Antonio Brown Mega-Thread

[maineman209]

It may be a lot easier knowing that his last 6 seasons have produced yearly averages of 115 catches for about 1500 yards and 11 touchdowns.
One can make a pretty strong case that he’s the best WR in the game.

Allen, HT, and Gronk would add about 23m in cap space alone, and while it’s not realistic to expect all three to be gone, we could certainly see 2/3.

Adding the roughly $23m gained from shedding those three to Miguel's current estimate of $18m for the Pats 2019 starting cap space yields roughly $41m. That seems like a lot, but consider that also leaves the Pats with only Hollister, Izzo (IR) and Anderson (PS) under contract at TE. Creating that "roster hole" by shedding Allen outright, instead of extending him at a lower AAV, may be something the Pats would prefer to avoid, if possible.

The "roster hole" factor is also a consideration wrt which in-house free agents to re-sign:

- Trey Flowers
- Trent Brown
- M. Brown and Shelton
- Hogan, Dorsett and Patterson.
- JMAC and Jon Jones.
- Gost and Ryan Allen.

Aside from Flowers and T. Brown, none of these other cap hit are likely to be large, individually. However, all these "little" cap hits added together might total $20M (my own, relatively low-ball estimates, and NOT including Hogan or Shelton).

And then, because the Pats have so many top-100 draft picks this year, rookie signings may cost another $5m-$6m (and that's just those who would be above the top-51 cutoff line).

Then there's the $5m-$6m regular season fund for LTBEs and in-season injury replacements.

So, suddenly, there's $30m-$32m of that $41m used up - before re-signing Flowers or Trent Brown, and before signing any other external free agents.

IOW, absorbing AB's $12.6m cap hit definitely means shorting the roster somewhere else.

 

[maineman209]

MM—speaking of cap space, any idea what happens to the 5m from Brady’s deal that was considered LTBE? I’m assuming that is added to the projected 2019 space. Is that correct, since he did not reach any of those incentives?

Update:

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

My guess is that regardless of the situation currently, the Steelers were probably pretty happy to get a four time All Pro with a sixth round pick.

Yea if we could go back in time , i dont know what teans wouldnt gladly spend a 1st on him for 8 or 9 years of that kind of production because he ends up missing a game due to an altercation and was a distraction a great part of the final year. Guy is a dbag but from a football perspective he hasn’t created a whole lot of drama till early on this season.

 

[Uptown]

 

[SBLIII]

AB is a great player but he is on a decline already and his caphit is too big for us at this point. Not to mention what it would take to acquire him via trade.

Better draft a WR relatively early and fill other needs as well.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

My guess is that regardless of the situation currently, the Steelers were probably pretty happy to get a four time All Pro with a sixth round pick.

Greg is a clown. Legit scout but just terrible at what he does.

He'll never live this down lol

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don’t see how the Stealers eat the dead money.

They eat it anyway regardless if hes with the team or not.

The real question is do they want to pay him the the ~$36m remaining and realize the ~$16m in cap savings without him.

 

[Nunchucks]

Yeah, he has just been the best receiver in football, arguably.

 

[Nunchucks]

I'd take him on the Patriots.

 

[Uptown]

 

[tasmlab]

Steelers are good at drafting players... when they show up.

 

[Soliel]

He said Ryan Allen is an Uncle Tom?

 

[203Pat]

AB is a great player but he is on a decline already and his caphit is too big for us at this point. Not to mention what it would take to acquire him via trade.

Better draft a WR relatively early and fill other needs as well.

How is he declining?

 

[XLIX]

I think Pittsburgh trading Antonio Brown is extremely likely.
I think Pittsburgh trading Antonio Brown to the Patriots is so laughable of an idea that it doesn't even remotely merit discussion.

 

[Miguel]

You - everyone here, actually - should follow @Miguel on Twitter (twitter.com/patscap). There is no more accurate source for info on the Pats real cap numbers, contracts and cap constraints.

He's using a 2019 salary cap projection of $189m (splitting the difference), and he estimates that the Pats starting 2019 cap space will be about $18.1m. That's with only 43 players currently under contract.

The $18.1M is for 55 players. Am presuming Patriots will sign all of their practice squad to future contracts and tender their prospective ERFAs.

 

[Miguel]

IIRC, @Miguel may have already accounted for that in his $18.1m cap space estimate. Or, maybe not.

I have already.

 

[maineman209]

I have already.

I noted that in one of your tweets and updated here in a second comment later. Thanks!

 

[maineman209]

The $18.1M is for 55 players. Am presuming Patriots will sign all of their practice squad to future contracts and tender their prospective ERFAs.

Futures and ERFAs are $495k (each) in 2019?

 

[bormio]

So Brown called Ryan Clark an “Uncle Tom”. See the 12 days of Christmas aren’t over yet. We still have presents to open.

 

[mgteich]

I like AB and all but his contract is way too much $$

AB is well worth his $40M over 3 years as contracted.