Concepts some posters could benefit from learning

[RayClay]

why was Yaz less clutch in 1969 or 1970 than in 1967?

Do you mean he hit less than his average?

Because the facts (which you seem to have trouble with) are that at the age of 35, he hit .455 in the AL Championship series against Oakland and .310 in that World Series '75.

His career average was .285. Of course his better years occured when he was younger, but I'm not a statistician like you so I haven't come up with a relevant "expected" average for Yaz to measure those against.

 

[RayClay]

why was Yaz less clutch in 1969 or 1970 than in 1967?

I'm having trouble finding the Red Sox Post season and world Series statistics for those years.

 

[RayClay]

RayClay,

have you had a chance to read any of the articles I linked to?

I'm in graduate school and it's the end of the semester. Actually statistics is about as far from my areas of interest as anything could be, even if I had the time right now.

I'm sure there are some mathematically inclined fans who will read those articles and explain them to you if you ask them nicely.

 

[makewayhomer]

I'm having trouble finding the Red Sox Post season and world Series statistics for those years.

you see that's the problem. you keep eliminating situations you don't think "are clutch enough" and then eventually you're left with just a handful of at bats and then it means nothing

anyways, forget Yaz and go look at any other baseball player and you'll find the #'s say the same thing - clutch hitting is a small skill that is of relatively minor important

 

[makewayhomer]

I'm in graduate school and it's the end of the semester. Actually statistics is about as far from my areas of interest as anything could be, even if I had the time right now.

I'm sure there are some mathematically inclined fans who will read those articles and explain them to you if you ask them nicely.

I'm not the one who needs them to be explained.

look man this discussion isn't going to work if I present you with facts and you ignore them

 

[RayClay]

See above post. The likliehood of that happening is the same as flipping a coin 50 times and getting 35 heads. Does 35 heads out of 50 tries SEEM that crazy?

Yaz WAS clutch in those games, no doubt about it. But we are discussing the factors of being clutch. That is, did Yaz possess an ability to become amazing like that in the most necessary situations only, or was it a factor of luck or something else? We can't possibly know why this rare occurrence happened, we simply know that it DID.

Actually that would be 35 times out of 40, not 50 right? He got 7 hits in 8 at bats(35/50 reduces to 7/10)

If a normal batting average was .500, of course. (his normal was .326.)

 

[emoney_33]

Actually that would be 35 times out of 40, not 50 right? He got 7 hits in 8 at bats(35/50 reduces to 7/10)

If a normal batting average was .500, of course. (his normal was .326.)

No it's 35 out of 50. The probability of 7+ successes in 8 tries with an expected success rate of .326 is .0022, the probability of exactly 35 heads out of 50 flips is .002, 35+ heads out of 50 is .0033, 36+ is .0013.

So all things being equal it is more likely for Yaz to get 7 out of 8 than it is to flip 36+ heads out of 50 tries. But like I said before 8 is such a tiny sample size, the probability differences between a change in one success is really large.

 

[RayClay]

you see that's the problem. you keep eliminating situations you don't think "are clutch enough" and then eventually you're left with just a handful of at bats and then it means nothing

anyways, forget Yaz and go look at any other baseball player and you'll find the #'s say the same thing - clutch hitting is a small skill that is of relatively minor important

No I don't eliminate them. Other teams do. Clutch hitting is not a skill, it is a performance variable.

 

[RayClay]

No it's 35 out of 50. The probability of 7+ successes in 8 tries with an expected success rate of .326 is .0022, the probability of exactly 35 heads out of 50 flips is .002, 35+ heads out of 50 is .0033, 36+ is .0013.

So all things being equal it is more likely for Yaz to get 7 out of 8 than it is to flip 36+ heads out of 50 tries. But like I said before 8 is such a tiny sample size, the probability differences between a change in one success is really large.

7/8=35/50? 7*5=35 8*5=40

What's the success rate of 7/10 then?

 

[makewayhomer]

No I don't eliminate them. Other teams do.

can you explain that?

Clutch hitting is not a skill, it is a performance variable.

can you explain that?

 

[RayClay]

can you explain that?



can you explain that?

1st They play 162 games

2nd Look up a stats web site. look up variable and performance in the glossary.

 

[makewayhomer]

1st They play 162 games

.

I still dont get it

2nd Look up a stats web site. look up variable and performance in the glossary.

so, you've just admitted that you're previous argument is incorrect.

