The WR position for the first 4 games now...

[maineman209]

Dorsett
Hogan
Patterson
...maybe Britt...
...the severed leg of Malcolm Mitchell...
Am I missing someone... I hope so...

...otherwise, if my face was my avatar, it would be...

Using just the players who have been practicing and who seem to be having the most successful reps so far (and assuming that they're all healthy and on the roster), I'd guess that 65%-75% of Brady's targets during Edelman's suspension go to a group comprising Gronk, Hogan, Dorsett and some combo of White-Burkhead.

Hollister, Patterson and Allen seem most likely (to me) to cover another 15%-20% of Brady's targets over the first four games, with Michel, Develin and whoever else makes the WR, RB and TE rosters getting whatever is left.

These are projected cumulative percentages for the first four weeks. I'd guess there will be some significant week-to-week churn wrt who's the 3rd/4th most-targeted.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Jo Jo LaFell anyone?? Maybe he has straightened out his head, he does know the system and its expectations..

We just need to get him to leave his home in Tucson, AZ and give him some pot from Berkeley

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Reminder of the benchmark:

It’s a good thing we won’t have to see that douche t.o

 

[Hyped]

Patterson is not a vertical threat and Dorsett has not proven it.

The only proven vertical threat on the roster is Hogs.

You could argue Gronk is deep intermediate

Patterson has (I believe) only 1 reception of over 20 yards last year. Nonetheless, the dude has the speed to attack the 2nd/3rd levels of the D and has been making one handed catches over the last few days.

Dorsett spent a lot of time blocking and running decoy routes last year though. 377 snaps, 18 targets, 12 catches, 1 rushing attempt, and all in 15 games. With him moving more into the slot this camp...he could be running up the seam and splitting the safety.

Point being that if defenses are gonna flood the 1st/2nd level area...we have options at least.

 

[maineman209]

Note, the list here is base on receiving yard, rather than targets. Slightly different skew, but same basic idea.

 

[PatsFan2]

Patterson has (I believe) only 1 reception of over 20 yards last year. Nonetheless, the dude has the speed to attack the 2nd/3rd levels of the D and has been making one handed catches over the last few days.

Dorsett spent a lot of time blocking and running decoy routes last year though. 377 snaps, 18 targets, 12 catches, 1 rushing attempt, and all in 15 games. With him moving more into the slot this camp...he could be running up the seam and splitting the safety.

Point being that if defenses are gonna flood the 1st/2nd level area...we have options at least.

Speed?? what speed?? his career average does not scream speed. Patterson is what he is and that's a JAG who should not be counted on in your regular Offense. He's a poor route runner who only looks good in Practice and suck in the real games. That said he's a Good ST's player but that's it.

 

[Hyped]

Speed?? what speed?? his career average does not scream speed. Patterson is what he is and that's a JAG who should not be counted on in your regular Offense. He's a poor route runner who only looks good in Practice and suck in the real games. That said he's a Good ST's player but that's it.

4.42/40 at the combine. If that isn't fast, I don't know what is.

I believe you are vastly underrating Patterson now and will be pleasantly surprised this year by his contributions on offense.

 

[PatsFan2]

4.42/40 at the combine. If that isn't fast, I don't know what is.

I believe you are vastly underrating Patterson now and will be pleasantly surprised this year by his contributions on offense.

4.42/40?? That have yet to translate or haven't you heard?? Because Patterson is a poor route runner he doesn't get any separation against quality DB's. One handed catches are nice but he ain't going to make a career doing that. How many one handed catches does a good WR make a game?? Not many. Before the Decker signing it shows what dire straits we were in when we are getting excited over Coradelle Patterson's meager highlights.

 

[Hyped]

4.42/40?? That have yet to translate or haven't you heard?? Because Patterson is a poor route runner he doesn't get any separation against quality DB's. One handed catches are nice but he ain't going to make a career doing that. How many one handed catches does a good WR make a game?? Not many. Before the Decker signing it shows what dire straits we were in when we are getting excited over Coradelle Patterson's meager highlights.

