Trade Back or Straight QB Pick

[PatsFan2]

True, but if we pick in the top 2, the question is more nuanced: do we take a QB there, or move down within the top 7 or even top 12 - e.g. Herbert was 6th, Allen was 7th, Mahomes was 10th, Watson was 12th. Also Lamar at 32, Hurts at 53, Love at 26, Dak at 135, Purdy at 262. There's currently 8 starters that were picked 1-5, another 8 starters picked 6-32, and about 16 starters picked after that (disregarding injuries).

I would agree with your take in another Year not this one. Too many Teams are looking for QBs. I like Williams - Daniels - Penix Jr and Nix for us in that order.

 

[Nunchucks]

If they are top 2. They have to take a qb. If they are 3, they should trade down and get the best OT, then draft a qb, then a wr.

 

[PaulThePat]

I've seen Drake Maye compared to Justin Herbert - similar size and athletic profile, similar arms. And Caleb Williams is a bigger Kyler Murray.

Another comp I've heard for Williams is Baker Mayfield. Make of that what you may.

 

[condon84]

BPA will very rarely result in the drafting of a QB in any round, certainly not after the couple of picks.

The BPA is often an OT or a front seven defender. This year, the BPA may be a WR.
==================================
Teams "overdraft" for a QB because it so hard to get quality a QB. And those teams are right to do so, even if top 15 QB's are only 50% to be a successful choice.

IMO, Jones was a good choice at 15. The choice didn't work out, perhaps because of poor coaching, perhaps just because he isn't very good. The huge mistakes were the development "plan" for Jones and the lack of a veteran backup. It is NOT second to believe that if we had the "normal" set of QB's we'd be in the playoffs. Belichick just put everything on the line in 2023 by not bringing in backups. Some fans cheered because that strategy meant either a successful Jones or a top 10 draft pick. My WAG is the Kraft will correct the error of having a GM that makes such mistakes.

1st round QBs have the second highest bust rate at 40% behind RBs at 46%.

You shouldn't take a QB in the 1st round just because your team needs a QB and you're picking, unless it's someone like Andrew Luck (which there isn't one in this year's class)

You can sign a vet and draft a QB later on to develop.

We need help at OL and WR. If Harrison is there, you draft him. If he's gone, I would be okay with trading back, accumulating picks while drafting OLs or WRs.

 

[Rob0729]

BPA will very rarely result in the drafting of a QB in any round, certainly not after the couple of picks.

The BPA is often an OT or a front seven defender. This year, the BPA may be a WR.
==================================
Teams "overdraft" for a QB because it so hard to get quality a QB. And those teams are right to do so, even if top 15 QB's are only 50% to be a successful choice.

IMO, Jones was a good choice at 15. The choice didn't work out, perhaps because of poor coaching, perhaps just because he isn't very good. The huge mistakes were the development "plan" for Jones and the lack of a veteran backup. It is NOT second to believe that if we had the "normal" set of QB's we'd be in the playoffs. Belichick just put everything on the line in 2023 by not bringing in backups. Some fans cheered because that strategy meant either a successful Jones or a top 10 draft pick. My WAG is the Kraft will correct the error of having a GM that makes such mistakes.

I think the best drafting strategies are always a good mix of BPA and need. Too many teams do one or the other and unless the player is an absolute stud, they tend to end up getting a guy who disappoints.

But if you are drafting a QB high in the first round who would have been a second round pick if teams weren't starving for QBs, are you really drafting a first round QB or just a second round quality player?

 

[Rob0729]

McCarthy is the least of the QBs I like I don't think he makes tough throws might have to watch him again. I feel he could be a overdrafted player I wouldn't make him a First Rounder. The Texas kid is better and he's leaning towards returning.

McCarthy was just the first name that came to my head. He isn't a guy I am advocating to draft. Don't know enough about any of the QBs really right now to say who I might like.

 

[Steve102]

If they are top 2. They have to take a qb. If they are 3, they should trade down and get the best OT, then draft a qb, then a wr.

My suspicions are that the first three picks are Harrison, Maye and Williams, not necessarily in that order. I really think that Harrison is #1, and the Bears will stick with Fields. That means both Maye and Williams will be available. Seen mocks this week where it's Maye 1 and Daniels 2 to the Pats.

 

[lancerman]

1st round QBs have the second highest bust rate at 40% behind RBs at 46%.

You shouldn't take a QB in the 1st round just because your team needs a QB and you're picking, unless it's someone like Andrew Luck (which there isn't one in this year's class)

You can sign a vet and draft a QB later on to develop.

We need help at OL and WR. If Harrison is there, you draft him. If he's gone, I would be okay with trading back, accumulating picks while drafting OLs or WRs.

In yet first round QB's have a MUCH higher first round hit rate than the rest of the draft combined. Particularly the first 15 picks

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I would agree with your take in another Year not this one. Too many Teams are looking for QBs. I like Williams - Daniels - Penix Jr and Nix for us in that order.

