Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[Simpelton]

This is going to be its own discussion, might as well break it out now with a respectful title rather than one by another anguished fan who lets the suds choose his words for him.

Frankly, neither going for it on 4th and 3 nor the field goal were in any way guaranteed to work. Bill took his shot knowing the chances and it failed.

An argument could be made that going for it was better odds, but nothing guaranteed.

Frankly given the performance of the offensive line, I think Bill/Josh probably made the right call to try the field goal, the OL wasn't holding up well and I'd rather trust my kicker to make a tough FG than trust that OL to hold on a clutch do-or-die play against that DL.

Bottom line the team played way better than the naysayers thought and Mac looked like the real thing throughout. Just didn't quite ome together for us which is normal for a team with new leadership. I think we can bounce back from 1-3 especially since most of the drama is now behind us and the coach can just focus on one game at the time.

Also -- impressed by the defense. That's always been Bill's calling card and it was obvious he did a grreat job of keeping Brady off balance and frustrated. They did a successful bend-don't-break defense against Brady and only the suspect run D got cashed for a TD so that's something to think about.

 

[Dr Pain]

Doing this saved Mac Jones's reputation if he did not get the 3 yards. They were not going to be able to run for it. Tonight was huge for development for Mac Jones, the Patriots lost but Jones outplayed Brady

 

[jah]

This is gonna get compared to that 2009 play against Indy when we *did* go for it on 4th and 2. That was arguably the right call. This? Horrible ****ing decision. Even if Folk hits that (to his credit, he came within inches and had no business making that kick in that weather), Brady has over twice the amount of time he needs to come back and score a field goal of his own.

Before that final drive, I told myself I was gonna let myself just be happy we made it so close no matter how it went. Then the greatest head coach of all time chose to lose on purpose. Hard to take in any sort of moral victory after that.

 

[sb1]

That was a bad call. Even if kick is good you’re leaving a lot of time on the clock and 2 timeouts for the GOAT.

this was right up there imo with 4th and 2 in the book of Bill blunders if he was the one that elected to kick. No way Folk is making that in this weather. He’s not Tucker.

 

[sb1]

Bill lost this game with that call. Sorry

 

[Simpelton]

This is gonna get compared to that 2009 play against Indy when we *did* go for it on 4th and 2. That was arguably the right call. This? Horrible ****ing decision. Even if Folk hits that (to his credit, he came within inches and had no business making that kick in that weather), Brady has over twice the amount of time he needs to come back and score a field goal of his own.

Before that final drive, I told myself I was gonna let myself just be happy we made it so close no matter how it went. Then the greatest head coach of all time chose to lose on purpose. Hard to take in any sort of moral victory after that.

This is what I mean by letting the suds do the talking. Get some sleep man and do yourself a favor, don't post again until morning.

Every play looks like a bad decision when it doesn't work. Looking at the odds as I understand them and given the fact that the OL was getting wrecked all night, the FG was better odds.

 

[Brick27]

Revisionist history is awesome.

 

[Simpelton]

That was a bad call. Even if kick is good you’re leaving a lot of time on the clock and 2 timeouts for the GOAT.

this was right up there imo with 4th and 2 in the book of Bill blunders if he was the one that elected to kick. No way Folk is making that in this weather. He’s not Tucker.

He came pretty close. But you're not considering the alternative properly.

I don't think we convert unless Jones pulls a rabbit out of his hat. And the OL was getting gashed, the run game was nonexistent, and if you're not getting a good push at the line counting on a 4th down conversion is a really, really tall ask.

 

[Mustangs84]

I'm on board with the FG there almost all the time....... However, I made the comment in GDT about going conservative when in the red zone and it being time to ride Mac here considering how he was playing. I would like to have seen him have the chance there to go for that.

 

[Simpelton]

Mac had 3 chances. That's why it was 4th down

 

[Kargetina]

Despicable, nonsensical, cowardly call.

A 56-yarder is a very, very difficult FG in any circumstance let alone in these conditions.

You get a first down, at worst you kick a 52-yarder for the win. You control your own destiny, you have a TO, you can have a couple of plays for a decent FG attempt.

Even if Folk made it, there were 50 seconds and 2 TO’s and it’s Brady with the ball only needing FG range.

Give your young QB a chance to win the game. Horrible decision from every angle.

 

[ashley]

That was a bad call. Even if kick is good you’re leaving a lot of time on the clock and 2 timeouts for the GOAT.

this was right up there imo with 4th and 2 in the book of Bill blunders if he was the one that elected to kick. No way Folk is making that in this weather. He’s not Tucker.

 

[sb1]

He came pretty close. But you're not considering the alternative properly.

I don't think we convert unless Jones pulls a rabbit out of his hat. And the OL was getting gashed, the run game was nonexistent, and if you're not getting a good push at the line counting on a 4th down conversion is a really, really tall ask.

I think we do. Jones was still doing well against that secondary. They should have trusted him to make one more play. Tucker makes a long FG like that in these conditions not Folk. Bad call IMO.

 

[jdlboot14]

there's no good option here. Bill took the conventional wisdom - his kicker hadn't missed in 35 attempts. And, it got as close as it could have without making it - hitting the post was like a gong that signaled the end of the game. HEARTBREAKING

 

[JayNM]

Get the corpses on Hightower and Van Noy dragged by tthose fatties Godsucks and Henry Anderson out of the club.

Making A TON of personnel mistakes on defense, penalty after penalty, downgrading the coaching on the O-line

And now? The most cowardly decision I ever seen.

Mac was SHOWING IT. He deserved that chance.

But NAH. Trust the elderly Kicker with a .6 career on +50 to tie his personal best.

It's half the drinking speaking, half the fact that i have to work in 4 hours, but **** YOU BB, JAKE WAS RIGHT

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This is gonna get compared to that 2009 play against Indy when we *did* go for it on 4th and 2. That was arguably the right call. This? Horrible ****ing decision. Even if Folk hits that (to his credit, he came within inches and had no business making that kick in that weather), Brady has over twice the amount of time he needs to come back and score a field goal of his own.

Before that final drive, I told myself I was gonna let myself just be happy we made it so close no matter how it went. Then the greatest head coach of all time chose to lose on purpose. Hard to take in any sort of moral victory after that.

I agree. I’ve always defended 4th and 2.

The way I saw it, you had with these conditions, maybe at absolute best - I think this is generous - a 50% chance on the kick. Then if he makes it, maybe a 65% chance of stopping Brady from getting 3. So overall, I see that as roughly a 33% chance to win.

If you convert 4th and 3, you’re very close to a sub-50 yard field goal deciding the game. I don’t know the odds there, but against that horrid secondary and within Folk’s range, I imagine you’re closer to a 50% chance overall.

 

[sb1]

These kind of metrics don’t mean much imo. For example- FG probability for who? Folk doesn’t have the range. Should have gone for it.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I would have preferred to go for it, but if that kick were a few inches over, and the defense held . . . I dunno. Tough to know if either play had a chance. I'd vote 4-3 over 56, though. Liked a lot of what I saw, but no moral wins in the NFL. Frustrating ending.

 

[FCB02062]

hate the decision... stupid metrics don't take into the equation that the kicker is hurt and it's pouring rain out

Bill acting like a complete jackazz in post game presser

 

[jah]

This is what I mean by letting the suds do the talking. Get some sleep man and do yourself a favor, don't post again until morning.

Every play looks like a bad decision when it doesn't work. Looking at the odds as I understand them and given the fact that the OL was getting wrecked all night, the FG was better odds.

Why post the thread asking for opinions if you're just gonna patronize people for taking a position?