We will definitely have to wait and see...

In the Patriots offense...we all know Gronk and Edelman are gonna get the bulk of targets (probably 40% or 240 of all of Brady's 600 or so attempts). Following them, it's probably Hogan and White (for another 20% or 120 targets) before we get to our WR3. Even then, the WR3 will be competing for the 300 or so leftover targets with everybody else that makes the 45 game day roster (Dorsett, Britt, Patterson, Burkhead, Berrios, McCarron, Michel?, and/or even Mitchell).

I think one of Patterson/Doresett will be our WR3 this year in terms of targets as well as offensive snaps. I also think they will out perform everyone else not named Gronk/Edelman/Hogan/White in terms of targets and receptions.

Both are healthy now, practicing now, having good practices, and have the measurables NFL teams want. I once read somewhere...one of those Patriots books written over the last 10-15 years...it was mentioned that the Patriots like to bring in players from other teams that flamed out for various of reasons, but were highly graded by the Patriots' scouting staff during the draft. The belief being that they don't grade a scout for their grade on the said player for their performance on another team, just what they do in Foxboro.

We'll find out what the coaching staff is thinking when we see who trots out against the Panthers in pre-season week 3....yup, I am likely more optimistic on Patterson/Dorsett than others here.. (takes a tip of the Kool Aid)….

 

[maineman209]

We will definitely have to wait and see...

In the Patriots offense...we all know Gronk and Edelman are gonna get the bulk of targets (probably 40% or 240 of all of Brady's 600 or so attempts). Following them, it's probably Hogan and White (for another 20% or 120 targets) before we get to our WR3. Even then, the WR3 will be competing for the 300 or so leftover targets with everybody else that makes the 45 game day roster (Dorsett, Britt, Patterson, Burkhead, Berrios, McCarron, Michel?, and/or even Mitchell).

I think one of Patterson/Doresett will be our WR3 this year in terms of targets as well as offensive snaps. I also think they will out perform everyone else not named Gronk/Edelman/Hogan/White in terms of targets and receptions.

Both are healthy now, practicing now, having good practices, and have the measurables NFL teams want. I once read somewhere...one of those Patriots books written over the last 10-15 years...it was mentioned that the Patriots like to bring in players from other teams that flamed out for various of reasons, but were highly graded by the Patriots' scouting staff during the draft. The belief being that they don't grade a scout for their grade on the said player for their performance on another team, just what they do in Foxboro.

We'll find out what the coaching staff is thinking when we see who trots out against the Panthers in pre-season week 3....yup, I am likely more optimistic on Patterson/Dorsett than others here.. (takes a tip of the Kool Aid)….

Math quibble:

With Edelman coming off his ACL injury and playing a max of 12 regular season games, it seems to me that his targets/game may be down a bit from his 2013-2016 pace (9.67), and his total for the season will certainly be reduced. If Gronk stays healthy for 16 games and maintains his recent four-year average for tgts/game, he might see 120 (maybe), but Edelman seems likely to be closer to 80-90 for the season (still 6.5-7.5/game).

Seems like a minor difference, but, in conjunction with projecting which player/players end up compensating for Edelman's absence on intermediate-range routes, it might skew the final season total target distributions a tad.

 

[PatsFan2]

We will definitely have to wait and see...

In the Patriots offense...we all know Gronk and Edelman are gonna get the bulk of targets (probably 40% or 240 of all of Brady's 600 or so attempts). Following them, it's probably Hogan and White (for another 20% or 120 targets) before we get to our WR3. Even then, the WR3 will be competing for the 300 or so leftover targets with everybody else that makes the 45 game day roster (Dorsett, Britt, Patterson, Burkhead, Berrios, McCarron, Michel?, and/or even Mitchell).

I think one of Patterson/Doresett will be our WR3 this year in terms of targets as well as offensive snaps. I also think they will out perform everyone else not named Gronk/Edelman/Hogan/White in terms of targets and receptions.

