Week 13 Maps & other NFL pre-games discussion

[jmt57]

The Week 13 TV Maps are up, prior to the final game of Week 12 kicking off. The Patriots game at the LA Chargers takes a back seat in the late time slot to Philadelphia at Green Bay. Kevin Harlan and Trent Green will call the Pats game on CBS.

Due to postponements there are two games on Monday, and another on Tuesday. As a result Fox has just four games on Sunday, two in each time slot. One of those games will be played in a neutral site due to local health restrictions.

Most of the country (including the Boston area) gets Cleveland at Tennessee and New Orleans at Atlanta for the early game.

National Broadcasts

• Sunday Night: Denver @ Kansas City (NBC)
• Monday 5:00 PM ET: Washington @ Pittsburgh (FOX) (Kevin Burkhardt, Daryl Johnston)
• Monday Night: Buffalo vs San Francisco (in Arizona) (ESPN/ABC)
• Tuesday Night: Dallas @ Baltimore (FOX/NFLN)

CBS Late

Red: Philadelphia @ Green Bay; Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Blue: New England @ LA Chargers; Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

CBS Early

Red: Cleveland @ Tennessee; Ian Eagle, Charles Davis
Blue: Indianapolis @ Houston; Greg Gumbel, Rich Gannon
Green: Cincinnati @ Miami; Andrew Catalon, James Lofton
Yellow: Las Vegas @ NY Jets; Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta
Orange: Jacksonville @ Minnesota; Beth Mowins, Jay Feely

Fox

Early:
Green: New Orleans @ Atlanta; Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma
Yellow: Detroit @ Chicago; Kevin Kugler, Chris Spielman
Late:
Blue: NY Giants @ Seattle; Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth
Orange: LA Rams @ Arizona; Chris Myers, Brock Huard, Greg Jennings

.

 

[captain stone]

Arooga"s it is then...

 

[Wordsmyth]

Poop. Was hoping to catch the game.

 

[jmt57]

Odds as of Thursday 12/3:

AFC Games
2-8-1 Bengals at 7-4 Dolphins (-11½)
7-4 Colts (-3½) at 4-7 Texans
6-5 Raiders (-8½) at 0-11 Jets
8-3 Browns at 8-3 Titans (-5½)
5-6 Patriots at 3-8 Chargers (pk)
4-7 Broncos at 10-1 Chiefs (-14)

Inter-conference Games
1-10 Jaguars at 5-6 Vikings (-10)
8-3 Bills (pk) at 5-6 Forty Niners (5-6)
4-7 Washington at 11-0 Steelers (-8)
3-8 Cowboys at 6-5 Ravens (-7)

NFC Games
4-7 Lions at 5-6 Bears (-3)
9-2 Saints (-3) at 4-7 Falcons
4-7 Giants at 8-3 Seahawks (-10)
7-4 Rams (-3) at 6-5 Cardinals
3-7 Eagles at 8-3 Packers (-8½)

Bye
7-5 Buccaneers, 4-8 Panthers

 

[captain stone]

Wouldn't surprise if the Loins win one for their new/interim HC at Chicago...Bears suck, especially on offense.

 

[jmt57]

Thanks to multiple postponements that eventually led to a Wednesday afternoon game (!), there was no Thursday Night Football this week - but we will have two games Monday, and another on Tuesday.

If the season were to end today the Patriots, Ravens and 49ers would be among the teams in the undesirable position of being not good enough to make the playoffs, while at the same time not being bad enough to receive a top-ten draft pick.

In a bit of an anomaly the Bills dropped from #3 to #4 despite winning last week, due to the Titans victory over the Colts. Tennessee moved from #5 to #3, while Indy plummeted from #4 to #7. Miami jumped up from #9 to #6 with a win over the hapless Jets, plus losses by the Raiders and Ravens. The Dolphins have another easy game this week (Bengals), but finish against teams with a combined record of 29-15.

