2019 draft retrospective and notes on 2020

[long distance]

What an amazing job, @reamer. great thread that makes a lot of sense (and pleasure )

Hopefully more discussion follows. Ill join tonight and i do hope other draft ironmen join here as well (@BaconGrundleCandy @manxman2601 @ctpatsfan77 etc etc etc) since post thoughts make sense in more ways than one (and in a way more than pre ones..)

 

[WaterfallJumper]

What an amazing job, @reamer. great thread that makes a lot of sense (and pleasure )

Hopefully more discussion follows. Ill join tonight and i do hope other draft ironmen join here as well (@BaconGrundleCandy @manxman2601 @ctpatsfan77 etc etc etc) since post thoughts make sense in more ways than one (and in a way more than pre ones..)

Thanks for the kind words! Everything is a little clearer in hindsight, isn't it?

Ideally, I'd like to add some stats and brief film sessions for each pick, just so we have a clear idea of the players, but my hope was really to stimulate discussion about team building and philosophy, particularly in terms of what we can learn for next year. It's fascinating to watch the Patriots work.

Oh, and another guy I'm watching for 2020: grad transfer Darrion Daniels, now at Nebraska. If nothing else, he can serenade the entire team. What a voice, big fella!

 

[long distance]

its not about hindsight (since we really still have so little of it) its the opportunity of better understanding the roster building process. to me following draft is not a guessing game . its one piece of the roster puzzle. so post draft thoughts are actually more important to me than pre-draft. pre-draft is important to get to know the class not to guess the picks. post-draft is important to understand the draft outcome and that includes players taken, trades, the flow of the draft days, roster outlook immediately after the draft, free agency market etc etc.

Pats fans are blessed with uncanny success . but they can be even more blessed with following the process - the ultimate team building experience that goes beyond football and sport.
I've been lucky to be a part of and leading some beautiful team building experiences (in very different, far less competitive environment) and despite being somewhat on the opposite spectrum of predominant football ideology, following Belichick's team building is an experience like few others..
___


didn't have the time to dig in the discussion here yet . but let me share this clip i made from Texas A&M @ Auburn game. You mentioned your reservations about Stidham. I like the pick. There were only two QBs i somewhat cared about in this class and liked them for NE: Grier and Stidham. It has nothing to do with the stats or mechanics. They were the only QBs (apart from Murray who i didn't follow much) that were not scared to win and not crazy to win. The only two guys that checked my ultimate QB box - “be water“.


These are the last two plays of the game (at least for Auburn O i believe). With some 5 minutes to go Auburn was 10 points down. Here its two minutes left and Auburn is 3 points down.
The two new Auburn Patriots turn on the victory coup..



Stidham suffered quite a bit throughout the game . like most of the season i guess.
But lets bear in mind that he lost 3 experienced OLs before the season (incl. Braden Smith) and both starting RBs so he was under some serious pressure a lot.
-.-

 

[Ivan]

Reserved for N'keal Harry

Caserio:

“He’s a strong guy. He’s hard to tackle. He actually has a little bit of ability to just make people miss. It’s one of the things that he’s been productive doing. You get the ball in his hands and he’s been able to make some yards. We’ll see if that translates over to us here when we get him.”

We have our own JuJu Smith-Schuster now. I've had a pet theory for a while that Belichick regrets not having a chance to draft him. Recall, for example, that Belichick complimented JuJu for the way he played the game. I've kept a lookout for similar receivers, and I came to the conclusion that consistent college production really mattered. It turns out that numerous analytics sites have already beaten me to the punch. From there I looked through the 2019 prospects with an eye toward production, size, physicality, YAC, contested catches, explosive plays, high football IQ, work ethic, and early dominance. Harry is outstanding in all categories.

As other people have mentioned on the board after the Harry pick, he earned top marks in market share / college dominator and did it all at an early age. All the analytic models liked his production.

N'Keal Harry - Player Profile Advanced Stats, Metrics & Analytics







Some might be surprised that Harry didn't run the fastest 3-cone or 40, but he showed phenomenal explosive traits at nearly 230 pounds. That's important for receivers over 6'2:




Harry ran a more diverse route tree than Metcalf or Brown, two receivers mocked in a similar range. He has inside/outside versatility, although my guess is that he'll run a lot of similar routes to Hogan, at least at first, in addition to the plays Patterson had last -- emphasize his open field running and ability to win contested catches. The ability to play X, Z, slot, or even H-back, really turns him into a fantastic chess piece who should see the field early and often.



For all of these reasons, I was all-in on Harry as our WR target leading up to the draft, although I thought he would be gone by 32 and so I had turned my attention to some other receivers. I had a sneaking suspicion Baltimore might grab him (they did go WR, but opted for a speed merchant instead of a mini-Gronk at WR). The need, player, and value all lined up and made sense. I'm excited to see how Harry develops over the next 5 years! He has a real shot at rookie of the year if he gets on the same page with Brady.

