Reiss: Pats should Thank Niners for Passing on Mac

[PatsFanSince74]

You can also thank Michigan's coach Lloyd Carr for creating phantom question marks about his college career and likely not having his back with NFL coaches during draft chats.

.

Indeed. One of the many things I admire about Tom Brady is his public loyalty to Carr despite actions that, intentionally or unintentionally, were of a nature to upend Brady's career before it started.

BB has been quoted as saying that Carr's platooning of Brady with what's-his-name made him "wonder" about TB12. But, now, who even remembers Drew Hensen anyway?

I'm sure Brady will invite Coach Carr to the unveiling of the statue to #10 outside The Big House.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Without question SF muffed it. How could they screw up so bad? I suspect that they overthought the issue. Mac's topless photo did not help. They were trying to get a Mahomes type, but they screwed up big time. I expect that their GM (Lynch) and his staff will get the boot; the only question is when? After training camp? The offseason? A year or two at the most.

I am pretty sure that in a few years there will be 10-14 teams that will have egg on their face for passing on Mac. SF was the biggest screw up of all, like Draft Day without the happy ending.

 

[Zuma]

Niners Nation Radio: Why Mac Jones wouldn’t be such a bad pick

Deep breaths, people

www.ninersnation.com

"The biggest issue 49ers fans have with taking Jones over those other guys is the fact that he isn’t as mobile as they are, which is clearly true. However, that doesn’t necessarily make him immobile. Despite the dad-bod, Jones did run a 4.79 40 yard dash at his pro-day workout. Patrick Mahomes ran a 4.80 40 yard dash at the Combine, and he has no issues picking up yards with his legs. Are we sure that Mac Jones won’t be able to take off when things break down?"

 

[Sicilian]

Without question SF muffed it. How could they screw up so bad? I suspect that they overthought the issue. Mac's topless photo did not help. They were trying to get a Mahomes type, but they screwed up big time. I expect that their GM (Lynch) and his staff will get the boot; the only question is when? After training camp? The offseason? A year or two at the most.

I am pretty sure that in a few years there will be 10-14 teams that will have egg on their face for passing on Mac. SF was the biggest screw up of all, like Draft Day without the happy ending.

If Trey Lance turns out to be good, then no one will care about the move. It's worth it for a franchise QB, and success does wonders to answer a lot of questions. That said, if the reports that they were set to take Jones and then got cold feet AFTER giving up so much capital to move up, it shouldn't fill 9ers fans with a lot of confidence in Lynch's overall plan. but again, if Lance becomes a franchise guy, that kind of thing will be a footnote.

EDIT: The most interesting part of the move for me, is it was a bold move to trade up and take a guy who's considered more of a raw project. As a GM coming off of a 6-10 year, giving up a lot of assets for a move that may not make you better THIS year is a gamble. If the team underperforms this year and Lance gets his first starts in 2022, there's no guarantee Lynch is even around still to reap the rewards of this move.

 

[1960Pats]

I have zero expectations that 2021-2040 will be anything like 2001-2020. Furthermore, I think that anyone who does should reassess. The probability of repeating that type of success is very very close to 0%.

They've had so much success in the last 20 years that once in a while a huge sh!t-eatin' grin comes across my face (and won't go away) when I reflect on it all. This is one of those times.

In the beginning I would spend the weeks leading up to the SB by watching 3 Games to Glory I, II and III and any other videos I could find. Now that they're up to VI I need all of the two weeks and sometimes that isn't enough to see it all.

It's been a great ride that will never happen again, by the Pats or any other team. I just hope they can find a decent QB to make games more enjoyable.

 

[1960Pats]

Career Sack %

Tom Brady - 4.7% (Protected by an iron wall)
Andrew Luck - 5.0% (Thrown to the wolves)

Luck took 174 career sacks and racked up 332 rushing attempts. It was obvious from year one he played recklessly. The Colts didn’t do a fantastic job with the o-line, but they didn’t fall into some outlier category when it comes to sacks and pressures.

Was this the line’s fault? The play where his shoulder got blown up, lacerated kidney, etc? Trying to cut past defenders like a running back?



