Official Free Agency 2018

[maineman209]

Speaking of..



The APY numbers that are being thrown around now are just stupidly misleading. At this point they should report gAPY and APY but that would make everyone look bad. So instead lets report fake numbers everyone knows not to be true and celebrate all together as teams, agents and players.. yay

13.3m APY my ass..

Just the other day, the Ravens re-signed James Hurst (RT, LT, LG, TE with 32 starts over the past four seasons) to 4 years/$17.5M/$8M guaranteed. So that's probably Fleming's floor, now.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Love The Drake]

Some Vikings fans think Cousins may go to the Jets.

 

[maineman209]

Sorry for my lack of knowledge but APY stands for Average per year, right? That's exactly what that is. We don't know the gtd money, that's misleading for sure, but the info is right. Like Sherman got probably a one year deal if he's not that good anymore.

APY = Average Per Year
AAV = Average Annual Value

The terms are used interchangeably by the media idiots to refer to the maximum contract value that the player can realize if he plays every game and achieves all his incentives.

Even "guaranteed money" is obfuscated since media types never note whether it's fully-guaranteed, or merely guaranteed for injury.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Here's my estimate of the Pats 2018 cap space situation:

$21.2M (Miguel's current number)
-$2.7M DRAFT (estimate for 7 draftees + unknown number of UDFA)
-$6.0M Regular season emergency fund (minimum)
_______________________________________________
$12.5M USABLE CAP SPACE for 2018

Here are (IMO) most of the moves (some extreme) that the Pats have left for creating more 2018 cap space (and it may not be quite this much):

$1.9M release McClellin
$2.2M extend-restructure Allen, 2 years
$3.2M extend-restructure Gronk, 2 years
$4.0M restructure McCourty
$6.0M restructure Brady
$3.8M extend Cooks, 5 years
________________________________________________
$21.1M CAP SPACE ADDED
$33.6M USABLE CAP SPACE for 2018

+ $2.2M cutting Gillislee
... but then you're creating yet another hole/weakness at RB that would need to be backfilled at some undetermined cost. Proven guys like Murray/McKinnon will cost more; unproven rookies will cost less.

+ $2.8M cutting Allen instead of restructuring
... but then you're creating yet another hole/weakness in the blocking schemes, which could become even more critical if Solder is replaced with a "lesser" player, and if all of Lewis/Burkhead/Gillislee need to be replaced, especially with rookies. And then, there's also a replacement cost to consider. It wil almost certainly be $2M+, if you're going for a different veteran TE; it would certainly be less if you're going for an unproven rookie.
________________________________________________
Then, here are some very conservative estimates for the potential 2018 cap hits of re-signed, in-house UFAs:

$33.6M USABLE CAP SPACE

-$11.0M re-sign Solder, 2 years (his 2017 cap hit)
-$4.0M re-sign Fleming, 3 years
-$2.5M re-sign Burkhead, 3 years
-$1.5M re-sign M. Flowers, 3 years (ST level)
-$1.5M re-sign Ebner, 2 years (salary cut)
-$1.5M re-sign Slater, 1 year (salary cut)
_________________________________________________
- $22.0M in RE-SIGNINGS =

$11.6 USABLE CAP SPACE

Note that the above list does NOT include Lewis, Waddle, Bademosi OR AMENDOLA.

So, fans want a veteran CB, Safety, LB, pass-rushing DE? That $11.6 M is roughly what there is left to spend on all that.

Time to get creative and look for bargains like Shelton ($2M) instead of Suh ($7M+).

They also can extend Ryan Allen and Gost and easily create 3M at least.

$14.6 USABLE CAP SPACE

They don't need Waddle if they sign both Solder and Fleming.

Burkhead and Flowers will get more IMO.

They can easily replace Flowers. That are lots of OLB with ST value.
And they can double dip RB and get good value.

So:

$18.6 USABLE CAP SPACE

They easily can sign Bradham/Brown and Bashaud Breeland and another tier 2 FA if they want.

