Official Free Agency 2018

[maineman209]

Bastards

Meh. They'll probably overpay in terms of draft picks, and then he'll faceplant.

 

[Deus Irae]

There is no such thing a reaching.

Of course there is such a thing.

 

[mgteich]

Sounds good.

I AGREE that Richards had a 2nd round grade on our board.

How many times has Belichick traded down because he valued a player much higher than any else, and hoped to pick up his player with a lower draft pick.

For Richards to make sense, he would need to have been projected a likely highly productive player (certainly potential starter) AND the team must have believe that other team were likely to draft him in the next few picks.

Alternatively, the need was so great (as sometimes the case), that Richards needed to be drafted several rounds early because there was no other safety worth picking for the patriots after the place where Richards was picked. It is this alternative that was suggested at the time.

There is no such thing a reaching. You dont know any other teams board. This is all ******** bingo because of those non-sensical mock drafts by Kiper & co. If you have a high enough grade on a player and you think he might be gone by the next time you pick.. you take him. Especially given how we all know how legendary small the Patriot draft boards are (50-75 players).

Blame the evaluation process for all I care but not where a player was drafted. In case of Richards he was clearly evaluated with a grade of 2 which means potential starter. At this point its pretty obvious that they just cant nail the athletic profile for that SS/LB role and keep misevaluating players they try to draft for it. Doubt that this will make them stop trying though.

 

[DaBruinz]

Link to your post: Free agent targets

Yep. You're reading comprehension sucks.

Here is what YOU claimed I said:
"If you think Hightower was healthy and playing less than KVN I don't even know where to begin."

Here is what I ACTUALLY said:
"KVN saw 100% of the snaps in the 1st 4 games of the season when HT was healthy."

What I said does not equal what you claimed I said. The problem is your reading comprehension. Plain and simple. No where did I say that Hightower played less than KVN. But you keep insisting that I did.

might be time to hang up the mouse and keyboard buddy.

Why? Because you're inept and your reading comprehension is so atrocious you claim I said something I didn't?

 

[captain stone]

There is no such thing a reaching...

Sure there is; Bill does it all the time.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Burton and Pryor are two guys that would fit really well into our offensive scheme.

Not sure how bb sees them, but clearly they are upgrades for our roster.

 

[luuked]

Sounds good.

I AGREE that Richards had a 2nd round grade on our board.

There are no second round or first round grades on our board. This has been talked about so many times by previous Patriots and Browns employees and book writers. Let me get you that Lombardi quote from the Ringer:

When Bill joined the Browns in 1991, the two of us spent the better part of his first season designing our grading system. We wanted to define the prospect’s role on our team, and we wanted to predict how long it would take for him to achieve that role. That’s it. Instead of predicting rounds, our system forced our scouts to grade every player as (1) a starter, (2) a potential starter, (3) a developmental player, (4) a backup, or (5) someone who couldn’t make any NFL team. In Belichick’s room, no one was permitted to mention rounds — that job was for useless coffee-guzzling scouts and cliché-spouting TV commentators.

I guess you might have already read about a few times but I just wanted to add this here for everyone that doesnt. That is the thing that most casuals just dont understand about the draft process here in NE because this round-by-round thinking gets propagated from every other media source or person that talks about the draft. But if you want to make sense of BBs draft moves you have to completely ignore all of this and look at it from the perspective he and the staff are approaching the draft.

How many times has Belichick traded down because he valued a player much higher than any else, and hoped to pick up his player with a lower draft pick.

When it comes to moving in the draft lets not forget that the NE draft board is famously small. Caserio talked about it last March and said that it regularly contains 50-75 players only. So if you are at a point where your next interesting prospect is a few dozen picks away and you can increase the number of players you get by trading down then you do it.

For Richards to make sense, he would need to have been projected a likely highly productive player (certainly potential starter) AND the team must have believe that other team were likely to draft him in the next few picks.

Alternatively, the need was so great (as sometimes the case), that Richards needed to be drafted several rounds early because there was no other safety worth picking for the patriots after the place where Richards was picked. It is this alternative that was suggested at the time

Richards was definitely the highest rated player in that specific role for the team. And picking him might have been accelerated by other teams having a hole at that position and also observations from workout days in terms of interested scouts. Either way the core issue with his pick is not when it was made but how they misevaluated him in terms of role fit. People get hung up on the wrong aspect of drafting him because to them there were many more player available when in reality (because of the smaller draft board) the majority of those players were never in the considerations for the team anyway.

 

[luuked]

Of course there is such a thing.