This one? On the pass protection?

View attachment 33726

Probably a late hit here….but who is responsible for putting himself in danger?

View attachment 33727

This was a widely accepted understanding about Luck…evidenced by this article in 2016 (and others like it.) The damage was mostly done by that point, as he had sustained major injuries due to his stubbornness. After re-aggravating the injuries a few times, the narrative totally changed to ThE cOlTs DiDnT pToTeCt HiM! and the typical bozos who media driven narratives - like yourself - jumped on board. When Luck retired, the revisionist history took an emotional surge to new levels.

Andrew Luck "reluctantly accepting" need to slide to avoid hits

The Colts have made no secret of their desire to see quarterback Andrew Luck do more to protect himself during games, particularly when he's running out of the pocket on plays like the one that left Luck with a lacerated kidney last season.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

Great post. Those videos are the reason that I don't want my QB running with the ball and why I enjoy seeing the opponent QB do it. You know that every defender wants to put his lights out and they have the ability to do it. That and the fact that running QB's don't last has me hoping that my QB stays in, or moves around in, the pocket.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Great post. Those videos are the reason that I don't want my QB running with the ball and why I enjoy seeing the opponent QB do it. You know that every defender wants to put his lights out and they have the ability to do it. That and the fact that running QB's don't last has me hoping that my QB stays in, or moves around in, the pocket.

No evidence or correlation between QB's that run not lasting in the league.

 

[1960Pats]

When did Brady lead the league in sacks like Luck did in 2016… when did he ever come close? Never is the answer.

There are many causes for sacks and it might be Brady's big brain that keeps his sack numbers down. Plus, he get's rid of the ball quicker than Luck did.

The only negative that I saw from Luck other than his injuries was his inaccuracy. He seemed to sail his passes to the outside and his career completion % is in Cant Newton's range.

 

[1960Pats]

No evidence or correlation between QB's that run not lasting in the league.

You still on that kick?

Here's a simple question but one that I will have to get back to you on later. I have poker at 12. If a running QB stays in the pocket his entire career would his career be shorter or longer?

 

[borg]

More importantly he will end up in an offense where he will be behind a talented OL, with talented WR's and TE's, with an excellent running attack AND in a prolific PRECISION offense that minimizes the need to scramble and "create".

From my lofty perch, I see an ideal offensive roster for Mac to succeed sooner rather than later.
He has a quality+ O line that should protect him as well as plow holes for RBs, leading to a strong play-action game.
He has quick strike pass options galore with the addition of real NFL TEs and veteran 3rd down RBs.
And hopefully NE will identify their next great slot WR.

If NE can establish dominance at the LOS, Mac will thrive IMO.

When you think of the offensive rosters of teams that draft QBs at the very top of the draft and then let their young QBs get their brains beat in behind inadequate O lines, getting coached up typically by new staffs piecemealed together a few months before the season starts, etc etc etc..........,
New England right now is any thing but that.

While I don't think Mac will ever be on a Brady's level, I do believe Mac will be far more prepared to hit the ground running than 4th string Brady ever was.
Sadly, NE will spend too much time at training camp practicing QB sneaks for their no-arm "starter"

Finally.... the common narrative regarding Mac is that he is a vastly overrated QB whose success is primarily due to the all-star cast he was lucky enough to be on the field with. What rarely if ever gets mentioned is the all-star defense he faced daily on the practice fields at Bama, a defense vastly superior to any he faced on Saturdays. If Mac couldn't cut the mustard Monday through Friday, Saban would have replaced the guy with one of the 10 Bama 4-star QBs waiting in the wings.
The glass-half empty crowd will correctly point out the many Bama QBs whose game didn't translate in the NFL.
Tough to argue against ....but.......Mac's off-the-charts accuracy should not be poo pooed as a product of the system and talent.
I rarely saw their stars diving to make circus catches. Mac put the ball on the numbers.....just like we saw at OTAs, unlike Glam.

