The 1st pick in the draft is ONE pick better than the SB winner.

[XLIX]

I understand lol… and it’s not circular. It proves that most top 15 picks don’t become cornerstone players to their organization. Just because they are sexy college players it doesn’t mean they end up being good professionals … otherwise said team with so many high draft picks , wouldn’t have to draft so high every year ..

Well obviously most top 15 picks aren't going to become cornerstones of their organizations.

But there are a lot more cornerstones and key players who were drafted 1 to 15 than there were 16 to 30.

 

[upstater1]

Even with Tom, you still had to have SOME talent on offense. Especially the line. We saw what Tom did in his last year here in NE vs his first year in TB. The problem wasn't with Tom getting older.

QBs make their lines better.

I mean, we had some guys that other teams jettisoned.

Remember when Warren Sapp blasted Russell Hochstein?

We had Joe Andruzzi, Donald Thomas, Dan Connolly, Grant Williams, heck Stephen Neal didn't even play college football.

We really only spent resources on Vollmer, Light and Mankins.

Brady truly made a lot of careers. Thomas is a great example of a guy who cashed out because of Brady.

 

[XLIX]

Pumped, jacked… I have no idea what this ^ means.

Tell us you started following the Patriots only when they won Super Bowls without telling us you started following the Patriots only when they won Super Bowls.

 

[vicspats]

The top 15 routinely has the highest hit rate. They are lottery tickets where some have more likelyhood of yielding a prize than others.

2000 draft: 10 Pro Bowlers in the top 15, the only HOF'er in the draft class. Tom Brady will end up being another HOF outside the top 15. Outside the top 15 there were 18 Pro Bowlers. So you have a 66% hit rate in the first 15 picks and a 7% hit rate outside of it.

2001 draft: 9 Pro Bowlers in the top 15. Including 2 HOF'ers. 25 outside of it. Again huge disparity.

2002 draft. This was a weak one for the top 15. 6 Pro Bowlers. Outside of it, 13. So in the top 15 you had a 40% hit rate. Outside of it you had a 5%.

2004 draft. This was an all time famous draft. 10 Pro Bowlers in the top 15. So again 66% hit rate. At least 2 HOF'ers. 21 outside of it. So an 8% hit rate.

2005 again had 10 in the top 15.

2007 had 8 in the top 15 including three HOF'ers.

2011 had 11 so you are talking a 73% hit rate there.

2013 was an outlier draft. That's one where only 4 guys in the top 15 became pro bowlers.

2014 had 11 again.

As far as the number 1 pick, since 2000, only 4 number 1 overalls didn't become Pro Bowlers. Courtney Brown, David Carr, Jamarcus Russell, Sam Bradford, and Baker Mayfield. Mayfield was the only non probowler #1 overall since 2011.

It's just ridiculous to say those aren't high commodity picks. At any given time, almost 2/3rds of the leagues QB's are generally top 15 picks.

Excellent points …good info, never said they weren’t high commodity picks. And all those individual goals are real neat …pro bowlers and mvps and hall of famers. It’s how I’m sure many of us felt back in the early 80s rooting for Camarillo lol … All I said was, it’s interesting that there’s a decent amount of teams that continuously draft top 15 … and those players, the ones that should be moving the team forward to championships, don’t seem to. It’s not a penalty to draft high…

 

[Triumph]

I’m too excited for week 5 when Zappe takes over the NFL. Can ya blame me?

Try a plastic shopping bag over your head. Remove your hockey helmet first though.

Carbon dioxide.

 

[TheRainMaker]

So you’re bummed out the Pats would get the top 5 pick in EVERY ROUND because they pick after the Super Bowl Champion?

Imagine an analyst saying it’s a disadvantage to pick after the Super Bowl Champion during a broadcast.

 

[upstater1]

All I know is DON'T pick Bo Nix or Michael Penix. I've seen too much throwing off back foot constantly and bailing out of pocket too quickly in my lifetime. No thanks.

As for Caleb Williams he's allowed to throw however he wants because he has a cannon.

 

[ahmed]

If not for AdamV, a kicker, Brady has two fewer rings today... but it was all Brady.

It's a special kind of stupid.

