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OT - Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 Breakdown
Continuing my series on Potential WC teams, lets talk about the Steelers. They finished 16th in PPG on offense/23rd in YPG and 8th in PPG on defense/16th in YPG.
Notable players on Offense
Wilson was the main QB, but Fields also started 6 games to start the year. Their top pass catchers were Pickens as the clear #1. Freiermuth the TE with 650. Calvin Austin with 550. Then RBs Warren and Harris each caught around 300 yards. No young players to mention from the guys who played. Mike Williams was a disappointment and clearly a part of their plans.
For RBs it was the Harris and Warren show with Harris getting near 1050 and Warren getting 511. Then you have both QBs putting up some yards, much more than anyone else did.
Their OL for the year was (in order Right tackle to left tackle) Dan Moore, Mason McCormick, Zach Fraizer, Isaac Seumalo and Broderick Jones. Troy Fautanu their 20th overall pick was suppose to be their RT but he went down very early sadly. Dan Moore had a solid year at RT. Not great, not bad but a solid starter. McCormick was Subpar his rookie year. Frazier was an excellent rookie center. Seumalo was a good clearly starting level vet guard for them. Jones their second year OT was the weak link here... not horrible, didn’t play up to a starting level. He was a little better his rookie year. So clearly a lot of youth and potential upside.
Notable players on Defense
Starting with the DL is the seemingly ageless Cameron Heyward. Keaanu is the starting NT and Ogunjobi played a fair amount of snaps too. Loudermilk played some but not a huge amount. Then some guys played a few here and there. Overall between all the snaps I’d be surprised if they had 3 ‘true linemen in at all times. This goes to show the blurred lined between Edge/DE/OLB who in reality played a lot on the DL. Cameron of course is the star of the unit. Keaanu though listed as NT is not very heavy and a very good young player. Ogunjobi was not really a true starter level last year. IDK if it is partly age or maybe he was just never all that good, he wasn’t horrible or anything though. Loudermilk was fairly average.
Now starting with OLB/DE/EDGE. The unit’s headliner is Watt. But the unsung hero is Alex Highsmith who is his running mate who absolutely wrecks games as well. Both played near or on the line often. Particularly Watt. Herbig is their main sub and a really good pass rush specialist. This Edge unit is absolutely insane. I also need to mention Preston Smith who they traded for half way through the year. They played him more at OLB which is not his spot and he didn’t do well for them there.
Inside isn’t bad either. Queen made the probowl last year. Enough said. Wilson Payton is the guy next to him. He is more their coverage guy while Queen cleans up middle. The immortal Elandon Roberts backed them up : ). And you know how he is. Career backup, but no doubt just happy to be a part of this incredibly well built and talented LB unit across the board.
At CB was Joey Porter and the main outside guy. Donte Jackson was the #2. And Beanie Bishop the nickel. IDK is i can say anyone stepped up as the clear back up in this unit. Porter had a sophmore slump it seems, but i think a lot of that was trying to make up for his bad running mates. Donte Jackson’s bad play may have had something to do with it? Who knows. Bishop appeared subpar in his role too.. But when the entire unit plays bad usually something was going so wrong in one area it effected other things. Could that be the case here? IDK.
At Safety FitzPatrick held it together back there as best he could. Still one of the best at his spot. Deshon Elliot played well next to him. Their main back up Damontae Kazee played like a typical back up. Not good, but not so bad things fell apart.
FA Gains - Rodgers - QB, Rudolph - QB, Metcalf - WR, Darius Slay - CB, Malik Harris - LB, Juan Thornhill - S Robert Woods - WR, Brandin Echols - CB
FA Losses - Wilson - QB, Fields - QB. Pickens - WR, Moore - LT, Preston Smith - Edge, Daniels - RG, Ogunjobi - DL, Jackson - CB, Harris - RB, LB, Elandon Roberts, Mike Williams - WR
A lot to talk about here. While it seems pretty obvious to me the Steelers lost more than they gained overall talent wise unless you are a big believer in Rodgers (I'm not. I think he will do okay-ish maybe, but not better than Wilson at this point and Rudolph isn’t any better a backup than Fields) but I don’t think they are automatically as bad off as the loses vs gains suggest.
