Thoughts on Sony Michel

[primetime]

Yeah, it's not really an apples to apples comparison though because Chubb spent most of the season as a change of pace back for Carlos Hyde, coming in only for occasional carries when the defense was gassed despite being a clearly better runner. Not to say he's not the real deal, he's performed damn well since Hyde got traded, but that 3 carry, 100 yard game did wonders for his YPC

They've actually had very similar seasons statistically. Sony has 127 carries to Chubb's 121. Ten of Sony's carries have come inside the opponent's 5 yard line, while Chubb has only been handed the ball four times inside the opponent's five yard line.

If you remove those goal line runs, Chubb has 39 runs of 5 yards or more (exactly one-third of his total runs) while Sony has 43 runs of 5 yards or more (36.8 percent). It's a fairly negligible difference.

Sony has 23 carries of no gain or a loss (18.1 percent), compared to 30 for Chubb (24.8 percent). Of note is that five of those carries came at the opponent's one yard line. For Chubb, only one of those carries came at the goal line. 14 carries for Chubb have been a loss, with 7 of them being losses of 2 yards or more, including two losses of 4 yards. For Sony, only nine have been a loss (with one of these at the goal line) and only four have been losses of 2 yards or more.

In other words, they're about equally consistent in terms of churning out chunk gains, with a slight but relatively unimportant edge to Sony. Chubb's been a bigger home run hitter, with touchdown runs of 92, 63, and 41 yards, while Sony's three longest runs are 34, 33, and 31. However, Chubb's also been more prone to negative runs and no gains.

Per Football Outsiders, New England's line has played better than Cleveland's, so overall they're really playing equal football. Chubb may be playing ever so slightly better because those huge runs can be really important, but they also tend to be a bit random and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sony has one or two in the next few games.

 

[PatsFan2]

Big time WR type catch by Nick Chubb last Sunday on 3rd Down and they said he can't catch??

 

[Deus Irae]

So despite his mostly great season so far some people are still saying "should have kept Blount" ? Seriously ?

Blount's the wrong RB to be wishing was still around. Lewis is the one they should have kept, independent of whether or not they chose to draft a RB.

 

[Deus Irae]

Also, before people flip from underrating Michel to overrating him, take the patience pill. Just stack him up against the other RB1s in the league. Hell, just use the AFC. Then, hope that improved health and game experience comes his way and helps him get better.

 

[SVN]

I remember this thread around week 3
Who Is Sony Michel?

 

[maineman209]

I think his relative lack of use as a receiver has more to do with developing trust between Brady, the coaches and him that he can pickup blitzes and generally pass protect. He still sometimes looks kinda awkward doing it, which makes sense. He only has one offseason of NFL level strength and conditioning in him. A year ago he was going against other kids his age now against elite athletes.

Last season, Burkhead saw about 4 tgts for every 7 carries. I don't know that Sony will ever be targeted quite that much, but I'm not sure how much that matters. For another comparison, we know how well DLew can perform as a receiver, but he was only targeted once every 5 carries last season.

 

[TheRainMaker]

My point is Sony's rookie year surpasses Ridley's rookie campaign.

Got it. I misunderstood your initial response.

 

[Ring 6]

Blount's the wrong RB to be wishing was still around. Lewis is the one they should have kept, independent of whether or not they chose to draft a RB.

Lewis isn’t doing anything on the field that would make them regret losing him.
Ultimately he was forced into a role he isn’t durable enough for last year.
The decision to move on wasn’t about his playbin 2017 or what he would do in 2018 though it was about durability.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I speak truths. There has never been a QB the likes of Tom Brady. Curtis Martin is exactly the runner I described in my previous post. Look at his career

Curtis Martin Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Parcells screwed us big time by stealing Martin away. We never had a real replacement until Corey Dillon was signed in 2003.

Dillon was traded to the Pats for a 2nd round pick, but I get your point.

Curtis Martin going to the Jets was extremely painful to watch. Not only because it was the Jets, but because he was one of the best RB's in the NFL and now the Pats had to use a high pick to replace him when it could've gone to address another need.

However, had he stayed, I believe he would've made the Pats competitive enough for Carroll to stay and maybe BB takes an job somewhere else. Who knows, maybe not as the D was aging and the O-line was deteriorating. I think I saw Martin say he thinks about what would've happened had he stayed a Patriot.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Got it. I misunderstood your initial response.

No worries. I wasn't clear.

Ridley was outstanding in 2012. If Sony can do that next year I'd be ecstatic.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Goddamn I feel old.

If you didn't see Martin play in real time and relative to the other players on the field a youtube video just isn't gonna capture that.



I'm not someone who roots against our players. I also don't overly romanticize the past. A lot of the players from the 80s and 90s who were stars wouldn't make a starting lineup these days.

Relative to the players of his day Martin was special in a way that more than Sony's stats can capture. I'd love if Michel became the greatest RB of all time, but I gotta call them like I see them.

I didn't get into watching football (or at least I didn't understand it the way I do now, as a fan), until just after Martin left, and I never followed him with the Jets. He looks like a very good player, and obviously he made it to the Hall -- I'm not expecting Michel to match that, but I do like what he brings to the team currently.

As @Deus Irae has mentioned, people really want to under- or over-rate Michel right now. He's not bad for a rookie, and he can probably get a lot better with experience, but he's also not likely to end up in the HoF or to be considered the best RB in the league (or even the best rookie RB in the league). Nonetheless, he gives our run game a dimension that's lacking without him, so I appreciate his role considerably.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

So despite his mostly great season so far some people are still saying "should have kept Blount" ? Seriously ?

