The inside story of the Patriots’ fall to rock bottom in the Bill Belichick era

[NormZauchin]

Corky will be forced on the new regime next year. Book it.

I love it when posters add "Book it" to a guess about the future. I assume you have or will place serious money on this prognostication.

 

[sb1]

Report: Patriots 'had no plan' for Malik Cunningham

One of the biggest questions throughout the season was why the New England Patriots never gave rookie quarterback Malik Cunningham a legitimate shot under center. He came off the bench in the preseason and rushed for a touchdown, along with showing his ability to make throws…

patriotswire.usatoday.com

They had no plan for him at all. I guess that logically explains why they signed him and gave him a lot of guaranteed money right? SMH

 

[skinnydog]

TBF, it's a question of what you consider the graver "sin": they're not wrong that overpaying players is bad, but obviously not having enough talent is also bad.

By the same token, Belichick's mantra that drafting for need is risky because if you mess up the pick you still have the need and wasted a pick leaves out the "alternative" that if you have a need going into the draft and completely ignore it, then you still have the need and it's now harder to fill.

Hell, we're even talking about the same thing with respect to drafting a QB this year: there are risks no matter what approach the Patriots take to fixing the QB position. It's just a question of what they feel is the risk most worth accepting.

No talent is the graver sin. You can only coach up no talent so far. And teams all over the league routinely deal with overpaying players and the cap problems that go with it. And always lookin for the bargain price at every position has its own risks of overpaying too. They over paid for Parker and JuJu. They overpaid for tackles Rief and Anderson and none of those players were even high talent players to begin with.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Would it have been worse? They hired Obie but didn't let him pick his staff, what would have been worse.

Sounds like Bill didn't actually want change. He hired OB just to appease Kraft but resisted any other changes to the offensive coaching staff.

Well guess who's just about dead last in every offensive category this year now - that's right the Patriots.

Let's chart the Patriots offensive decline and see how bad it can get.

2021 Yards Per Game 353 Ranked 15th Points Per Game 27.2 Ranked 6th
2022 Yards Per Game 314 Ranked 26th Points Per Game 21.4 Ranked 17th
2023 Yards per Game 286 Ranked 28th Points Per Game 14.6 Ranked 32nd aka Dead Last.

So yes to answer your question it can get worse, a lot worse.
Part of it of course is BB running the offensive talent into the ground and not restocking properly in either the draft or free agency.
The other part of the equation is the coaching. The Patriots just continue to get coached even worse on offense and it shows!

So now the question Kraft has to ask himself is does he need to dump out BB and the whole front office we've got entirely?
Half measures of changes obviously did not cut it for 2023.

We also have a critical draft and free agency period coming up. If we screw this up it could set back the future of this franchise for YEARS!

Team stats pulled from ESPN: 2023 NFL Offense Total Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

 

[skinnydog]

That makes sense provided your total budget is comparable to that of other teams. But this year we absolutely went cheap - not just on current cash spend (where we were 31st in the League this year behind only the Rams) but in future commitments as well. We are 4th in cap space in 2024, and second (behind only Arizona) for 2025, 2026 and 2027 and top in 2028. By contrast, the Browns and the Bills have only about half the cap space in 2028 we have ($550m vs $1.2 billion with zero players signed for us). Some of that is because we haven't signed many of our current players, but a lot of it is because we declined to play the void years game that everyone else is using for their expensive contracts. A lot of those teams will be struggling with dead money at some point as no player (except Brady) is forever, but meantime they have the class players and we mostly have the also-rans.

Yay, the Patriots won the most cap space contest! Like you said, a lot is because The Pats have failed to sign a lot of their current players. And like you said, the result is a bunch of also rans either because of poor drafting and poor free agent selections or a failure to timely extend players already under contract or all of the above.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Sounds like Bill didn't actually want change. He hired OB just to appease Kraft but resisted any other changes to the offensive coaching staff.

Well guess who's just about dead last in every offensive category this year now - that's right the Patriots.

Let's chart the Patriots offensive decline and see how bad it can get.

