DRAFT BGC 2021 Pats Big Board - Draft Thread

[long distance]

DEFENSE

IDL - People are expecting upgrade here but i doubt it will come early. Firstly they signed 5 IDLs in FA and secondly it is a weak draft at the top and quite deep further down with similar potential/value prospects of very different profiles. Which is probably not a coincidence There are multiple question marks with everyone and not a big difference between Barmore (prob going in 1st) or some guys that will be available on Day 3. I have some binkies earlier but i wouldn't stress myself over anyone.

EDGE - another position people want to see as need but the reality is Pats heavily invested in this position in FA - and probably for good reason. Paye is as PTP as it gets but id be surprised if the take one early or even before 4th round. There are plenty interesting options later in the draft (Elerson Simth, Roche, Cooper, Weaver, Sample, Dayo, Ade, maybe Turner.. i wouldn't be surprised if they wait all the way to UDFA territory where there could still be guys like Hayes, Golston, jackson etc)

LB - We all assume Hightower will play but until i see him at Foxboro its not a given. It was reported that all opt-outs will be returning and so far 3 are already gone. In any case there is a place for another starting/rotational LB so this is legitimate option even in early rounds. Zaven Collins should be a great fit and i wouldn't mind him even at #15, but there will be plenty of solid options further down so no need to force it (Bolton and Cox are “falling“, McGrone and Barnes would be great options later, Barmore as more of an edgy kind, Rumpf, KJ Britt later..)

DB - Didnt have time to watch much of the class but with questions marks regarding future of both Gilly and JC and D-Mac age this might be one of the most exciting positions to watch for. Its a very deep class and i expect at least 3 CB ans 2 S either drafted or UDFA. Lately they were ore successful finding them at the bottom. Id prefer extending Gilmore and double dip in middle and later rounds but i wouldn't mind Surtain or Horn at all

 

[cmasspatsfan]

This is getting interesting for Pats, might be a QB or could be defense.

 

[BobDigital]

I'd be interested to see Bacon's take on Jones. Overall my thoughts are i'm just glad we got a QB first and foremost. The fact we didn't tradelike the Bears Lance is interesting. I don't think the cost would have been unreasonable. That might be the only second guess. Jumping from 11 to 15 is a very possible move if they believed in Fields over Jones to a strong degree.

 

[captain stone]

I'd be interested to see Bacon's take on Jones. Overall my thoughts are i'm just glad we got a QB first and foremost. The fact we didn't tradelike the Bears Lance is interesting. I don't think the cost would have been unreasonable. That might be the only second guess. Jumping from 11 to 15 is a very possible move if they believed in Fields over Jones to a strong degree.

Yep, Bill's made it clear as crystal what he thinks about Fields...I wonder if da Bears would've accepted a package of 15, 122, 188 & next year's 2nd-rounder for #11...

 

[long distance]

Some thoughts on Day 1

1. Draft started w SF as predicted and it immediately became Pats friendly. If Jones was the pick at #3 NE would not be in play for QB since teams were willing to move up for Lance and Fields acc. to Lombardi would not be an option (and also be taken earlier).
BB was willing to wait which speaks to both reading the room and not being sold on QBs - so business as usual. One thing BB knows and goes by better than anyone is that there is always another player.. and same goes for QB . there will always be another one available down the road.
I understand his patience is frustrating for many fans but that is the key to long-term success. In the end the draft came to him - like so many things before - it was the most sensible move to take QB as i argued yesterday.

