Draft worst case has emerged for Pats at 4

[Lansdowne]

Do we fully dismiss the Colts here? They ain't exactly thrilled with Richardson. Their other QB is Daniel Jones on a backup deal.

I suppose it's possible, but I don't think it's likely. They've only seen him for 15 games so far (a valid concern) but he's only 23 going into this season and they knew he would be a project, despite throwing him into the fire right away. Richardson's style of play lends itself to injury quite a bit and Jones is there both as competition and as a fallback if/when Richardson is hurt again. I can see the Colts taking a rookie QB to be third string but this draft class lacks any special QB prospects. If the Colts do trade up for a QB that probably means they move Richardson to another team. I don't see them giving up on him just yet but it's clear Steichen is running out of patience.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The Pats screwed the pooch with that win! Now they are stuck with not getting any game changer despite drafting 4th (again). I would trade down or take Mykell Williams out of Georgia; he played all of last year on one leg. He will be a better player than Abdul in the long run.

I say stick around in case someone passes on Hunter, then hopefully someone wants to overpay for Sanders. None of the tackles are worth this high of a pick.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

With Will Campbell, I wish people could stop short handing it to "TRex arms". It's so easy to dismiss when you just do that because it sounds like a non football reason almost. But what people REALLY mean when they talk about the arms is what numerous analysts have noticed on tape... against speed rush off the edge, he lacks the length to make first contact so he reaches/leans/lunges and that leaves him open to inside counter moves sometimes. That's where the short arms come in. It's not the short arms themselves, it's the on field application of that trait that is the concern.

In college he was able to overcome that with play strength and otherwise sound technique. In the pros though, he's going to face better competition, even compared to the SEC which is a good college conference. At the EDGE position in particular, it's ripe with a lot of athletes vs. football players who wouldn't be as well equipped to take advantage of his weakness. In the pros, he'll face pass rushers who have spent more time really honing their craft and developing the counter moves. His other physical advantages over players will be less pronounced. In college, despite any flaws, he wasn't the guy teams wanted to attack. he wasn't the weak link. In the pros, if he has a weakness, coordinators are going to seek him out unlike the guys in college who would still go at his teammates more if they were trying to attack a weakness.

My concern with him is that college rushers, even the best, were simply too green/junior to take advantage of Campbell whereas in the pros they'll be able to. He can't improve his wingspan. That will always be an issue. In college he could reach/lunge to make up for that and still physically overpower opponents but in the pros that won't work. If he lunges/reaches in the pros he's going to get eaten up. He's going to have to learn to play without doing that, which is going to mean that he has to adapt to playing without making first contact on the line as much which is going to reduce the functional play strength because you don't play as strong when you don't make first contact.

Now everything isn't boom or bust. It's not like he's either going to suck or be a HOFer. There's tons of room in between the extremes. My concerns though are that with such an obvious physical deficiency, he's never going to be GREAT. He might not be a crippling liability, but I just find it hard to believe he'll ever be a huge asset at LT either. This team needs cornerstone players more than anything. They've done a decent job this offseason of adding respectability across the board but to ever be a great team again they need more guys who actually excite you to be starting for them. Guys that you can anchor your team around because they're that good.

As down as people are on this draft class, I just don't believe that there are only 2 non-QBs that will be legit assets like that. If you're worried about winning 9 games vs. 7 this year then maybe you reach for need, but I'm more concerned about the bigger picture. I want them to eventually have a team that's poised to actually compete and they'll need cornerstone players to do that. IMO, cornerstone players trump a positional weakness in that bigger picture. And they're much harder to get. I hope we aren't picking top 10 very much anymore, hopefully not at all. This is the best shot we're going to get at a cornerstone player through the draft unless we keep sucking which we all hope we don't.

