2018 RB prospect fumble rates

[maineman209]

Not sure this is "thread worthy", but I thought it would get lost as a post in the Prospect thread.

Anyway, from UPI (link):

2018 NFL Draft: Fumble rates for all running back prospects

Below are the career offensive fumble rates for the top running back prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft class, broken down into five categories:

ELITE (150 or better)

359.0 -- Darrel Williams, LSU

238.7 -- Demario Richard, Arizona State

207.7 -- Ronald Jones, USC

193.3 -- Saquon Barkley, Penn State

191.3 -- Kerryon Johnson, Auburn

181.7 -- Kyle Hicks, TCU

180.6 -- Justin Jackson, Northwestern

174.0 -- Josh Adams, Notre Dame

155.5 -- Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss

ABOVE AVERAGE (125-149)

142.1 -- Chase Edmonds, Fordham

135.0 -- Lavon Coleman, Washington

124.9 -- Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt

123.3 -- John Kelly, Tennessee

AVERAGE (100-124)

114.0 -- Royce Freeman, Oregon

110.0 -- Phillip Lindsay, Colorado

105.8 -- Rashaad Penny, San Diego State

100.6 -- Derrius Guice, LSU

BELOW AVERAGE (76-99)

98.6 -- Nick Chubb, Georgia

96.0 -- Bo Scarbrough, Alabama

90.0 -- Mark Walton, Miami (Fla.)

88.2 -- Ryan Nall, Oregon State

87.3 -- Ito Smith, Southern Miss

86.8 -- Nyheim Hines, NC State

76.3 -- Jordan Chunn, Troy

RED FLAG (75 or worse)

74.2 -- Roc Thomas, Jacksonville State

67.4 -- Akrum Wadley, Iowa

66.9 -- Jarvion Franklin, Western Michigan

66.5 -- Kalen Ballage, Arizona State

62.5 -- Justin Crawford, West Virginia

58.2 -- Kamryn Pettway, Auburn

55.6 -- Keith Ford, Texas A&M

54.6 -- Sony Michel, Georgia

39.5 -- Jeffery Wilson, North Texas

If you're keeping a spreadsheet of RB measurables and college production stats, this might be worth its own column.

 

[maineman209]

Perhaps worth noting that the Pats' first two reported RB prospect interviews at the Combine were Darrel Williams and Chase Edmunds.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Perhaps worth noting that the Pats' first two reported RB prospect interviews at the Combine were Darrel Williams and Chase Edmunds.

As I mentioned, Michel's fumble rate is the only thing holding me back from stamping him as the perfect Patriot player. If we could combine Williams and Edmunds into one back, we'd be all set! Both would be good fits here, although I think I prefer Edmunds by an edge.

 

[JerseyShore99]

I'm all for a Edmunds/Freeman double dip if not Michel and Freeman/Chubb/Scarborough double dip

Options 1 can be done on day 3 likely while option 2 would cost a day 1/2 pick and a Day3er

Edmunds and Freeman just seem like perfect Pats, also opening up the higher picks to be spent on LB/DL/TE

 

[maineman209]

I'm all for a Edmunds/Freeman double dip if not Michel and Freeman/Chubb/Scarborough double dip

Options 1 can be done on day 3 likely while option 2 would cost a day 1/2 pick and a Day3er

Edmunds and Freeman just seem like perfect Pats, also opening up the higher picks to be spent on LB/DL/TE

I'd guess most likely 4th round and later for any rookie RBs the Pats might take out of this draft. The odds of BB spending a 1st or 2nd are nearly non-existent. The APY for an RB prospect with zero NFL experience taken at #31 is about $2.42M - more than what Gillislee makes.

 

[JerseyShore99]

I'd guess most likely 4th round and later for any rookie RBs the Pats might take out of this draft. The odds of BB spending a 1st or 2nd are nearly non-existent. The APY for an RB prospect with zero NFL experience taken at #31 is about $2.42M - more than what Gillislee makes.

RB is the most replaceable position in football, especially in NE but BB did take Ridley and Vereen high not too long ago

Freeman and Edmonds both Day 3ers to me as well, maybe late Day 2 for Edmonds

 

[maineman209]

RB is the most replaceable position in football, especially in NE but BB did take Ridley and Vereen high not too long ago

Freeman and Edmonds both Day 3ers to me as well, maybe late Day 2 for Edmonds

Well, I guess 7 years isn't all that long ago.

I think he prefers RBs who've already shown something on tape at the NFL level and who are relatively affordable. This time last year, ~$4M for Gillislee and $3.2M for Burkhead was affordable, given the caps space at the time. This season, maybe not so much. The situation changes from year to year.

So, it maybe depends on how cheaply he can re-sign Burkhead (who has that ST value added to his receiving and rushing) - if at all, and maybe depends on who else is available, for how much, and what BB may see in them. There are at least a few possibilities out there that may be explored before the draft.

White, Gillislle and Bolden are NFL-experienced hands who are under contract. If he can't re-sign either of Lewis or Burkhead affordably, maybe he picks up Frank Gore at veteran minimum, then takes a flyer on a young prospect with the #95 pick, and then supplements that with a UDFA or two. Using the #63 pick on n RB prospect feels like a stretch to me. However, with the right prospect and the right situation already in place, it's possible, I suppose.

The other thing for me is that it seems like the success of the Pats ground game is more reliant on the excellent run-blocking of the OL and guys like Allen and Gronk than it is on any "elite" talent level possessed by the RB's themselves. As long as that blocking quality level is maintained, "average" RBs will probably continue to be able to get the job done, and a significantly better than average RB who might need to be drafted in the 2nd-round really doesn't add enough value.

