Is it possible that the #1 pick wont be as valuable as we thought this year?

[silentone]

I really hope they trade down or across.
I'm a strong advocate for BPA, however given the need for an OT, I'm fine with a trade down from 4 to somewhere around 8-11 where I believe some combination of Campell, Banks, & Simmons will be available and which could provide them possibly with another second. My hope is Sanders fall to four and someone is willing to pay up for him.
I have little confidence in the Patriots or any other team being able to pin point top talent and discern between various high level prospects. The only player that might be a potential exception at the top of the draft seems to be Hunter. I'd like to point out something that I think gets lost in the shuffle. The higher the draft pick, the more they get paid. Being wrong at pick number 4 is really problematic and another reason for trading down. I don't think it's not enough to say player "A" is better than player "B".

2024 rookie contracts (rounded):
#1: $40mm
#2: $38mm
#3: $37mm
#4: $35mm
#5: $33mm
#6: $29mm
#7: $26mm
#8: $23mm
#9: $23mm
#10: $22mm
#11: $21mm (this is 60% of pick #4)
#12: $19mm
#13: $18mm

#50: $8mm (this is 23% of pick # 4)

I would much rather have the 11th pick at a cost of $21mm and the 50th pick at a cost of $8mm then the 4th pick. Pick four is poor risk/reward for a non-QB compared to picks 12 and a some thereafter. There is at least one study I read that for non-qb's, the 12th pick is of more value than the 4th pick due to the salary difference and the inability of GM's to figure out which players are truely the best. To me, it's shocking that the #50 pick gets ~ 23% of what the #4 pick gets. Given the Pats lack of talent and holes to fill, I would be 100% on board trading down from pick #4 and gathering as many 2nd and 3rd round picks (a little arbitrary) this year and in future years. I would add, that since I think the Pats have a tiny chance to win the super bowl next year, I would gladly defer gratification and trade pick this year for better picks next year. Just my two cents.

 

[Real fan 02]

Yep I feel like Vrabel is going to be a Huge FA Draw: a guy that has been there done that. The Krafts made a Great move securing him in spite of everything.

Yes brother! Not like 2x Mayo.. I commend the krafts on realizing he made a mistake.. I think we may be able to get Jeffrey Simmons brother what you think? Barmore situation is unknown.. we need to be adding anyway possible. Remember when BB added 23 FAs in 2001??

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Carter will go 1 and will become a devastating edge rusher and any goodwill that mayo had left among the fan base because of his playing days will go out the window.

"Mayo" is now a pejorative. It means "to backstab, specifically by a toxic individual (often stupid, fat, delusional, spiteful, lazy and childish)." Example use: Wow, the Patriots really got Mayo'd when their fat head coach played the final game to win.

 

[TommyD4207]

I really hope they trade down or across.
I'm a strong advocate for BPA, however given the need for an OT, I'm fine with a trade down from 4 to somewhere around 8-11 where I believe some combination of Campell, Banks, & Simmons will be available and which could provide them possibly with another second. My hope is Sanders fall to four and someone is willing to pay up for him.
I have little confidence in the Patriots or any other team being able to pin point top talent and discern between various high level prospects. The only player that might be a potential exception at the top of the draft seems to be Hunter. I'd like to point out something that I think gets lost in the shuffle. The higher the draft pick, the more they get paid. Being wrong at pick number 4 is really problematic and another reason for trading down. I don't think it's not enough to say player "A" is better than player "B".

2024 rookie contracts (rounded):
#1: $40mm
#2: $38mm
#3: $37mm
#4: $35mm
#5: $33mm
#6: $29mm
#7: $26mm
#8: $23mm
#9: $23mm
#10: $22mm
#11: $21mm (this is 60% of pick #4)
#12: $19mm
#13: $18mm

#50: $8mm (this is 23% of pick # 4)

I would much rather have the 11th pick at a cost of $21mm and the 50th pick at a cost of $8mm then the 4th pick. Pick four is poor risk/reward for a non-QB compared to picks 12 and a some thereafter. There is at least one study I read that for non-qb's, the 12th pick is of more value than the 4th pick due to the salary difference and the inability of GM's to figure out which players are truely the best. To me, it's shocking that the #50 pick gets ~ 23% of what the #4 pick gets. Given the Pats lack of talent and holes to fill, I would be 100% on board trading down from pick #4 and gathering as many 2nd and 3rd round picks (a little arbitrary) this year and in future years. I would add, that since I think the Pats have a tiny chance to win the super bowl next year, I would gladly defer gratification and trade pick this year for better picks next year. Just my two cents.

Now you're thinking like a Kraft.

 

[Real fan 02]

"Mayo" is now a pejorative. It means "to backstab, specifically by a toxic individual (often stupid, fat, delusional, spiteful, lazy and childish)." Example use: Wow, the Patriots really got Mayo'd when their fat head coach played the final game to win.