 

[Grogan14]

With Will Campbell, I wish people could stop short handing it to "TRex arms". It's so easy to dismiss when you just do that because it sounds like a non football reason almost. But what people REALLY mean when they talk about the arms is what numerous analysts have noticed on tape... against speed rush off the edge, he lacks the length to make first contact so he reaches/leans/lunges and that leaves him open to inside counter moves sometimes. That's where the short arms come in. It's not the short arms themselves, it's the on field application of that trait that is the concern.

In college he was able to overcome that with play strength and otherwise sound technique. In the pros though, he's going to face better competition, even compared to the SEC which is a good college conference. At the EDGE position in particular, it's ripe with a lot of athletes vs. football players who wouldn't be as well equipped to take advantage of his weakness. In the pros, he'll face pass rushers who have spent more time really honing their craft and developing the counter moves. His other physical advantages over players will be less pronounced. In college, despite any flaws, he wasn't the guy teams wanted to attack. he wasn't the weak link. In the pros, if he has a weakness, coordinators are going to seek him out unlike the guys in college who would still go at his teammates more if they were trying to attack a weakness.

My concern with him is that college rushers, even the best, were simply too green/junior to take advantage of Campbell whereas in the pros they'll be able to. He can't improve his wingspan. That will always be an issue. In college he could reach/lunge to make up for that and still physically overpower opponents but in the pros that won't work. If he lunges/reaches in the pros he's going to get eaten up. He's going to have to learn to play without doing that, which is going to mean that he has to adapt to playing without making first contact on the line as much which is going to reduce the functional play strength because you don't play as strong when you don't make first contact.

Now everything isn't boom or bust. It's not like he's either going to suck or be a HOFer. There's tons of room in between the extremes. My concerns though are that with such an obvious physical deficiency, he's never going to be GREAT. He might not be a crippling liability, but I just find it hard to believe he'll ever be a huge asset at LT either. This team needs cornerstone players more than anything. They've done a decent job this offseason of adding respectability across the board but to ever be a great team again they need more guys who actually excite you to be starting for them. Guys that you can anchor your team around because they're that good.

As down as people are on this draft class, I just don't believe that there are only 2 non-QBs that will be legit assets like that. If you're worried about winning 9 games vs. 7 this year then maybe you reach for need, but I'm more concerned about the bigger picture. I want them to eventually have a team that's poised to actually compete and they'll need cornerstone players to do that. IMO, cornerstone players trump a positional weakness in that bigger picture. And they're much harder to get. I hope we aren't picking top 10 very much anymore, hopefully not at all. This is the best shot we're going to get at a cornerstone player through the draft unless we keep sucking which we all hope we don't.

Do you support picking Campbell at 4?
Assuming a trade down is not available

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Do you support picking Campbell at 4?
Assuming a trade down is not available

Not to duck the question, but I won't pretend to be super knowledgeable about all the prospects. The Campbell arm length and how it shows up on film has been such a hot button issue that I've looked into that to the point that I buy into concerns over how high of a ceiling he has at LT. It SEEMS to me like Warren at TE, Jeanty at RB, Graham at DT are all better bets to be elite at their position. And then guys like Jihad Campbell at LB, Jalon Walker on the EDGE or Membou at the OT spot have higher upside because they have better physical tools and you're trying to improve areas that are more improvable over a lack of length.

I've been steadfast in my belief that our biggest weakness is core players and it just feels to me like even Campbell's supporters kind of hedge their bet with how he might not be that, whereas those other guys seem like better candidates to become that.

 

[Grogan14]

Not to duck the question, but I won't pretend to be super knowledgeable about all the prospects. The Campbell arm length and how it shows up on film has been such a hot button issue that I've looked into that to the point that I buy into concerns over how high of a ceiling he has at LT. It SEEMS to me like Warren at TE, Jeanty at RB, Graham at DT are all better bets to be elite at their position. And then guys like Jihad Campbell at LB, Jalon Walker on the EDGE or Membou at the OT spot have higher upside because they have better physical tools and you're trying to improve areas that are more improvable over a lack of length.

I've been steadfast in my belief that our biggest weakness is core players and it just feels to me like even Campbell's supporters kind of hedge their bet with how he might not be that, whereas those other guys seem like better candidates to become that.

