Cliff Avrill: SB 49 ruined Seattle

[Doctor DDS]

It just proves how hard it is to win the Super Bowl let alone several. Seattle had a financial advantage with Wilson on his rookie contract plus some defensive studs. Once the bill came due they found it very hard to maintain their talent advantage. Part of what makes the Patriots run so amazing. Would have been nice to keep Seymour, Jones, Collins etc.. over the years but the cap forces teams to make hard decisions and being able to constantly rebuild while also staying competitive for championships is what separates an organization like the Pats from the others.

 

[supafly]

That was also a sloppy throw by Wilson. I thought that Wilson's execution was the weak link in the playcall.

First because he telegraphs the pass, which is why Browner was able to get up and jam the pick. The Patriots defense read that play because Wilson was not subtle.

Secondly, because the throw was not on target. If he throws it right at the numbers, Lockette is in a good position to box out Butler and make the catch. Because Wilson led the target a little, Lockette's slightly off balance reaching for the ball, and Butler is able to plant himself and check Lockette out of the way, securing the football for himself

If he had to miss there, he should have aimed to miss behind Lockette, where the worst case scenario is that Lockette doesn't make the catch, or is downed at the one, and Lockette can probably protect the ball with his body and at least keep the drive alive. Because the throw was such that Lockette could only use his hands to catch it, and not his body, Butler was able to establish position over him and take the ball away.

so yeah, I always thought that the weakest part of the play was Wilson's throw, not Carroll's call

This.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[maust]

so yeah, I always thought that the weakest part of the play was Wilson's throw, not Carroll's call

Not to split hairs, the throw was poor but it should never have been made. The weakest part of that play happened between Wilson's ears, his decision making there was horrific under the game circumstances. The moment Browner came up and made the jam that ball should have been thrown away to stop the clock. Even if Wilson hit him in the numbers Butler takes him down for no gain and they have to burn their last timeout which forces a pass on the next play as an unsuccessful run play on 3rd with no TO would have ended the game. An incompletion would have left them with the timeout and the opportunity to do whatever they wanted on 3rd. Browner and Butler recognized what they saw, Wilson did not. We have no way of knowing how much of that was on him (if he was coached up on that read) and how much is on the coaches (if he wasn't) but that pass should have been thrown away.

Of course what put all that in motion was Belichick keeping the heat on Carroll by letting the clock run while the rest of the entire football universe, especially Seattle, was expecting him to call a timeout.

 

[PP2]

Not to split hairs, the throw was poor but it should never have been made. The weakest part of that play happened between Wilson's ears, his decision making there was horrific under the game circumstances. The moment Browner came up and made the jam that ball should have been thrown away to stop the clock. Even if Wilson hit him in the numbers Butler takes him down for no gain and they have to burn their last timeout which forces a pass on the next play as an unsuccessful run play on 3rd with no TO would have ended the game. An incompletion would have left them with the timeout and the opportunity to do whatever they wanted on 3rd. Browner and Butler recognized what they saw, Wilson did not. We have no way of knowing how much of that was on him (if he was coached up on that read) and how much is on the coaches (if he wasn't) but that pass should have been thrown away.

Of course what put all that in motion was Belichick keeping the heat on Carroll by letting the clock run while the rest of the entire football universe, especially Seattle, was expecting him to call a timeout.

While I agree that where Wilson failed was between his ears (he could have thrown at the feet to kill the play and live for one more down, but even that's debatable as I would imagine him thinking that Lockette would outmuscle the smaller Butler), I would argue that Wilson is not the main culprit here. As has been mentioned many times, we knew that the play was going to be a rub route. It failed before it even begun, so Carroll/his OC would be the guy to crucify here.

It was otherwise a designed pick play with Lockette being the hot read since Wilson commits the crime of looking at Lockette right before the snap, a bad habit many QBs develop, and based on this, I do not believe that there was a second read or a fallback, which meant that even though Wilson would have recognized Browner playing shallow on the twins with Butler right behind, he had no other choice but to try and thread the eye of the needle.

 

[Todd Bradley]

Tell that to the Raiders fans who STILL aren't over the Tuck Rule game

In all fairness, Brady still does play for the Pats

 

[maust]

While I agree that where Wilson failed was between his ears (he could have thrown at the feet to kill the play and live for one more down, but even that's debatable as I would imagine him thinking that Lockette would outmuscle the smaller Butler), I would argue that Wilson is not the main culprit here. As has been mentioned many times, we knew that the play was going to be a rub route. It failed before it even begun, so Carroll/his OC would be the guy to crucify here.

It was otherwise a designed pick play with Lockette being the hot read since Wilson commits the crime of looking at Lockette right before the snap, a bad habit many QBs develop, and based on this, I do not believe that there was a second read or a fallback, which meant that even though Wilson would have recognized Browner playing shallow on the twins with Butler right behind, he had no other choice but to try and thread the eye of the needle.

