PostGame Thread 2024 OFFICIAL PostGame Thread: Week 13 - Patriots lose to Colts 25-24

[MrBigglesWorth]

I agree. I love Drake Maye too. Drake is why I am in the "tank for the draft" camp. People always argue that losing franchises continue to lose, but that is only true if the losing franchise does not have a QB. We have a QB and need a top LT, DT (as you saw today), and WR #1. We greatly increase our chances with a higher draft pick. We can sign all of the mid-level players in FA, and need a high draft pick to hit on the key positions of LT, DT, and WR.

It's just one pick. The first rounder success should be double of a second or later rounds if not more. Their struggles are beyond the first pick. The second round is atrocious

 

[PatsFan2]

One other piece of bad news. It may be possible for the pats to lose out and not get a top 5 pick I think. There are so many really bad teams it is insane. Someone may go 3-14 and not pick in the top 5 this year. Hope it ain't us.

Pats probably aren't going to win again this year Bills 2x, Chargers and Cards. Bills should both be blown outs. Chargers should win convincingly. Maybe we can steal one vs the Cards but I don't think it happens. They aren't that good but are solidly in the middle.

You said the Cards aren't that good...but we are really bad.

 

[PatsFan2]

It's just one pick. The first rounder success should be double of a second or later rounds if not more. Their struggles are beyond the first pick. The second round is atrocious

I hope the Krafts are taking notice. Getting only one very good player from our original Draft position is egregious. Three to Four players would be considered a good Draft: this is beyond bad.

 

[KCSVEN]

It's just one pick. The first rounder success should be double of a second or later rounds if not more. Their struggles are beyond the first pick. The second round is atrocious

-Only 50% of second round picks become meaningful starters. 2 out of 7 picks reach a second contract with the team that drafted them is the average hit rate. The average team gets 2 long term starters out of each draft.
-In a draft like 2025 with few impact players, having a top 5 pick is crucial this year or you have a 50% bust chance. Travis Hunter is one of the Drake Maye type 99% chance of success picks. Last year was Nabers, Maye and Bowers, and that was the most in any draft in a long time. Some drafts have none.

-One stat said that only 52 of the 255 players selected played 500 snaps that year. Those are half the snaps a starter usually plays in the league if not injured. 52 is not even a full two rounds of draft.

YES, teams that can hit 4 players that start in a draft are killing it and have a huge advantage and you hope you have a GM/scouting team that can do that a couple of times over 4-5 years. Not taking Ladd McConkey, big miss, they failed there. They had a 50% chance of selecting the right guy and chose Polk over him. NOT GOOD. But that's one pick. The others are still open debate, and have such a small chance of success anyways.

Building thru the draft is a misnomer, you build with a few elite players in the draft and then fill them in each year with veteran Free Agents and draft picks but the key is to get the 4-5 high level players. We have Maye and Gonzalez for sure and maybe Barmore. Add Travis Hunter and we only need 1 more to be a regular playoff competing team. The difference maker is to get that elite talent and then its easier to fill in around them.

It's more important that you hit on the first-round pick than any other pick because that is where most elite players come from.

Percent of solid starters

1st round - about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round developed into solid NFL starters.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into solid NFL starter.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

5th round - about 4-5%.

6th round - about 2%.

7th round - about 1-2%.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

-Only 50% of second round picks become meaningful starters. 2 out of 7 picks reach a second contract with the team that drafted them is the average hit rate. The average team gets 2 long term starters out of each draft.
-In a draft like 2025 with few impact players, having a top 5 pick is crucial this year or you have a 50% bust chance. Travis Hunter is one of the Drake Maye type 99% chance of success picks. Last year was Nabers, Maye and Bowers, and that was the most in any draft in a long time. Some drafts have none.

-One stat said that only 52 of the 255 players selected played 500 snaps that year. Those are half the snaps a starter usually plays in the league if not injured. 52 is not even a full two rounds of draft.

YES, teams that can hit 4 players that start in a draft are killing it and have a huge advantage and you hope you have a GM/scouting team that can do that a couple of times over 4-5 years. Not taking Ladd McConkey, big miss, they failed there. They had a 50% chance of selecting the right guy and chose Polk over him. NOT GOOD. But that's one pick. The others are still open debate, and have such a small chance of success anyways.

Building thru the draft is a misnomer, you build with a few elite players in the draft and then fill them in each year with veteran Free Agents and draft picks but the key is to get the 4-5 high level players. We have Maye and Gonzalez for sure and maybe Barmore. Add Travis Hunter and we only need 1 more to be a regular playoff competing team. The difference maker is to get that elite talent and then its easier to fill in around them.

It's more important that you hit on the first-round pick than any other pick because that is where most elite players come from.

Percent of solid starters

1st round - about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round developed into solid NFL starters.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into solid NFL starter.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

5th round - about 4-5%.

6th round - about 2%.

7th round - about 1-2%.

Thanks. This is great. Where did you get those stats?

 

[festy1986]

One other piece of bad news. It may be possible for the pats to lose out and not get a top 5 pick I think. There are so many really bad teams it is insane. Someone may go 3-14 and not pick in the top 5 this year. Hope it ain't us.

Pats probably aren't going to win again this year Bills 2x, Chargers and Cards. Bills should both be blown outs. Chargers should win convincingly. Maybe we can steal one vs the Cards but I don't think it happens. They aren't that good but are solidly in the middle.