2021 Yards Per Game 353 Ranked 15th Points Per Game 27.2 Ranked 6th
2022 Yards Per Game 314 Ranked 26th Points Per Game 21.4 Ranked 17th
2023 Yards per Game 286 Ranked 28th Points Per Game 14.6 Ranked 32nd aka Dead Last.

So yes to answer your question it can get worse, a lot worse.
Part of it of course is BB running the offensive talent into the ground and not restocking properly in either the draft or free agency.
The other part of the equation is the coaching. The Patriots just continue to get coached even worse on offense and it shows!

So now the question Kraft has to ask himself is does he need to dump out BB and the whole front office we've got entirely. Half measures of changes obviously did not cut it for 2023. We have a critical draft and free agency period coming up. If we screw this up it could set back the future of this franchise for YEARS!

Team stats pulled from ESPN: 2023 NFL Offense Total Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

My point exactly, would it have better to keep the status quo this year. It got worse THIS YEAR.

 

[VJCPatriot]

My point exactly, would it have better to keep the status quo this year. It got worse THIS YEAR.

The status quo - the thing that didn't change was BB in charge of our draft room our free agency, and outside of OC choosing the rest of the coaching staff. All that status quo has cost the Patriots dearly.

I don't feel like Kraft can afford to status quo this team any further than 4-12. I understand that people fear change. But I fear more what BB will do if he is continued to be given free reign over the Patriots major decisions. I fear it is time to remove dictator Bill from the equation before he can do any further harm.

Think of it this way, hiring OB to take over the offense then refusing him to pick his own staff is like hiring a new Chef to take over a failing restaurant then refuse to let him fire the already failing staff members and pick his own people. It's a half hearted measure which is doomed to failure from the start. Maybe OB isn't the guy. But now we can't tell because he was never allowed to fully run the offensive coaching his way and with his people.

 

[skinnydog]

I think their system works as long as the player produces at the top % of players in that position. I look at it like this: WR #A is the top of the market and he plays at the top of the position, then the ROI is a wash. He's the #1 guy and has the #1 production, so everything is fine. If they pay a guy 75% of the market and he produces in the top 95%, then that player has a very high value. If a player is paid 50% of the market but only produces 60% of the market production, that player still has better value than say the #2 WR who performs at 80% of the market but is paid at 99% of market for the position. Follow? I feel they don't want to be paying 90-100% of the market when they are almost assured that player will underperform the contract, whereas the guy paid at 50% of the market has a very good chance of being on the right side of production. All this is skewed by Brady's performance, because he was able to raise guys up and get them to a higher % of ROI. I think further that they say that X position has a budget of a certain number, and they aren't going to exceed it, period, doesn't matter what the player is offered elsewhere. It's no different than any other job. The mid level manager gets paid X# of thousand of dollars per year, and that's what that job pays. If the employee performs above expectiation, then the employee can earn more, but the cap will be at a certain level. Once that employee reaches the cap, he/she is either promoted, or let go and someone else is paid less. There's always someone who will do your job for less money, right?

Defensively, Belichick was the best at coaching up DBs, so they knew that if they paid a guy 90% of market, he'd still be a good value because he'd probably be the top performing in the top 5% of DBs anyway, so it'd be a win.

I don't think they look at stats, per se. I think they look at the whole picture, real money ball analysis type stuff, not just fantasy football numbers. I think they analyze everything.

@Ian I would like your opinion on this one.

If you overpay a player with a lot of talent, and he underperforms, you likely still have a well above average player and in a couple of years with cap increases that contract usually isn’t so bad. Granted there are some crazy contracts out there and I’m not pushing for that. But if you give a player an average contract and he performs to the contract, you still have just an average player.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

The status quo - the thing that didn't change was BB in charge of our draft room our free agency, and outside of OC choosing the rest of the coaching staff. All that status quo has cost the Patriots dearly.

I don't feel like Kraft can afford to status quo this team any further than 4-12. I understand that people fear change. But I fear more what BB will do if he is continued to be given free reign over the Patriots major decisions. I fear it is time to remove dictator Bill from the equation before he can do any further harm.

I agree, major changes have to be made, I was talking about the whole offense set up but yeah, somethings wrong in Denmark and needs to be corrected.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

I keep hearing BB's going to go on the offense to keep his job next year when he meets with RK after the season, not sure what that means but RK has to do what's best for the team.