 

[maineman209]

Well there goes the pipe dream of Robinson to the Pats.
Ugh If Robinson is only signing for 14 mill a season no way Cooks gets more than that.

Robinson, 2014-2016:
... missed last 6 games as a rookie with a broken foot
... missed all but wk-1 of last season with a torn ACL
... 42 games active
... 201 catches .. 2831 yds .. 22 TDs .. 52.5% catch rate .. 14.1 ypc

3/13/18 - Robinson signs with CHI, 3 years/$42M ($14M apy)
EDIT: Now also being reported as $25M guaranteed (Rapoport).
.... coming off a torn ACL

Cooks, 2014-2016:
... missed last six games as a rookie with a broken thumb (no leg/ankle/foot injuries)
... has not missed a game since
... 42 games active
... 215 catches .. 2861 yds .. 20 TDs .. 68.3% catch rate .. 13.3 ypc

Cooks, 2017:
... 65 catches .. 1082 yds .. 7 TDs .. 57.0% catch rate .. 16.6 ypc

 

[maineman209]

They also can extend Ryan Allen and Gost and easily create 3M at least.

$14.6 USABLE CAP SPACE

They don't need Waddle if they sign both Solder and Fleming.

Burkhead and Flowers will get more IMO.

They can easily replace Flowers. That are lots of OLB with ST value.
And they can double dip RB and get good value.

So:

$18.6 USABLE CAP SPACE

They easily can sign Bradham/Brown and Bashaud Breeland and another tier 2 FA if they want.

And I thought I was being optimistic!

 

[maineman209]

Some Vikings fans think Cousins may go to the Jets.

Keenum is reportedly signing with the Broncos tomorrow.

 

[luuked]

Sorry for my lack of knowledge but APY stands for Average per year, right? That's exactly what that is. We don't know the gtd money, that's misleading for sure, but the info is right. Like Sherman got probably a one year deal if he's not that good anymore.

Yes but its entirely meaningless and is only used by the agents and teams to jerk each other off pretending to make this big deals when in reality not even half of this money will ever be seen.

 

[luuked]

Ugh If Robinson is only signing for 14 mill a season no way Cooks gets more than that.

Depends on timing and leverage..

 

[oceansizer]

 

[maineman209]

 

[luuked]

Curious about the numbers involved..

 

[oceansizer]

Kelce,Hill,Watkins,Hunt quite nice corp but we do not exactly know what Mahomes can do .

 

[luuked]

Kelce,Hill,Watkins,Hunt quite nice corp but we do not exactly know what Mahomes can do .

Kelce finally needs to get out of mental puberty and Watkins needs to stay healthy and start being consistent. Group with lots of upside but also potential to go nowhere..

 

[oceansizer]

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Yes but its entirely meaningless and is only used by the agents and teams to jerk each other off pretending to make this big deals when in reality not even half of this money will ever be seen.

It's 30 fully gtd. I get your point. They will never see all that money. But even 80% of that is absurd. Solder will get 15m+ We can't compete. If he stays is based on loyalty and his kid ...

 

[maineman209]

Depends on timing and leverage..

And, perhaps, on not tearing his ACL and being out for all of 2018, like Robinson was in 2017 (and still got $14M APY with $25M guaranteed).

While I understand that a lot of our fellow amateur talent scouts are convince that guys like Robinson and Watkins are "better" than Cooks, AFAIK, proven production, health and availability still count for something.

 

[oceansizer]

Watkins was inconsistent as hell and also had a quite good Hoff. Mahomes might be their franchise QB but this year in a comparison with Smith he must be a downgrade.

 

[Uptown]

And, perhaps, on not tearing his ACL and being out for all of 2018, like Robinson was in 2017 (and still got $14M APY with $25M guaranteed).

While I understand that a lot of our fellow amateur talent scouts are convince that guys like Robinson and Watkins are "better" than Cooks, AFAIK, proven production, health and availability still count for something.

Yep. Availability trumps ability ANY DAY! Especially on Sundays.