Both are healthy now, practicing now, having good practices, and have the measurables NFL teams want. I once read somewhere...one of those Patriots books written over the last 10-15 years...it was mentioned that the Patriots like to bring in players from other teams that flamed out for various of reasons, but were highly graded by the Patriots' scouting staff during the draft. The belief being that they don't grade a scout for their grade on the said player for their performance on another team, just what they do in Foxboro.

We'll find out what the coaching staff is thinking when we see who trots out against the Panthers in pre-season week 3....yup, I am likely more optimistic on Patterson/Dorsett than others here.. (takes a tip of the Kool Aid)….

One player you seemed to have missed in your calculations who have been active with the ones is one move TE Jacob Hollister. I think he's going to do a heck of alot more for this Offense than Patterson. BB and others are raving about his marked improvements. Hollister also seems to have Brady's trust... We haven't had a good compliment TE since the criminal. Hollister might buck that trend. P.s. no disrespect to Marty B but Gronk got hurt that year the two rarely played together.

 

[mgteich]

Do you agree with the following?
Tier 1: Gronk, Edelman, Hogan, White
Tier 2: Patterson, Dorsett, Burkhead

IMHO, there is little room for anyone else. The above includes 4 WR's and 7 total targets. My guess is that in the first 4 games, the RB's may be the ones getting more reps. Our rookie WR might even get a target or two.

As we have discussed before, the #4 and #5 WR's get very few reps. And, yes I do expect another WR to make the 53, especially if he is a punt returner, although Britt (or even Mitchell) might beat out that player for the 4th WR spot to start the season.

Math quibble:

With Edelman coming off his ACL injury and playing a max of 12 regular season games, it seems to me that his targets/game may be down a bit from his 2013-2016 pace (9.67), and his total for the season will certainly be reduced. If Gronk stays healthy for 16 games and maintains his recent four-year average for tgts/game, he might see 120 (maybe), but Edelman seems likely to be closer to 80-90 for the season (still 6.5-7.5/game).

Seems like a minor difference, but, in conjunction with projecting which player/players end up compensating for Edelman's absence on intermediate-range routes, it might skew the final season total target distributions a tad.

 

[maineman209]

Do you agree with the following?
Tier 1: Gronk, Edelman, Hogan, White
Tier 2: Patterson, Dorsett, Burkhead

IMHO, there is little room for anyone else. The above includes 4 WR's and 7 total targets. My guess is that in the first 4 games, the RB's may be the ones getting more reps. Our rookie WR might even get a target or two.

As we have discussed before, the #4 and #5 WR's get very few reps. And, yes I do expect another WR to make the 53, especially if he is a punt returner, although Britt (or even Mitchell) might beat out that player for the 4th WR spot to start the season.

Calculating "Tier 1" as players who see 4+ targets per game on average for the season, I'm not sure that either White or Burkhead will end up as "Tier 1" on an individual basis THIS year. However, their combined targets (5-7/game between the two of them) will certainly qualify - perhaps even as 3rd-highest total for the season.

On an individual basis, Dorsett might end up in Tier-1 in average tgts/game.

Patterson averaging 2.5-3.5 tgts/game puts him squarely in Tier 2. I definitely agree that everyone else is "Tier 3" (<2 tgts/game average for the season).

I suspect that the "rookie punt returner" versus (whoever else) question will remain a lively debate all the way through final cuts (and probably for weeks after, knowing this board).

 

[Hyped]

One player you seemed to have missed in your calculations who have been active with the ones is one move TE Jacob Hollister. I think he's going to do a heck of alot more for this Offense than Patterson. BB and others are raving about his marked improvements. Hollister also seems to have Brady's trust... We haven't had a good compliment TE since the criminal. Hollister might buck that trend. P.s. no disrespect to Marty B but Gronk got hurt that year the two rarely played together.