The Charlie Weiss play calling years were my favorite of the past two decades. Despite leaning on the short passing game, defenses were constantly off balance whether it was with quick screens, TE mismatches, and the elevation of the slot WR role....it was beautiful choreography and young Tompa managed the plan well

The 2.0 version is upon us ,hopefully sooner rather than later.
I'm confident in Mac....and hope Josh is up to the task

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

You still on that kick?

Here's a simple question but one that I will have to get back to you on later. I have poker at 12. If a running QB stays in the pocket his entire career would his career be shorter or longer?

It's not a kick. Too many try to pass off their opinions as fact here. Honestly it's not hard to do a little research to make sure you know what you're talking about.

New Study: Quarterbacks That Run Most Are Not Injured Most ...

Injury proneness of running QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson is ...

 

[PScottman]

As a GM coming off of a 6-10 year, giving up a lot of assets for a move that may not make you better THIS year is a gamble.

Much less of a gamble through keeping Garoppolo. This is another "looking through the lens of the draft as the primary means of team building" response. Yes, QBs and skill position players through the draft, if picked and blossoms into a superstar quickly in year 1-3, is a massive advantage as it gives you greater cap flexibility to spend across the rest of the roster. Yet, often these picks are evaluated ONLY on the pick position and player potential/hype before they take a snap without the context of the other things done to form the team for the upcoming season.

Lynch's risk proposition was lower because he had Garoppolo who can and likely will, play early, and is a known quantity. He can leverage Garoppolo regardless of outcome too - if they win - the Lance pick was a long term strategy - if they lose, it's because Garoppolo has always been a system QB with limits and they can tout the young QB as the savior.

If Lynch has a good PR team - I disagree it's much of a gamble at all frankly.

 

[Hyped]

Side note: I was out for Happy Hour here in San Diego on the Friday of the weekend leading up to the 4th....and I saw Lynch come in with his family for drinks/dinner.

 

[50-yard-line]

It's not a kick. Too many try to pass off their opinions as fact here. Honestly it's not hard to do a little research to make sure you know what you're talking about.

New Study: Quarterbacks That Run Most Are Not Injured Most ...
Injury proneness of running QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson is ...

The only quibble I have with this line of thinking are the nicks and bruises. A tweaked hamstring or a bruised shoulder might not put someone on the injury report, but will affect accuracy and arm strength. I just don't trust those meta numbers, because pocket passers also get hurt outside the box. Jimmy G outside the pocket is an ambulance ride waiting to happen.

Mahomes hurt his foot on a run. Newton ruined his shoulder (and his career) on an attempted tackle. The league has worked hard to reduce injuries to QBs in the pocket - can't hit low, can't land on top with a pile drive, etc. - but once a QB starts running around, bad things can happen. Those pocket protections weren't in place for guys like Vick and McNair.

It's one thing to roll out and throw, or take off for the sidelines (Wilson) and quite another for a QB to want to stretch and get those few extra yards.

 

[Sicilian]

Much less of a gamble through keeping Garoppolo. This is another "looking through the lens of the draft as the primary means of team building" response. Yes, QBs and skill position players through the draft, if picked and blossoms into a superstar quickly in year 1-3, is a massive advantage as it gives you greater cap flexibility to spend across the rest of the roster. Yet, often these picks are evaluated ONLY on the pick position and player potential/hype before they take a snap without the context of the other things done to form the team for the upcoming season.

Lynch's risk proposition was lower because he had Garoppolo who can and likely will, play early, and is a known quantity. He can leverage Garoppolo regardless of outcome too - if they win - the Lance pick was a long term strategy - if they lose, it's because Garoppolo has always been a system QB with limits and they can tout the young QB as the savior.

If Lynch has a good PR team - I disagree it's much of a gamble at all frankly.

An interesting point for sure. I'm not sure what Lynch's relationship with ownership is like right now, so it's entirely possible that there's an agreement for a longer term plan. I just feel like all GM (and coaching) jobs are at risk, especially coming off a bad season. If Jimmy gets hurt again, and Lance isn't ready yet, are they going to be better this year? So now facing back to back 6-10 season (for an example) and not having a first round pick in 2022, Lynch's rep takes a tough hit. That's the gamble to me.