I'm convinced Mayo knew he was out before the game.. so he played to win.. something he never did all season

 

[PatsFan2]

I really hope they trade down or across.
I'm a strong advocate for BPA, however given the need for an OT, I'm fine with a trade down from 4 to somewhere around 8-11 where I believe some combination of Campell, Banks, & Simmons will be available and which could provide them possibly with another second. My hope is Sanders fall to four and someone is willing to pay up for him.
I have little confidence in the Patriots or any other team being able to pin point top talent and discern between various high level prospects. The only player that might be a potential exception at the top of the draft seems to be Hunter. I'd like to point out something that I think gets lost in the shuffle. The higher the draft pick, the more they get paid. Being wrong at pick number 4 is really problematic and another reason for trading down. I don't think it's not enough to say player "A" is better than player "B".

2024 rookie contracts (rounded):
#1: $40mm
#2: $38mm
#3: $37mm
#4: $35mm
#5: $33mm
#6: $29mm
#7: $26mm
#8: $23mm
#9: $23mm
#10: $22mm
#11: $21mm (this is 60% of pick #4)
#12: $19mm
#13: $18mm

#50: $8mm (this is 23% of pick # 4)

I would much rather have the 11th pick at a cost of $21mm and the 50th pick at a cost of $8mm then the 4th pick. Pick four is poor risk/reward for a non-QB compared to picks 12 and a some thereafter. There is at least one study I read that for non-qb's, the 12th pick is of more value than the 4th pick due to the salary difference and the inability of GM's to figure out which players are truely the best. To me, it's shocking that the #50 pick gets ~ 23% of what the #4 pick gets. Given the Pats lack of talent and holes to fill, I would be 100% on board trading down from pick #4 and gathering as many 2nd and 3rd round picks (a little arbitrary) this year and in future years. I would add, that since I think the Pats have a tiny chance to win the super bowl next year, I would gladly defer gratification and trade pick this year for better picks next year. Just my two cents.

Post more Rookie.

 

[dliverey44]

It’s very likely to go Hunter, Carter, Ward.

I don’t think teams are high enough on Sanders to trade up. He’s not a top 10 talent and teams aren’t going to trade the farm for him

Agree with this but I think Will Howard is a top 10 guy. I think his traits are very similar to Drake, Howard is the guy I wanted if we traded out last year. My infatuation with him started last year at K State

 

[JohnJH]

We might have one less Safety soon: Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers admits to drug possession charge

 

[PatsFan2]

We might have one less Safety soon: Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers admits to drug possession charge

Doom on him.

 

[signbabybrady]

We might have one less Safety soon: Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers admits to drug possession charge

If the domestic gets proven false then wouldn't his time on exempt list be enough punishment for the substance?

 

[dliverey44]

Thanks: was that the last time that happened??

Randy Moss was traded during the 2nd day of the draft to us for a 4th

 

[mike_usagisan]

I'm convinced Mayo knew he was out before the game.. so he played to win.. something he never did all season

I think maybe he coached to lose and just screwed that up, too.

 

[PatsFan2]

I really hope they trade down or across.
I'm a strong advocate for BPA, however given the need for an OT, I'm fine with a trade down from 4 to somewhere around 8-11 where I believe some combination of Campell, Banks, & Simmons will be available and which could provide them possibly with another second. My hope is Sanders fall to four and someone is willing to pay up for him.
I have little confidence in the Patriots or any other team being able to pin point top talent and discern between various high level prospects. The only player that might be a potential exception at the top of the draft seems to be Hunter. I'd like to point out something that I think gets lost in the shuffle. The higher the draft pick, the more they get paid. Being wrong at pick number 4 is really problematic and another reason for trading down. I don't think it's not enough to say player "A" is better than player "B".

2024 rookie contracts (rounded):
#1: $40mm
#2: $38mm
#3: $37mm
#4: $35mm
#5: $33mm
#6: $29mm
#7: $26mm
#8: $23mm
#9: $23mm
#10: $22mm
#11: $21mm (this is 60% of pick #4)
#12: $19mm
#13: $18mm

#50: $8mm (this is 23% of pick # 4)

I would much rather have the 11th pick at a cost of $21mm and the 50th pick at a cost of $8mm then the 4th pick. Pick four is poor risk/reward for a non-QB compared to picks 12 and a some thereafter. There is at least one study I read that for non-qb's, the 12th pick is of more value than the 4th pick due to the salary difference and the inability of GM's to figure out which players are truly the best. To me, it's shocking that the #50 pick gets ~ 23% of what the #4 pick gets. Given the Pats lack of talent and holes to fill, I would be 100% on board trading down from pick #4 and gathering as many 2nd and 3rd round picks (a little arbitrary) this year and in future years. I would add, that since I think the Pats have a tiny chance to win the super bowl next year, I would gladly defer gratification and trade pick this year for better picks next year. Just my two cents.

That ^ needs it's own thread again cheers.

 

[maust]

We might have one less Safety soon: Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers admits to drug possession charge

1st offense is a wrist slap and Peppers was already 'punished' and has since 'graduated' the NFL substance abuse program. It's the pending felony charges that may do him in

 

[JohnJH]

If the domestic gets proven false then wouldn't his time on exempt list be enough punishment for the substance?

