Realistic Prediction for 2007 - 13-3

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

2007 New England Patriots Schedule
---------------------------------------------
at New York Jets, W 38-14 (1-0)
San Diego Chargers, W 38-14 (2-0)
Buffalo Bills, 38-7 (3-0)
at Cincinnati Bengals, 34-13 (4-0)

Sunday, Oct. 7 Cleveland Browns 1:00p (5-0)
We will beat the Browns, but they may give us a better game than people think. Crennel knows Belichick and vice versa. The Brownies can score some points.

Sunday, Oct. 14 at Dallas Cowboys 4:15p (5-1)
I think we might beat Dallas, on the road, but let's be realistic. If we're predicting, this one COULD be a loss.

Sunday, Oct. 21 at Miami Dolphins 1:00p (6-1)
I think the Pats will smash the Fins this year, but history tells me that we traditionally lay an egg in Miami, especially when we play in the first half of the season, when the humidity takes a lot out of the northern boys. A toss up game.

Sunday, Oct. 28 Washington Redskins 4:15p (7-1)
A win IMO.

Sunday, Nov. 4 at Indianapolis Colts 4:15p (7-2)
It would be sweet to beat the Colts, but this is a game we could more easily lose than any other.

Sunday, Nov. 11 Bye Week
We won't lose THIS week, that's for sure!

Sunday, Nov. 18 at Buffalo Bills 1:00p (8-2)
Win. The Bills are just putrid!

Sunday, Nov. 25 Philadelphia Eagles 8:15p (9-2)
The Eagles just don't have much that impresses me. They ain't putting 51 points up on the Pats, that's fo' sho'!

Monday, Dec. 3 at Baltimore Ravens 8:30p (10-2)
Win. And Adalius Thomas will make them so sad they let him walk.

Sunday, Dec. 9 Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00p (10-3)
I pray we win this one because I am flying up to New England and going to this game. But, the Steelers are good. Hey, whatever happened to all those Steelers fans and their "Who's better? Brady or Rothlisberger?" hulla-balloo. That one died as quick as the Sox fans and the "Nomar vs. Jeter" comparisons!

Sunday, Dec. 16 New York Jets 1:00p (11-3)
NFL Record for point differential. Pats 77, Jets 3

Sunday, Dec. 23 Miami Dolphins 1:00p (12-3)
Dolphins in New England in the winter. Think Tedy Bruschi throwing snow at the end zone crowd.

Saturday, Dec. 29 at New York Giants 8:30p (13-3)
The only way we lose this game is if we are so far ahead in the playoff race that Belichick starts Matt Gutierrez@ QB AND LeKevin Smith @ NT! Even then, I think we'll beat the miserable Jints!

 

[old 55]

You just basically said that the Pats are the worst of the best teams right now.

I can see us dropping a game along the way due to a poorly timed injury, or emotional letdown, but you've got us losing to the elite teams and beating the also-rans.

I think the Pats will be up to the challenge against the Cowboys. They still play in the NFC afterall.

I don't see us losing to the Steelers after they got exposed in Arizona. I expect them to play better against us, but I see us winning that game.

The Colts - right now we're playing better than they are. We could lose the game, but once again I see us up for that game and looking to prove a point. This team will be motivated beyond belief for that game.
Let's say we give the Colts an even up or slightly better offensive rating than us. But, could you actually say our D isn't waaaay better than theirs?

The main hurdles right now are the Cowboys and Colts and an emotional letdown. I think we can handle all of these with this team and this coaching staff.

 

[patsox23]

I get that Armen is trying to find the games that we COULD lose, and being extremely conservative, but essentially he's saying we'll lose EVERY GAME that we could possible lose. I don't buy that, no matter what the caveats. The Pats may lose to either Indy or the Cowboys (I doubt both, but it's possible) and otherwise the only thing that can stop them is an injury to Brady (maybe Wilfork or Adalius) or injuries to one specific position.

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

I get that Armen is trying to find the games that we COULD lose, and being extremely conservative, but essentially he's saying we'll lose EVERY GAME that we could possible lose. I don't buy that, no matter what the caveats. The Pats may lose to either Indy or the Cowboys (I doubt both, but it's possible) and otherwise the only thing that can stop them is an injury to Brady (maybe Wilfork or Adalius) or injuries to one specific position.