It will be hard for me to feel really jacked and pumped if and when they announce the Campbell pick.
I would be excited with a surprise Membou or Jeanty pick.
I think Membou may have a higher ceiling.
Ordinarily with #4 pick day 1 draft should be super exciting.
Campbell is not moving the needle for me

 

[Dedhampatsfan]

I don't think you'd find ANY rational pats fan who would not agree to the maxim that LT is the #1 need. The problem is that, even at #4 there is not the sure fire "franchise' prospect that you'd expect to find at that position. Every ONE of them have flaws or issues that you'd normally not find when you are drafting that high.

Going back, there were issues about Seymour when we drafted him at #6 and he turned into a HOFer. Mayo turned out to be a great pick at #10. Solder a little less so at #17, but he was a solid starting LT while he was here.

But that's the thing. I don't doubt that Membou and Campbell, etc will end up being good NFL offensive linemen, but just not what you expect to be there at #4.

Now I know that great HOFer's come from all over the draft including #199, and world class busts and very average players have come from the top 5, but that NOT what you expect or hope for. THAT is what the draft season is all about. Expectations. And the sad fact is that we Pats fans will not come out of this draft with the excitement of having a blue chip talent on the roster.

Will we come out of the draft with chance to be a much improved football team and win more than 4 games? Yeah, we really should and that is ALL that should matter. But the draft is a silly season and the ONLY reward of a painfully bad season is that come April, your team becomes one of the top stories, when you were the afterthought all last season.

Well, through no fault of our own, the main story about the Pats over the next two weeks is that, "it's tough luck that the there are only 2 true "blue chip" prospects in this year's draft, and they won't get either. And they will have to pick from the next tier of players who are VERY good, but have flaws or questions. Not what you'd expect picking 4th.

Personally, I see our 2 biggest needs as Edge and LT, and if we end up picking one of each with our first 2 picks, I will be very happy. I have no preference in which order

So you feel Keion White isn't in the conversation as being a starter?

 

[Thunderhead]

Anything but Campbell at 4.

 

[mgteich]

Anything but Campbell at 4.

Campbell at 6 and almost all of us will be as happy as we can be without Hunter or Carter falling to us. Let LV have their choice at 4.

 

[patfanken]

So you feel Keion White isn't in the conversation as being a starter?

No I see White as a starter on the DL. With Williams, White and a healthy Barmore, we could have one of the better DL's in the league. But today's multiple defenses sets and rotating DL rotations you need multiple quality DLmen. The days of 4 guys getting the vast majority of the snaps are over. Even starting DLmen rarely get more than 60% of the snaps in a game.

It might seem that drafting Graham would be a redundancy with that already being a strength of the D, but you cannot have too many quality DT's and Baremore will be a huge question mark all season to see if he can get back to that 2023 level.

If Graham truly is the BPA at #4 we shouldn't dismiss him out of hand just because we need a LT more

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I don't think you'd find ANY rational pats fan who would not agree to the maxim that LT is the #1 need. The problem is that, even at #4 there is not the sure fire "franchise' prospect that you'd expect to find at that position. Every ONE of them have flaws or issues that you'd normally not find when you are drafting that high.

Going back, there were issues about Seymour when we drafted him at #6 and he turned into a HOFer. Mayo turned out to be a great pick at #10. Solder a little less so at #17, but he was a solid starting LT while he was here.

But that's the thing. I don't doubt that Membou and Campbell, etc will end up being good NFL offensive linemen, but just not what you expect to be there at #4.

Now I know that great HOFer's come from all over the draft including #199, and world class busts and very average players have come from the top 5, but that NOT what you expect or hope for. THAT is what the draft season is all about. Expectations. And the sad fact is that we Pats fans will not come out of this draft with the excitement of having a blue chip talent on the roster.

