seems clear that Vrabel values S with CB range. Have to think that Downs or Thienemann would be attractive options.

 

[Clonamery]

Someone to watch:

Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, 6-3, 210. Toledo.

 

[manxman2601]

Take note for next spring.

 

[manxman2601]

To compare and contrast, tackle rates last season:

Craig Woodson - 8 missed tackles, 8.6% missed tackle rate.

Selected 2025 Prospects in 2024

Caleb Downs - 10, 10.5

Michael Taafe - 19, 21.3

Dillon Thieneman - 15, 12.8

Kamari Ramsey - 15, 20.8

Keon Sabb - 6, 14.0

Rod Moore - Didn't Play

Tao Johnson - 13, 16.3

Clearly Michael Taafe and Kamari Ramsey need to improve this year.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

To compare and contrast, tackle rates last season:

Craig Woodson - 8 missed tackles, 8.6% missed tackle rate.

Selected 2025 Prospects in 2024

Caleb Downs - 10, 10.5

Michael Taafe - 19, 21.3

Dillon Thieneman - 15, 12.8

Kamari Ramsey - 15, 20.8

Keon Sabb - 6, 14.0

Rod Moore - Didn't Play

Tao Johnson - 13, 16.3

Clearly Michael Taafe and Kamari Ramsey need to improve this year.

Looks like Woodson might have been a steal.

 

[manxman2601]

Looks like Woodson might have been a steal.

I know I mentioned it a number of times, but Woodson, at least according to PFF grading, had one of the great seasons amongst safeties in the last five years. Not only in run defense but in pass defence too.

 

[dliverey44]

I loved the Woodson pick when they made it. I came in here to see the opinions of our esteemed fan base and the majority of people hated it.

 

[manxman2601]

Just a thought on safety value in the draft first round with regards to Caleb Downs.

2025 - Malaki Starks - Pick 27. don't forget that for much of the draft process he was considered a consensus top 10 pick.

2024 - Zero
2023 - Zero (Brian Branch in the 2nd)
2022 - Kyle Hamilton - pick 14
2021 - Zero (Jevon Holland in the 2nd)
2020 - Zero
2019 - Two but not until pick 19
2018 - Minkah Fitzpatrick - pick 11, Derwin James - pick 17

It's not unreasonable to suppose that Downs falls out of the top 10.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's also possible that Dillon Thieneman fits what Vrabel wants in a safety more than Caleb Downs.

3 areas the Pats could target in the 2026 are "devalued" positions: S, TR, and OC. Not impossible that some 1st round talents could slip into the 32-40 range.

 

[manxman2601]

It's also possible that Dillon Thieneman fits what Vrabel wants in a safety more than Caleb Downs.

3 areas the Pats could target in the 2026 are "devalued" positions: S, TR, and OC. Not impossible that some 1st round talents could slip into the 32-40 range.

I presume you mean TE and I absolutely agree that both TEs and centers could fall into the 2nd. It's interesting that after two games, the top two rated TEs, Sadiq and Klare, have 3 and 2 receptions only. Hardly setting the league alight so far.

 

[mayoclinic]

Nick Emmanwori another good example. Seattle traded up from 50 to 35 to get him.

Gotta assume as of now we will have 2 top 50 picks, if not top 40. Could definitely look to tradevup if needed to get a Thieneman, Lew, Klare or Charles if available in early round 2. Pair any of those with a top 10-15 DL prospect, and you would have a nice draft.

 

[manxman2601]

More arguments for a coverage safety.

 

[manxman2601]

Dillon Thieneman, Oregon, 6-0, 205lbs

I like to find those trigger words and phrases that tell me someone is a good Vrabel fit. Here's the Thieneman summary from Draft Buzz. As an aside, as noted previously, only Downs beat Thieneman on missed tackles amongst leading draft safeties. Mayoclinic is, rightly, a big fan and while a top 15 selection is probably too rich for him, hoping he falls to round two (he's a safety so certainly possible) and then trading up would be a decent strategy.

SCOUTING REPORT: STRENGTHS​

• Rare athletic profile with elite speed at 207 pounds translates to explosive closing burst when breaking on underneath routes or crashing downhill against the run.
• 
  
• Elite diagnostic abilities paired with film-room obsession - consistently puts himself in perfect position before plays develop and rarely gets manipulated by quarterback eye discipline.
• 
  
• Violent tackler with outstanding technique who brings bad intentions - rips through ball carriers with explosive hip rotation and consistently drives through contact point with proper leverage.
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• Displays exceptional ball tracking and hand-eye coordination in coverage, showing natural receiver-like ability to adjust to the ball and high-point contestable throws.
• 
  
• Remarkable processing speed allows him to trigger downhill immediately against screen game and outside runs - arrives with vapor trails and nasty intentions when he diagnoses quickly.
• 
  
• Positional versatility to thrive in multiple roles - has shown effectiveness as deep third safety, split-field coverage, robber, and even handled slot coverage responsibilities against tight ends.
• 
  
• True alpha mentality on the field who plays with contagious passion and aggression - brings the kind of dog you want from a defensive tone-setter.
• 
  
• Demonstrated elite football character with obsessive preparation habits - first-in, last-out mentality with legendary workout and film study dedication that teammates consistently reference.

Dillon Thieneman Safety Oregon | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 86.7 Rank: #6 Forty: 4.35 Thieneman is the kind of safety who walks into a defensive meeting room on Day One and immediately earns his keep. The coverage grades speak loudly, but wh...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

 

[mayoclinic]

I am a fan.

Probably better fit for what Vrabel seems to want than Downs.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would also highlight:

Violent tackler with outstanding technique who brings bad intentions

Positional versatility to thrive in multiple roles

 

[manxman2601]

Take note for next spring.

Looks like Woodson might have been a steal.

I loved the Woodson pick when they made it. I came in here to see the opinions of our esteemed fan base and the majority of people hated it.

2nd best run defence grade amongst all NFL safeties in week one.

 

[mayoclinic]

Dreaming of a 10 year Woodson-Thieneman S duo. Would cover a lot of ground.

 

[manxman2601]

Someone to watch:

Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, 6-3, 210. Toledo.

you're not the only one to like him. Will have to look into him.