Random Blasphemy ~ Unsolicited Speculation!!

[aluminum seats]

I tend to agree with a lot here, although I think Rowe can be a useful player.

You can win with Cooks, but I too hated that leap so I won't care much if he goes.

 

[Off The Grid]

One sentence response :

You don’t do a ‘reboot season’ without replacing a 41 year old QB

Thanks, bud. Always eager to benefit from your words of wisdom.

Dump the greatest player in the history of the game? Got it.

I'll be sure to give your advice all due consideration.

if you took a moment to comprehend the bigger point that continue to delve in your bullsh.t dialogue:

YOU DON'T DO REBOOT SEASONS WITH A 41 YEAR OLD QB

you're not going to waste a single season with a guy that old.........wake up a think for a change

Always grateful to receive your extraordinary wisdom and insight, IC.

And your grammatical pyrotechnics are spectacular, as always.

 

[Off The Grid]

I tend to agree with a lot here, although I think Rowe can be a useful player.

You can win with Cooks, but I too hated that leap so I won't care much if he goes.

Concur on both accounts, Sir!! I only include Rowe among the cuts because there're several CornerBacks that I would love to've seen us/would love to see us pounce on.

 

[Off The Grid]

You call a 5’8 185lb WR putting his head down and driving into a defender “being a man”...I call it being dumb

I'll defer to your all too evident expertise on the latter matter, of course.

But I said no such thing. Time for some remedial English, big fella.

 

[luuked]

Just a few thoughts that I've had about our current off season. Many'f'm'll be about moves that've already been made or could've been made, though some'f'm're about moves that might yet be.

I continue to bite off more than I can chew in the Work/School/Workout/Blog worlds, so I probably will fall short, yet again, of the goal of contributing to the Draft Forum, but for anyone who wants to comment on my draft-inclusive theoretical off season, that's where it'll be, though not until the eve of The Draft and, more likely, not until afterwards!! But in any case, I've gotten a lot more out'f this Site, via y'all contributing your thoughts, than I've given back, for quite a while, now, so I'm redoubling my efforts, as they say, to be less'f a lurker and more'f a contributor. Here's hoping this finds y'all well!!

....

12 ~ OK, that’s a total of just about $40,000,000 in Cap Space to play with. That doesn’t count any changes reconfiguring or extending Brady, Gronkowski, or anyone else might entail. Me, I detest the business of pushing Salary Cap hits down the road, so I wouldn’t do any such thing, but I’m just acknowledging those things…It also doesn’t include the dozen players, all at about $500,000 or so ~ so that’s about another $6,000,000, not including other guys who’re likely to get cut, later ~ that I’ll ignore, in the interest of accounting for Rookie Contracts.

My main issue is that you are replacing a couple of known quantities where none is a total bust (even Richards played well as personal protector on ST) with a set of unknown players where each could prove to be a negative, neutral or positive.

e.g. I loved Smelter during the draft but I dont see how anything he has shown so far in the league is better than what we have with e.g. Britt. Moves like that introduce volatility to a roster at a point where it really is not necessary.

If you do this with surgeon precision at 1-2 spots it is a different story but you are suggesting a total rebuild of an offense that played fairly well throughout the year. The one thing I learned from over 15 years of BB running the show is to never be concerned with cap space unless totally unexpected things happen (e.g. Hernandez being on the books). The roster is build in such flexible ways that dont leverage the future that there are always ways to create space if an opportunity presents itself. Or in other words, I dont think cap space will ever the major driving factor for signing or not signing a player for the Patriots but only their internal evaluation of said player relative to market value. There is no better front office when it comes to salary cap management in this league.


In terms of Cooks, I agree that he is less than what many of us imagined when we signed him. But on some level this is our own fault because the signs that he is not someone who can go through the middle (or apparently even run a crossing route) were already there in NO. Him becoming a light version of Antonio Brown was a pipedream that many (including experts like Chatham) had but which will most probably never happen.

That being said the only reason I dont think he will be traded is because I just cant imagine BB & Caserio not thinking a few seasons ahead (like they usually do) when they traded the pick for him. They knew he would cost 8m in year two and then maybe become an issue to resign. But as others have said with the way they are building their roster it is more likely that they are looking at contracts as an average over time so even potentially tagging Cooks for one more year might be on the table. It would still result in him being here for 3 years for less than 10m APY.