Losing a quality RT like Moore should hurt, but they have a young highly drafted guy coming in to take that spot. Daniels again is a quality RG, but he was the backup anyway. Smith is a good player, but he isn’t good at OLB and isn’t an ideal DE for them in their system. Still a decent player, but a bad fit. He did okay in his role though but was expensive depth. Losing Harris as the work horse back will matter. But he never was a high YPA guy. And while quantity is nice, without quality to go along with it i believe it to be very replaceable. And Jackson wasn’t that good. Probably a low level starter in a different scheme, but not that good.
Also Metcalf > Pickens. Though not by too much. But every little bit matters in your ace. So while they lost depth and talent on the whole, i question how much it will hurt them if they stay healthy. The only spot there was a clear loss was on the DL with Ogunjobi, and he is only an okay depth piece.
Slay is a big get for them even if he is 34. We will talk more about that in the wrap up, but a nice win there. It is questionable how much Thornhill can do at this point.
Now for the draft.
Derrick Harmon - DT at pick 21 was one of the best players on the board at the time and should be a good player for them and helps at a spot they needed it. Great pick most likely. The only question mark is his single year of solid production.
At pick 83 is RB Kaleb Johnson. I’m okay on it, but not excited. I know a lot of sources i like have him higher, but he can’t pass catch much and his acceleration is very questionable. He is thought of as high because of his top speed in pads (if he ever gets there... has a 4.57 40, but was clocked at 22MPH on the field.. Again, probably acceleration issues), his balance and power. I am not sold on him being particularly impactful. He may get 1K yards but i don’t think they will be a game altering 1K. A lot of sources I trust like him more, but this is the kind of RB I just don’t value much, even at pick 83.
Jack Sawyer, Edge at 123 was good value for them at that point. Nothing after this point seems likely to be helpful. A lot of questionable picks IMO.
Where do I see this team in 2025?
This is a tough one to project. First lets talk about the offense. The OL should improve a bit as it is young, but how much really? They lost A LOT of quality depth here. That is worth watching. So maybe the starters are better with the improvement they can expect from 4 players entering their second and third years (This of course assumes Fautanu is about as good as Moore if not better.... I think he can be... will he be? Maybe). There were questions about him being better on the inside that still need to be answered long term, though they seemed to have liked him enough to start him the year over Moore in 2024. So that is something. However even if their OL is better, it still shouldn’t be a top unit. Issues at RG and LT could still exist and RT might not be upgraded that much. C is already really good, how much better can he be in his 2nd year really? And LG will repeat with the vet being steady
At RB Harris is out, Johnson is in... and i think they may miss the ability of Harris to pass catch a bit. Not that he was amazing at it, but better than Johnson will be i think.
At WR they changed the top guy, but nothing else. Woods in, Williams out? Shouldn’t matter much. And while I think Metcalf is better than Pickens it is only by a bit. It will matter, but how much? the fact they didn’t address this more will hurt them. This unit improved a tad, but not much.
TE? No change. Still okay there. Pat is okay, but not a game breaker.
Now we come to QB. The back up situation has changed as well, but the real question is how good is Rodgers? Is he better than the combined Wilson/Fields were last year? Well let's look at Rodgers last year. He put up 19.9PPG (24th overall for PPG and YPG) on an offense with Adams, Garret Wilson and Breece Hall with some decent depth pass catchers behind them. He also had an okay offensive line. Maybe his OL is better by a bit this year... but not by much if at all and perhaps more importantly for him the outside of the Jets OL was the strength while the outside of the Steelers is probably the weakness.
I am left with nothing to assume except with what should be a better cast last year Rodgers look good stat wise while not producing much. So why would he do better with less now that he is a year older? He will start the year at 41 and end at 42. This isn’t just another year of decline. This could be a cliff year. He already has been trending down.
Overall I see this offense taking a step back.