2. AFCE is getting stronger but it was not too bad from Pats perspective.
Miami taking Waddle hurt - if he stays healthy he will make more problems to Pats D than Pitts would (look at Waller's prod vs BB). Shiftiness and speed are bend not break killers and Fuller-Waddle combo if healthy could be a problem. Then again Tua has limitations so not to be too worried. They got edge1 on most boards but i was actually glad and surprised they didn't go for Paye. I don't see Phillips as too much of a problem to defend w Pats OL. Despite missing on Pitts taking WR over OL was a smart move bc the drop from top 4 receivers to the next tier is so much bigger than at OL (and it proved with even Jenkins still available). Same for CIN.
Jete will be a tough gig for little boy Zach and Darnold 2.0 is def not out of the question despite better FO/coaching.
Trading up for Vera-Tucker was the worst move of the night (and there were plenty head-scratchers). Giving up 2 top 90 picks for a guard in such quality and deep OL class is insanity esp. for a team that could desperately use adding more talent. This made Minnesota the big winners of the night they got Darrisaw (who has big problems with attitude on the field so no slam dunk but if they can turn him into professional he has significantly higher ceiling than V-T)
Bills taking Rousseau is good news for Pats imo. He's a nice kid but has an uphill battle. At least he ended up on a well run team so he will have every chance.

3. Head scratchers
Dallas was probably in shock after both Horn and Surtain were snatched right in front of them - they reacted well with moving back and getting valuable #70 pick - and then made terrible move taking Parsons over Farley or even Newsome not to mention Slater. I was glad though
Mayock is giving Jete run for their money drafting character guy at #17 and player who will be average but he will then have no prob paying him top OT second contract just to prove his point.
Jamin Davis was one of my early binkies when he was a Day 3 deep sleeper and a regular in my mocks but going in the 1st round let alone #19 is rich as hell for the few flashes he showed on tape. This can easily turn into Mingo pick.
Turner was another Day 3 binkie not long ago making it into 1st round.
Giants let Philly steal DeVonta, are then able to recover with great trade down and big 2022 haul incl 1rd - and then with ble chip players still on board take gadget Toney. I cant understand how professional people can get so fixated. In the end it felt like ST coaches pick

The only thing that did not go Pats way was a late run on CBs that took away even Stokes. On the other hand that contributed to the fall of great OL prospects and i hope BB takes advantage of that with the next pick and skips DBs in the second for a change!

All in all a very nice night for NE . Day 2 is always the best day of the Draft and its great Pats kept all their capital intact.

 

[DaBruinz]

3. Head scratchers
Dallas was probably in shock after both Horn and Surtain were snatched right in front of them - they reacted well with moving back and getting valuable #70 pick - and then made terrible move taking Parsons over Farley or even Newsome not to mention Slater. I was glad though

In regards to Dallas taking Parsons. Dallas just lost Aldon Smith to the Seahawks. They also lost Sean Lee to retirement. Vander Esch was only healthy for his rookie season. He's missed 13 games over the last 2 seasons. Jerry is a big believer in having a "Big PLAY" LB. Something that Vander Esch hasn't shown to be. Dallas has 2 competent corners and Anthony Brown and Trevion Diggs. They also like Lewis and Goodwin as backups since they gave them both multi-year deals.

I'm more surprised that he didn't address his OTconsidering he lost Cam Erving and Tyron Smith is in his 11th season.

 

[long distance]

In regards to Dallas taking Parsons. Dallas just lost Aldon Smith to the Seahawks. They also lost Sean Lee to retirement. Vander Esch was only healthy for his rookie season. He's missed 13 games over the last 2 seasons. Jerry is a big believer in having a "Big PLAY" LB. Something that Vander Esch hasn't shown to be. Dallas has 2 competent corners and Anthony Brown and Trevion Diggs. They also like Lewis and Goodwin as backups since they gave them both multi-year deals.

I'm more surprised that he didn't address his OTconsidering he lost Cam Erving and Tyron Smith is in his 11th season.

Never understood the Vander Esch hype. His average tackles in college were 4y from the LOS! But people see big, fast guy that is white (meaning underdog) and moves well and they are in love. At least he was LB and did decent enough. Parsons first has to learn to play LB if that is what they had in mind. Can he? I would not bet on it.

If we ignore the fact that they are replacing character issue with character issue. Jerry's like an addict and he should find another hobby if he wants to see some success in his lifetime..

 

[long distance]

@BaconGrundleCandy @reamer - do we have some Day 3 corners we really like?