I honestly don't know. That being said, based on the article we can draw the following: He's been ordered to stay "Clean" and away from any and all illegal substances. He'll probably have to go into the NFL's Substance Abuse Protocol (more often than usual random drug testing). By the plea deal, he's admitted the drugs were his and that he was doing them. That in of itself could draw another suspension. Then there's the problem of the new regime:

Vrabel wants to rid the team of a culture of "Entitlement". He may just release Peppers to send a message. Then that begs the question: Does Peppers' admission allow for the team to dismiss him under any "Conduct detrimental to the Team" type clause? Even with the domestic abuse being dismissed, the drug charge plea deal will leave him open to NFL punishment (and then team punishment/dismissal). So, there's a lot going on here. I'm also curious to know that if they dismiss him on a conduct detrimental thing, do they still have to pay the rest of his contract? Or, is that null and void, or do they at least not have to pay all of it? Perhaps someone else here knows the answer to that. We'll certainly find out in short order I think.

 

[mike_usagisan]

I really hope they trade down or across.
I'm a strong advocate for BPA, however given the need for an OT, I'm fine with a trade down from 4 to somewhere around 8-11 where I believe some combination of Campell, Banks, & Simmons will be available and which could provide them possibly with another second. My hope is Sanders fall to four and someone is willing to pay up for him.
I have little confidence in the Patriots or any other team being able to pin point top talent and discern between various high level prospects. The only player that might be a potential exception at the top of the draft seems to be Hunter. I'd like to point out something that I think gets lost in the shuffle. The higher the draft pick, the more they get paid. Being wrong at pick number 4 is really problematic and another reason for trading down. I don't think it's not enough to say player "A" is better than player "B".

2024 rookie contracts (rounded):
#1: $40mm
#2: $38mm
#3: $37mm
#4: $35mm
#5: $33mm
#6: $29mm
#7: $26mm
#8: $23mm
#9: $23mm
#10: $22mm
#11: $21mm (this is 60% of pick #4)
#12: $19mm
#13: $18mm

#50: $8mm (this is 23% of pick # 4)

I would much rather have the 11th pick at a cost of $21mm and the 50th pick at a cost of $8mm then the 4th pick. Pick four is poor risk/reward for a non-QB compared to picks 12 and a some thereafter. There is at least one study I read that for non-qb's, the 12th pick is of more value than the 4th pick due to the salary difference and the inability of GM's to figure out which players are truely the best. To me, it's shocking that the #50 pick gets ~ 23% of what the #4 pick gets. Given the Pats lack of talent and holes to fill, I would be 100% on board trading down from pick #4 and gathering as many 2nd and 3rd round picks (a little arbitrary) this year and in future years. I would add, that since I think the Pats have a tiny chance to win the super bowl next year, I would gladly defer gratification and trade pick this year for better picks next year. Just my two cents.

I'd agree with you more if we were in a position to worry about spending. Right now, we're more talent deficient than cash strapped, and as we saw last year, even having cash to burn doesn't necessarily mean we will spend it or get significant talent for the money. If there's a chance to get a significantly better player at 4 than 8-10, we need the talent more than we need the money. But if they're ranking the players 4-10 the same, then yes, trading back makes perfect sense to save money and pick up another draft pick.

 

[Patsfan1645]

T

If the domestic gets proven false then wouldn't his time on exempt list be enough punishment for the substance?

Time Served...I think it should.

 

[silentone]

I'd agree with you more if we were in a position to worry about spending. Right now, we're more talent deficient than cash strapped, and as we saw last year, even having cash to burn doesn't necessarily mean we will spend it or get significant talent for the money. If there's a chance to get a significantly better player at 4 than 8-10, we need the talent more than we need the money. But if they're ranking the players 4-10 the same, then yes, trading back makes perfect sense to save money and pick up another draft pick.

Thanks Mike. Appreciate your thoughts. I don't think the history of teams assessing talent is good. Most websites seem to have Hunter as an outlier so I could live with that but not my preference. Otherwise, I think it's a bit of a crapshoot. I hope the Pats spend all their money and strongly agree it's how efficiently they spend it that matters ("get significant talent for the money").

 

[mike_usagisan]

Thanks Mike. Appreciate your thoughts. I don't think the history of teams assessing talent is good. Most websites seem to have Hunter as an outlier so I could live with that but not my preference. Otherwise, I think it's a bit of a crapshoot. I hope the Pats spend all their money and strongly agree it's how efficiently they spend it that matters ("get significant talent for the money").

Yeah, and even if someone is a significant talent, injuries can destroy them before you get a return on the investment. I think that's why Bill was always in favor of trading back and getting more picks because it's like getting more lottery tickets.

I long to return to the days where we have to be careful with our spending because our team is in much better shape.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Counterpoint. Draft is not deep and you still can get someone very good at 4. Probably not so much at 8

They could get Ty Warren at 8, and he’s a top 5 player, and the best receiving option, in this draft. Then they could either use the 3nd to move back into the first round, or double up at DT and Edge. But that all depends upon how they deal with needs in free agency. I’m open to all sorts choices with the 4th pick.