Semi-OT: Giants were seemingly very interested in moving up in the Draft. Potentially for Maye.

[Love The Drake]

Here's the guy they picked doing his best to get ready for camp:

Would you be worried if this video was Maye instead?
Honestly who cares if he wants to go blow a little steam and help some single mothers while he’s doing it?

 

[PatsFan2]

Dollar: Dollar dollar bills y'all.

 

[1960Pats]

Here's the guy they picked doing his best to get ready for camp:

Man, what a fool. I hope for his sake that his bundle of bills were only singles.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Would you be worried if this video was Maye instead?
Honestly who cares if he wants to go blow a little steam and help some single mothers while he’s doing it?

I’d be doubly concerned if it was Maye. WRs are known for this behavior, but are plentiful in the draft.

 

[KCSVEN]

what did you see in Williams that you did not like? was it on the field stuff or off the field stuff?

I am seeing what you see with Daniels regarding missing open players and tight window throws. but arm strength? I don't see that as an issue. what are you seeing?

Daniels won't throw over the middle (statistically and on film where he passes up open guys) because he doesn't trust his arm strength, the college coaches in last year's off season were trying to get his ball UP TO 55 mph which means his standard ball is under that. Watch his deeper balls, can't throw it on a line like Maye.

TUA has bad arm strength, doesn't matter on the Dolphins, Burrow is not great, nor is Purdy but they each have played with absolute elite playmakers. None of those QB's are elite and can carry a team. Burrow HAS ZERO touchdowns in the 4th quarter in all his playoff games. He has 2 interceptions, 0 TD passes and 1 TD drive in the 4th Quarter, with Chase, Boyd and Higgins.

A lot I look at is based on historical success rate, so Drew Brees was all time great but he's an outlier below 6 feet 2 thus would have not been a 1st round prospect in my mind unless he had a rocket arm and elite playmaking mobility, both him and Josh Allen, in different ways, are 2 outliers but 90% of prospects follow the historical data and I'm just going with the odds of success. They are humans of course and a few generational players can beat the odds, I would not count on it for a top 5 pick myself.

Williams:
-he's 6 foot 1 and 216, below 6 feet 2 and 220 minimums that are highly correlated with success.
-His PFF sack fault % is over 30%, only other starters in NFL with college numbers like that last year was Bryce Young (WAY too short!) and Zach Wilson, could not find any successful NFL QB historically with that sack fault # over 30%.

-He had ZERO throws while being hit-watching the film he is petrified to get hit, leading to throwing balls up for picks
-He was 39th percentile on avoiding negative plays (higher # is better) QB's that make negative plays are worse prospects
-Watching all his deep balls, his deep ball was bad, seems to be the reports out of his camp now and everyone seems surprised, deep ball was not good in college
-He scrambles because he misses reads all the time, Mahomes is not a great processor but has a cannon for an arm and elite playmaking, Willams has elite playmaking, a good arm but not Mahomes level.
-Scouts seem to knock his USC receivers but he threw to wide open guys all the time, I saw like 4 great throws in the whole year, Maye had like 4 a game. He won't take open guys with smaller windows, he runs around until someone gets more open, Mahomes does that as well, but Mahomes does everything else better.

Basically, Williams has great mechanics (this has zero predicative value on a prospect), solid arm strength and solid accuracy and close to elite playmaking (will translate but is just 1 piece of the puzzle) but lacks height and size, deep ball ability, processing, and worst of all, to me, is HE HATES TO GET HIT.

Put him on the 49ers or Dolphins he'll put up numbers. Bears have good receivers so should put up solid numbers. I see his upside the same as what Trevor Lawrence has done, solid NFL QB that you always think is going to be better than he is. Downside is he's a turnover prone sack machine that may not make a second contract.

 

[Steve102]

Man, what a fool. I hope for his sake that his bundle of bills were only singles.

Talk about a lack of guidance.

 

[rkarp1]

Daniels won't throw over the middle (statistically and on film where he passes up open guys) because he doesn't trust his arm strength, the college coaches in last year's off season were trying to get his ball UP TO 55 mph which means his standard ball is under that. Watch his deeper balls, can't throw it on a line like Maye.

TUA has bad arm strength, doesn't matter on the Dolphins, Burrow is not great, nor is Purdy but they each have played with absolute elite playmakers. None of those QB's are elite and can carry a team. Burrow HAS ZERO touchdowns in the 4th quarter in all his playoff games. He has 2 interceptions, 0 TD passes and 1 TD drive in the 4th Quarter, with Chase, Boyd and Higgins.

A lot I look at is based on historical success rate, so Drew Brees was all time great but he's an outlier below 6 feet 2 thus would have not been a 1st round prospect in my mind unless he had a rocket arm and elite playmaking mobility, both him and Josh Allen, in different ways, are 2 outliers but 90% of prospects follow the historical data and I'm just going with the odds of success. They are humans of course and a few generational players can beat the odds, I would not count on it for a top 5 pick myself.