 

[long distance]

Our boy.. Here's to Zaven in NE 2024

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I'd be interested to see Bacon's take on Jones. Overall my thoughts are i'm just glad we got a QB first and foremost. The fact we didn't tradelike the Bears Lance is interesting. I don't think the cost would have been unreasonable. That might be the only second guess. Jumping from 11 to 15 is a very possible move if they believed in Fields over Jones to a strong degree.

Like many of Bill's picks he wouldn't have been my choice but like you I'm happy we have a QB with some promise/hope. I like Mac a lot tbh just don't like the value here. I've said he's a Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G type/tier QB for months now (which isn't a bad thing, some posters didn't like that but I'm seeing those comps today). Good QB's that can handle/process info, adjust and deliver accurate passes. Guys that look right, things look right-like they should be. Guys that aren't going to hurt you but at the same time they aren't making players better, they're efficient and keep things moving. So again the value wasn't there for me, obviously Bill/Josh & co felt different.

Ultimately landing spot matters and if it's 30% for everyone else it's 40-50% for QB's. Jones landed in a Lamborghini though. Him & Mills were probably the best MOF passers in last year and we're set there as we've been discussing since we made the signings. The biggest advantage he had in college was his OL, we're set there if we stay healthy. Defense is weird and doesn't really translate so we could be a lot better there as well. Obviously our coaching is top notch. Mac needs all that and some to make it work but we have that. Seemingly we're set up to compete day one. Or at least we should be, Cam or Mac. I'm not putting crazy expectations on Mac but he's the 15th overall pick on a team that on paper is pretty good. He shouldn't be sitting game 1 imo. If he can't beat out Cam we're in trouble. Cam will come in hot. This is his last round in the fight but if Mac can't KO shaky-legs Cam why would you take him at 15? I think Cam is going to be better but this has to be Mac's team. I said a few days ago whoever the guy is has to win the job clean bc Bill isn't handing the job to anyone and isn't making a move to make a move. If Cam comes out on fire, looks the part he has a decent chance. We heard it last night 2 minutes after we picked Jones, "Cam is our starter."

I genuinely believe Bill & Josh signed off on this considering Josh is going to be hip to hip with him. Maybe Kraft too. Doesn't feel like a Bill pick, who knows. Like we waited, he fell. This wasn't an urgent pick, plenty of opportunities to jump up for Fields or Mac and they did neither. I feel like Bill gave clearance and basically Josh picked the guy he would be most comfortable working with towards success. Bill made the pick but I honestly believe Josh is the one picked the guy after the team spent what they did in FA to get this thing back on track.

As for Mac the player. His arm gets called into question a lot but truthfully it's his biggest asset to date. Obviously not his velocity or strength but he has very good placement, touch - accuracy. He can later it in there, in between defenders. It's not great (Burrow is great, just so we're in reality) but really good is more than enough and strength can easily improve.

Most credit his mechanics, which aren't bad but most aren't Bacon. Let's be honest the draft is a summer hot spot outsiders come to thinking they own the place. Bacon is a dirty townie that calls that ****hole home. Mac's mechanics aren't bad but aren't in their final form or utilized properly. Footwork isn't the problem here, that breaks down when he's moved off his spot and has to reset. Forget about "running", some are stuck on this, this is pocket issue. He base and feet are balanced, decent weight distribution but could be a little better. Footwork is a + overall
Tough to look for bc he was kept clean so often (seriously that OL was crazy, everyone will be drafted and play, Neal might be a lottery pick next year), some plays don't stand out and narratives get set but his throwing motion could be tweaked a bit some as well. Launch point, follow through could be looked at imo. That would go a long way. Both can be fixed to an extent although I'm not an expert.