Is he worth 15m APY ? Nope. Is he worth about 10m APY ? It is getting warmer. Maybe they can design a contract that effectively gives him 13-14m APY in the first two years and lacks major guarantees afterwards to keep his overall APY below 10m for his entire stay. We keep falling into those traps where we look at the salary cap for the current season, when what we should do is look at it over periods of time.

Now if someone comes with an offer that can't be refused the situation obviously changes. But I very much doubt that they will be proactive about trading him.

 

[IllegalContact]

Always grateful to receive your extraordinary wisdom and insight, IC.

And your grammatical pyrotechnics are spectacular, as always.

woof

 

[Off The Grid]

01 ~ I believe that we face roster peril far in excess of that which is generally perceived, by media and by fans. To wit: Many key players are at or are on the brink of reaching that inflection point between Rookie Contract and Max Contract that forces us ~ or Mad Bill, were he running the team ~ to face tough, grueling questions, given the constraints of The Infernal Salary Cap, about whether or not each key player is more valuable to the team and its championship quest ~ or not ~ than the 1, 2, or even 3 or 4 key Role Players that we might sign or retain instead.

12 ~ OK, that’s a total of just about $40,000,000 in Cap Space to play with. That doesn’t count any changes reconfiguring or extending Brady, Gronkowski, or anyone else might entail. Me, I detest the business of pushing Salary Cap hits down the road, so I wouldn’t do any such thing, but I’m just acknowledging those things…It also doesn’t include the dozen players, all at about $500,000 or so ~ so that’s about another $6,000,000, not including other guys who’re likely to get cut, later ~ that I’ll ignore, in the interest of accounting for Rookie Contracts.

The one thing I learned from over 15 years of BB running the show is to never be concerned with cap space unless totally unexpected things happen (e.g. Hernandez being on the books). The roster is build in such flexible ways that dont leverage the future that there are always ways to create space if an opportunity presents itself. Or in other words, I dont think cap space will ever the major driving factor for signing or not signing a player for the Patriots but only their internal evaluation of said player relative to market value. There is no better front office when it comes to salary cap management in this league.

Ahhh...How delightful to read a well-considered, thoughtful argument, quite in contrast with the raw sewage that certain posters routinely spew!!

If you don't mind, I'll carve out this one part of your response, as it's of particular interest to me, and circle back to other ones, afterwards ~ possibly tomorrow, as I'm planning on turning in early this morning, after a long night of bloodsucking!!

Let me give @manxman2601 a shout out, as well, as he may be interested in chipping in a comment or two...and perhaps others will add their perspectives?

Let me bring your quote back down here:

The one thing I learned from over 15 years of BB running the show is to never be concerned with cap space unless totally unexpected things happen (e.g. Hernandez being on the books). The roster is build in such flexible ways that dont leverage the future that there are always ways to create space if an opportunity presents itself. Or in other words, I dont think cap space will ever the major driving factor for signing or not signing a player for the Patriots but only their internal evaluation of said player relative to market value. There is no better front office when it comes to salary cap management in this league.

You make multiple strong points, here.

It looks like you misunderstood me on #12, the part you quoted, though, because you imply that I'm "worried" about Cap Space, when I was only clearing it out to spend it.

And I take a back seat to no man in my faith and trust in Mad Bill, even though I've emphatically disagreed with many of his moves, over the years.

Maybe we should be worried about it in a year, though, as I alluded to in part #1, up there...

Here's what elicited my concerns, about which I'd certainly like to hear your perspective: One year, hence, I foresee no less than 6 enormous raises coming due:

FB Brandin Cooks
SE Christopher Hogan
OG Shaq Mason
BT Malcom Brown
BT Danny Shelton
DE Trey Flowers

Flanker Back, Split End, Offensive Guard, Bear Tackle, Bear Tackle, Dragon End.

You can see where I'm going with this.

Between the six of'm, they count a pinch above $20,000,000 on our Cap, right now.