Over in the NFC the Rams and Seahawks flip flopped the #2 and #5 seeds. The Giants - who started 1-7 (with their sole victory at that point due to their opponent deciding to go for two rather than continue to overtime) and were considered to be the second worst team in the league - now find themselves as the #4 seed in the conference. By virtue of their third loss in a row the Eagles moved from a #19 pick in the draft to #6. Dallas owns the worst record in the NFC - yet at the same time, is one game away from hosting a playoff game.

Current AFC Playoff Teams​

1. Steelers (AFC North leader) – 11-0 overall / 4-0 division / 8-0 conference

Remaining games: vs Washington (4-7), at Bills (8-3), at Bengals (2-8-1), vs Colts (7-4), at Browns (8-3)

2. Chiefs (AFC West leader) – 10-1 overall / 3-1 division / 8-1 conference

Remaining games: vs Broncos (4-7), at Dolphins (7-4), at Saints (9-2), vs Falcons (4-7), vs Chargers (3-8)

3. Titans (AFC South leader) – 8-3 overall / 3-1 division / 6-3 conference

Remaining games: vs Browns (8-3), at Jaguars (1-10), vs Lions (4-7), at Packers (8-3), at Texans (4-7)

4. Bills (AFC East leader) – 8-3 overall / 4-0 division / 6-2 conference

Remaining games: at 49ers (5-6), vs Steelers (11-0), at Broncos (4-7), at Patriots (5-6), vs Dolphins (7-4)

5. Browns (First wild card) – 8-3 overall / 2-2 division / 5-3 conference

Remaining games: at Titans (8-3), vs Ravens (6-5), at Giants (4-7), at Jets (0-11), vs Steelers (11-0)

6. Dolphins (Second wild card) – 7-4 overall / 2-2 division / 4-3 conference

Remaining games: vs Bengals (2-8-1), vs Chiefs (10-1), vs Patriots (5-6), at Raiders (6-5), at Bills (8-3)

7. Colts (Third wild card) – 7-4 overall / 1-2 division / 3-4 conference

Remaining games: at Texans (4-7), at Raiders (6-5), vs Texans (4-7), at Steelers (11-0), vs Jaguars (1-10)

Within Two Games​

8. Raiders – 6-5 overall / 3-1 division / 4-3 conference

Remaining games: at Jets (0-11), vs Colts (7-4), vs Chargers (3-8), vs Dolphins (7-4), at Broncos (4-7)

9. Ravens – 6-5 overall / 2-2 division / 4-5 conference

Remaining games: vs Cowboys (3-8), at Browns (8-3), vs Jaguars (1-10), vs Giants (4-7), at Bengals (2-8-1)

10. Patriots – 5-6 overall / 2-1 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: at Chargers (3-8), at Rams (7-4), at Dolphins (7-4), vs Bills (8-3), vs Jets (0-11)

Current NFC Playoff Teams​

1. Saints (NFC South leader) – 9-2 overall / 4-0 division / 7-1 conference

Remaining games: at Falcons (4-7), at Eagles (3-7-1), vs Chiefs (10-1), vs Vikings (5-6), at Panthers (4-8)

2. Seahawks (NFC West leader) 8-3 overall / 2-2 division / 6-2 conference
Remaining games: vs Giants (4-7), vs Jets (0-11), at Washington (4-7), vs Rams (7-4), at 49ers (5-6)

3. Packers (NFC North leader) – 8-3 overall / 3-1 division / 6-2 conference
Remaining games: vs Eagles (3-7-1), at Lions (4-7), vs Panthers (4-8), vs Titans (8-3), at Bears (5-6)

4. Giants (see NFC East below) – 4-7

5. Rams (First wild card) – 7-4 overall / 1-2 division / 7-2 conference

Remaining games: at Cardinals (6-5), vs Patriots (5-6), vs Jets (0-11), at Seahawks (8-3), vs Cardinals (6-5)

6. Buccaneers (Second wild card) – 7-5 overall / 2-2 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: vs Vikings (5-6), at Falcons (4-7), at Lions (4-7), vs Falcons (4-7)

7. Cardinals (Third wild card) – 6-5 overall / 2-1 division / 4-3 conference

Remaining games: vs Rams (7-4), at Giants (4-7), vs Eagles (3-7-1), vs 49ers (5-6), at Rams (7-4)