You do remember he missed 2 kicks in the Carolina SB right? So him being accurate 33% of the time (i.e. horrible for a Kicker) is the reason we won the SB? But not Brady leading offense to 30+ points? Get out of here with that garbage.

 

[bruinator]

For those of you who dont know the reason why we won all those SB was because OF TB12. If you cant realize that you do not know anything about football.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Yes, a top 5 pick is important. Folks seem to think that we have advantages throughout the draft, We do not.

After the first pick, the worst team picks one AFTER the Super Bowl winner throughout the draft (ignoring trades and comp picks). Let's say we are the 1st pick and PHI is pick 32.
============
1. NE gets the first pick.
2. PHI gets 32, NE get 33.
3. PHI gets 65, NE gets 66
4. PHI gets 97, NE gets 98 (actually lower because of comp picks.
4. PHI gets last in the 4th, patriots get first in the 5th (the next pick)
and so on.
===============
BOTTOM LINE
After the results of the first pick, we have slightly less draft resources than the SB winner.

We are kidding ourselves if we think that we make a meaningful step toward the SB by drafting a WR or OT at 4 or 5. There is only one FAST step toward being a good team: getting a top QB. To me, FAST to me means 2-3 years. .

So let's see ...
Theoretically by this logic a team trades out of every round to obtain say a top 3 pick in the next round
Thus passing up players to obtain in theory lesser players ... but potentially one of the best available in that next round.
This works as relates to initial contract dollars ... financially does not equate to talent ... it is not a zero sum gain.

Belichick is actually very well versed in game theory ... more so than pundits realize ...
But he is too often on the wrong side of positive sum game theory ..
win-win in later rounds are good for capology ... we did win a Super Bowl with it.

Belichick drafting history is based on zero sum game theory ... his drafting is a reflection of it ...
but he is too often on the wrong side of it .. plays it wrong ... non zero sum game in earlier rounds.
Positive sum gain is good for salary cap ... not much else.

 

[IcyPatriot]

For those of you who dont know the reason why we won all those SB was because OF TB12. If you cant realize that you do not know anything about football.

Not necessarily true in the earlier Super Bowl victories ... however a strategic factor in them.

 

[ahmed]

Even with Tom, you still had to have SOME talent on offense. Especially the line. We saw what Tom did in his last year here in NE vs his first year in TB. The problem wasn't with Tom getting older.

Agreed but I think his unhappiness with the contract and that being his last year was a factor. That was the only time I saw him show frustration off the field (e.g. training camp, press conf)

 

[ahmed]

How did this get up to 8 pages? Isn’t it obvious 1 is better than 32 and 33 is better than 64? It’s also obvious that your team sucks if your drafting 1, needs a lot of help and that 32 means you just won the Superbowl.

We’ve been on both ends of the spectrum. They’ve landed the 32 pick 6 times. They picked Bledsoe from the 1 in 93. McGinnest at the 4 spot, Seymoure at the 6. Yes, their are usually better players at the top of the draft. And yes, sometimes you get lucky with later picks like Brady, Light, McCourty etc.

What else do we have left but blow up ridiculous subjects into multiple pages and talk in circles? Nice distraction from on the field action

 

[ahmed]

No he won’t. He’s been figured out. Make him throw the ball down the field and he won’t. Put him in a pressure situation and he turns the ball over.
That can’t be fixed.

Yup and this was obvious from the beginning. Was shocking to me how supposed experts were talking him up. Was clear that he froze and panicked when pressured from literally game 1. The rest took some time to see.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

So you’re bummed out the Pats would get the top 5 pick in EVERY ROUND because they pick after the Super Bowl Champion?

Imagine an analyst saying it’s a disadvantage to pick after the Super Bowl Champion during a broadcast.

 

[KCSVEN]

All I know is DON'T pick Bo Nix or Michael Penix. I've seen too much throwing off back foot constantly and bailing out of pocket too quickly in my lifetime. No thanks.

As for Caleb Williams he's allowed to throw however he wants because he has a cannon.