 

[venecol]

I'll never forget when Groh spoke about speed and athleticism when glowingly talking about Strange, Thornton, and Strong. Well, one is average for a 1st Rder, the other a bust, and the last one gone a year later.

I'm not impressed with Groh.

 

[UrbanCowboy]

Dang, this puts me on the "Bill needs to go" camp.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I'll never forget when Groh spoke about speed and athleticism when glowingly talking about Strange, Thornton, and Strong. Well, one is average for a 1st Rder, the other a bust, and the last one gone a year later.

Shania said it best:

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'll never forget when Groh spoke about speed and athleticism when glowingly talking about Strange, Thornton, and Strong. Well, one is average for a 1st Rder, the other a bust, and the last one gone a year later.

I'm not impressed with Groh.

Strange had Patricia for a coach as a rookie and Strong was a victim of poor choices at OL.

 

[upstater1]

Kind of wondering if Bill went defense-heavy in the top of the draft specifically hoping to make his already good defense look even better, so that future employers would say “well, he sure can coach a defense, wow!!” Which is what they’re saying anyway even though his top pick missed most of the season and his other top defensive player was also lost early, because he did legitimately do a good job. I just question the motivations. Like, was he seeking to strengthen his strengths to do himself a favor for his own resume?

You don't think it had more to do with taking two players who had super high values?

Keion White was considered a 1st rounder.

Gonzalez was a top 7 guy in every single mock. 99% of the people here were wishing we could jump 7 spots to grab him.

 

[upstater1]

Bill has become the guy he is trying to surpass. In just about every report I have read about both men, his decline repeats what happened to Shula. Shula, too, wanted to be unchallenged. He hired his kids. The defense got ignored (as Bill has ignored offense).

It's not nice to say, but they both got....old. Not in their ability to process the game, but in their desire to 'deal with' anything.

It's a nice story that Bill ignored offense. When in fact he has poured a ton of resources into it.

He failed to find good enough offensive players, but it wasn't for lack of trying.

Just look at the last 3 or 4 drafts and all the free agents with big contracts that we've brought in.

 

[bosox2398]

As bad as it looks for Bill, does Kraft really have the cajones to fire or "mutually part ways" with Bill after all he did for the franchise? Does he want bill to go to the chargers or bills and win a Super Bowl with Herbert or Allen? Then he'd be the guy who let Brady and Belichick leave on his watch only to have success elsewhere, and potentially doom his hall of fame chances.

 

[upstater1]

If you overpay a player with a lot of talent, and he underperforms, you likely still have a well above average player and in a couple of years with cap increases that contract usually isn’t so bad. Granted there are some crazy contracts out there and I’m not pushing for that. But if you give a player an average contract and he performs to the contract, you still have just an average player.

People said the exact opposite when we got "stuck" with Jonnu Smith. They said we're saddled with that contract and the cap hits.

Just to be clear, the tackles who busted are making $80m. Algholor got $22m.

There's a huge difference between $80m and $22m.

With $80m, we could probably sign Pittman, who would be a million times better on the team than a turnstile tackle.

 

[*ChungFu*]

Kraft would have had HOF secured after taking it up the breezer from Goodell with mild protests over the various punishments handed down for the good of the 32. He then could have had them permanently lost for his comments on the Lombardi Stage at the conclusion of the GFY Tour. Ultimately, I think his skills at getting Broadcasting Deals and NFLPA negotiations put him back over the top.

 

[venecol]

Kind of wondering if Bill went defense-heavy in the top of the draft specifically hoping to make his already good defense look even better, so that future employers would say “well, he sure can coach a defense, wow!!” Which is what they’re saying anyway even though his top pick missed most of the season and his other top defensive player was also lost early, because he did legitimately do a good job. I just question the motivations. Like, was he seeking to strengthen his strengths to do himself a favor for his own resume?

He wanted to win with old school formula, strong D and running game. He won't budge. Yet, we have posters here claiming that only Belichick can lead us to the promised land while completely ignoring his recent below average record. Poor dudes aren't coping well.