Why Patriots’ N’Keal Harry is *my* favorite wide receiver in this draft

Pro Football Focus on Twitter

Per PFF: When targeted in the intermediate level of the field (10-19 yards), no draft-class WR had a higher overall grade when targeted.

The thing that’s interesting to me is that I see Harry as an example of the Patriots looking to fill roles rather than taking a position. While most of us pencilled in TE to replace Gronk they looked at the college prospect who could fill those routes rather than filling the position, So while most are looking at filling out units by positional need, they are looking at how to fill all the different roles to meet the huge array of situations they will face. It’s obviously no longer base offense against base defense and vice versa, now it’s about matching up against all the sub packages in different situations. And as far as the Patriots go I think they provided role redundancy, quality, and a lot of talent to this roster.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Leki Fotu. 6'4 330. Will monitor him next season for sure. I'm slowly compiling a list of players for 2020; my hope is to get through 500+ by the next draft.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

 

[patsfaninpa]

its not about hindsight (since we really still have so little of it) its the opportunity of better understanding the roster building process. to me following draft is not a guessing game . its one piece of the roster puzzle. so post draft thoughts are actually more important to me than pre-draft. pre-draft is important to get to know the class not to guess the picks. post-draft is important to understand the draft outcome and that includes players taken, trades, the flow of the draft days, roster outlook immediately after the draft, free agency market etc etc.

Pats fans are blessed with uncanny success . but they can be even more blessed with following the process - the ultimate team building experience that goes beyond football and sport.
I've been lucky to be a part of and leading some beautiful team building experiences (in very different, far less competitive environment) and despite being somewhat on the opposite spectrum of predominant football ideology, following Belichick's team building is an experience like few others..
___


didn't have the time to dig in the discussion here yet . but let me share this clip i made from Texas A&M @ Auburn game. You mentioned your reservations about Stidham. I like the pick. There were only two QBs i somewhat cared about in this class and liked them for NE: Grier and Stidham. It has nothing to do with the stats or mechanics. They were the only QBs (apart from Murray who i didn't follow much) that were not scared to win and not crazy to win. The only two guys that checked my ultimate QB box - “be water“.


These are the last two plays of the game (at least for Auburn O i believe). With some 5 minutes to go Auburn was 10 points down. Here its two minutes left and Auburn is 3 points down.
The two new Auburn Patriots turn on the victory coup..



Stidham suffered quite a bit throughout the game . like most of the season i guess.
But lets bear in mind that he lost 3 experienced OLs before the season (incl. Braden Smith) and both starting RBs so he was under some serious pressure a lot.
-.-

They had an illegal formation on that TD pass. Only 6 men on LOS. Even more
obvious than Philly Special.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Harry is the type of prospect everyone can get behind. Even if you're not a RB/WR guy Rd1.
Watching & studying him last year 2 things became obvious. Don't want to say he wasn't being utilized right but I think he's a more efficient player all around at the next level. I didn't like some of gimmicky stuff they ran.
The other thing was QB play. Not the brightest there & at times not on the same page. Neither helped him out him much imo. I feel like Harry was praying for NE to take him when he was looking at possible landing spots.
On the field hes one of these guys you have to play his strengths to max your return w some 50/50's downfield. Brady's trust will be key but Harry is a so good there I think Brady will have np letting it rip.

His tracking ability, body control, hand strength & maybe most importantly, his ability to be physical w/out doing too much to get caught. The ability to hold, push w/out extending, using your body to make contact etc.. is top tier imo. I said as much last year in my notes in my thread. He wont win every time but you feel confident w this guy. He has that alpha mentality that gives you confidence.

I really liked what he brings in the slot. Esp w an Edleman opposite slot on occasion. Harry's big body & target in the mof. Ability to work the sidelines on fades/out & up/back shoulder. Edleman running whip, slant etc. Theres a ton you can do w 11, White & hopefully (Looking at YOU SONY) others opposite Harry. Using their quicks while a defense has to accept & account for his physicality.

I graded Butler at 8.40, Deebo 8.37 & Harry at 8.35 All barely missing the 1st. So the value is there when you consider how bad the need was. The lined up perfectly.

Two things he can clean up.
Like Gordon, Harry will round out some routes. A lot of time it won't matter but it's something you notice. The 2nd is something I've been harping on since last year. Footwork at the los/release.

This is from a week ago by Stephen White (retired pro)
"Pretty much the only quibble I have with Harry’s route running is the fact that at times his releases off the line of scrimmage took way too long. Chopping your feet for five seconds is cute in 7-on-7 when there is no pass rush, but in a real game the ball needs to come out faster than that. That means receivers need to get their butts up the field and into their route faster than that, too".