Will we come out of the draft with chance to be a much improved football team and win more than 4 games? Yeah, we really should and that is ALL that should matter. But the draft is a silly season and the ONLY reward of a painfully bad season is that come April, your team becomes one of the top stories, when you were the afterthought all last season.

Well, through no fault of our own, the main story about the Pats over the next two weeks is that, "it's tough luck that the there are only 2 true "blue chip" prospects in this year's draft, and they won't get either. And they will have to pick from the next tier of players who are VERY good, but have flaws or questions. Not what you'd expect picking 4th.

Personally, I see our 2 biggest needs as Edge and LT, and if we end up picking one of each with our first 2 picks, I will be very happy. I have no preference in which order

I actually feel good that at #4, there are two OT prospects ranked in the top 8 or so players. So the value is there taking one at 4. I don’t think we really know who’s gonna be a blue chip player. Some call Membou blue chip for example

 

[Hugepatsfan]

It will be hard for me to feel really jacked and pumped if and when they announce the Campbell pick.
I would be excited with a surprise Membou or Jeanty pick.
I think Membou may have a higher ceiling.
Ordinarily with #4 pick day 1 draft should be super exciting.
Campbell is not moving the needle for me

Another consideration for me is that LT is kind of a "pass-fail" position for me. If you get a "passable" LT then everyone here is going to be screaming to move him to guard or RT. That's not really a position anyone ever is happy settling for "ok". Whereas with other postions, it's more of a sliding scale.

Let's say they take Jalon Walker at #4 over Campbell (or Membou) for example... if he's "good not great" or just "ok", he'll still be someone people are content to play a lot because of the rotational nature of edge players. A "good not great" or "ok" LT won't be enough. They'll want to leave Membou at RT or kick Campbell inside to LG if that's the case. There'd be short term appeasement with a LT like that because of how bad it's been, but that will quickly wear off because for the long haul people will want more at that spot.

It's like taking a QB. If you draft a QB and he's #20 out of #32, that's not enough. You'll need more. Same with LT. But at other positions where you rotate guys more there's more room to be good on a rotational basis. An EDGE player will rotate snaps. An X receiver doesn't need to be our #1 to be a good contributor.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

Looks like giants might be taking sanders at 3.

Abdul Carter....

 

[Dedhampatsfan]

No I see White as a starter on the DL. With Williams, White and a healthy Barmore, we could have one of the better DL's in the league. But today's multiple defenses sets and rotating DL rotations you need multiple quality DLmen. The days of 4 guys getting the vast majority of the snaps are over. Even starting DLmen rarely get more than 60% of the snaps in a game.

It might seem that drafting Graham would be a redundancy with that already being a strength of the D, but you cannot have too many quality DT's and Baremore will be a huge question mark all season to see if he can get back to that 2023 level.

If Graham truly is the BPA at #4 we shouldn't dismiss him out of hand just because we need a LT more

I agree. I've been hoping for Graham at 4. Doubtful Carter or Hunter will be there at 4 and I don't see Campbell worth a 4. On top of that Barmore currently is a question mark.

 

[goheels22002]

Stop it. Stop it ! STOP IT. If by some miracle either Carter or Hunter is there at #4 (and they won't be), we take them. They are transcendent talents and probably the only 2 in this draft. You DO not pass that up for a guy who might be a "good LT" or better LG. THAT would be a firing offense.

BTW, Carter is the guy who might POSSIBLY be there at #4 and he plays a position of great need as well. The only chance we have to trade down is someone who wants to trade up for a QB to get ahead of the Raiders and why would they trade up to us, when they can trade up to the Jags for less for the same result.

The most important thing that the Patriots must do is protect their QB and open holes for their running backs. Neither Hunter nor Carter are "transcendental talents" at that. For the Patriots in 2025 coming off a year with the worst offense in the NFL, they have to put as good an offensive line in front of Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson as they can. Period.

If either one of those guys is there at #4, they should listen to the market and see how much they can get for that selection. If it's not enough, just pick the best OT on the board and move on.