 

[emoney_33]

7/8=35/50? 7*5=35 8*5=40

What's the success rate of 7/10 then?

These are two different distributions. 7/8 is not equal to 35/50 but that is not what I said.

Given 50 tries and a .500 success rate, the probability of 36 or more successes is .0013.

Given 8 tries and a .326 success rate, the probability of 7 or more successes is .0022.

Just using the binomial distribution.


The probability of 7+ successes out of 10 in the coin flip is .1719. The probability of 7+ hits out of 10 for yaz (.326 average) is .0173.

 

[RayClay]

I still dont get it



so, you've just admitted that you're previous argument is incorrect.

In baseball they have a season. It is 162 games. to get to the post season, you have to have already succeeded during the season.

For the purposes of this experiment i have included also the last two games of the 1967 season. Why? Because I deem having to win these two games to continue to be analogous to the postseason in terms of clutchness.

These are the parameters of my experiment. People can make other experiments, but the last 2 games of '67 was my original and all subsequent postseasons are reference points to my inference that Yaz exhibited a degree of clutchness in other clutch situations.

There is a statistical tendency called regression to the mean. Flip 100 coins and it is more likely for the distribution to be close to 50/50 than if you flip 10.

Did Yaz's performance in batting average regress to the mean compared to his
two game performance in 1967 (remember we have not mentioned his '67 World series performance yet)? Of course it did. No one hits .875 in major league baseball.

Did it regress to the mean, in other words like a 50/50 coin flip? Of course 50/50 is not the comparisonas that would equate to a .500 batting average which has never been seen. No, his mean average for '67 was .326 (his highest ever). Career .285.

1967 mean =.326 World Series = .400

Career mean = .285 At age 35 Oakland playoff .455 World series .310 (combined .350)

Perhaps not statistical proof, but no unders and no coin flips whatsoever. Even his lowest is 25 points over his career average after a playoff in which he hit 70 points over his career average. At 35.

 

[RayClay]

I still dont get it



so, you've just admitted that you're previous argument is incorrect.

I am indicating, though I am relatively ignorant in this are, that you are untouched by the insight even a cursory knowledge of the basic terms of this discipline would provide.

 

[makewayhomer]

I am indicating, though I am relatively ignorant in this are, that you are untouched by the insight even a cursory knowledge of the basic terms of this discipline.

you keep saying things like this, and yet you repeatedly and consistently completely ignore statistical studies that are 2000x more accurate and rigorous than your Yaz example. when I try to explain them to you, you ignore me.

but yet I am the one who lacks insight. ok.

 

[RayClay]

These are two different distributions. 7/8 is not equal to 35/50 but that is not what I said.

Given 50 tries and a .500 success rate, the probability of 36 or more successes is .0013.

Given 8 tries and a .326 success rate, the probability of 7 or more successes is .0022.

Just using the binomial distribution.


The probability of 7+ successes out of 10 in the coin flip is .1719. The probability of 7+ hits out of 10 for yaz (.326 average) is .0173.

His average was .326. He hit for an average of .875 in the example. I don't think an analysis could be correct if there is a math error.

Being that a hit/no hit situation could be exactly like a coin flip, I don't know how 7/10 could come into it when we're analyzing 7/8 at bats.

Also a coin flip would regress to .500. The mean here is .326, so the variance is between .326 and .875 which would be greater than .500 to .875.. Seems like a lot to me if the analysis is accurate.

 

[RayClay]

you keep saying things like this, and yet you repeatedly and consistently completely ignore statistical studies that are 2000x more accurate and rigorous than your Yaz example. when I try to explain them to you, you ignore me.

but yet I am the one who lacks insight. ok.

Anybody can click on a link. Do you want me to recite my textbook? I didn't write it, it's the same thing. I gave you multiple opportunities to explain any of it in your own words and you can't.

 

[makewayhomer]

Anybody can click on a link. Do you want me to recite my textbook?

sure, if there is anything in there that will help you understand everything I've been to tell you

I gave you multiple opportunities to explain any of it in your own words and you can't.

umm, I did. want me to copy/paste what I already told you and you ignored?

 

[RayClay]

sure, if there is anything in there that will help you understand everything I've been to tell you



umm, I did. want me to copy/paste what I already told you and you ignored?

Did you figure out what a variable is? That seemed to have you stumped a minute ago.