Week 11 NFL Games *Bye Week Edition*

[jmt57]

Fox has four Sunday games and CBS has six, yet it is Fox that has this week's doubleheader. The national late game is Philly at New Orleans, and most get Dallas at Atlanta. CBS has a few somewhat compelling games (Hous-Wash, Cincy-Balt, Tenn-Indy), but most the game going to most of the population is instead Pitt-Jax.

I was speaking with someone this last week or so about how Fox has consistently jammed the NFC East down our collective throats for years. Their response was 'the tv networks and the NFL have done the same exact thing with the Patriots'.

I responded by pointing out that what most NFL fans want to see is good quality teams if it is in a time slot when their favorite team is not playing. I pointed out that the Pats are on their way to their 18th consecutive winning season, and have made the playoffs in all but two of those years - in situations when they missed the playoffs despite being tied for first in their division.

'By comparison' I continued, 'the Cowboys - a team with a losing record this year - have won two playoff games in the last 17 seasons (about to become 18).'

The baffled look on this person's face and lack of response was priceless, something straight out of My Cousin Vinny.

And I didn't even have a need to call on Mona Lisa Vito to corroborate my facts.


Lots of good games this week. Three games between two teams with winning records (KC-Rams, Minn-Chi, Hous-Wash), plus GB-Sea, Cin-Bal, Tenn-Indy, Dal-Atl, Philly-Saints.



NATIONAL BROADCASTS

• Thursday Night: Green Bay (4-4-1) @ Seattle (4-5), (Fox/NFLN)

• Sunday Night: Minnesota (5-3-1) @ Chicago (6-3), (NBC)

• Monday Night: Kansas City (9-1) @ LA Rams (9-1), (espn)

CBS Single Game:

Red: Pittsburgh (6-2-1) @ Jacksonville (3-6); Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Green: Houston (6-3) @ Washington (6-3); Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Bruce Arians
Yellow: Cincinnati (5-4) @ Baltimore (4-5); Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Aqua: Tennessee (5-4) @ Indianapolis (4-5); Andrew Catalon, James Lofton
Blue: Denver (3-6) @ LA Chargers (7-2) (LATE); Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Orange: Oakland (1-8) at Arizona (2-7) (LATE); Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

Fox Early Game:

Red: Dallas (4-5) @ Atlanta (4-5); Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis
Blue: Tampa Bay (3-6) @ NY Giants (2-7); Thom Brennaman, Chris Spielman
Green: Carolina (6-3) @ Detroit (3-6); Kenny Albert, Ronde Barber
Gray: NO GAME due to local home game on CBS


Fox Late Game:

Red: Philadelphia (4-5) @ New Orleans (8-1); Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
Gray: NO GAME due to local home game on CBS

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

Week 11 NFL Games *Bye Week Edition*


Lots of good games this week including one of the biggest of the year on Monday Night.

1pm

Steelers @ Jags
I do not see the Steelers getting the #1 seed.

4 of their remaining 6 games are on the road (including @ Saints) and the two home games are against AFC elites (Pats/Chargers). I have their ceiling at 11-4-1

Regardless, if the Pats do not catch KC, they will be fighting the Steelers for the #2 seed. The Jags are now on a five-game losing streak and 3.5 games out of 1st place in their division. Have they given up?

Texans @ Redskins
Though record-wise they are technically in play for a HFA seed, I don't take them seriously. That being said, this is the toughest game left on their schedule and if they win it I suppose I'll have to take a little more seriously. Having a tiebreaker head-to-head over them further alleviates any potential worry.

Bengals @ Ravens
A loss for the Ravens here would essentially be a kill shot to their season and in turn the Harbaugh era. Definitely rooting for the Bengals here. The end of the Flacco/Harbaugh era is one I welcome, as they've proven to be right with the Couglin/Eli duo as the Pats biggeest potential playoff headache regardless of their regular season performance

Titans @ Colts
Panthers @ Lions
Cowboys @ Falcons
Bucs @ Giants

4pm
Eagles @ Saints
Broncos @ Chargers
Raiders @ Cardinals

SNF
Vikings @ Bears

MNF
Chiefs "@" Rams

This game is insanely huge. If the Chiefs win, I unfortunately see the #1 seed being pretty much over.

IF they win, they'd be 10-1 with 4 of their final 5 games against teams without a winning record....

@ Raiders
vs Ravens
vs Chargers
@ Seahawks
vs Raiders

...then to me, even the realistic best case scenario is they drop 2 of those games (perhaps vs Chargers and @ Seahawks) and finish 13-3 which would require us to still run the table to go 13-3 ourselves and get the tiebreaker.

 

[Bradyking12]

Realistic for Chiefs to drop to Rams/Chargers but they have to lose to the Rams.

 

[fourhour]

All four AFC East has a bye.....

Must be some kind of NYFL punishment!

 

[jmt57]

NFL - Week 11 of 17 - Post Season Probabilities

Way too early & too much information department:
Current playoff probabilities, with changes if team wins or loses this weekend
Per PlayoffStatus.com

Chiefs: currently at 73% to get #1 seed
Increases to 86% with win over Rams; drop to 66% with loss.