Within Two Games​

8. Vikings – 5-6 overall / 3-1 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: vs Jaguars (1-10), at Bucs (7-5), vs Bears (5-6), at Saints (9-2), vs Lions (4-7)

9. Bears – 5-6 overall / 1-2 division / 5-4 conference

Remaining games: vs Lions (4-7), vs Texans (4-7), at Vikings (5-6), at Jaguars (1-10), vs Packers (8-3)

10. 49ers – 5-6 overall / 2-2 division / 3-5 conference

Remaining games: vs Bills (8-3), vs Washington (4-7), at Cowboys (3-8), at Cardinals (6-5), vs Seahawks (8-3)

11. Lions – 4-7 overall / 0-3 division / 3-5 conference

Remaining games: at Bears (5-6), vs Packers (8-3), at Titans (8-3), vs Bucs (7-5), vs Vikings (5-6)

12. Washington – 4-7

13. Falcons – 4-7 overall / 1-2 division / 2-7 conference
Remaining games: vs Saints (9-2), at Chargers (3-8), vs Bucs (7-5), at Chiefs(10-1), at Bucs (7-5)

NFC Least​

4. Giants (NFC East leader) – 4-7 overall / 3-2 division / 3-6 conference
Remaining games: at Seahawks (8-3), vs Cardinals (6-5), vs Browns (8-3), at Ravens (6-5), vs Cowboys (3-8)

12. Washington (NFC #2) – 4-7 overall / 3-2 division / 3-5 conference
Remaining games: at Steelers (11-0), at 49ers (5-6), vs Seahawks (8-3), vs Panthers (4-8), at Eagles (3-7-1)

15. Eagles (NFC #3) – 3-7-1 overall / 2-2 division / 3-4 conference

Remaining games: at Packers (8-3), vs Saints (9-2), at Cardinals (6-5), at Cowboys (3-8), vs Washington (4-7)

16. Cowboys (NFC #4) – 3-8 overall / 1-3 division / 3-6 conference
Remaining games: at Ravens (6-5), at Bengals (2-8-1), vs 49ers (5-6), vs Eagles (3-7-1), at Giants (4-7)

.

 

[jmt57]

Wouldn't surprise if the Loins win one for their new/interim HC at Chicago...Bears suck, especially on offense.

Yeah, I agree. Atlanta and Houston improved with a change at head coach.

I expected Detroit to be much better than they were this year, and Chicago to be bad. The Lions were 0-8 last year when Stafford was injured; I figured with him back they'd at least be about a .500 team.

A lot of people were touting the Bears and their defense early in the season, but in reality they were winning against bad teams (NYG, Atl, Car). The Bears have lost five in a row, that's got to be tough to rebound from. They rank near or at the bottom in all team rushing stats, which results in Trubisky or Foles throwing the ball far too often.

looking back, it is amazing to think that Chicago defeated Tampa earlier this season.

 

[sb1]

10. Patriots – 5-6 overall / 2-1 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: at Chargers (3-8), at Rams (7-4), at Dolphins (7-4), vs Bills (8-3), vs Jets (0-11)

Pats play 3 winning teams in their last 5. The Jets suck but the Chargers are better than their record shows.
Teams ahead of them in the WC race:
Browns: 3 winning teams
Dolphins: 2
Colts: 2
Raiders: 2
Ravens: 1

That's a very steep uphill climb. That's why they really needed the Texans game - if they had done that they would be #8 and knocking on the door with a 5-3 AFC record which compares favorably with the teams ahead of them.

This season in the end will be all about the coulda shoulda wouldas and that's why they'll fall short imo. Next year with a likely third place schedule and a better roster hopefully, I think they'll be back in the picture.