If there is no concept of rounds for BB but only the famous five grades -- (1) a starter, (2) a potential starter, (3) a developmental player, (4) a backup, or (5) someone who couldn’t make any NFL team -- he wants from out scouting dept then there can be no reach.

 

[luuked]

To bring this back to the FA topic. Loyko brought up Kenny Vaccaro as a potential target and seems to think that Reiss agrees with that. Reiss has had a pretty good track record in the past few years..

 

[Deus Irae]

If there is no concept of rounds for BB but only the famous five grades -- (1) a starter, (2) a potential starter, (3) a developmental player, (4) a backup, or (5) someone who couldn’t make any NFL team -- he wants from out scouting dept then there can be no reach.

Nonsense. Every year, somebody thinks they've got a smart argument about reaches/steals/busts, and every year the argument is idiotic.

Your is no different. As a matter of fact, your own argument destroys the notion that there is no such thing as a reach.

 

[luuked]

Nonsense. Every year, somebody thinks they've got a smart argument about reaches/steals/busts, and every year the argument is idiotic.

Your is no different. As a matter of fact, your own argument destroys the notion that there is no such thing as a reach.

It is not my argument it is what has been written in books about BBs draft room and explicitly stated by Lombardi. Take it up with him..

 

[Deus Irae]

It is not my argument it is what has been written in books about BBs draft room and explicitly stated by Lombardi. Take it up with him..

Also, from BB himself, discussing what you're arguing but, of overwhelming importance to this discussion, putting it into greater context:

"It starts with value," Belichick said. "You value the players, however you put a grade on them. You value them, and then within that, there’s a draft strategy, maybe where you think that player is going to go in the draft, what the league thinks of him relative to what your individual team thinks of him, and need can sometimes factor into that, too, or maybe the compilation of your roster. I shouldn’t necessarily say need — a player that you see having a bigger impact on your team because of whatever the circumstances are on your team versus another one that may — for the same value for lack of a better word — duplicate something that you already have and maybe make it less valuable for your particular team at that particular point in time. When we value the players, we value them kind of on a generic basis: if we were starting a franchise, not who do we have playing here. So we’re not grading players based on what the quality of player we [currently] have is at a position, but in terms of: is this guy a starter in the league, is he an immediate starter in the league, is he a backup, is he a multi-position backup, is he a practice squad player, is he a player that will compete to make the practice squad, whatever it happens to be. Those values then become a little more refined when we actually get into where we are as a team — what the draft value is for that particular day or round, and how the draft is going sometimes."​

Bill Belichick Compares Value to Positional Need Heading Into Draft

As I told you, the Patriots drafting strategy kills the argument that there's no such thing as a reach.

 

[maineman209]

To bring this back to the FA topic. Loyko brought up Kenny Vaccaro as a potential target and seems to think that Reiss agrees with that. Reiss has had a pretty good track record in the past few years..

Listed at 6'0"/214. Apparently often played an LB-ish role as a strong safety for the Saints. Full time starter since his rookie season, usually playing 100% of the D-snaps in a game, though not much on ST. Hasn't missed a whole lot of time to injuries.
- Missed a game early in 2016 with an ankle issue. Then was suspended for the last four games of the season for Adderall.
- Missed a couple games with a groin pull in mid-season 2017, then was sent to IR in wk-16 with a wrist injury he suffered in practice (missed the playoffs).

Vaccaro just finished his 5th-year option season at $5.68M. He just turned 28 on New Year's Day.

Saints Aren't Planning To Re-Sign S Kenny Vaccaro | NFLTradeRumors.co

 

[luuked]

Listed at 6'0"/214. Apparently often played an LB-ish role as a strong safety for the Saints. Full time starter since his rookie season, usually playing 100% of the D-snaps in a game, though not much on ST. Hasn't missed a whole lot of time to injuries.
- Missed a game early in 2016 with an ankle issue. Then was suspended for the last four games of the season for Adderall.
- Missed a couple games with a groin pull in mid-season 2017, then was sent to IR in wk-16 with a wrist injury he suffered in practice (missed the playoffs).

Vaccaro just finished his 5th-year option season at $5.68M. He just turned 28 on New Year's Day.

Saints Aren't Planning To Re-Sign S Kenny Vaccaro | NFLTradeRumors.co

Like Loyko said with BB & co having a look on him during joint practices I think it would be a more conservative way to finally fill that SS/LB hybrid role because you already know how he looks on NFL level. But of course it comes at a higher price especially when there is already a nice chunk of change allocated to the secondary.