Patriots (bye): 8% probability of #1 seed
30% for #2, 25% for #3, 24% for #4

Steelers: currently at 32% for a first round bye
Increases to 37% with win at Jacksonville; drops to 18% with loss

Texans: currently at 58% to win AFCS, 78% to make playoffs
Win at Washington increases winning AFCS to 68%, playoffs to 86%
Loss drops chance of winning division to 53%, making playoffs to 74%

Chargers: 13% to win AFCW; are home vs Broncos
Win increases playoff chances to 93%; loss drops that to 82%

Bengals: currently given 24% chance to win AFCN, 50% to make playoffs
A win at Baltimore increases playoff odds to 74%
A loss to Ravens drops playoff chances to 36%

Titans: now at 36% to win division, 51% to make playoffs
Win at Indy increases chance of winning AFCS to 44%, playoffs to 63%
A loss drops those odds to 26% and 38% respectively

Dolphins: graded as having a 22% chance of making the playoffs
A loss next week drops that number to 12%

Ravens: at 4-5 they currently only have a 16% chance of making the playoffs
A victory against Cincy increases those odds to 22%
A loss to the Bengals drops Baltimore's playoff chances to just 4%

Colts: now at 6% to win AFCS and 12% to make playoffs
A home win vs Tennessee only slightly increases playoff chances to 16%

=======================================

Rams: even if they lose to the Chiefs their playoff odds are still over 99%
A win increases their chances of #1 seed from 42% to 52%
A loss drops the chance of the top seed to 27%

Saints have a 83% chance for a first round bye
A loss drops their chances for #1 seed from 52% to 30%

Washington (6-3) has a 79% chance to win NFCE, 85% to make playoffs
A home win vs Houston increases those odds to 86% and 91%
A loss decreases their numbers to 74% and 81%

6-3 Chicago is home against 5-3-1 Minnesota in a big NFC North game

A Bears win increases their odds of winning the NFCN from 56% to 69%
A Bears win also increases their odds of making the playoffs from 75% to 85%
A loss drops Chicago's odds to 39% for the division and 64% for the playoffs

The Vikings are currently at 33% to win the division, 55% to make the playoffs
A victory ups their chances to 47% for the NFCN and 69% for the playoffs
A loss drops the Vikes to 20% to win the division, 46% to make the playoffs

The 6-3 Panthers are at 12% to win the NFC South and 69% to make the playoffs
A win at Detroit increases their playoff odds to 77%
A loss to the Lions drops their chances down to 58%

The Seahawks now have a 40% chance to make the wild card after beating Green Bay

With that loss the Packers have 9% chance to win the NFCN, 24% to make the playoffs

The Falcons have just a 17% chance to make the playoffs
A win vs Dallas increases those odds to 22%; a loss drops them to 4-6 and 7%

Dallas (21%) is given a much better chance to make the playoffs than Philly (8%)

If the Cowboys win at Atlanta, their odds to make the playoffs increase to 28%;
a loss drops their odds to 12%

An Eagles upset win at New Orleans only increases their odds of making the playoffs to 15%

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I was speaking with someone this last week or so about how Fox has consistently jammed the NFC East down our collective throats for years. Their response was 'the tv networks and the NFL have done the same exact thing with the Patriots'.

The simple reason for this is ratings. Remember when NE@BAL set a Monday Night Football ratings record (for ESPN, at least)?

That record lasted just a few games. It was broken in September 2008 by an Eagles-Cowboys game.

 

[Joey007]

This uni combination of Cowboys and the Falcons in their throwbacks is a thing of beauty.

 

[TomPatriot]

Watching Butler miss a tackle and give up a catch to the ColtsTE.

 

[TomPatriot]

Giants score again.

Go Jags!

 

[Joey007]

d%#*!@t, that’s the team we lost to last week?

 

[Froob]

Steelers win but Jags cover. -6 is too much, Jags are bringing it.

 

[TomPatriot]

d%#*!@t, that’s the team we lost to last week?

Letdown from Vrabel’s Super Bowl win last week.

 

[nabwong]

Jags are playing lights out on D. Hope they win.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Steelers win but Jags cover. -6 is too much, Jags are bringing it.

Ramsay is on antonio like white on rice. Smothering pitts run game as well. Jacksonville has no passing o whatsoever though, pitt will eventually crack through.

 

[turkeyneck]

Horrific drop by Vernon Davis.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

Nice to see Jax bleeding the Steelers. Especially with the Steelers having to travel to Denver next week.

 

[TheRainMaker]

DeMarcus Lawerence is off to having a big game. Already has 1.5 sacks which gives him 8 on the season. This is good news for the Pats having him and Frank Clark racking up sacks as it will be easier to resign Trey Flowers sitting at 2.5 sacks. Flowers has not had more than 7 sacks in a season and his numbers have dipped the last two years since his first year starting. Can't command top dollar with numbers like that. I don't think we should be worried resigning him.

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

Hey look, another AFC south team that had a career game against us is sucking the following week.

 

[nabwong]

That was a heck of an interception by Ramsey. Never touched the ground. Not only a phenomenal play but phenomenal play design to disguise the coverage.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

So you telling me the team we lost to last week would come out completely flat today? Shocked I tell you.