Generally agree except there is the twofold aspect of 1) the incumbency advantage of being able to resign your own players, sometimes at a discount, and 2) because of #1 the best players tend to get locked up, making the actual players available as FA to be a step down most of the time, and thus less likely to work out for the new team — especially when the incumbent team knows exactly his player’s full strengths, weaknesses, and motivations while the new team may not.
This is on the whole; we know on a case by case basis the results will and have differed (can’t exactly say the Dugger, Onwenu, or Bourne resignings from last year worked out well).
Point is, there is still a small residual effect from the 2020 and earlier drafts. But the real problems are the 2021 and forward drafts (2023 excepted to this point).