I love his anticipation. He had his hand held but he knew what was going on. Everyone talks about his comp % which doesn't matter to me tbh. You have to understand what each guy is doing or trying to do to really appreciate those stats. 60% of the time he passed behind the los, screens or it was an RPO. Beyond that, between design, OL, WR's he had a clean pocket, ton of time and a lot or stuff was predetermined. Like just bc a QB looks a certain side or w/e doesn't mean that's a "read". So again it helps to know what each team/QB was trying to do. Still Jones passes with really good anticipation. He doesn't panic or advertise, he knows exactly what's up and hits his target with great timing. Ball is moving before his target is looking for the ball. He really displays knowledge for the system, you can tell he was studying while waiting. It sticks out in this area. His behavior, movements and actions on the field speak to someone in control. He doesn't have the greatest poise when things are breaking down, feet get a little happy but he's in command, in control of the situation, down & distance and what's in front of him. Knows where/who his hot reads are but the closer pressure comes in the harder it is for him to locate.

Played big in big games. College was a mess last year and SEC was no different. That said he played great in the biggest games which matter a lot more than what conference you're in.

Release is good not great (again like the Burrow comp, look to Jimmy coming out. Much quicker release and quicker feet tbh) Good enough though

His upside or peak isn't a secret. He could absolutely improve on a few things as I mentioned above but it's his mental game that will take him to the next level imo. Don't ignore the obvious. He's not going to get much for accurate. Strength and velocity could improve but he'll probably never have a top tier arm in that sense. You never stop learning though. The nuances and little things that most will try to power through. Studying individual tendencies and tells. Which DC likes this call against this alignment or formation. He could be a little quicker overall. From getting the ball out, release, handing it off, the way he handles himself and others. Certainly not bad but again if we're talking about maximizing here he needs to be on fire doing those things, nothing is slow or robotic.

I'm happy bc I'm a Pats fan first and I root for everyone. Not this player or coach. Whether I love the player doesn't matter, he's a Pat. We absolutely need a QB and even though I might not have picked him I can recognize his talent and abilities. I think he's starting day one although I absolutely believe Cam will be ready.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

I don't really see this as a deep draft. Imo this year really is a 3-4 round draft. Esp IDL, QB, Tackle ... Curious how we attack some positions this year. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see us trade up more than down after 15. Seems like a good year to go get your guys with the opt outs, lots of picks and depth of the overall class.

great calls!

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

great calls!

Thanks. Once and a while I get lucky.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Looking at your board, still a ways to go until Patriots, but some good options still:

SPENCER BROWN * OT

DAVIYON NIXON DT

BARON BROWNING LB

JAMES WIGGINS S

BOBBY BROWN DT

CAM SAMPLE EDGE

SHI SMITH WR

DYAMI BROWN WR

ELIJAH MOLDEN CB

Anyone dropping that is worth trading up to grab?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Looking at your board, still a ways to go until Patriots, but some good options still:

SPENCER BROWN * OT

DAVIYON NIXON DT

BARON BROWNING LB

JAMES WIGGINS S

BOBBY BROWN DT

CAM SAMPLE EDGE

SHI SMITH WR

DYAMI BROWN WR

ELIJAH MOLDEN CB

Anyone dropping that is worth trading up to grab?

Sample, Smith, Browning, Brown

 

[50-yard-line]

Sample, Smith, Browning, Brown

Is Meinerz gone?

EDIT: NM, thought you had him as a Day 2.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Bill on grading prospects

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

More info which is a good thing but I'm pretty sure we could have guessed this or knew it to an extent. In other words we know they probably have tons of tags of different prospects. Injuries, age, familiarity with system, production, experience, level of competition ... Anyone serious about prospect eval is taking all these things into account already. I know he won't ever go into detail in public but I wish he would at some point.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Mentioned this before the draft a few times and it looks like it coming true. We've stuck with two teams like have in past. Either making the most of our visits at places or just like what they're doing there. Or both. But we have no problem shopping at the same schools year after year. Also continuing the trend of drafting teammates. NEP have to lead the charge with selecting teammates.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Pats have 177, 188, 197 & 242 left.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Only had 3 guys on my list. Perkins & Barmore were both on, for a while but I took them off for different reasons. Didn't think we'd have the chance to get CB & Perkins didn't test well compared to others. Not bad, about 15-16 prospects over the last 3 years. Thought I'd do a little better but I'll get 'em next year.