Next year, if we keep all 6? With Brown and Shelton looking at Year 5 Club Options, and the rest'f'm free to roam Free Agency, and with all 6 likely to be even better, this year, especially Hogan, we could easily be looking at $50,000,000 or $60,000,000.

And I agree with you: Mad Bill is amazing with the Cap, one result of which is that we're not looking at much at all in the way of Expiring Dead Money or Expirations of the Bloated Salaries of OverPaid Veterans to defray those upcoming costs with.

So that's my concern, you see.

Those Salaries are one year away from hitting us like a Pig In A Python.

That's chow!! That's chow!! That's chow de DOW!!

 

[Off The Grid]

My main issue is that you are replacing a couple of known quantities where none is a total bust (even Richards played well as personal protector on ST) with a set of unknown players where each could prove to be a negative, neutral or positive.

e.g. I loved Smelter during the draft but I dont see how anything he has shown so far in the league is better than what we have with e.g. Britt. Moves like that introduce volatility to a roster at a point where it really is not necessary.

I believe that many folks, and perhaps you, here, attribute too much faith in your "known quantities", as you call'm. Britt is a known quantity, yes, but of dubious quality, yes? He's a veteran who's caught 20 passes for us in 12 games, and has been mediocre for 9 years.

Give me young potential over proven mediocrity any day.

And I'm not "replacing" him with Smelter.

I'm cutting loose dead wood and bringing in Smelter, Bell, and whoever we draft to compete for the #5 spot behind Nelson, Edelman, Hogan, and Mitchell.

 

[Off The Grid]

In terms of Cooks, I agree that he is less than what many of us imagined when we signed him. But on some level this is our own fault because the signs that he is not someone who can go through the middle (or apparently even run a crossing route) were already there in NO. Him becoming a light version of Antonio Brown was a pipedream that many (including experts like Chatham) had but which will most probably never happen.

That being said the only reason I dont think he will be traded is because I just cant imagine BB & Caserio not thinking a few seasons ahead (like they usually do) when they traded the pick for him...

Now if someone comes with an offer that can't be refused the situation obviously changes. But I very much doubt that they will be proactive about trading him.

That doesn't apply here, though. I'm writing about what I would do. I'm not predicting what Mad Bill & Company might do. That doesn't sound any fun.

 

[BTTA]

I believe that we face roster peril far in excess of that which is generally perceived, by media and by fans. To wit: Many key players are at or are on the brink of reaching that inflection point between Rookie Contract and Max Contract that forces us ~ or Mad Bill, were he running the team

~ to face tough, grueling questions, given the constraints of The Infernal Salary Cap, about whether or not each key player is more valuable to the team and its championship quest ~ or not ~ than the 1, 2, or even 3 or 4 key Role Players that we might sign or retain instead.

Here's what elicited my concerns, about which I'd certainly like to hear your perspective: One year, hence, I foresee no less than 6 enormous raises coming due:
FB Brandin Cooks
SE Christopher Hogan
OG Shaq Mason
BT Malcom Brown
BT Danny Shelton
DE Trey Flowers
Flanker Back, Split End, Offensive Guard, Bear Tackle, Bear Tackle, Dragon End.
You can see where I'm going with this.
Between the six of'm, they count a pinch above $20,000,000 on our Cap, right now.
Next year, if we keep all 6? With Brown and Shelton looking at Year 5 Club Options, and the rest'f'm free to roam Free Agency, and with all 6 likely to be even better, this year, especially Hogan, we could easily be looking at $50,000,000 or $60,000,000.

And the context for this is more grim than in past years. Miguel has pointed out that in 2018 the Pats have more players than ever before @ both $10M or more cap hit and $8M or more cap hit, and the players with the 10-highest hits take up a greater % of the cap than ever before. So the roster is already trending top heavy compared to the past.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

I'll defer to your all too evident expertise on the latter matter, of course.

But I said no such thing. Time for some remedial English, big fella.

Ah the old “let’s resort to personal attacks when I don’t have a logical response to his answer”

I see your parents taught you good manners when you were growing up kid

 

[captain stone]

You lost me when you quoted An Officer and a Gentleman.

Other than that, well, you've given the team a lot of thought and that says a lot about your Patsfandom.

