Tankathon

[KCSVEN]

We need to root for the Commanders, Bears and Cardinals to win next week because the Pats are going to take care of the Jets.

All depends on if Jets come to play, the Pats won't score 20 if the Jets defense cares at all, the Jets also have extra rest and time to prepare, I think the Pats have proven there are no gimmes for them this year. This game will likely be a 1 score game, 1 big play and by Jets and they would win. Just a question of whether the Jets try to win or mail it in as BB won't let Pats mail one in.

 

[KCSVEN]

Great Chart!
Bears/Packers, Raiders, Texans, Steelers and Falcons are the most likely scenario there.
Ravens likely rest starters. If they do not rest then The Saints, Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Bears is more likely.
Wish Falcons were playing at home. They just are not that good, but they did beat the Saints earlier in the year.
Seems like Texans/Falcons winning is the best path.
Of course, all moot if Pats don't do the right thing and lose to the Jets.

 

[KCSVEN]

I'm not convinced the Bears take a QB. Heck, they might even be up for trading down. All things possible once the season is finished, senior bowls, combines etc etc

They will draft Williams and trade Fields. Unless they are incompetent.

 

[TommyD4207]

This is what we'll miss out on with a win.

If Harrison's on the board at 3, they're taking Harrison. They may take him at 2 depending on what happens in FA.

 

[KCSVEN]

If Harrison's on the board at 3, they're taking Harrison. They may take him at 2 depending on what happens in FA.

Depends on who is doing the drafting and what they think of Daniels. I think after Maye/Williams there is a drop to Daniels but then after that the drop is even further.
I'm not sold on Daniels and personally would take Harrisson and take a shot at the next tier of QB's in round 2, but if they bring in a new coach and gm, they have a shot at Daniels and like him, they have to take him.
At 2, they draft Maye/Wiliams, that's a no brainer.

You get an all pro/hall of fame receiver like Magatron, you still may never make the playoffs
You get an all pro level left tackle like Darrisaw and Miller, Andrew Thomas etc. you still might never make the playoffs
You get an all pro QB you are making the playoffs most years.

 

[TommyD4207]

Depends on who is doing the drafting and what they think of Daniels. I think after Maye/Williams there is a drop to Daniels but then after that the drop is even further.
I'm not sold on Daniels and personally would take Harrisson and take a shot at the next tier of QB's in round 2, but if they bring in a new coach and gm, they have a shot at Daniels and like him, they have to take him.
At 2, they draft Maye/Wiliams, that's a no brainer.

I mean, I think there's a drop after Williams, and even his selling point is upside - he's got good mechanics, especially with off-schedule throws, If Harrison's on the board when the Patriots pick, they have to take him - he's the best player in the draft, and the only one who could be a generational player. Maye, Penix, Daniels, Sanders, Nix - once you get past Williams, it's an absolute crapshoot that any of those players are going to do anything of note in the league.

Think of it as a replay of the 2021 draft, in terms of QB's. Hyped up that there are so many, there's only 1 (Lawrence) who really has the chance to be a star coming out (and he's not there yet, which I think might be where Williams is), and everyone else drafted just sucks. Drake Maye would be your Justin Fields in this scenario.

 

[KCSVEN]

I mean, I think there's a drop after Williams, and even his selling point is upside - he's got good mechanics, especially with off-schedule throws, If Harrison's on the board when the Patriots pick, they have to take him - he's the best player in the draft, and the only one who could be a generational player. Maye, Penix, Daniels, Sanders, Nix - once you get past Williams, it's an absolute crapshoot that any of those players are going to do anything of note in the league.

Think of it as a replay of the 2021 draft, in terms of QB's. Hyped up that there are so many, there's only 1 (Lawrence) who really has the chance to be a star coming out (and he's not there yet, which I think might be where Williams is), and everyone else drafted just sucks. Drake Maye would be your Justin Fields in this scenario.

Not sure Maye is much less a prospect then Williams, his tape is excellent. His workouts will determine his place for sure, but I've read several scouts have Maye just below Williams and have both Maye AND Williams as Trevor Lawrence level prospects which is rare.
Maye is definitely a better prospect than Fields was, just need to see after his workouts how close he gets put to Williams.

 

[Steve102]

They are gonna beat the bag off the jete, so that’s the scenario I am focusing on.

 

[varjao]

The Jets game is no gimme, they have a better record than us just to remember.

 

[Patsgofor4]

I mean, I think there's a drop after Williams, and even his selling point is upside - he's got good mechanics, especially with off-schedule throws, If Harrison's on the board when the Patriots pick, they have to take him - he's the best player in the draft, and the only one who could be a generational player. Maye, Penix, Daniels, Sanders, Nix - once you get past Williams, it's an absolute crapshoot that any of those players are going to do anything of note in the league.

