Holy crap they picked my only non-UDFA Beankie of the draft... [Edit: maybe except Guerendo]
My original thoughts from a month ago:
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3/31
I am all aboard the double dipping on QB with Joe Milton Day 3 train. After watching a couple of his worst 2024 games (all snaps), I don't get the inaccurate label. Dude threw 66.7% against Top 25 teams his last 2 years. I just see drops by mediocre receivers and PIs. I see a lot of really good short throws down the line or across the middle. Yeah he's made mistakes (locking into first read sometimes... ok maybe more than that), but they all have. Not gonna get into footwork because I can't evaluate that.
I also rewatched the Combine, and I couldn't believe not only did he throw 70 actual air yards a couple of times*, but he hit these guys multiple times in stride - guys he wasn't familiar with.
I have a a feeling someone's gonna take him "early" - say 4th round. I'd be comfortable with a 6th.
*JAllen only got to 67yds in the Combine but did 77yds at his pro day, but didn't really have anyone catch much of his long throws. Milton supposedly got to 80yds in his pro day - didn't see it so I won't believe until I see actual tape of it. They say Penix got up to 75yds in his pro day but I just saw about 67 actual air yards.
Edit: Plus he's got a Michigan degree. Pretty sure he graduated in 3 years.
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4/2
I don't know how I got here since I completely dismissed him until a few days ago, but
Michael Bishop Joe Milton is one of my draft Beankies (late round draft pick potential steal - but please NOT the only QB taken if this were to happen). I watched
all of his 2023 snaps, his horrendous Senior Bowl, and some previous season snaps. What makes this irrationality worse is that the guy reminds me of a slightly better version of 2020 Cam on the Pats. He even did the darn Superman celebration once or twice after a TD run. Some notes before I take time off from football before the draft because I've totally lost it:
- I saw really good decision making overall. Surprisingly very few dumb throws. Stayed comfortable in the pocket moving around avoiding sacks and didsn't panic (this is not what happened in the Senior Bowl, though - woof). Seemed to go through his progressions - hardly saw the "locks on 1st read" issue.
- Has a lot of speed but doesn't seem to run unless he had to - reached 21.3mph on an 81yd TD run which would be faster than any NFL QB run in the NextGenStats era. Take with a grain of salt due to a different measuring system.
- I've never seen so many long throws per game. Seemed like at least five 60 air yard throws (maxed at around 72yds in game end of half heave) every game.
- His Comp % is higher than his reputation because of sooooo many WR screens / throws down the line / flat - quite accurate with those. It was VERY refreshing to see him throw this type of throw compared to how dreadfully slowly Mac would throw the same thing. Estimating a DB would be 1.5-2yd further with a Milton throw versus Mac throw based on calculations, giving the WR space to work.
- Surprising number of batted balls. Weird.
- Holy crap SO MANY DROPS WOW - even non fastball ones - just poor concentration on the receivers. That and so many uncalled blatant PIs. No wonder his 20+ air yd stat is the poop.
- Frustratingly inconsistent (well known but can confirm), capable of making incredible thread the needle intermediate throws (even with touch!) but with those came a lot of slight misfires, but he seemed to improve as the season progressed. He did get sidetracked by a very slight knee injury in Week 5 and the loss of his WR1 around that time as well. 9 starts in 5 years and then 12 last year, so he really has not had much game experience.
- Would make a great long term backup. Apparently a smart guy and a natural leader, although may be too laid back - Seems to lack a competitive fire
- That being said, he has almost all the tools, and if he ever figures it out...
EDIT: I rewatched his Senior Bowl snaps was actually encouraged by what I saw, big warts and all.
Caleb Williams is going 1. Then JJ McCarthy is likely going 2 to the Redskins. So we’re going with the LSU QB I suspect unless we trade down. If it goes down like this, it’ll be mentioned ad nauseum that this is what BB would’ve done.
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