I love Ossifer And A Gentleman! Especially the early scenes of Mayo-naise as a kid in Olongapo City PI...my kinda town...until Mt Pinatubo happened of course.

 

[captain stone]

...You wanna trade a 24 year old pro bowl level WR whom we just gave up a first and third round pick just a year ago?

If somebody offered their 2018 2nd-rounder for him, hell yes.

 

[BTTA]

02 ~ That's tough ~ extremely tough. But it'd be a thousand times tougher if not for the persistently brazen generosity of Tom Brady. How much do you think he would've averaged, the last several years, had he taken his talent on the open market? Even now, going on 41. Were he a Free Agent, with a stated intention of playing for another 4 or 5 years, and exhibiting absolutely no sign whatsoever of slowing down, what do you think he'd get? 35 million? 40 million?

03 ~ Thank God for Tom Brady and his incalculable loyalty and generosity above and beyond his brilliance in realizing that the less he makes, the better his chances of winning it all.

I spent a portion of the day in conversations about start up company valuations, which I'm just getting back up to speed on. It got me to thinking about this idea of Brady being "generous" and that he's actually taking a lower salary simply out of competitive spirit. Hmm. Here's another interpretation, just for the sake of conversation.

Brady's future is in his company, TB12. His wife mastered this quite some time ago.

His playing in the NFL is his TB12 promotional platform; he gets to talk about it, and get commentators and analysts to talk about it, and as of this year players from other teams are converting and talking about it. Each year he plays is a testament to the value of what he's selling. In fact, each successive year is more valuable than the prior one by a significant factor, because each year of longevity is more remarkable than the prior one.

Every year that Brady plays allows him to continue to grow his company from his primary marketing platform. When he quits, he'll need to reinvent the marketing channels.

Let's call the 2018 regular season a value of 1.0 for his company. The playoffs are an even larger number (let's say 2.0) because of the national attention and constant mentioning of his age and training methods. A SB appearance is probably a 3.0, and a win a 3.5.

Through this thinking, Brady significantly increases the value of his company when appearing with the Pats through the playoffs. And he's milking a limited asset (his NFL career). Companies tend to be valued at 3-5 times revenue, or 6-10 times profit, depending on the industry and circumstances. I haven't done the math, but if the value of his company is seen in terms of decades of revenue and profit, and an eventual sale (everybody sells at some point), one could make the argument that Brady should play for the minimum in order to increase the likelihood of a Pats playoff appearance, and the longevity of the playoff appearance.

Just musing...

 

[jimnance]

Just a few thoughts that I've had about our current off season. Many'f'm'll be about moves that've already been made or could've been made, though some'f'm're about moves that might yet be.

I continue to bite off more than I can chew in the Work/School/Workout/Blog worlds, so I probably will fall short, yet again, of the goal of contributing to the Draft Forum, but for anyone who wants to comment on my draft-inclusive theoretical off season, that's where it'll be, though not until the eve of The Draft and, more likely, not until afterwards!! But in any case, I've gotten a lot more out'f this Site, via y'all contributing your thoughts, than I've given back, for quite a while, now, so I'm redoubling my efforts, as they say, to be less'f a lurker and more'f a contributor. Here's hoping this finds y'all well!!

What follows are some'f my thoughts on our prospective ReBoot Season. They are definitely subject to change and are not intended as a defined blueprint, just yet. And I’ll defer any Draft notions until later on, as my perspective on that beloved field of endeavor is still very transitional, except for the top QuarterBack Prospects. This is about Free Agency:


01 ~ I believe that we face roster peril far in excess of that which is generally perceived, by media and by fans. To wit: Many key players are at or are on the brink of reaching that inflection point between Rookie Contract and Max Contract that forces us ~ or Mad Bill, were he running the team

~ to face tough, grueling questions, given the constraints of The Infernal Salary Cap, about whether or not each key player is more valuable to the team and its championship quest ~ or not ~ than the 1, 2, or even 3 or 4 key Role Players that we might sign or retain instead.

02 ~ That's tough ~ extremely tough. But it'd be a thousand times tougher if not for the persistently brazen generosity of Tom Brady. How much do you think he would've averaged, the last several years, had he taken his talent on the open market? Even now, going on 41. Were he a Free Agent, with a stated intention of playing for another 4 or 5 years, and exhibiting absolutely no sign whatsoever of slowing down, what do you think he'd get? 35 million? 40 million?