 

[PScottman]

That's the gamble to me.

Interesting. I guess I judge risk based on what's in hand versus what might happen because its in my control (or at least much more in my control). The variables of what might happen - infinite and unknowable. Lance could get a sliver in his finger going up a staircase that works its way to the nerve and he loses all touch throwing. Stupid and unlikely - sure, but a variable and possibility nonetheless.

 

[zydecochris]

The only quibble I have with this line of thinking are the nicks and bruises. A tweaked hamstring or a bruised shoulder might not put someone on the injury report, but will affect accuracy and arm strength. I just don't trust those meta numbers, because pocket passers also get hurt outside the box. Jimmy G outside the pocket is an ambulance ride waiting to happen.

Mahomes hurt his foot on a run. Newton ruined his shoulder (and his career) on an attempted tackle. The league has worked hard to reduce injuries to QBs in the pocket - can't hit low, can't land on top with a pile drive, etc. - but once a QB starts running around, bad things can happen. Those pocket protections weren't in place for guys like Vick and McNair.

It's one thing to roll out and throw, or take off for the sidelines (Wilson) and quite another for a QB to want to stretch and get those few extra yards.

Good point, there are different types of QB runs. It is one thing to run for the sidelines or take off and then go into a slide before being tackled.

It is something very different to try to bull through tacklers. Andrew Luck was a big strong QB who often tried to pick up extra yards running, and he is out of the league. Big Ben was another big strong runner who, at least early in his career, would try to extend plays that way, and he has had his share of injuries.

However, the best example should be staring us in the face, as he is currently the Pats starting QB. I watched Newton in college and he was a physical marvel, big, strong, fast, shifty. He terrorized college defenses, he simply ran over those poor college DBs and many LBs (heck, he was bigger and stronger than most of those college LBs). And, that continued somewhat in the NFL, he still fought for extra yards against NFL players, I have one clip from a run against Atlanta where he gets hit by 8-9 players: NewtonRunningThroughTackles. But, I think it is obvious those hits throughout the years have taken a heavy toll on his body. His throwing motion is completely different than earlier in his career. I don't know if it is his shoulder, his legs, or just the general wear and tear getting hit so often, especially on designated runs. With a few exceptions, most RBs have a limited shelf life due to all of the hits, why wouldn't that be true with Cam also with all of the designated runs over the years?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It's not a kick. Too many try to pass off their opinions as fact here. Honestly it's not hard to do a little research to make sure you know what you're talking about.

New Study: Quarterbacks That Run Most Are Not Injured Most ...
Injury proneness of running QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson is ...

I don't disagree about the major injury factor, but I'd like to see the trends on all these guys with their rusing attempts, because it seems like a pretty clear pattern that most running QBs tend to decrease in rush attempts and rush efficiency as their careers go on. Just look at the drop off from for running backs and receivers in their late 20s/early 30s and apply it to QBs. For running production, QBs usually hit their peak performance very early.

 

[borg]

New Study: Quarterbacks That Run Most Are Not Injured Most ...
Injury proneness of running QBs like Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson is ...

Lot of 56% career passers on this list
And a lot of running threat QBs who stopped running around year 6.

Young is the outlier

 

[zydecochris]

Finally.... the common narrative regarding Mac is that he is a vastly overrated QB whose success is primarily due to the all-star cast he was lucky enough to be on the field with. What rarely if ever gets mentioned is the all-star defense he faced daily on the practice fields at Bama, a defense vastly superior to any he faced on Saturdays. If Mac couldn't cut the mustard Monday through Friday, Saban would have replaced the guy with one of the 10 Bama 4-star QBs waiting in the wings.
The glass-half empty crowd will correctly point out the many Bama QBs whose game didn't translate in the NFL.

Nice post. And to support your argument, most observers assumed that 5 star QB recruit Bryce Young, the top rated dual threat QB prospect (and Saban’s highest ranked QB recruit ever) would unseat Mac last year. Mac had different ideas