This defense which was already good should improve. Harmon should instantly strengthen the DL more than making up for any loss of depth or slipping Heyward might have.
Jack Sawyer adds depth at OLB, where they really didn’t need much, but sure why not! I wonder how much it will help this year though... seems like a more down the road pick. Maybe seeing Watt is 30 and may want to be able to rest him a few more snaps? Who knows.
The biggest news though is Slay. He really solidifies a weakness they had on D. And maybe can help Porter bounce back from his sophomore season with more stability across from him. Nickle is still questionable, but this CB unit looks much better now. Yes he is older, but still seems to have something in the tank to give at a pretty high level.
Safety play should stay very solid. Thornhill is probably a bit more of a depth piece than starter at this point, but a good add to this unit none the less. This unit took a step up for sure addressing their 2 biggest weak spots without losing anything of note. Those being CB and lack of quality DL.
So assuming their O takes a step back and their D takes a step forward are they better or worse? To me this isn’t just a question if one unit got better than the other got worse. There is such a thing as diminishing returns and a straw that breaks the camels back. The Steelers tied the league in take aways last year, how many more can they expect to get with these new additions? It could be argued the D improved more than the offense took a projected step back, I would find that to be an interesting argument. But that doesn’t matter. This is a team that looks like it will be getting more out of balance. And that isn’t a good thing. Particularly when your offense is the bad unit
They also have a harder schedule this year. Last year was an odd year for them. They lost to the Colts, Cowboys and Browns. But beat the Chargers, Broncos, Ravens, Commanders and Cincy. So they were very unpredictable in who they would beat or lose to, much of it due to their imbalance. I could see that continuing even more so this year as they become more imbalanced. One week shutting a good team out and squeaking by, the next losing cause they can’t put up any points vs a bad team.
Imbalance, while it can lead to surprising outcomes at times usually leads to worse overall results - and with a harder record, I see them doing worse. They will be probably be 8-8 come the last game of the year and that game with the Ravens will determine if they are 8-9 or 9-8. All depends what the Ravens have to play for.
Continuing my series on Potential WC teams, lets talk about the Steelers. They finished 16th in PPG on offense/23rd in YPG and 8th in PPG on defense/16th in YPG.
Notable players on Offense
Wilson was the main QB, but Fields also started 6 games to start the year. Their top pass catchers were Pickens as the clear #1. Freiermuth the TE with 650. Calvin Austin with 550. Then RBs Warren and Harris each caught around 300 yards. No young players to mention from the guys who played. Mike Williams was a disappointment and clearly a part of their plans.
For RBs it was the Harris and Warren show with Harris getting near 1050 and Warren getting 511. Then you have both QBs putting up some yards, much more than anyone else did.
Their OL for the year was (in order Right tackle to left tackle) Dan Moore, Mason McCormick, Zach Fraizer, Isaac Seumalo and Broderick Jones. Troy Fautanu their 20th overall pick was suppose to be their RT but he went down very early sadly. Dan Moore had a solid year at RT. Not great, not bad but a solid starter. McCormick was Subpar his rookie year. Frazier was an excellent rookie center. Seumalo was a good clearly starting level vet guard for them. Jones their second year OT was the weak link here... not horrible, didn’t play up to a starting level. He was a little better his rookie year. So clearly a lot of youth and potential upside.
Notable players on Defense
Starting with the DL is the seemingly ageless Cameron Heyward. Keaanu is the starting NT and Ogunjobi played a fair amount of snaps too. Loudermilk played some but not a huge amount. Then some guys played a few here and there. Overall between all the snaps I’d be surprised if they had 3 ‘true linemen in at all times. This goes to show the blurred lined between Edge/DE/OLB who in reality played a lot on the DL. Cameron of course is the star of the unit. Keaanu though listed as NT is not very heavy and a very good young player. Ogunjobi was not really a true starter level last year. IDK if it is partly age or maybe he was just never all that good, he wasn’t horrible or anything though. Loudermilk was fairly average.