Right. You got it. I mean, when I look at the schedule and how we're playing RIGHT NOW, I can easily see how someone would be talking 16-0.

But, I am just trying to keep things in perspective.

The best thing about this team with BB at the helm is you KNOW all they are thinking about is next week!

It's for fans and media to speculate and debate.

 

[old 55]

Let's hope we're removing those Fins from the record books this year!

It has been amazing to watch these last few games. We've been so accustomed to seeing closer games, but this is a whole new chapter.

It is a joy to see Brady have the tools he has always been missing. I think we all knew that he could surpass Peyton's production if he had 1st rate receivers to throw to.

Go Pats!!

 

[Bertil]

Lose at Dallas? Maybe (but I doubt it). Lose at Indy? Only if the Pats play it vanilla, in order to save their trump cards for the postseason. Lose to the Steelers at Home?! No Friggin' WAY!

 

[TruthSeeker]

I get that Armen is trying to find the games that we COULD lose, and being extremely conservative, but essentially he's saying we'll lose EVERY GAME that we could possible lose.

Exactly. Which makes the title of "Realistic Prediction" unrealistic.

 

[Richter]

I have precisely zero confidence in the AFC north this season. I don't believe either Pittsburgh or Baltimore are serious threats. And I don't think Dallas has the defense to hang with us. Outside of the bizarre Dolphins upset or something like that, it's the Colts game that's going to be the defining moment of the regular season. The two best teams, going at it, no holds barred, likely with serious ramifications for home field advantage. Pats win that game, get to the bye at 9-0, and I'm on board the 16-0 bandwagon. Gotta wait for them to get to that point, though. But no, I don't see most of those games you listed as even somewhat possible losses, just not as big upsets as the other teams we're penciling in for wins on that list.

 

[DynastyDriven]

I did say 14-2 before the season thinking they would be 3-1 after 4 games but now I have to upgrade to 15-1 barring injury *knock on wood*

 

[mgcolby]

I had them going 14-2 before the season. I can only see that increasing to 15-1. Baltimore sucks and their defense can't seem to play 4 quarters and Dallas is overrated (D is not good). Pittsburgh regardless of how they played last week matches up best against us, IMO. They are the most balanced team on our schedule.

And then there is Indy, I'm not sure what to think of them right now and given the teams familiarity with each other, it should be a good game. Then you have the final game against the Giants who might be playing for a playoff spot and we will have sealed up the division and very likely HFA. So it might be the 2nd stringers for 3 1/2 quarters against their starters.

 

[BradyManny]

I get that Armen is trying to find the games that we COULD lose, and being extremely conservative, but essentially he's saying we'll lose EVERY GAME that we could possible lose.

Let's put it this way: I think we're better than any other team in the NFL, but we're going to lose a game this season. Probably more than one.

Somewhere between 13-3 and 15-1 sounds accurate to me, who do we lose to? I have no idea. As I said, we're better than anyone else on paper, but as they say, "any given Sunday".

 

[Kdo5]

Losing to Colts, Steelers and Cowboys? I think we beat the Boys and the Steelers.

 

[Isaac]

Armen, your error was that you didn't think about it in terms of probability. Here are my blind homerism estimates of the probability of winning each game (all of which are greater than .5 since the Patriots are by far the best team). It still nets them only a 21% chance of going undefeated.
Team Probability of winning
Browns 0.9
Cowboys 0.8
Phins 0.95
Skins 0.9
Dolts 0.7
Bills 0.95
Eagles 0.9
Ravens 0.85
Steelers 0.8
Jets 0.99
Dolphins 0.95
Giants 0.9

Undefeated season = 0.21 (21%)

By the way, you'd have to think that they have a 95% chance of winning every game they play in order to have a greater than 50% at having an undefeated season. Maybe they do.

 

[fumbrunner]

Isn't it humourous that at the beginning of the year, it looked like the Pats had one of the toughest schedules in the league. Looking at it now, they have three tough games. Funny how things change like that.


jets went from playoff team to a team that will lucky to sniff .500
chargers, well who could have predicted such a slow start
bills were supposed to be improved......not so much
the NFC east? Besides Dallas, do any of those teams scare you?

