Some Thoughts On Cap Restructures

[mgteich]

Many folks want us to move money into the future by turning salary into bonus and spreading the cost over future years. Let us presume that the players play out those contracts, so that large amounts of dead money aren't created.

Are we really happy with guys like Smith having 2023 and 2024 cap his of $18M or $19M? How many players do we wish to move lots of salary and have eye-popping future cap hits? I suspect that the same folks who want to move the $22M for the five players would be the same poster complaining about the very high cap hits next year and the year after. (Judon, Henry, Smith, Bourne, Mills and Andrews add up to $22M of opportunity).

The total available is thus the current $13M plus $22M. There are other opportunities. We could cut players, but then they would need to be replaced. We could negotiate contract extensions with those players who would agree to new deals.

Is $35M a lot? We will need $10M just for normal operations in camp and the season.

So, we have $25M to use if we want to push it all forward. That just isn't the way Belichick works. He will keep a couple of the restructures until camp to cover costs such as rookie costs, players on IR, the Practice Squad, players not on the top 51 (the cap until the seasons starts), in-season replacements for injured players, and certain incentives. Belichick might restructure $10M as needed later.

MY GUESS is that it is that is Judon's restructure that might be use before the draft if we really need cap money. So, for now we $13M plus Judon's restructure money for a total of $20M. Without getting rid of Van Noy and Mason, we'd have almost nothing but Judon's restructure to work with. I think that it will be tight being limited to $20M.

This presumes that Belichick is willing to sue more restructures than in the past ($17M total) because of the higher caps in 2023 and 2024.

A BUDGET OF $20M
Belichick can do a lot with $20M. Consider this 4 year contract for a total of $64M or $16M AAV. The 2022 cap is just $6M (1/4 of $16M plus $2M)

EXAMPLE ONE: 4/$64 for a 2022 cap of $6M
BONUS - $16M
2022 - $2M
2023 - $13M
2024- $15M
2025- $18M

EXAMPLE TWO 4/$50M for a 2022 cap of $5M
BONUS - $12M
2022 - $ 2M
2023 - $10M
2024 - $12M
2025 - $14M

Note that higher contracts can be accommodated by raising the salaries for the last 3 years, adding options at the beginning of Year 3, or by adding void years). The 2022 cap hit wouldn't change.

I don't expect more than one or two contracts like this, but they could be accommodated.

More contracts will be signed with lower cap costs.

 

[BTTA]

If I understand correctly, the core problem with front loading with bonuses is that it eventually leads to more dead cap money when the inevitable % of the bonused players are cut in future years, due to declining performance vs. compensation. Every team has the same cap number, even if it goes up every year, so dead cap is always a direct drain on talent acquisition.

So that's the roll of the dice, right? Get more of what we want now, but knowing that unless incredibly lucky, there will be a dead cap price to pay down the road.

 

[1960Pats]

I've never cared about the money in sports but the topic has taken over. I remember the days when all we did was watch players play. Players like Jim Brown, **** Butkus and Johnny U. I call those the good old days.

 

[mgteich]

I've never cared about the money in sports but the topic has taken over. I remember the days when all we did was watch players play. Players like Jim Brown, **** Butkus and Johnny U. I call those the good old days.

No one forcing you to pay attention to the money.

You can still just watch players play.

The big difference is that owners down own players forever, There are mechanisms for players to move from team to team, and players have certain contractual rights.

 

[1960Pats]

No one forcing you to pay attention to the money.

You can still just watch players play.

The big difference is that owners down own players forever, There are mechanisms for players to move from team to team, and players have certain contractual rights.

It's very difficult to avoid the money discussions and it's becoming more difficult to simply watch them play unless I turn down the sound to avoid the announcers.

I think players have more of a say in their situation now than in the old days but it isn't like baseball or basketball. I doubt that it ever will be the same in football

 

[Triumph]

I only mortgage the future IF the Pats have a shot at winning the Super Bowl this year or next.

The Pats are only fringe contenders this season. Too many other AFC teams have most if not all the aforementioned issues fixed.

QB has to improve.
The OL is not complete or better than 2021. We are signing existing players like Brown and celebrating as if its a game changer.
Run defense is not fixed.
Pass defense is questionable. Big hole at CB losing the Pats best DB.
WR has not improved. Myers and Bourne are good, but there is still no # 1 WR.

Big no to restructures of Smith. You can cut him in 2023 and the dead money is palatable. The other idiotic contract of Agahlor runs out this season. Judon has no guaranteed salary in 2023, so evaluate him next off season. Henry produces thank god, evaluate him in 2023. Wynn the turnstile on the left contract expires in 2022 too. Dont go throwing good money after bad just because 3 of your highest paid players are steeling money on payday.

Highest paid
1 Judon
2 Henry
3 Agahlor
4 Smith
5 Wynn

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Having the win now, ignore the future mentality sets a team up for a reset year I also has two hidden pitfalls that I think have impacted the Patriots. The first problem occurs at the end of the wave where you are trying to win one last time before the reset. This can cause teams to reach for players to find the one last piece to make it work. The Sanu trade is a good example. The second problem is the timing of the reset. The success of the turnaround is limited by the free agents available that year, no matter how much money the team has. In some ways the Pats were lucky that they were one of the few teams that had money to spend. It is likely that the signing of Agahlor would not have happened if there were other choices. While it is not fun in the offseason, getting on a more sustainable model is the right approach for ongoing success.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

Carrying money into the future becomes less of a problem if the cap skyrockets. With the new tv deal I expect the cap to continue to rise year over year.

Eventually the bill will come due but the Pats should wait until they are rebuilding to let that happen. Now is the time to strengthen the roster for our developing qb.