 

[patfanken]

The most important thing that the Patriots must do is protect their QB and open holes for their running backs. Neither Hunter nor Carter are "transcendental talents" at that. For the Patriots in 2025 coming off a year with the worst offense in the NFL, they have to put as good an offensive line in front of Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson as they can. Period.[QUOTE/]

If either one of those guys is there at #4, they should listen to the market and see how much they can get for that selection. If it's not enough, just pick the best OT on the board and move on.

I wonder about where Wallace is in his progression back from his injury riddled season. Could HE make a 2nd year leap and turn into the OT we hoped and our "solid" LT is already on the team and we just don't realize it. Just think, going back to the Eagles finding THEIR franchise LT from NZ or Australia. Did any of THEIR fans know he was their guy after 2 years of anonymity?

So many questions that we just can't answer. Campbell is the safe pick, but I REALLY worry whether he truly is a long term solution at LT. I inclination right now is to go with the 20 year old Membou and be patient with his developmental process.

But there are parts of me that just wants to go with Graham and build a DL for the ages (assuming Baremore can ever regain past glory)

I've heard the cries of a FEW nay sayers proclaim that Hunter isn't the best WR OR the best CB in this draft. But I have heard more say he is. But not doubts he would be the best WR on the Pats the moment he is picked, and if he is half as good as everyone thinks he is a CB, would be a big asset there as well.

I've heard the cries of those who believe that Carter is too small to be an edge rusher, and could only excel as a situational guy in the NFL playing less than half the defensive snaps, and #4 is too high for a guy who doesn't have 3 down potential. These are legit concerns. Hell, all draft picks are huge risks

BUT Carter and Hunter both have ceilings that are higher than the rest of their draft class and have proved it on tape (not like the TCU edge guy, who was great at the combine and has no stats).

I am having trouble with Campbell, not so much about the wingspan thing, bit the fact he had "leakage" issues that he mitigated for the most part because of his great athleticism in COLLEGE, but might not get away with in the NFL. I worry about Membou's lack of playing on the left side so far in his career. I wonder about whether we might already have our LT on the roster in Wallace. We didn't see his true potential because of his injuries and the OL coaching situation. Who knows what he might become with a year's experience and a much better coaching situation.

Think back to the Eagles when they were building their top OL. Did they know going into Jordan Mialita's 3rd year that he was going to turn into THEIR franchise LT after 2 relatively anonymous years on the bench. So who knows about players early in their careers.

So many question that CANNOT be answered. But I'm finding it hard to generate any excitement about Campbell. I'm pretty sure he will end up having a long career in the NFL as a offensive linemen, but I'm beginning to doubt it will be as a top 10 LT in the league. And THAT is what you want to get when you have the fortune or misfortune to draft at #4.

I'd actually think I'd be more excited about picking the 20 year old Membou there (if OL is your absolute priority) and be patient with his developmental process. A higher ceiling, lower floor kind of selection.

Trade down, on the surface seems like the best option, but I just can't see someone coming up that high to make us a reasonable offer of at LEAST a top 15 2nd rounder. That's especially true of someone trying to come up for a QB. Why go to us when the Jags would be a cheaper move or someplace else in the top 10.

Anyway this has become a draft rant rather than a simple response to your reply to me. At any rate, while I understand why you might think about Hunter and Carter, I disagree with your assessment with their ceilings. Sorry about the rant

 

[Huckleberry1]

Anything but Campbell at 4.

Par for the course. Campbell is the most likely pick so you are positioning yourself to throw a fit about it when it happens. Just like at the start of free agency.

 

[Grogan14]

Still pissed
Now we will walk away with a good but not elite LT instead of hunter or carter
The Day 1 draft next week is so anti climactic

I will always blame mayo for this

We should be anticipating an elite playmaking draft pick but that’s not what we are getting

We would be better off picking at 10-15 in this draft

We will be picking top 10 again next year

 

[UGAPatsfan]

Not so sure about top 10 next year. Everything else is true.

FU Mayo.

 

[Huckleberry1]

What a stupid thread.