 

[jmt57]

10. Patriots – 5-6 overall / 2-1 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: at Chargers (3-8), at Rams (7-4), at Dolphins (7-4), vs Bills (8-3), vs Jets (0-11)

Pats play 3 winning teams in their last 5. The Jets suck but the Chargers are better than their record shows.
Teams ahead of them in the WC race:
Browns: 3 winning teams
Dolphins: 2
Colts: 2
Raiders: 2
Ravens: 1

That's a very steep uphill climb. That's why they really needed the Texans game - if they had done that they would be #8 and knocking on the door with a 5-3 AFC record which compares favorably with the teams ahead of them.

This season in the end will be all about the coulda shoulda wouldas and that's why they'll fall short imo. Next year with a likely third place schedule and a better roster hopefully, I think they'll be back in the picture.

Winning three consecutive road games is an extremely difficult task for any team.

Winning three consecutive games against teams with winning records is equally difficult.

Having those two situations overlap is next to impossible.

In order to make the playoffs the Patriots need for either the Dolphins or Colts to stumble in the last five weeks. That's actually not inconceivable considering that both of those teams have one gimme, and four games that could easily go either way.

 

[captain stone]

10. Patriots – 5-6 overall / 2-1 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: at Chargers (3-8), at Rams (7-4), at Dolphins (7-4), vs Bills (8-3), vs Jets (0-11)

Pats play 3 winning teams in their last 5. The Jets suck but the Chargers are better than their record shows.
Teams ahead of them in the WC race:
Browns: 3 winning teams
Dolphins: 2
Colts: 2
Raiders: 2
Ravens: 1

That's a very steep uphill climb. That's why they really needed the Texans game - if they had done that they would be #8 and knocking on the door with a 5-3 AFC record which compares favorably with the teams ahead of them.

This season in the end will be all about the coulda shoulda wouldas and that's why they'll fall short imo. Next year with a likely third place schedule and a better roster hopefully, I think they'll be back in the picture.

BUF, DEN, KC, HOU...If we had gone just 2-2 vs those 4 AFC teams - a not-inconceivable concept, at all - we'd be right in the thick of this thing, despite our multiple & on-going personnel "issues"...

 

[sb1]

Winning three consecutive road games is an extremely difficult task for any team.

Winning three consecutive games against teams with winning records is equally difficult.

Having those two situations overlap is next to impossible.

In order to make the playoffs the Patriots need for either the Dolphins or Colts to stumble in the last five weeks. That's actually not inconceivable considering that both of those teams have one gimme, and four games that could easily go either way.

Agreed. Thought maybe the Browns could be in reach since they have 3 tough opponents but the other two are Jax and the Jets.

 

[sb1]

BUF, DEN, KC, HOU...If we had gone just 2-2 vs those 4 AFC teams - a not-inconceivable concept, at all - we'd be right in the thick of this thing, despite our multiple & on-going personnel "issues"...

Yep. The Broncos loss in particular was a really bad one. We're gonna be saying "if only" a lot about this season, more than we did about 08 and 02. Would have been interesting to think about the effect of Brady too if he stayed even if there's no way to know for sure.

 

[jmt57]

Agreed. Thought maybe the Browns could be in reach since they have 3 tough opponents but the other two are Jax and the Jets.

I think catching the Browns is less likely because even if they lose those three games they finish 10-6 - which would require the Pats to run the table, then go ahead of them on the tiebreaker.

In that scenario the Ravens stay ahead of the Pats, as Cleveland is Baltimore's only opponent with a winning record. The Ravens would just be replacing the Browns for a playoff spot, leaving the Patriots having to still count on a collapse by Miami and/or Indy.

 

[jmt57]

Yep. The Broncos loss in particular was a really bad one. We're gonna be saying "if only" a lot about this season, more than we did about 08 and 02. Would have been interesting to think about the effect of Brady too if he stayed even if there's no way to know for sure.

Based on Denver's record the loss to the Broncos looks bad, but considering the multiple injuries on the offensive line (and to a lesser extent the lack of practice time due to the Pats facilities being shut down), that loss should not have been unexpected.

I think you mentioned the loss to the Texans earlier, or elsewhere. To me that was the loss that was critical. There is such a huge difference between being one game back and two behind with so few games remaining to be played. Heading into that game I really thought the Patriots would be able to run the ball effectively against Houston's defense.