There's no doubt that play was to Lockette or to no one but saying Wilson had no choice "but to try and thread the eye of the needle" is way off the mark. Carroll himself referred to it as a 'throw away play' in recognition of the game circumstances. "So on second down, we throw the ball really to kind of waste that play. If we score, we do. If we don't, then we'll run it in on third and fourth down, really, with no second thoughts or hesitation in that at all." Meaning the 2nd 'read' on that play was not so much a read as it was an imperative to stop the clock. The idea of 'out muscling' someone on a 1 yard slant is baseless and there is certainly no eye to thread on a 1 yard slant. The call was not the issue, the execution was. Without knowing what Wilson was taught how do we know whether what happened between those ears was more his fault or the coaching staff's?

 

[PP2]

There's no doubt that play was to Lockette or to no one but saying Wilson had no choice "but to try and thread the eye of the needle" is way off the mark. Carroll himself referred to it as a 'throw away play' in recognition of the game circumstances. "So on second down, we throw the ball really to kind of waste that play. If we score, we do. If we don't, then we'll run it in on third and fourth down, really, with no second thoughts or hesitation in that at all." Meaning the 2nd 'read' on that play was not so much a read as it was an imperative to stop the clock. The idea of 'out muscling' someone on a 1 yard slant is baseless and there is certainly no eye to thread on a 1 yard slant. The call was not the issue, the execution was. Without knowing what Wilson was taught how do we know whether what happened between those ears was more his fault or the coaching staff's?

I understand what you're saying, and I am aware of what Carroll said, but I am of the opinion that his statement was purely a CYA statement, because to call a hot read a throwaway play is a complete contradiction in and of itself and I am sure you're aware of that. Why go to the trouble of a hot read when you're just throwing away the play?

Wilson takes the snap and immediately throws right at Lockette with the intent of having him score. Where in the split second of doing that, does he even have the time to consider throwing away the play (remember the imperative is to score, as in "if we score, we do")?

In that regard, it's not farfetched to imagine that Wilson felt like he had no other option but to thread the needle.

Seattle has used this play plenty of times and I've never seen it become a throwaway. It was always a hot read as far as I'm aware.

Just food for thought.

 

[maust]

I understand what you're saying, and I am aware of what Carroll said, but I am of the opinion that his statement was purely a CYA statement, because to call a hot read a throwaway play is a complete contradiction in and of itself and I am sure you're aware of that. Why go to the trouble of a hot read when you're just throwing away the play?

Wilson takes the snap and immediately throws right at Lockette with the intent of having him score. Where in the split second of doing that, does he even have the time to consider throwing away the play (remember the imperative is to score, as in "if we score, we do")?

In that regard, it's not farfetched to imagine that Wilson felt like he had no other option but to thread the needle.

Seattle has used this play plenty of times and I've never seen it become a throwaway. It was always a hot read as far as I'm aware.

Just food for thought.

My bad, apparently I did not present as good a case as I had hoped to or you would not believe you understand what I am saying when you do not. That play was not the result of a 'hot read' it was a designed slant. A hot read involves the QB seeing a blitz & calling an audible for the 'hot' WR to break his route, that play had nothing to do with a hot read, Lockette ran the route the play called for. The read on that play involved Wilson reading the coverage and understanding if Browner comes up and makes the jam then the pick can't be set and the ball needs to be thrown away. Please look at the first 2 seconds of the video and you'll realize you're not remembering the play correctly. There was no blitz sand nothing 'hot' about the read in that play, it was a designed slant predicated on Kearse breaking inside Browner and picking Butler. Similarly 'threading the needle' involves throwing the ball between defenders to a receiver, with no one between Lockette and the ball there is no eye to thread so I have no idea where you are getting that from from. You must have that play confused with another one.

 

[PP2]

My bad, apparently I did not present as good a case as I had hoped to or you would not believe you understand what I am saying when you do not. That play was not the result of a 'hot read' it was a designed slant. A hot read involves the QB seeing a blitz & calling an audible for the 'hot' WR to break his route, that play had nothing to do with a hot read, Lockette ran the route the play called for. The read on that play involved Wilson reading the coverage and understanding if Browner comes up and makes the jam then the pick can't be set and the ball needs to be thrown away. Please look at the first 2 seconds of the video and you'll realize you're not remembering the play correctly. There was no blitz sand nothing 'hot' about the read in that play, it was a designed slant predicated on Kearse breaking inside Browner and picking Butler. Similarly 'threading the needle' involves throwing the ball between defenders to a receiver, with no one between Lockette and the ball there is no eye to thread so I have no idea where you are getting that from from. You must have that play confused with another one.

No, you're right. I should have reviewed the play to refresh my memory prior to discussing it. This was laziness on my part and uncalled for. Please accept my apology.

 

[maust]

No, you're right. I should have reviewed the play to refresh my memory prior to discussing it. This was laziness on my part and uncalled for. Please accept my apology.

All good, I figured it was a trick of memory. At least we were civil about it.
We all make mistakes, God knows I make my fair share. True failure lies in not recognizing & acknowledging them, seems some folks online forget that...
I'd like to think most Pats fans are better than that, now I know you are.