I'm with you, the only possible franchise QB's in this draft are Williams, Maye and Daniels. If Ewers or Sanders declare for the draft they might get into the conversation depending on how they do at the combine, but I think they both stay.
Everyone else looks like a JAG. I don't think you can wait until round 2 to take the QB as there are only 3 to really choose from.

 

[KCSVEN]

Doesn’t matter whether they get the first pick or the 15th again… the only desperate need on this team is a QB.

Texans are the model. They draft a franchise QB #2, take Tank Dell, equivalent to Demario Douglas, in round 3. All of a sudden Nico Collins looks like a good WR. They don't run the ball well, the receivers are OK, they would have 2 wins without Stroud.
Get QB at top, get Tackle top of round 2, get a receiver round 3 or trade up into 2 as it is a very deep receiver draft. That's the way to go.

 

[mgteich]

So let's see ...
Theoretically by this logic a team trades out of every round to obtain say a top 3 pick in the next round
Thus passing up players to obtain in theory lesser players ... but potentially one of the best available in that next round.
This works as relates to initial contract dollars ... financially does not equate to talent ... it is not a zero sum gain.

Belichick is actually very well versed in game theory ... more so than pundits realize ...
But he is too often on the wrong side of positive sum game theory ..
win-win in later rounds are good for capology ... we did win a Super Bowl with it.

Belichick drafting history is based on zero sum game theory ... his drafting is a reflection of it ...
but he is too often on the wrong side of it .. plays it wrong ... non zero sum game in earlier rounds.
Positive sum gain is good for salary cap ... not much else.

I guess that I am miscommunicating.

Many posters continue to say that those who pick early in the draft have a great advantage in every round. In one sense they do.

Let us say that we pick 4th and pick an OT, which we would likely do.
======================================
We've watched the first few minutes of the draft. AT THAT POINT, the SB champs have better picks than we do. Yes, the OT may be enough to change the franchise. Yes, this is a very valuable pick.

HOWEVER, my perspective is that it is great if you allowed to pay more than $25M for this player. Belichick has a fine track record because he doesn't take chances with blue chip picks (often only top 12, but his record is a fine one through 21). When you need a QB, you are almost forced to take chances. These QB choices aren't much better than 50-50 shots.
=========
Folks sometimes think that ALL of the golden picks will change the franchise. Perhaps they will. Perhaps, the picks by the SB champ will change their franchise. If our team was one OT away from the quality of the SB champ, then we would have an equal chance of improving our squad.
================
EXPECTATION
As of now, II expect us to trade (if possible) if our pick is after 5. For example, we might trade up for a QB. More likely is that we trade down and pick up a 2nd.

 

[mgteich]

Texans are the model. They draft a franchise QB #2, take Tank Dell, equivalent to Demario Douglas, in round 3. All of a sudden Nico Collins looks like a good WR. They don't run the ball well, the receivers are OK, they would have 2 wins without Stroud.
Get QB at top, get Tackle top of round 2, get a receiver round 3 or trade up into 2 as it is a very deep receiver draft. That's the way to go.

IF we draft 1 or 2 and get a QB the quality of Stroud, then this is a fine plan.

Personally, I would likely move up a bit for the tackle if better quality is available late in the first. We would get the additional contract year.

 

[0818NePa]

Yes, a top 5 pick is important. Folks seem to think that we have advantages throughout the draft, We do not.

After the first pick, the worst team picks one AFTER the Super Bowl winner throughout the draft (ignoring trades and comp picks). Let's say we are the 1st pick and PHI is pick 32.
============
1. NE gets the first pick.
2. PHI gets 32, NE get 33.
3. PHI gets 65, NE gets 66
4. PHI gets 97, NE gets 98 (actually lower because of comp picks.
4. PHI gets last in the 4th, patriots get first in the 5th (the next pick)
and so on.
===============
BOTTOM LINE
After the results of the first pick, we have slightly less draft resources than the SB winner.

We are kidding ourselves if we think that we make a meaningful step toward the SB by drafting a WR or OT at 4 or 5. There is only one FAST step toward being a good team: getting a top QB. To me, FAST to me means 2-3 years. .

"Yes, a top 5 pick is important. Folks seem to think that we have advantages throughout the draft, We do not."

You are not serious, arent you ?