 

[sb1]

I think catching the Browns is less likely because even if they lose those three games they finish 10-6 - which would require the Pats to run the table, then go ahead of them on the tiebreaker.

In that scenario the Ravens stay ahead of the Pats, as Cleveland is Baltimore's only opponent with a winning record. The Ravens would just be replacing the Browns for a playoff spot, leaving the Patriots having to still count on a collapse by Miami and/or Indy.

That's true too. For the Browns, they cannot win more than 2 games against TEN, BAL, NYG, NYJ, PITT to give us a chance to catch them. If they don't then we catch them as we'll have a better AFC record than they will.

That is IF we run the table. Which I think is too much to ask anyway.

 

[sb1]

Based on Denver's record the loss to the Broncos looks bad, but considering the multiple injuries on the offensive line (and to a lesser extent the lack of practice time due to the Pats facilities being shut down), that loss should not have been unexpected.

I think you mentioned the loss to the Texans earlier, or elsewhere. To me that was the loss that was critical. There is such a huge difference between being one game back and two behind with so few games remaining to be played. Heading into that game I really thought the Patriots would be able to run the ball effectively against Houston's defense.

Me too.

Would have been nice to have breathing room on the road trip but it is what it is and we don't.

I do think that if they can somehow pull it off then I'll start to believe this team might go on a surprise run. I feel like maybe for the benefit of the Pats we should cheer for a Pitt undefeated season as that will mean losses for Baltimore and Cleveland to help us in the wild card race.

 

[sb1]

FWIW - 538 gives the Pats a 98% chance to make the playoffs if they do run the table. So the path is really wide if they can pull it off. That would be impressive.

 

[jmt57]

For anybody interested, here is a link to the above. Fun interactive gadget to fool around with, seeing the likely outcomes based on your own choices of who wins or loses upcoming games.

2020 NFL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[captain stone]

FWIW - 538 gives the Pats a 98% chance to make the playoffs if they do run the table. So the path is really wide if they can pull it off. That would be impressive.

Never say never, but I just don't see any way at all they beat the Rams.

 

[jmt57]

Never say never, but I just don't see any way at all they beat the Rams.

I've been fooling around with the what-if playoff machine at 538 this morning.

In the first go around I just filled in Pats outcomes, with a starting point to make the playoffs at 13%.
I gave the Pats a win at LAC, loss at Rams; that put them at 10%.
Another win at Miami moved them up to 21%, then a win vs Buffalo moves the needle to 44%.
They plateau there, with a win vs the Jets only bringing the Pats up to 51%.

I wanted to keep it simple, limiting it to two teams; in this case the Pats and the Dolphins.
Miami begins with a 48% expectation to make the playoffs.
I give the Fins a win vs Cincy, then losses to KC, NE, and a week 16 loss to the Raiders while the Pats beat Buffalo.
That dropped Miami down to 2%, but the Pats remained at only 46% - just two points higher than above.

Next was the same experiment, but with Indy rather than Miami.
Same scenario for the Pats (4-1 finish, with the one loss at the Rams).
Indy started off with a 55% probability; losses at Houston and at Raiders drops Indy to 10% after week 15.
After that an Indy win home vs Houston was followed by a loss to the Steelers, which dropped the Colts to 4%.
However - just as was the case above with Miami - it is not enough for the Pats, who at that point were only at 59%.
That put NE in the #8 spot, behind Pitt, KC, Tenn (98%), the Bills (90), Browns (82), Raiders (71) and Ravens (70).

It seems that when one playoff contender collapses, it helps another team as much or more than it does the Patriots. In other words, even if the Pats finish with four wins in five games, they are going to need help from not one, but two teams losing down the stretch. Hoping for the Colts and Dolphins to falter means the Raiders keep winning, staying ahead of the Pats. Baltimore has gone through the tough part of their schedule, with only one game left against a team with a winning record. Sure, the Pats win on a tiebreaker with either of those two - but that doesn't come into play if they remain ahead of the Pats.


It's difficult to find realistic scenarios where the Pats make the playoffs.