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

Armen, your error was that you didn't think about it in terms of probability. Here are my blind homerism estimates of the probability of winning each game (all of which are greater than .5 since the Patriots are by far the best team). It still nets them only a 21% chance of going undefeated.
Team Probability of winning
Browns 0.9
Cowboys 0.8
Phins 0.95
Skins 0.9
Dolts 0.7
Bills 0.95
Eagles 0.9
Ravens 0.85
Steelers 0.8
Jets 0.99
Dolphins 0.95
Giants 0.9

Undefeated season = 0.21 (21%)

By the way, you'd have to think that they have a 95% chance of winning every game they play in order to have a greater than 50% at having an undefeated season. Maybe they do.

I like that. It is more scientific, but in spirit, it is saying basically what I was saying.

Logic has to tell you that this team is not going run the table. The odds against it are huge.

So, pick a record.

From my gut, I chose 13-3. I think that would be a great season and probably get them home field.

Now, if you picked 13-3, which three teams would be the most probable losses - Indy, Dallas & Pittsburgh.

Not emotional, just trying to be realistic in looking at it.

I hope they go 16-0. I live in Miami and I wouldn't have to listen to these idiots talking about 1972 all the time! For me, it would be like my personal end of "1918". And the PATS fan in me thinks it is more than possible that they could go 16-0, but the FOOTBALL fan reminds me just how hard that is to do.

ADPF

 

[Richter]

I like that. It is more scientific, but in spirit, it is saying basically what I was saying.

Logic has to tell you that this team is not going run the table. The odds against it are huge.

So, pick a record.

From my gut, I chose 13-3. I think that would be a great season and probably get them home field.

Now, if you picked 13-3, which three teams would be the most probable losses - Indy, Dallas & Pittsburgh.

Not emotional, just trying to be realistic in looking at it.

I hope they go 16-0. I live in Miami and I wouldn't have to listen to these idiots talking about 1972 all the time! For me, it would be like my personal end of "1918". And the PATS fan in me thinks it is more than possible that they could go 16-0, but the FOOTBALL fan reminds me just how hard that is to do.

ADPF

Why would you pick 13-3? The back to back championship teams both went 14-2, and this team is better than either of those teams, and is facing a similar if not easier schedule than either of those teams. If you agree that this is the best Patriots team ever in terms of talent and potential, and you refuse to consider the possibility of an undefeated season, 15-1 would seem to make the most sense.

 

[BB_dynasty]

I think we will go 15-1, we just can never beat the dolphins in miami.

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

Why would you pick 13-3? The back to back championship teams both went 14-2, and this team is better than either of those teams, and is facing a similar if not easier schedule than either of those teams. If you agree that this is the best Patriots team ever in terms of talent and potential, and you refuse to consider the possibility of an undefeated season, 15-1 would seem to make the most sense.

It's not at all that I "refuse to consider the possibility of an undefeated season". It's just that I know there is only one team that has ever accomplished that feat for a reason.

Why did I pick 13-3? Because I looked at the schedule and said, "Okay, who are the teams that could beat us? Dallas, Indy & the Steelers."

Even though I know, if we do lose, it is probably going to come from some unexpected team, like Buffalo or some s h i t.

But, just from a purely analyatical perspective, those are the three teams with the best shot on paper to beat us, so I took the 16 game minus the three possible losses and that's how I came up with 13-3!

If you read the skinny, you would see that I think we'll probably beat Dallas and Pittsburgh. Not so sure about Indy. That would revise my prediction 15-1.

There. Happy?

 

[FrontSeven]

But, I am just trying to keep things in perspective.

What's in perspective about the best team in the league losing 3 games? You lost me there. This team is balanced. It has all three phases working. It's well coached. It's experienced at handling big games and let down games and rebound games. How the *hell* do they lose three? How do you lose three games with Brady and Moss breaking all the TD records? Do they suddenly just give up and walk around with their heads in the clouds?

I wouldn't work so hard to build a perspective like that. If they lose it's because of being star crossed on that day, with that other team, and if it happens once or twice it will be a miracle for the other teams.

 

[alamo]

If we feel we are one of the top two teams in the league then 13-3 is too low.

But I think any such prediction until we have played Dallas is premature. Yes, we can only play our schedule, blah blah blah, yes, we have dominated the opposition so far, blah blah blah.... but the undeniable reality is that we have not yet been tested against a top-notch team. We simply don't know yet how we will respond. Dallas and then Indy will tell us a lot.