There's a lot to play out with SOS changing weekly based on who is and isn't winning but I doubt think the Patriots can fall out of the top 5 regardless.

Also, the jags play raiders, colts and Tennessee twice in the final month of the season so two of the teams in front of us are likely to lose. 1 is guaranteed.

We'll be ok. Winning now would be a waste.

 

[signbabybrady]

Tom Brady

That wasn't the question

 

[A Defiant Goose]

There was nothing wrong with the pick. Everything wrong with how he was developed afterward.

Agreed and that's not to say that the perfect development would've made him a good QB. But they didn't really have a choice but to draft him where they did. And they did him 0 favors after his rookie season

 

[Thelonious]

Ahh, you're making my inner word nerd all warm and fuzzy. I've never encountered the second word, and never got around to looking up the definition of the first. I am bored, however, so off I go!

It's in the OED. I don't think it is in any American dictionary, not even the Third international. It is alleged to be the longest "general usage" (heh) word in English. It was originally concocted by a bunch of Oxford students as a sort of joke, I think in the 18th century. It means to "consider as being worthless." When I was a high school English teacher, I put it on a spelling test for extra credit. Many of the students were so taken with it that they actually learned it for the test, even some who got the simpler words wrong. Adolescent behavior is unfathomable, which is why they are so much fun to teach, especially if you have an affinity for amusing nonsense, which I do.

 

[archstanton543]

One other piece of bad news. It may be possible for the pats to lose out and not get a top 5 pick I think. There are so many really bad teams it is insane. Someone may go 3-14 and not pick in the top 5 this year. Hope it ain't us.

Pats probably aren't going to win again this year Bills 2x, Chargers and Cards. Bills should both be blown outs. Chargers should win convincingly. Maybe we can steal one vs the Cards but I don't think it happens. They aren't that good but are solidly in the middle.

They have the second hardest strength of schedule the rest of the way which helps them in them in tie breakers.

 

[Thelonious]

All 3 are constantly abused in the passing game. That's what worries me.

Scheme/coaching is a part as well. The scheme continually puts the LB's in positions where their skills do not match up with their cover responsibilities, so they are off down the field, trying to cover a guy they can't cover and are not in a position either to help with run defense: worst of both worlds. We can't let ourselves to be blinded either to the deficiencies in roster talent or to the deficiencies in coaching. Both areas need an overhaul before we can advance much. We are getting outcoached both with respect to in-games judgment/sceme/adjustments and with respect to the training up of players in practice. I am sick of all the pontificating about we can't fire our lousy coaches because of all the pantytwisting about how "Ooooo, that's what bad teams do." Sometimes bad teams are bad, or the deficiencies are perpetuated, because they are too weak-willed to do what must be done. Sometimes that involves compensating for past mistakes by firing those mistakes.

 

[Real fan 02]

While I agree, you are too harsh. Every GM makes mistakes. You have to compare against other situations.

Having said that, BB was a terrible GM for the last 5 to 7 years. Having said that, does the scouting department have any culpability? The 2024 draft was so bad, I hope we can agree that Wolf and Groh should be gone post haste. One of BB's biggest mistakes was not firing Wolf and Groh.

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[Real fan 02]

BB takes the majority of the blame (as he should) but it’s also apparent that wolf and groh had their hands in our draft issues for a few years now. Need a complete rebuild with our front office.

You are correct there. However Bill had final say.. it always is left up to the GM to have final say on draft selections. This is in every organization in the NFL.

 

[Ross12]

 

[sb1]

Narrator: But they can't take it out...

On offense yeah it looks like we're seeing the progression we wanted to see. It's about time.

 

[Ross12]

 

[upstater1]

Scheme/coaching is a part as well. The scheme continually puts the LB's in positions where their skills do not match up with their cover responsibilities, so they are off down the field, trying to cover a guy they can't cover and are not in a position either to help with run defense: worst of both worlds. We can't let ourselves to be blinded either to the deficiencies in roster talent or to the deficiencies in coaching. Both areas need an overhaul before we can advance much. We are getting outcoached both with respect to in-games judgment/sceme/adjustments and with respect to the training up of players in practice. I am sick of all the pontificating about we can't fire our lousy coaches because of all the pantytwisting about how "Ooooo, that's what bad teams do." Sometimes bad teams are bad, or the deficiencies are perpetuated, because they are too weak-willed to do what must be done. Sometimes that involves compensating for past mistakes by firing those mistakes.

The one thing that is maddening for me is the LBs are so deep in zone because they know, and the coaches know, that they can't recover if they play more shallow. They just don't cover space; they are actually pretty slow.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

Typical of a loser mentally!

Mayo is a loser and his mentality is spreading to the entire team.

 

[sb1]

FWIW there were reports that there was no laughing it up this time in the locker room so there's that...

 

[Ross12]

"Was the defense bad?" - Jerod says well, if you take their worst performance of the day that gave us the loss out, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

"Was the offense too conservative?" - Jerod says well, if we made a 68 yard field goal (an NFL record), we wouldn't be having this conversation.

He's really bad with the media. Either answer the question or just give a boilerplate "I thought the guys played hard, we have to coach better" type response. This contrarian "well ACTUALLY it was good if you bend over backwards and take out the worst parts" type response makes him look like a fool.