 

[JerseyShore99]

Well, I guess 7 years isn't all that long ago.

I think he prefers RBs who've already shown something on tape at the NFL level and who are relatively affordable. This time last year, ~$4M for Gillislee and $3.2M for Burkhead was affordable, given the caps space at the time. This season, maybe not so much. The situation changes from year to year.

So, it maybe depends on how cheaply he can re-sign Burkhead (who has that ST value added to his receiving and rushing) - if at all, and maybe depends on who else is available, for how much, and what BB may see in them. There are at least a few possibilities out there that may be explored before the draft.

White, Gillislle and Bolden are NFL-experienced hands who are under contract. If he can't re-sign either of Lewis or Burkhead affordably, maybe he picks up Frank Gore at veteran minimum, then takes a flyer on a young prospect with the #95 pick, and then supplements that with a UDFA or two. Using the #63 pick on n RB prospect feels like a stretch to me. However, with the right prospect and the right situation already in place, it's possible, I suppose.

The other thing for me is that it seems like the success of the Pats ground game is more reliant on the excellent run-blocking of the OL and guys like Allen and Gronk than it is on any "elite" talent level possessed by the RB's themselves. As long as that blocking quality level is maintained, "average" RBs will probably continue to be able to get the job done, and a significantly better than average RB who might need to be drafted in the 2nd-round really doesn't add enough value.

7 years, wow, agree with you fully

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

My boy Martez Carter is no where on this list?

 

[maineman209]

7 years, wow, agree with you fully

I know, right?!

Anyway, when you think about it, the only RBs I can remember BB spending a draft pick on are Maroney (1st), Vereen (2nd), Ridley (3rd), White (4th).

The ones I had to look up:
JR Redmond, 2nd, 2000
Patrick Pass (FB), 7th, 2000
Antoine Womack, 7th, 2002 (never played in the NFL)
Spencer Nead (FB), 7th, 2003 (done after 10 games)
Cedric Cobbs, 4th, 2003 (done after 5 games)
MARONEY, 2004
Garrett Mills (FB/TE), 4th, 2004 (claimed on his way to the PS)
...
Justise Hairston, 6th, 2007 (never played in the NFL)
...
VEREEN/RIDLEY, 2011
...
WHITE, 2014 (the only drafted RB to have received a second contract with the Pats)

So, in BB's first five seasons with the Pats, he drafted 4 RBs & 3 FBs. In the 13 drafts since 2004, he's drafted just 4 RBs. All the rest of the recent Pats RBBC contributors - Bolden, BGE, Woodhead, Blount, Gray, etc. have either been acquired from other teams or were the Pats own UDFAs.

And, in spite of the lack of draft capital directly spent on the position, the Pats have almost always been in the top 1/3rd of the league (if not Top-10) in rushing yards and most often in the Top-6 in rushing TDs.

 

[JerseyShore99]

I know, right?!

Anyway, when you think about it, the only RBs I can remember BB spending a draft pick on are Maroney (1st), Vereen (2nd), Ridley (3rd), White (4th).

The ones I had to look up:
JR Redmond, 2nd, 2000
Patrick Pass (FB), 7th, 2000
Antoine Womack, 7th, 2002 (never played in the NFL)
Spencer Nead (FB), 7th, 2003 (done after 10 games)
Cedric Cobbs, 4th, 2003 (done after 5 games)
MARONEY, 2004
Garrett Mills (FB/TE), 4th, 2004 (claimed on his way to the PS)
...
Justise Hairston, 6th, 2007 (never played in the NFL)
...
VEREEN/RIDLEY, 2011
...
WHITE, 2014 (the only drafted RB to have received a second contract with the Pats)

So, in BB's first five seasons with the Pats, he drafted 4 RBs & 3 FBs. In the 13 drafts since 2004, he's drafted just 4 RBs. All the rest of the recent Pats RBBC contributors - Bolden, BGE, Woodhead, Blount, Gray, etc. have either been acquired from other teams or were the Pats own UDFAs.

And, in spite of the lack of draft capital directly spent on the position, the Pats have almost always been in the top 1/3rd of the league (if not Top-10) in rushing yards and most often in the Top-6 in rushing TDs.

Makes sense
RB is the most replaceable position nowadays and nobody understands value more than BB

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Makes sense
RB is the most replaceable position nowadays and nobody understands value more than BB

Which is why I think Josh Adams out of Notre Dame is a perfect 5th round pick, 6'2, 225, one cut runner known for good ball security. One of the few knocks is pass protection but he knows he has to work on it so that;s a plus. He's from my area and he's been a workhorse who gets the job done..

My binkie....#1

 

[captain stone]

I'm all for a Edmunds/Freeman double dip if not Michel and Freeman/Chubb/Scarborough double dip

Options 1 can be done on day 3 likely while option 2 would cost a day 1/2 pick and a Day3er

Edmunds and Freeman just seem like perfect Pats, also opening up the higher picks to be spent on LB/DL/TE

No need whatsoever now to double-dip at RB, or maybe even single-dip. But if I were looking at RB, I would wait until our 7th-rounder and see if Justin Jackson (and his 180.6/1 fumble rate) is still available.

 

[JerseyShore99]

No need whatsoever now to double-dip at RB, or maybe even single-dip. But if I were looking at RB, I would wait until our 7th-rounder and see if Justin Jackson (and his 180.6/1 fumble rate) is still available.

Agreed solid backfield with Burkhead, Hill, White

Keep an eye on the guy from Fordham late