03 ~ Thank God for Tom Brady and his incalculable loyalty and generosity above and beyond his brilliance in realizing that the less he makes, the better his chances of winning it all.


04 ~ According to OverTheCap, we were, when I started writing this and before we made any moves, about $21,000,000 under the Cap, this being on The Ides of March.


05 ~ So I’m looking at Free Agency and possibly Trades with a mind towards freeing up Cap Space, looking at how much Cap Capital we can amass…and then signing Players.


06 ~ My first addition to Cap Space is of course Brandin Cooks. I know that everybody loves that guy and that I’m going to get eviscerated for this, and I do not give a rat’s ass. I lauded Cooks in 2013, and he’s certainly top shelf talent…But I can’t stand’m. I’m a bit’f a braying jackass, myself, so I’ve got nothing against a fellow trying to build his brand, and I’ve got nothing a guy venting in public, per se, but Cooks publicly squawked about his role in New Orleans after a dominant victory, exposing himself, in my eyes, as a guy who doesn’t genuinely care about winning…and his pathetic play in the 2nd Quarter of the Super Bowl, when he easily had the crucial 1st Down, but gave it away to leap in the air like a putz, because he didn’t want to get clobbered when he cut it inside ~ and in so doing, cost us points that would’ve earned us our 6th Super Bowl Championship, for those scoring at home ~ confirmed my impression: He’s a Prima Donna who sells out when we need’m the most. I know that he talks a fine game and everyone loves’m, but I do not. I believe that he’s just been shining it up, to paraphrase Lou Gossett to Richard Gere in An Officer And A Gentleman, and I believe that, as with Randy Moss, his true character will eventually become clear to all. I’d trade’m to the highest bidder, and recoup that 8.4 Million to spend elsewhere. And I’d do so knowing that the market on Players of his skill are going for pretty much twice his 2018 salary. I don’t care. I don’t want this guy on my team, I know damned well he’s gone in a year if I’m running things, anyway ~ this is all an exercise in playing Fantasy General Manager, after all ~ so I’d rather get 2018 Draft Picks than a 2020 Draft Pick whose value is a 3.5 Round Pick at absolute maximum, while spending that 8.4 million on somebody who’ll hopefully think’f his teammates before himself.


07 ~ Cut or trade Kenny Britt. Good God, what a horrible move, picking up that guy. I cannot stand his work ethic. Cooks, at least, has a terrific work ethic. Britt has almost Randy Moss talent, but doesn’t seem to care. That’s $2,000,000 right of the books.


08 ~ Cut or trade Phillip Dorsett. Blech. Zoomer who can’t run routes. All set on that. That’s another $1,600,000 of the books, adding $12,000,000 from WideOuts. Sweet.


09 ~ Probably cut Dwayne Allen. I like the guy, and I’m not 100% sure of this move, because I love’m as a Blocker and I was stunned that he wasn’t more effective as a Receiver. And if he develops as a Receiver, he could become absolutely crucial to our success as a Hybrid who presents more’r less equally effective options in the Run or the Pass…But I’m provisionally gonna cut’m to free up that $5,000,000, as there’re only so many bucks to go around.


10 ~ Cut Jordan Richards. Just on general principles. In fact: cut’m, sign’m back, and cut’m again. ************. I take a back seat to no man in my fawning adoration of William Belichick, but the first thing that I’m gonna do when I’m Emperor of the Universe is to revoke Coach Belichick’s license to draft Defensive Backs in the 2nd Round. That’s $1,000,000.


11 ~ I like Eric Rowe just fine, but I don’t perceive him making the team. $1,000,000 more.


12 ~ OK, that’s a total of just about $40,000,000 in Cap Space to play with. That doesn’t count any changes reconfiguring or extending Brady, Gronkowski, or anyone else might entail. Me, I detest the business of pushing Salary Cap hits down the road, so I wouldn’t do any such thing, but I’m just acknowledging those things…It also doesn’t include the dozen players, all at about $500,000 or so ~ so that’s about another $6,000,000, not including other guys who’re likely to get cut, later ~ that I’ll ignore, in the interest of accounting for Rookie Contracts.