With all our needs, I think if we got a good offer to move down from 2 to say 7, we do it. Unless we're totally sold on one of those top 3 QB's as a must-have. Multiplying high picks is the best way out of where we are, unless one of these guys is a generational talent that we can't risk losing.

 

[aluminum seats]

Playing a QB out of the gate doesn't seem to work as much as waiting and learning.

Good topic, it would be interesting to see someone take a deep dive on that

 

[condon84]

In yet first round QB's have a MUCH higher first round hit rate than the rest of the draft combined. Particularly the first 15 picks

All-Pro rate dead last the past 25 years at 5.3% for QBs says otherwise - source

 

[Rob0729]

My suspicions are that the first three picks are Harrison, Maye and Williams, not necessarily in that order. I really think that Harrison is #1, and the Bears will stick with Fields. That means both Maye and Williams will be available. Seen mocks this week where it's Maye 1 and Daniels 2 to the Pats.

If the Bears have two picks in the top 5, I think they draft one of the top two QBs.

And I wonder if they don't go OT instead of Harrison. They already have a stud WR and their line sucks.

 

[NFL Mystique]

If they are top 2. They have to take a qb. If they are 3, they should trade down and get the best OT, then draft a qb, then a wr.

What if AZ is 2 and they draft MHJ?

Maye (likely not Williams) will still be there at 3

 

[NFL Mystique]

With all our needs, I think if we got a good offer to move down from 2 to say 7, we do it. Unless we're totally sold on one of those top 3 QB's as a must-have. Multiplying high picks is the best way out of where we are, unless one of these guys is a generational talent that we can't risk losing.

This depends on who is drafting.

If it's Bill, you can't go for more picks. Not with his drafting as of late. You have to take one of the QB's.

If it's another guy drafting, he needs to have a plan maped out to ownership if they are moving back.

I don't think you can come out of this draft without a QB of the future. Not just any QB. But one where you think he can be a top tier QB or what not.

 

[Steve102]

If the Bears have two picks in the top 5, I think they draft one of the top two QBs.

And I wonder if they don't go OT instead of Harrison. They already have a stud WR and their line sucks.

I want to spend more time watching Daniels and Maye, but Daniels is intriguing to me.

 

[mgteich]

I think the best drafting strategies are always a good mix of BPA and need. Too many teams do one or the other and unless the player is an absolute stud, they tend to end up getting a guy who disappoints.

But if you are drafting a QB high in the first round who would have been a second round pick if teams weren't starving for QBs, are you really drafting a first round QB or just a second round quality player?

One way of thinking of the mix of BPA and need is to give value for need at the position (by you and by other teams). Alos points must be given for scarcity.On a point system, one might add points or deduct points based on need.

OT
Let us say that this a terrible year to draft a starting LT. There certainly will be great need (by us and by others),

Let us further presume that there are 4 or 8 OT's capable of starting this year. Would we really rate the LT the same. Of course not. What we we had no need for a starting LT, would we rate a LT the same as if we had great, great need. Of course not.
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I believe that most QB's drafted after the first 10 are likely to be 2nd round quality. I think that this was true of Jones. That doesn't mean that we should have drafted a safety if the quality was the same at 15. It is a matter of probability times value. And ues, value has need as a compnent.

So, if we really think that the other 3 QB's who will likely be drafted in the first are ready to go after a year, then trading down makes sense. Of course, this is only if we don't think that the first 2 are possible superstars. Bryce and Stroud are fine examples. Both may end up being top QB's, or only one. BOTH were worth drafting with the top 2 picks.
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JST BY THE WAY
I would want to trade up to the first pick, if I had a strong preference.

 

[Triumph]

Looking over each of the past QB drafts, youre lucky if you find 1 NFL franchise QB out of the bunch.

The 2021 draft is a pile of chit beyond Lawrence who is like waiting for Christmas to finally show up.

DraftHistory.com

www.drafthistory.com

 

[lancerman]

All-Pro rate dead last the past 25 years at 5.3% for QBs says otherwise - source

You are using data selectively.

Since 2001, the first and second team all pro QB's

23 of those went to first round QB's.
10 were second round.
1 was in the third round.
1 was in the 4th round.
6 were in the 6th round (guess who)
2 were undradted.

That's 43 QB's that got that accolade. 53% or a clear majority were first rounders. The next best is still only 23%. The third and fourth round respectively each are only at 2%. The third highest round is all the same guy.

 

[VrabelJr]

Trade back. We need multiple sure things at OT, WR, and it's always good to keep an eye on DT if value is there. This seems like a great year to gamble on a QB later.

 

[VrabelJr]

23 of those went to first round QB's.

10 of those are Peyton Manning. I'm guessing the rest are a mix of Rodgers and Mahomes with one time guys like Wentz and Josh Allen.