Curious if there are more ways to use him than that..

 

[luuked]

If someone already posted Howe's piece on Talib and Sherman both being receptive to move to Foxboro if stars would align I am sorry.

Patriots could have big-name options to add depth at cornerback

My issue with all of this is just wondering how the financial side of all of this would work out. As I mentioned in the Kenny Vaccaro post before: the secondary has a lot of money allocated to it already and looks like the strongest defensive unit in terms of talent.

 

[supafly]

Rumors growing stronger that ARZ will release Tyrann Mathieu. Didn’t allow a TD last year and plays both FS and SS.

Most likely out of our price range and it’s a position that we’re already deep at, but he’d still be a hell of a signing.

Cardinals could release Tyrann Mathieu, should be on the Steelers radar - USA TODAY Cardinals could release Tyrann Mathieu, should be on the Steelers radar — Steelers Wire

 

[maineman209]

Sounds good.

I AGREE that Richards had a 2nd round grade on our board.

How many times has Belichick traded down because he valued a player much higher than any else, and hoped to pick up his player with a lower draft pick.

For Richards to make sense, he would need to have been projected a likely highly productive player (certainly potential starter) AND the team must have believe that other team were likely to draft him in the next few picks.

Alternatively, the need was so great (as sometimes the case), that Richards needed to be drafted several rounds early because there was no other safety worth picking for the patriots after the place where Richards was picked. It is this alternative that was suggested at the time.

In real life (IOW, not in Kiper's fantasy world), having a high grade on a prospect - or at least a higher grade on that one guy than you have on the rest of the prospects at that position who are still on the board - plus the knowledge that other teams are also likely to have your prospect graded higher than the rest, pretty much determines when you have to take the guy.

With safeties, very few of the prospects who are still available after the 2nd round in most drafts ever amount to anything. Percentage-wise, your chances of hitting on even a halfway decent safety after round-2 are even lower then your chances of getting a halfway decent backup QB. Seriously.

But "need" also enters into it.

For example, Chung's rookie contract was expiring at the end of the 2012 season. In the spring of 2012, the Pats picked up Steve Gregory as a UFA from the Chargers, and then drafted Tavon Wilson in the 2nd-round of the 2012 draftat #48.

None of the safeties taken after Wilson in 2012 did squat. And the team that was drafting at #49? The Chargers, who had just lost Gregory. Anyway, Gregory and Wilson overlapped Chung for one season, and then Gregory replace him for 2013.

Meanwhile, the Pats drafted FS Duron Harmon in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft at #91 (an historically deep safety class, and deep for DBs generally).

Although he did become a very good special teamer, Wilson never developed into what the Pats had been looking for in a safety and was allowed to walk at the end of his rookie deal in 2015. In 2016, he immediately became the starting strong safety and leading tackler for the Lions. So, not a bad player, just a bad fit.

Then, in 2014, the Pats managed to get Chung back on a 2-year deal thru 2015, and they released Gregory.

At the end of that 2014 season, Chung signed a 3-year extension that put him under contract thru 2017. The 2015 season was also Wilson's last on his rookie deal, and the Pats drafted Richards with the final pick in round-2 of the 2015 draft (overlapped Wilson for a season, then replaced him).

The next team to draft, at #65 in 2015, was the Colts. At the time, they were down to two safeties on their roster - 34-year-old Mike Adams, and special teamer Colt Anderson. Anderson, BTW, was the poor bastard who took the snap and got destroyed by Brandon Bolden on Pagano's infamous fake-punt play (Anderson was out of the league within a year, and is probably still in therapy).

Anyway, the next safety taken in the 2015 draft after Richards was James Sample in the 4th round at #104 by JAX. He appeared in 4 games and then was gone.

Of the 11 safeties taken after Richards, five never played a snap in the NFL, and two others were out of the league after one season. Of the four who are still in the league, only one of those - FS Adrian Amos, CHI, 5th-round #142 (who's really good) - has ever become much more than a special-teamer. Pretty typical safety class in 2015.

So, in 2018, Chung is once again entering his contract season - but this time at age 31. Richards is also entering his contract year, and seems likely play it out as a special-teamer unless he's displaced on ST.

If the pattern holds, the Pats may sign a (relatively) low-level UFA safety and draft another (relatively) high, although there are other ways this could go (someone like Vaccaro signed at a surprisingly affordable price; one of Travis or Jones from the PS emerging, etc).