Otg- thanks for your post.
I don't agree with all of it,( tho probably most of it, I do), but it was a very enjoyable read.
Really like your literary style,dude.
I also am amazed at the effort. Partly because I never have the kind of time to post stuff like that, I greatly appreciate those who do- like yours, Ken's and a few others. One of the things that makes this such a great forum.

 

[Off The Grid]

Otg- thanks for your post.
I don't agree with all of it,( tho probably most of it, I do), but it was a very enjoyable read.
Really like your literary style,dude.
I also am amazed at the effort. Partly because I never have the kind of time to post stuff like that, I greatly appreciate those who do- like yours, Ken's and a few others. One of the things that makes this such a great forum.

I don't have the time, either, Bro, so I really shouldn't take the time...But if I didn't, then I'd be thinking about it all the time...so that's why I make the time.

And thanks, man...very much!!

 

[Off The Grid]

I spent a portion of the day in conversations about start up company valuations, which I'm just getting back up to speed on. It got me to thinking about this idea of Brady being "generous" and that he's actually taking a lower salary simply out of competitive spirit. Hmm. Here's another interpretation, just for the sake of conversation.

Brady's future is in his company, TB12. His wife mastered this quite some time ago.

His playing in the NFL is his TB12 promotional platform; he gets to talk about it, and get commentators and analysts to talk about it, and as of this year players from other teams are converting and talking about it. Each year he plays is a testament to the value of what he's selling. In fact, each successive year is more valuable than the prior one by a significant factor, because each year of longevity is more remarkable than the prior one.

Every year that Brady plays allows him to continue to grow his company from his primary marketing platform. When he quits, he'll need to reinvent the marketing channels.

Let's call the 2018 regular season a value of 1.0 for his company. The playoffs are an even larger number (let's say 2.0) because of the national attention and constant mentioning of his age and training methods. A SB appearance is probably a 3.0, and a win a 3.5.

Through this thinking, Brady significantly increases the value of his company when appearing with the Pats through the playoffs. And he's milking a limited asset (his NFL career). Companies tend to be valued at 3-5 times revenue, or 6-10 times profit, depending on the industry and circumstances. I haven't done the math, but if the value of his company is seen in terms of decades of revenue and profit, and an eventual sale (everybody sells at some point), one could make the argument that Brady should play for the minimum in order to increase the likelihood of a Pats playoff appearance, and the longevity of the playoff appearance.

Just musing...

Very interesting take, Brother...Makes a lot of sense...

Reinvesting that which would be his Salary if he demanded full Market Value into the Brand he's building? Potentially earning Profits far beyond the difference?

 

[Off The Grid]

Ah the old “let’s resort to personal attacks when I don’t have a logical response to his answer”

I see your parents taught you good manners when you were growing up kid

It wasn't a personal attack. It was just an observation about your tendency to spew idiotic lies and garbage. Develop some integrity and decency, and learn how to develop and express intelligent thoughts, and I promise you: results will improve.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

It wasn't a personal attack. It was just an observation about your tendency to spew idiotic lies and garbage. Develop some integrity and decency, and learn how to develop and express intelligent thoughts, and I promise you: results will improve.

Acting like you know me...what a putz. I bet I can guess what kind of spoiled childhood you grew up in and I could probably pinpoint the rich suburb

I can promise you your comments on cooks sound as idiotic as anything I’ve ever said.

FYI my job requires the highest level of integrity so I hope I have some of it!

 

[Off The Grid]

It wasn't a personal attack. It was just an observation about your tendency to spew idiotic lies and garbage. Develop some integrity and decency, and learn how to develop and express intelligent thoughts, and I promise you: results will improve.

Acting like you know me...what a putz. I bet I can guess what kind of spoiled childhood you grew up in and I could probably pinpoint the rich suburb

I can promise you your comments on cooks sound as idiotic as anything I’ve ever said.

FYI my job requires the highest level of integrity so I hope I have some of it!

Heh. Trying to dazzle some anonymous internet dude that you hate ~ moi ~ by reading your alleged resume to'm? You sure sound emotionally secure, dude.