Think of it as a replay of the 2021 draft, in terms of QB's. Hyped up that there are so many, there's only 1 (Lawrence) who really has the chance to be a star coming out (and he's not there yet, which I think might be where Williams is), and everyone else drafted just sucks. Drake Maye would be your Justin Fields in this scenario.

I bet that scouts are close to 50/50 on Williams/Maye. Also, if Odunze balls out in the semis and, possibly, the championship game he’ll be talked about in the same breath as MHJ.

 

[PatsFan2]

We need to root for the Commanders, Bears and Cardinals to win next week because the Pats are going to take care of the Jets.

49ers are resting starters I am sure the Commanders will tank non the less.

 

[PatsFan2]

I bet that scouts are close to 50/50 on Williams/Maye. Also, if Odunze balls out in the semis and, possibly, the championship game he’ll be talked about in the same breath as MHJ.

Nabers and Coleman says hello and I love Rome.

 

[PatsFan2]

Depends on who is doing the drafting and what they think of Daniels. I think after Maye/Williams there is a drop to Daniels but then after that the drop is even further.
I'm not sold on Daniels and personally would take Harrisson and take a shot at the next tier of QB's in round 2, but if they bring in a new coach and gm, they have a shot at Daniels and like him, they have to take him.
At 2, they draft Maye/Wiliams, that's a no brainer.

You get an all pro/hall of fame receiver like Magatron, you still may never make the playoffs
You get an all pro level left tackle like Darrisaw and Miller, Andrew Thomas etc. you still might never make the playoffs
You get an all pro QB you are making the playoffs most years.

Jayden Daniels says hello Lamar Jr.

 

[Patsgofor4]

49ers are resting starters I am sure the Commanders will tank non the less.

This makes my eyes burn.

*nonetheless

 

[PatsFan2]

This makes my eyes burn.

*nonetheless

You're such a grammar police nonetheless.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

This makes my eyes burn.

*nonetheless

The only one that bothers me and I'm not sure why it does but its the loose for lose and loosing for losing.

 

[TheRainMaker]

49ers are resting starters I am sure the Commanders will tank non the less.

49ers just beat the Commanders. They play the Rams next week.

 

[JohnJH]

I mean, I think there's a drop after Williams, and even his selling point is upside - he's got good mechanics, especially with off-schedule throws, If Harrison's on the board when the Patriots pick, they have to take him - he's the best player in the draft, and the only one who could be a generational player. Maye, Penix, Daniels, Sanders, Nix - once you get past Williams, it's an absolute crapshoot that any of those players are going to do anything of note in the league.

Think of it as a replay of the 2021 draft, in terms of QB's. Hyped up that there are so many, there's only 1 (Lawrence) who really has the chance to be a star coming out (and he's not there yet, which I think might be where Williams is), and everyone else drafted just sucks. Drake Maye would be your Justin Fields in this scenario.

If we are in a position to take a QB in hopefully no lower than 3rd overall, we should do it. Then, someone like Xavier Leggette, who's 6'3" and 227 lbs and runs a reported 4.3 40 (a much faster A.J. Brown potentially). Then grab TE Cade Stover. Those two picks for right there wouldn't suck (at least in-theory). But then, it's always all theory until proven true.

 

[JohnJH]

I see @Ross12 has done this analysis too.

A simpler way of looking at it:
Washington's opponents [counting divisional teams twice] have 140 wins.
New England's have 141.
[Arizona's have 153.]

If both WAS and NE lose, then all of the divisional matches will cancel out. If Washington's non AFCE/NFCE opponents win more games than the Patriots' non-AFCE/NFCE opponents do, NE gets the #2 pick. Otherwise, they get #3.

If NE wins, the worst they can possibly do is #7.

The perfect end to a horrible season; not even getting a top 3 or 4 pick (and worse, #7 overall).

 

[Ross12]

It turns out Broncos/Raiders doesn't hold special weight (other than Falcons, every other team that favors NE appears the same number of times).

Again, I'm not 100% sure which one is correct (I don't feel like doing the math right now), just noting the discrepancy.

It does - Broncos/Raiders is a wash for NE because they played both teams so they’ll get 1 win and 1 loss regardless, but Washington only played the Broncos, so you want Washington to gain a win and not a loss. Therefore the Broncos winning is a boon. If you look at the chart with the Broncos and Falcons winning then you can have nearly any other permutation of wins in the other 3 games and still finish with the Pats on top. Not quite every outcome, but nearly.