 

[Steve102]

I've never cared about the money in sports but the topic has taken over. I remember the days when all we did was watch players play. Players like Jim Brown, **** Butkus and Johnny U. I call those the good old days.

I kinda feel like this sometimes, too. I can remember being able to go to games without taking out a mortgage. Now it's all about the money.

 

[upstater1]

If I understand correctly, the core problem with front loading with bonuses is that it eventually leads to more dead cap money when the inevitable % of the bonused players are cut in future years, due to declining performance vs. compensation. Every team has the same cap number, even if it goes up every year, so dead cap is always a direct drain on talent acquisition.

So that's the roll of the dice, right? Get more of what we want now, but knowing that unless incredibly lucky, there will be a dead cap price to pay down the road.

This is my understanding as well.

When you look at some of the players let go or moved by teams, it's because of the dead cap situation. Ideally you're like the Cowboys who had a cheaper replacement for the RT Collins, but certainly you can get nailed by the dead cap.

I'm hoping some teams will feel they're up against it for post June 1st cuts. So Belichick can sign some FAs.

 

[Wozzy]

Right now the league is in a unique place, the salary cap is about to get a massive bump with a new TV deal so teams are spending like drunken sailors. The money is burning a hole in their pockets. The Saints who were dead last in cap space extended every player on their roster using this money.

But there’s not going to be a new TV deal forthcoming every season for the next decade or two. The cap will go up, but not to this extent. Which means back to the status quo. If those Saints players get hurt, their performance falls off etc they will have pushed all their debt forward and it will catch up. Their recently renewed QB just signed for peanuts and we’ll see if he can remain efficient without Sean Payton keeping a restrictor plate on him.

In short, the “cap doesn’t exist” people are using this upcoming TV deal to plume their feathers and bolster their argument… when anyone who actually understands the cap knows this isn’t sustainable long term.

The Patriots are doing what they have done for over two decades, taking a longview. Myopic negative nancy’s slamming the Pats for not joining the spending spree enjoy this brief respite from cap hell, it will be here again real soon. The Pats are lining up to lead the NFL in available cap space in 2023 with the most quality players already under contract. That’s by design.

 

[1960Pats]

I kinda feel like this sometimes, too. I can remember being able to go to games without taking out a mortgage. Now it's all about the money.

That's another thing about modern sports that this old timer needed to adjust to. I used to spend $1 to see Bill Russell play basketball at the Garden. Now it would cost me what, $1000 or more for a ticket to a game?
The same goes for baseball. A box seat at Fenway when Brady was born was $12. What are they now?
Luckily, I don't follow either sport anymore.

 

[Steve102]

That's another thing about modern sports that this old timer needed to adjust to. I used to spend $1 to see Bill Russell play basketball at the Garden. Now it would cost me what, $1000 or more for a ticket to a game?
The same goes for baseball. A box seat at Fenway when Brady was born was $12. What are they now?
Luckily, I don't follow either sport anymore.

Yeah, I don't have the love for the Red Sox that I once did. For all the good that the current ownership has done IE Championships and Fenway improvements, they are way too reactionary to me. Spend spend spend... then cheap out and finish last... over react and repeat the cycle. As infuriating as the Pats plan is, they are consistent in their vision and how they build the roster.

I have nosebleeds for tonight's B's game... Christmas gift. $350 for three tickets.

 

[mgteich]

Right now the league is in a unique place, the salary cap is about to get a massive bump with a new TV deal so teams are spending like drunken sailors. The money is burning a hole in their pockets. The Saints who were dead last in cap space extended every player on their roster using this money.

But there’s not going to be a new TV deal forthcoming every season for the next decade or two. The cap will go up, but not to this extent. Which means back to the status quo. If those Saints players get hurt, their performance falls off etc they will have pushed all their debt forward and it will catch up. Their recently renewed QB just signed for peanuts and we’ll see if he can remain efficient without Sean Payton keeping a restrictor plate on him.

In short, the “cap doesn’t exist” people are using this upcoming TV deal to plume their feathers and bolster their argument… when anyone who actually understands the cap knows this isn’t sustainable long term.

The Patriots are doing what they have done for over two decades, taking a longview. Myopic negative nancy’s slamming the Pats for not joining the spending spree enjoy this brief respite from cap hell, it will be here again real soon. The Pats are lining up to lead the NFL in available cap space in 2023 with the most quality players already under contract. That’s by design.

We are likely to be a much bigger player in free agency in the next 2-4 years, in the time when much of this 2022 salary becomes dead money, or just limits how much is available.

We will be in very good shape in 2023. And so will a lot of other teams. Some, not so much.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The 2022 draft has to be a huge success similar to this year’s draft, in order to be in position to maximize our potential for the 2023 free agency period.

 

[venecol]

The Pats are lining up to lead the NFL in available cap space in 2023 with the most quality players already under contract. That’s by design.

How many quality players do they have under contract for 2023?

 

[Wozzy]

How many quality players do they have under contract for 2023?

We’ll know after free agency ends, the draft and after seeing some of the young guys get larger opportunities this season.

I suspect the default answer by the Negative Nancy’s here is none, it’s always none.

 

[venecol]

We’ll know after free agency ends, the draft and after seeing some of the young guys get larger opportunities this season.

I suspect the default answer by the Negative Nancy’s here is none, it’s always none.

Right but this applies to all the other teams as well, but this is what you said, so I had to assume you meant current players under contract. So how many quality players do the Pats have under contract in 2023?

The Pats are lining up to lead the NFL in available cap space in 2023 with the most quality players already under contract. That’s by design.

 

[Wozzy]

Right but this applies to all the other teams as well, but this is what you said, so I had to assume you meant current players under contract. So how many quality players do the Pats have under contract in 2023?

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