There's no safe bets when it comes to coaches. The success rate of new HC's vs retreads is virtually identical.
The only difference is Vrabel is a known quantity and Johnson isn't as a HC.
If Vrabel was a "safe bet" he wouldn't be on the market for a job. He's just the bet with an easier to evaluate experience category.
"The only difference is Vrabel is a known quantity and Johnson isn't as a HC???" Umm no. First, both men are the same quantity as one. Vrabel is a known commodity, but thats not the ONLY difference.
One major difference is personality. Vrabel is a bull who brings strong authority and demands respect (something that Mayo never had). Vrabel isn't looking for friends and buddies to play cards with after losses. He will not tolerate the soft, whiny, pathetic, and disjointed roster with Godchaux, the WR room, Tavai, etc... He won't allow players to mouth off to the media. Both Brady and McDaniels paint Vrabel as an a-hole and thats not necessarily a bad thing.
Johnson is a unique personality with a different approach. He is known as an incredible brain who can focus and analyze data in a way Vrabel cannot. We have no idea how he would handle this roster or locker room. He is more of a meek and mild leader, and that is not a criticism. He is just the antithesis of Vrabel.
Vrabel won 3 rings as a Patriot. He knows the facility and the culture. This is perhaps one of the biggest differences. Vrabel does not have to spend time getting to know the standard and expectation of building that winning atmosphere in New England. New England fans stink and the Krafts are hard to work for. Vrabel gets that and still wants to come here according to reports. That says something and is a difference from Johnson.
Vrabel is a defensive mind and Johnson is an offensive mind. Johnson has led one of the best offenses in football for the past three years. They ranked fifth in scoring in 2022, fifth in 2023, and first in 2024. Johnson would be a play calling head coach, which is also very different from Mayo and Vrabel. Johnson is viewed as the best offensive play caller in the league right now while Vrabel would have to nail his offensive coordinator.
One has to wonder how the players view the situation of playing under either man. Does a FA want to play under Vrabel or Johnson? There is a difference? Who has better contacts? Who has the draw to bring players in and fill the holes needed to put a team on the field. Mayo had a very tough time getting players to come here. No decent tackles or WR wanted to play here. How does Vrabel or Johnson change that? I don't know the answer, but there is a difference.
Vrabel's last winning season was 2021. He was part of an organization in decline. He had a falling out with his owner and could not reconcile with the front office.
Please no to Shane Bowen.
The Giants' pass defense was ranked sixth in the league, allowing 194.7 passing yards per game.
However, the Giants' run defense was ranked 29th in the league, allowing 141.7 rushing yards per game.
The Giants also ranked 21st in points allowed per game, with an average of 24.4 points.