Nice to see someone like him back up what I saw but again its noticeable. Both issues are fixable & I'm sure the staff will do a great job of breaking him down/building him up in other areas as well.

We got a versatile playmaker. Tough prospect that isn't afraid of the big stage & wants to make a big play. He's young & seemingly has the head on his shoulders you want when you invest this type of pick. He passes some metrics, the eye test, has + production. Not a lot that doesnt support him being successful. And now he goes from Wilkins to Brady. ASU to NE. Herm to Bill.


Ideally we have one of Gronk or Gordon opposite Harry sometime next fall. That would be murder on opposing defenses.
Even w/out them it looks like this team is looking to get more physical. We're ready to rumble on the ground w/ an improved RB corp, added depth on the OL & some size in Harry, Meyers & Thomas. Whether the last 2 stay is unknown although I think Meyers makes the 53 rn. Whats clear, at least to me, is that we're looking to go big & give Tom some needed help. Harry is a huge part of that & looks to be a great fit here.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Winovich was a classic Bill pick. This is why Bill is the best. Forget about evaluating a player, which hes great at. What makes you good at drafting, isn't just evaluating talent. Its navigating the draft. Each one is very different. It's a marathon that turns into a sprint & if you're not careful it can blow right by you. Bill is outstanding at understanding that like each season, each draft is different. Some are deep at some positions. Deep in general. Some are not. Bill's so good at taking what's he's giving, setting himself up for next year & letting the draft play out while making sure he fills his cupboard w his guys.

Winovich is a classic PTP. Great value by my scale as I had a 2nd (8.14, 8th Rush/Edge) on Chase.

@reamer brought up Clayborn's style I believe & I really like that comp in certain areas. Both play w a controlled type of chaos w some nice technique. This is where I think Chase might have an edge on Clayborn coming out. Chase has + hands to attack & disengage. He does a great job of consistently using his hands to rip, stab & control his opponents but also push/pull when stacking & shedding.

He also displayed the ability to rush inside, convert speed to power & his agility scores showed up at times on the field.

He's not too far off from that 6'3-260+ guy we like to use along the front 7. So like @reamer said some time in a s&c program could go a long way.

Still he comes in as + run defender. Understands how to use his length even though he doesn't have long arms. Does a vg at positioning himself so he's able to get underneath & extend. Classic chase/pursuit style & game.

PTP all the way. Versatile. Smart. Tough. Locker room guy. Great value. Can't wait to see him running around & how Bill uses him.

 

[BobDigital]

This thread is some premium content. It's so sad that you can't get this in depth patriot news from professionals. They're paid to do it and looking at the work that has been put into this thread it's makes it clear how underwhelming they are.

Thanks for all this great information @reamer The more i learn about this draft the more I like and and the more I kick myself for some of my grades on players.

 

[Flash]

So what I learned from this thread...N'Keal Harry is our DeAndre Hopkins?

Great stuff all around, as a person who is not well-versed in football this entire thread has been super informative.

 

[borisman]

Great thread!

 

[WaterfallJumper]

As part of my prep for 2020, I've gone back to historical prototypes at different positions to train my eye to recognize technique done correctly. For LB/EDGE, it doesn't get much better than the mad man himself, Lawrence Taylor. It may sound unfair to compare players to him, but it's helpful to me to set a baseline for what a true impact player really looks like.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Harry could step right in and run Patterson's route in this concept. It's useful to remember how the Patriots attack the field. We often focus on individual traits in scouting, but it's helpful to put everything in context. This route concept doesn't rely quite as much on precise route running or separation skills as it does on the entire unit working together to stress the defensive zones with their spacing and combinations. Harry could be dynamite on this type of target.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

As part of my prep for 2020, I've gone back to historical prototypes at different positions to train my eye to recognize technique done correctly. For LB/EDGE, it doesn't get much better than the mad man himself, Lawrence Taylor. It may sound unfair to compare players to him, but it's helpful to me to set a baseline for what a true impact player really looks like.

Wow........ although he does everything right, the thing that sticks out to me the most is just how quick he was. He makes Von Miller look like Cecil the Turtle. JJ Watt’s strength and Julian Edelman’s quickness combined. No wonder Belichick always drools when talking about him. I was too young to appreciate him while he was playing.

 

[miloofcroton]

I love #1 now. It took me a minute because, to be honest, I completely missed on Harry. When you actually watch his tape, he runs incredible routes. He's going to get open in the NFL, and he's going to catch everything, thanks to his size, his great hands, and ability to high point balls. This is a star possession WR. NFL's website compares him to Allen Robinson, and I think that's pretty solid. He might be a bit slower, but no matter. I do not think Josh Gordon is a good comp for Harry. This isn't a deep threat guy.