Williams:
-he's 6 foot 1 and 216, below 6 feet 2 and 220 minimums that are highly correlated with success.
-His PFF sack fault % is over 30%, only other starters in NFL with college numbers like that last year was Bryce Young (WAY too short!) and Zach Wilson, could not find any successful NFL QB historically with that sack fault # over 30%.

-He had ZERO throws while being hit-watching the film he is petrified to get hit, leading to throwing balls up for picks
-He was 39th percentile on avoiding negative plays (higher # is better) QB's that make negative plays are worse prospects
-Watching all his deep balls, his deep ball was bad, seems to be the reports out of his camp now and everyone seems surprised, deep ball was not good in college
-He scrambles because he misses reads all the time, Mahomes is not a great processor but has a cannon for an arm and elite playmaking, Willams has elite playmaking, a good arm but not Mahomes level.
-Scouts seem to knock his USC receivers but he threw to wide open guys all the time, I saw like 4 great throws in the whole year, Maye had like 4 a game. He won't take open guys with smaller windows, he runs around until someone gets more open, Mahomes does that as well, but Mahomes does everything else better.

Basically, Williams has great mechanics (this has zero predicative value on a prospect), solid arm strength and solid accuracy and close to elite playmaking (will translate but is just 1 piece of the puzzle) but lacks height and size, deep ball ability, processing, and worst of all, to me, is HE HATES TO GET HIT.

Put him on the 49ers or Dolphins he'll put up numbers. Bears have good receivers so should put up solid numbers. I see his upside the same as what Trevor Lawrence has done, solid NFL QB that you always think is going to be better than he is. Downside is he's a turnover prone sack machine that may not make a second contract.

wow. great read
you need to post more

makes me also want to ask you your info was Mac was coming out? incredible numbers at Bama. very accurate. elite WR's however. not mobile. average (at best?) arm. threw targets open. good to very good mechanics.

what say you?

 

[KCSVEN]

wow. great read
you need to post more

makes me also want to ask you your info was Mac was coming out? incredible numbers at Bama. very accurate. elite WR's however. not mobile. average (at best?) arm. threw targets open. good to very good mechanics.

what say you?

I didn’t start researching this until this year due to the Pats pick but I love this type of research, my wife tells people I was obsessed with this and she’s probably right. LOL

I did eventually go back and look at prospects from past years see what type of prospects worked out, of course there’s some bias since I know how a lot of them played out.
I spent hours on Josh Allen only to determine he was an outlier. He used the Covid year to totally change his lower body mechanics since he could not go out and do much else during covid, but like I said, he’s an outlier

However, one year wonder starting quarterbacks is a big negative. That whole QB class also got to play the Covid year where many people did not play so the competition was terrible.
I did not do as deep dive and watched way less gamess, but tried to get an idea of how many their passes were to wide-open guys.

Justin Fields was an easy one to dismiss as a prospect because his throwing motion would never allow him to be accurate and cannot be changed
None of that draft group was impressive, but it was a hard year to evaluate due to Covid.

 

[Brotherblues]

Would you be worried if this video was Maye instead?

I'd be various degrees of worried if it were any kid we're really counting on.

I'd be terrified if it were Maye.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I was afraid Washington would take him at #2.

I am very leery about Daniels lasting in the NFL

He still may have a longer career than the top pick...still unsigned.

 

[Huckleberry1]

wow. great read
you need to post more

makes me also want to ask you your info was Mac was coming out? incredible numbers at Bama. very accurate. elite WR's however. not mobile. average (at best?) arm. threw targets open. good to very good mechanics.

what say you?

The problem with Alabama QB’s is similar to the problem there once was with Nebraska running backs. Nebraska running backs used to put up huge numbers, but then busted in the NFL because in college they were running through holes you could drive truck through. Like this Alabama QB’s are difficult to evaluate because they are throwing to wide open receivers, and they are almost always playing with a lead. Jones had great numbers in college, but he epitomized this issue, and that became clear once defensive coordinators had pro film on him, and then took away his go to plays, plus he was throwing to one of the worst receiving units in the league.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

wow. great read
you need to post more

makes me also want to ask you your info was Mac was coming out? incredible numbers at Bama. very accurate. elite WR's however. not mobile. average (at best?) arm. threw targets open. good to very good mechanics.

what say you?

I got killed for bringing up how Mac dealt with pressure - delayed and immediate. His pocket presence when things got messy, very few tight window passes and his post snap processing. Probably his biggest undoings in the league. Mac was an easy eval. He absolutely would have improved with a better cast but not by much imo. Like he capped out on his cmp% early on. Believe it or not we saw a good deal Mac's ceiling early on.

The biggest difference in college football or gap or we you want to call it isn't QB. It's OL/K. The drop off between great-good-poor is huge. Mac's OL was the biggest difference maker for a guy like him. Not wrs.

Every good scout can isolate play and that was key with Mac. He had this everything you'd want as a QB but the flaws were there.

Evaluating QBs isn't easy.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

OT, but was just reading a piece on how the Red Sox evaluate draft prospects. The interesting bit was a comment that there is the body and the brain in any prospect, and they can coach up the body but not the brain.