Now starting with OLB/DE/EDGE. The unit’s headliner is Watt. But the unsung hero is Alex Highsmith who is his running mate who absolutely wrecks games as well. Both played near or on the line often. Particularly Watt. Herbig is their main sub and a really good pass rush specialist. This Edge unit is absolutely insane. I also need to mention Preston Smith who they traded for half way through the year. They played him more at OLB which is not his spot and he didn’t do well for them there.
Inside isn’t bad either. Queen made the probowl last year. Enough said. Wilson Payton is the guy next to him. He is more their coverage guy while Queen cleans up middle. The immortal Elandon Roberts backed them up : ). And you know how he is. Career backup, but no doubt just happy to be a part of this incredibly well built and talented LB unit across the board.
At CB was Joey Porter and the main outside guy. Donte Jackson was the #2. And Beanie Bishop the nickel. IDK is i can say anyone stepped up as the clear back up in this unit. Porter had a sophmore slump it seems, but i think a lot of that was trying to make up for his bad running mates. Donte Jackson’s bad play may have had something to do with it? Who knows. Bishop appeared subpar in his role too.. But when the entire unit plays bad usually something was going so wrong in one area it effected other things. Could that be the case here? IDK.
At Safety FitzPatrick held it together back there as best he could. Still one of the best at his spot. Deshon Elliot played well next to him. Their main back up Damontae Kazee played like a typical back up. Not good, but not so bad things fell apart.
FA Gains - Rodgers - QB, Rudolph - QB, Metcalf - WR, Darius Slay - CB, Malik Harris - LB, Juan Thornhill - S Robert Woods - WR, Brandin Echols - CB
FA Losses - Wilson - QB, Fields - QB. Pickens - WR, Moore - LT, Preston Smith - Edge, Daniels - RG, Ogunjobi - DL, Jackson - CB, Harris - RB, LB, Elandon Roberts, Mike Williams - WR
A lot to talk about here. While it seems pretty obvious to me the Steelers lost more than they gained overall talent wise unless you are a big believer in Rodgers (I'm not. I think he will do okay-ish maybe, but not better than Wilson at this point and Rudolph isn’t any better a backup than Fields) but I don’t think they are automatically as bad off as the loses vs gains suggest.
Losing a quality RT like Moore should hurt, but they have a young highly drafted guy coming in to take that spot. Daniels again is a quality RG, but he was the backup anyway. Smith is a good player, but he isn’t good at OLB and isn’t an ideal DE for them in their system. Still a decent player, but a bad fit. He did okay in his role though but was expensive depth. Losing Harris as the work horse back will matter. But he never was a high YPA guy. And while quantity is nice, without quality to go along with it i believe it to be very replaceable. And Jackson wasn’t that good. Probably a low level starter in a different scheme, but not that good.
Also Metcalf > Pickens. Though not by too much. But every little bit matters in your ace. So while they lost depth and talent on the whole, i question how much it will hurt them if they stay healthy. The only spot there was a clear loss was on the DL with Ogunjobi, and he is only an okay depth piece.
Slay is a big get for them even if he is 34. We will talk more about that in the wrap up, but a nice win there. It is questionable how much Thornhill can do at this point.
Now for the draft.
Derrick Harmon - DT at pick 21 was one of the best players on the board at the time and should be a good player for them and helps at a spot they needed it. Great pick most likely. The only question mark is his single year of solid production.
At pick 83 is RB Kaleb Johnson. I’m okay on it, but not excited. I know a lot of sources i like have him higher, but he can’t pass catch much and his acceleration is very questionable. He is thought of as high because of his top speed in pads (if he ever gets there... has a 4.57 40, but was clocked at 22MPH on the field.. Again, probably acceleration issues), his balance and power. I am not sold on him being particularly impactful. He may get 1K yards but i don’t think they will be a game altering 1K. A lot of sources I trust like him more, but this is the kind of RB I just don’t value much, even at pick 83.
Jack Sawyer, Edge at 123 was good value for them at that point. Nothing after this point seems likely to be helpful. A lot of questionable picks IMO.