#2 is just okay for me. Williams would seem to be more of a zone guy, and I thought we wanted flexibility to stay in man more. I love the intangibles and the size, so there's definitely something to work with. I just think this will be a player we'll forget about.

I loved #3, #4, and #5. None may be stars, but they are proven talents with the right measurables. Winovich can be a nickel pass rusher at minimum, Harris can be the #2 RB, and Cajuste should challenge for the LT role in his rookie year (or at minimum, be a premium talent at 3rd OT on the roster, an often key player by the time the playoffs come). They're just all very solid guys that will probably rise the ranks and play with the team for a while.

Quick note about versatility. Will they consider Williams at S? Then, some of the calculus changes. I might like that pick more if he's a SS. I would want to see more of his tackling though. Winovich is one of the best athletes at DE this year, and he's a definitely OLB candidate, so he offers some 3-4/4-3 flexibility. He probably offers more value at OLB, to be honest, because I think he'd overpower opponents if given a running start, but I don't recall seeing a lot of complex pass rush moves from him, meaning the DE position may be more challenging (not to mention, he has a bit of a slight frame to play there every down).

#6 is just okay. I don't see the value.

#7 is amazing. Many people have said it, and I agree: he had the best arm and the best throwing mechanics in the draft. I finally lost interest in him when I saw him constantly make boneheaded plays even up to the Senior Bowl. If the Patriots think they can make him work, then he's the ultimate diamond in the rough. Elite potential. Hindsight is 20/20, but there isn't another QB that would get me as excited as I am about Stidham if given that the Patriots showed their faith in them.

#8 was a great sleeper, looking at some tape. He has real athletic ability and can play DT or DE.

Everything else is meh.

This is all before the preseason injuries start to hit, but I could realistically see all of these guys making the team, so that's a huge win as far as I'm concerned.

 

[captain stone]

SloJuan's best chance of having any success at all in this league is by converting full-time to Safety, because he is a Penalty Machine waiting to happen as a CB...and at the cost of not only his own draft slot, but also that of #101 overall, which could've been used on Actually Superior DBs Julien Love, Chauncey Gardner Johnson & Armani Hooker.

I can see it now: our starting Safeties for the 2020 season will be ObiWan & SloJuan.

Still surprised (though not entirely shocked - how can I be, this is Draft Day Billy we're discussing after all) and thoroughly disappointed that no other WR and Not One Feckin TE were taken during the entire weekend.

Throwing away #s 239 & 246 just to move up a couple of spots each for Cowart & a Punter cost us the chance to evaluate two more prospects who could've helped our depth. Complete feckin waste...
I mean, who the FECK is drooling at the feckin mouth to draft either of these two guys at either 160 or 164 - especially the underachiever Cowart - when Actually Superior DTs Armon Watts, Dontavious Russell & Gerald Willis are still available?

And even with the only 7th-rounder he had remaining, Bill still couldn't help himself; he...just...had...to..take...another DB.

Yawndy Cachoo: Damaged Goods Personified. The next Tony Garcia.

Sorry not sorry, but with arms < 31-1/2" each, Frodo is UNQUALIFIED to enter my building.

And I place the chances of Jared Stidham becoming the next Jimmy G as Remote...at best. His decision-making skills are, let's just say, not as developed and leave it at that.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

#2 is just okay for me. Williams would seem to be more of a zone guy, and I thought we wanted flexibility to stay in man more.

Williams is a prototypical press-man corner. Not sure why you think he's more of a zone guy. Did you follow the link to look at my discussion of JoeJuan Williams in the main forum? I include a lot of film breakdowns and metric discussions. Williams was my favorite CB in the draft by a long shot. I think we'll see his value against big receivers and TEs. He's gifted in man coverage.

 

[miloofcroton]

Williams is a prototypical press-man corner. Not sure why you think he's more of a zone guy. Did you follow the link to look at my discussion of JoeJuan Williams in the main forum? I include a lot of film breakdowns and metric discussions. Williams was my favorite CB in the draft by a long shot. I think we'll see his value against big receivers and TEs. He's gifted in man coverage.

There's nothing prototypical about a 6'4" corner. It's not like there's any shortage of 6'4" athletes (look at how many mediocre basketball players there are). There's a shortage of 6'4" corners because of the drawbacks that come with that size.

I'm not saying he can't do it or won't do it. I'm just saying that he as certain limitations.

You definitely want him to press and play physically, but you want to limit his area of responsibility. You want to play match zone, so he's aggressively playing man on whoever is in his zone. This is much, much different from the style of man defense that uses Cover 0 and pure man-to-man matchups.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Looking ahead to the 2020 draft.

On offense - the o line looks set even if Thuney leaves. The running backs look set. Tight end, wide receiver and qb need attention.

On defense - the cornerback position looks set. Everywhere else needs attention.