“Without divulging too many of our secrets or philosophies, I think it’s just really broken down into, one is just how your brain works, and two is how your body works,” said Pearson. “It’s more difficult to adjust changes to your brain — your ability to recognize the pitch and get your barrel to the ball, as well as your ability to recognize the pitch and decide to swing or not. It’s easier to change your movement patterns and how you adjust your body.”

Athleticism, hand-eye coordination, and ability to recognize pitch types and the strike zone are all harder to coach than, say, strength and conditioning, bat speed, or bat path.

How can the Red Sox find the next Jarren Duran in the 2024 MLB Draft? - The Boston Globe

The success of a draft is defined not simply by taking players with the most potential, but instead the most potential that a team can shape.

www.bostonglobe.com

Applies to QBs as well.

 

[203Pat]

I got killed for bringing up how Mac dealt with pressure - delayed and immediate. His pocket presence when things got messy, very few tight window passes and his post snap processing. Probably his biggest undoings in the league. Mac was an easy eval. He absolutely would have improved with a better cast but not by much imo. Like he capped out on his cmp% early on. Believe it or not we saw a good deal Mac's ceiling early on.

The biggest difference in college football or gap or we you want to call it isn't QB. It's OL/K. The drop off between great-good-poor is huge. Mac's OL was the biggest difference maker for a guy like him. Not wrs.

Every good scout can isolate play and that was key with Mac. He had this everything you'd want as a QB but the flaws were there.

Evaluating QBs isn't easy.

I remember claiming early on that he had a weak arm and had multiple people swearing he had a strong arm because of his lollipop lob bomb throws.

 

[PatsFan2]

I remember claiming early on that he had a weak arm and had multiple people swearing he had a strong arm because of his lollipop lob bomb throws.

Mayo & Wolf rectified that with the selections of Maye and Milton.

 

[Love The Drake]

I remember claiming early on that he had a weak arm and had multiple people swearing he had a strong arm because of his lollipop lob bomb throws.

Once we drafted him I kept telling myself Patricia and Judge could fix him.
I look back at that time as my darkest moments.

 

[Clieb]

Slow time of the year so why not. I swore I wasn't going to watch Hard Knocks as it has become so watered down and formulaic over the years but after seeing these clips I had to watch due to my Maye man crush.




Kind of wild the Giants let them release this. Seems like they are doing everything they can to let Jones know he’s on the hot seat.

Not trying to troll here- but am I missing something? Fans/media on the Twitter machine played these clips out like NYG is really high on Drake Maye… likely wanted to take him at 3… pats fans should all feel really good about this video clip… Drake nailed the interview….

I just hear him and Daboll going through some terminology and in the end Drake gets that Linda and Rita are left and right… like what about these clips tells us anything about Drake’s ability to process? I get they played the clip of Schoen wanting to talk to the Pats about trading to 3… but that could’ve been as much about Jayden as Drake… I don’t think by the combine the Commanders were de facto sold on JD… am I missing something? Or are people just seeing what they want to see here? They showed interviews with MHJ, Rome, and Nabers… like why are we sure they were interested in Drake? (Which I want to believe btw)

Did I miss what was happening in the Drake interview?

 

[203Pat]

Not trying to troll here- but am I missing something? Fans/media on the Twitter machine played these clips out like NYG is really high on Drake Maye… likely wanted to take him at 3… pats fans should all feel really good about this video clip… Drake nailed the interview….

I just hear him and Daboll going through some terminology and in the end Drake gets that Linda and Rita are left and right… like what about these clips tells us anything about Drake’s ability to process? I get they played the clip of Schoen wanting to talk to the Pats about trading to 3… but that could’ve been as much about Jayden as Drake… I don’t think by the combine the Commanders were de facto sold on JD… am I missing something? Or are people just seeing what they want to see here? They showed interviews with MHJ, Rome, and Nabers… like why are we sure they were interested in Drake? (Which I want to believe btw)

Did I miss what was happening in the Drake interview?

At least the way it is edited it looks like Daniels had a little trouble regurgitating the play call when Daboll asked where it shows that Maye seemed to get it on the first shot. Could just be editing but I think that is where the talk is coming from.

 

[Real fan 02]

At least the way it is edited it looks like Daniels had a little trouble regurgitating the play call when Daboll asked where it shows that Maye seemed to get it on the first shot. Could just be editing but I think that is where the talk is coming from.

I saw it in it's entirety.. dabol seems like he could be a prick as a coach.. but look what cloths he's cut from lol.. anyways Daniel's did have a more difficult time... but in my opinion watching it maye just had this confidence about him... easy stuff he says. The guys primed to be a top 5 QB in the league IMO.

 

[The Gr8est]

I saw it in it's entirety.. dabol seems like he could be a prick as a coach.. but look what cloths he's cut from lol.. anyways Daniel's did have a more difficult time... but in my opinion watching it maye just had this confidence about him... easy stuff he says. The guys primed to be a top 5 QB in the league IMO.

I like what we have seen so far, and I would not want a do over.

Maybe Maye doesn’t make it to three in a do over.