Id have liked to see Blount stay but Hill looked to be a legitimate replacement and unfortunately went down with injury

But I love the Michel pick, and he’s clearly not injury prone because he had 2 VERY awkward tackles where he got caught up under someone that would have blown most peoples ACL/MCL out.. so obviously his knees aren’t made of tissue paper like some suggest

And in that Jets game when he was tackled face down and then a 300+ Lb defender pulls him in what is essentially a chokehold around his neck and bends him completely backwards as hard as he possibly could... wowzers, that looked like it could have been a real bad injury And he came back into the game

So that is direct evidence to counter any “injury prone” arguments people overuse so much

 

[RobertWeathers]

Goddamn I feel old.

Tell me about it. If you look up my screenname I was in 5th grade when he was a rookie.

 

[primetime]

Goddamn I feel old.

If you didn't see Martin play in real time and relative to the other players on the field a youtube video just isn't gonna capture that.



I'm not someone who roots against our players. I also don't overly romanticize the past. A lot of the players from the 80s and 90s who were stars wouldn't make a starting lineup these days.

Relative to the players of his day Martin was special in a way that more than Sony's stats can capture. I'd love if Michel became the greatest RB of all time, but I gotta call them like I see them.

I was 8, I think, when Martin entered the league. I was there for the first touchdown run against the Browns. I think him going to the Jets was the first time I ever felt like I got punched in the gut by football. It felt even worse than losing the Super Bowl in 1996.

 

[maineman209]

“injury prone” arguments people overuse so much

I generally agree.

It may be legitimate to use the term "injury prone" wrt certain types of injuries, at least when applied as a "risk predictor". For instance, a guy who's suffered a couple-three concussions is probably more likely to suffer future concussions than a guy who's never been concussed. It's logical to say that the guy is "prone" to that specific injury.

This is an informative article on research into potential genetic markers for people who may be at higher risk for ligament and tendon tears, and who may logically be considered to be "injury-prone" in that regard.

The Genetics of Being Injury-Prone - The Atlantic

Repetition of certain specific injuries may logically indicate a "proneness" - e.g., Eric Rowe's issues with his groin; Cannon's ankle injuries (maybe).

OTOH, calling a player "injury prone" who dislocates a finger on another player's helmet, then, a few weeks later takes a helmet to the midsection and is out with bruised ribs for a couple weeks, then suffers a minor MCL sprain a couple weeks after that ... it's not the same thing at all, since the only way those injuries relate to one another is that fact that the guy plays f**king professional football. There's no physiological connection.

A "history" of two or three injuries that are not physiologically related to one another has insignificant predictive value compared to the fact that the guy plays football. Having a run of bad luck with a series of otherwise unrelated injuries isn't being "injury-prone."

 

[TheRainMaker]

I didn't get into watching football (or at least I didn't understand it the way I do now, as a fan), until just after Martin left, and I never followed him with the Jets. He looks like a very good player, and obviously he made it to the Hall -- I'm not expecting Michel to match that, but I do like what he brings to the team currently.

As @Deus Irae has mentioned, people really want to under- or over-rate Michel right now. He's not bad for a rookie, and he can probably get a lot better with experience, but he's also not likely to end up in the HoF or to be considered the best RB in the league (or even the best rookie RB in the league). Nonetheless, he gives our run game a dimension that's lacking without him, so I appreciate his role considerably.

The last full season Martin was with the Pats in '96 was fun to watch. Along with the Jaguars, they were the "Cinderella" team and couldn't believe when the Jags beat the Broncos in the divisional round.

Count me in as someone being obsessed with Martin's career after he went to the Jets. He ran behind some big time O-lines which contributed to taking his career to another level after he left the Pats.

I was 8, I think, when Martin entered the league. I was there for the first touchdown run against the Browns. I think him going to the Jets was the first time I ever felt like I got punched in the gut by football. It felt even worse than losing the Super Bowl in 1996.

If I'm not mistaken, the Pats low balled Martin before he became a free agent? I believe their reasoning of letting him go was because had they resigned him, they wouldn't have been able to keep McGinest, Ty Law and other key pieces on D. Plus they had a few bad contracts on the O-line.

As I said above, the '96 was really fun. But they were lucky to even be in the Super Bowl against the Packers. They put up a good fight, but they were clearly overrmatched as Reggie White single handedly took the game over.

 

[Wheelman]

No worries. I wasn't clear.

Ridley was outstanding in 2012. If Sony can do that next year I'd be ecstatic.

I don't want Sony to fumble

Sorry that's what I remember most about Ridley sadly.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Also, before people flip from underrating Michel to overrating him, take the patience pill. Just stack him up against the other RB1s in the league. Hell, just use the AFC. Then, hope that improved health and game experience comes his way and helps him get better.

I think only Hunt and Gordon are clearly above Michel in the AFC. Other RBs might be slightly ahead of him but you can make an argument for Michel over the likes of Miller, Mixon, etc. if you wanted to.

NFC is a different story, there are four or five guys I'd take over Sony at this point.

 

[ViperGTS]

I think Sony can be very, very good. Just when its clicking and the game is slowing down he gets nicked up. If he can stay healthy, get stronger and the game really slows down he will be a massive weapon. Plus they sneakily got some passes to him thats opens up w even more.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I think only Hunt and Gordon are clearly above Michel in the AFC. Other RBs might be slightly ahead of him but you can make an argument for Michel over the likes of Miller, Mixon, etc. if you wanted to.

NFC is a different story, there are four or five guys I'd take over Sony at this point.

My observation of Hunt is that he's a good example of a "system" back. If he were to leave this offense and go to any other offense, he'd struggle. A lot of his runs are out of trickery and diversion. I haven't seen him run that great when it's straight up.

Miller is garbage.

Mixon is okay. Nothing special.

Yeah, the NFC is loaded with good backs.