Where do I see this team in 2025?
This is a tough one to project. First lets talk about the offense. The OL should improve a bit as it is young, but how much really? They lost A LOT of quality depth here. That is worth watching. So maybe the starters are better with the improvement they can expect from 4 players entering their second and third years (This of course assumes Fautanu is about as good as Moore if not better.... I think he can be... will he be? Maybe). There were questions about him being better on the inside that still need to be answered long term, though they seemed to have liked him enough to start him the year over Moore in 2024. So that is something. However even if their OL is better, it still shouldn’t be a top unit. Issues at RG and LT could still exist and RT might not be upgraded that much. C is already really good, how much better can he be in his 2nd year really? And LG will repeat with the vet being steady
At RB Harris is out, Johnson is in... and i think they may miss the ability of Harris to pass catch a bit. Not that he was amazing at it, but better than Johnson will be i think.
At WR they changed the top guy, but nothing else. Woods in, Williams out? Shouldn’t matter much. And while I think Metcalf is better than Pickens it is only by a bit. It will matter, but how much? the fact they didn’t address this more will hurt them. This unit improved a tad, but not much.
TE? No change. Still okay there. Pat is okay, but not a game breaker.
Now we come to QB. The back up situation has changed as well, but the real question is how good is Rodgers? Is he better than the combined Wilson/Fields were last year? Well let's look at Rodgers last year. He put up 19.9PPG (24th overall for PPG and YPG) on an offense with Adams, Garret Wilson and Breece Hall with some decent depth pass catchers behind them. He also had an okay offensive line. Maybe his OL is better by a bit this year... but not by much if at all and perhaps more importantly for him the outside of the Jets OL was the strength while the outside of the Steelers is probably the weakness.
I am left with nothing to assume except with what should be a better cast last year Rodgers look good stat wise while not producing much. So why would he do better with less now that he is a year older? He will start the year at 41 and end at 42. This isn’t just another year of decline. This could be a cliff year. He already has been trending down.
Overall I see this offense taking a step back.
This defense which was already good should improve. Harmon should instantly strengthen the DL more than making up for any loss of depth or slipping Heyward might have.
Jack Sawyer adds depth at OLB, where they really didn’t need much, but sure why not! I wonder how much it will help this year though... seems like a more down the road pick. Maybe seeing Watt is 30 and may want to be able to rest him a few more snaps? Who knows.
The biggest news though is Slay. He really solidifies a weakness they had on D. And maybe can help Porter bounce back from his sophomore season with more stability across from him. Nickle is still questionable, but this CB unit looks much better now. Yes he is older, but still seems to have something in the tank to give at a pretty high level.
Safety play should stay very solid. Thornhill is probably a bit more of a depth piece than starter at this point, but a good add to this unit none the less. This unit took a step up for sure addressing their 2 biggest weak spots without losing anything of note. Those being CB and lack of quality DL.
So assuming their O takes a step back and their D takes a step forward are they better or worse? To me this isn’t just a question if one unit got better than the other got worse. There is such a thing as diminishing returns and a straw that breaks the camels back. The Steelers tied the league in take aways last year, how many more can they expect to get with these new additions? It could be argued the D improved more than the offense took a projected step back, I would find that to be an interesting argument. But that doesn’t matter. This is a team that looks like it will be getting more out of balance. And that isn’t a good thing. Particularly when your offense is the bad unit
They also have a harder schedule this year. Last year was an odd year for them. They lost to the Colts, Cowboys and Browns. But beat the Chargers, Broncos, Ravens, Commanders and Cincy. So they were very unpredictable in who they would beat or lose to, much of it due to their imbalance. I could see that continuing even more so this year as they become more imbalanced. One week shutting a good team out and squeaking by, the next losing cause they can’t put up any points vs a bad team.
Imbalance, while it can lead to surprising outcomes at times usually leads to worse overall results - and with a harder record, I see them doing worse. They will be probably be 8-8 come the last game of the year and that game with the Ravens will determine if they are 8-9 or 9-8. All depends what the Ravens have to play for.
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