I like what I am hearing about Hollister too. However, he isn't getting on the field as a blocker...so it would depend on what we are trying to do. Last year, we played mostly in a 3WR format....and we haven't really brought in a 2TE passing formation since O'Brien was the OC...like you alluded to..Marty never really got to play with Gronk.

Do you agree with the following?
Tier 1: Gronk, Edelman, Hogan, White
Tier 2: Patterson, Dorsett, Burkhead

IMHO, there is little room for anyone else. The above includes 4 WR's and 7 total targets. My guess is that in the first 4 games, the RB's may be the ones getting more reps. Our rookie WR might even get a target or two.

As we have discussed before, the #4 and #5 WR's get very few reps. And, yes I do expect another WR to make the 53, especially if he is a punt returner, although Britt (or even Mitchell) might beat out that player for the 4th WR spot to start the season.

Yes, I like that tier...but White is hard to figure out though.

 

[Tony2046]

I like what I am hearing about Hollister too. However, he isn't getting on the field as a blocker...so it would depend on what we are trying to do. Last year, we played mostly in a 3WR format....and we haven't really brought in a 2TE passing formation since O'Brien was the OC...like you alluded to..Marty never really got to play with Gronk.



Yes, I like that tier...but White is hard to figure out though.

I've read that he's bulked up so he might get on the field as a blocker if true. It's one of those things I'll definitely be watching for.

 

[maineman209]

Yes, I like that tier...but White is hard to figure out though.

It's difficult for me to project how McD may use him this season. In 2015 & 2016, his role was very Vereen-like, and he contributed quite a bit in the intermediate-target-range passing game.

Then, last season, his role changed a bit. He seemed to be kept closer to the LoS - slightly fewer tgts/game and more of them at short-range, slightly more carries per game (3.1 v 2.4 in 2016), more snaps kept in for pass-pro, and yet more touches overall.

That may have been part of the overall adjustments to compensate for the loss of Edelman, and maybe he has a similar role for the first four games this season, and then changes back to something more Vereen-ish. But, y'know, maybe not.

The Brady/McD combo has mastered the art of bait-and-switch. They show a tendency that they know opposing defense have seen on tape, and then do something completely different.

 

[maineman209]

I've read that he's bulked up so he might get on the field as a blocker if true. It's one of those things I'll definitely be watching for.

I will, too.

When he was blocking last year, he was certainly willing - even eager. His technique was raw and he probably could have used more upper body strength, but he wasn't particularly ineffective in that regard. He was also pretty effective on ST.

However, while bulking up may help him over all, the main issue I had with his blocking last season was that he too frequently didn't seem to understand his blocking assignments, often blocking the wrong guy (he collided with Solder on at least a few occasions that I saw), or not blocking/chipping a guy that he obviously should have.

That's the part I'll be watching.

 

[Triumph]

Speed?? what speed?? his career average does not scream speed. Patterson is what he is and that's a JAG who should not be counted on in your regular Offense. He's a poor route runner who only looks good in Practice and suck in the real games. That said he's a Good ST's player but that's it.

Patterson has the type of hands that Brady likes. Great.

9 of 10 vs the Broncos = 90%
4 of 4 vs the Pats = 100%
4 of 4 vs the Giants = 100%

He averaged 73% catch rate last year hardly being used. Cordarrelle Patterson 2017 Splits | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[Triumph]

4.42/40?? That have yet to translate or haven't you heard?? Because Patterson is a poor route runner he doesn't get any separation against quality DB's. One handed catches are nice but he ain't going to make a career doing that. How many one handed catches does a good WR make a game?? Not many. Before the Decker signing it shows what dire straits we were in when we are getting excited over Coradelle Patterson's meager highlights.

Bench warmer.

 

[Bruins29]

4.42/40?? That have yet to translate or haven't you heard?? Because Patterson is a poor route runner he doesn't get any separation against quality DB's. One handed catches are nice but he ain't going to make a career doing that. How many one handed catches does a good WR make a game?? Not many. Before the Decker signing it shows what dire straits we were in when we are getting excited over Coradelle Patterson's meager highlights.