 

[luuked]

In real life (IOW, not in Kiper's fantasy world), having a high grade on a prospect - or at least a higher grade on that one guy than you have on the rest of the prospects at that position who are still on the board - plus the knowledge that other teams are also likely to have your prospect graded higher than the rest, pretty much determines when you have to take the guy.

With safeties, very few of the prospects who are still available after the 2nd round in most drafts ever amount to anything. Percentage-wise, your chances of hitting on even a halfway decent safety after round-2 are even lower then your chances of getting a halfway decent backup QB. Seriously.

But "need" also enters into it.

For example, Chung's rookie contract was expiring at the end of the 2012 season. In the spring of 2012, the Pats picked up Steve Gregory as a UFA from the Chargers, and then drafted Tavon Wilson in the 2nd-round of the 2012 draftat #48.

None of the safeties taken after Wilson in 2012 did squat. And the team that was drafting at #49? The Chargers, who had just lost Gregory. Anyway, Gregory and Wilson overlapped Chung for one season, and then Gregory replace him for 2013.

Meanwhile, the Pats drafted FS Duron Harmon in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft at #91 (an historically deep safety class, and deep for DBs generally).

Although he did become a very good special teamer, Wilson never developed into what the Pats had been looking for in a safety and was allowed to walk at the end of his rookie deal in 2015. In 2016, he immediately became the starting strong safety and leading tackler for the Lions. So, not a bad player, just a bad fit.

Then, in 2014, the Pats managed to get Chung back on a 2-year deal thru 2015, and they released Gregory.

At the end of that 2014 season, Chung signed a 3-year extension that put him under contract thru 2017. The 2015 season was also Wilson's last on his rookie deal, and the Pats drafted Richards with the final pick in round-2 of the 2015 draft (overlapped Wilson for a season, then replaced him).

The next team to draft, at #65 in 2015, was the Colts. At the time, they were down to two safeties on their roster - 34-year-old Mike Adams, and special teamer Colt Anderson. Anderson, BTW, was the poor bastard who took the snap and got destroyed by Brandon Bolden on Pagano's infamous fake-punt play (Anderson was out of the league within a year, and is probably still in therapy).

Anyway, the next safety taken in the 2015 draft after Richards was James Sample in the 4th round at #104 by JAX. He appeared in 4 games and then was gone.

Of the 11 safeties taken after Richards, five never played a snap in the NFL, and two others were out of the league after one season. Of the four who are still in the league, only one of those - FS Adrian Amos, CHI, 5th-round #142 (who's really good) - has ever become much more than a special-teamer. Pretty typical safety class in 2015.

So, in 2018, Chung is once again entering his contract season - but this time at age 31. Richards is also entering his contract year, and seems likely play it out as a special-teamer unless he's displaced on ST.

If the pattern holds, the Pats may sign a (relatively) low-level UFA safety and draft another (relatively) high, although there are other ways this could go (someone like Vaccaro signed at a surprisingly affordable price; one of Travis or Jones from the PS emerging, etc).

This pretty much should be a sticky post. Great job..

 

[maineman209]

If someone already posted Howe's piece on Talib and Sherman both being receptive to move to Foxboro if stars would align I am sorry.

Patriots could have big-name options to add depth at cornerback

My issue with all of this is just wondering how the financial side of all of this would work out. As I mentioned in the Kenny Vaccaro post before: the secondary has a lot of money allocated to it already and looks like the strongest defensive unit in terms of talent.

I think the concern there is for the future. Both McCourty and Chung turn 31 in 2018 Camp, and Chung is on the last year of his contract.

A relatively high-end UFA signing (if they can fit it under the cap) and a draft pick might be in order. If the Pats can't land/afford a high-end UFA safety, maybe a cheap (elderly) vet plus a (relatively) higher draft pick.

 

[maineman209]

Rumors growing stronger that ARZ will release Tyrann Mathieu. Didn’t allow a TD last year and plays both FS and SS.

Most likely out of our price range and it’s a position that we’re already deep at, but he’d still be a hell of a signing.

Cardinals could release Tyrann Mathieu, should be on the Steelers radar - USA TODAY Cardinals could release Tyrann Mathieu, should be on the Steelers radar — Steelers Wire

IIRC, he's also played some slot CB.

The issue has always been his size (5'9"/~190), but he's certainly proven that he can more than make up for it with his smart and attitude. Also, I think his injury history (which will come up) has been a little overblown. He lost the last couple games of 2015 (his career season) to a knee injury. Then he was dogged by a shoulder injury in 2016 that kept him out six games and ultimately sent him to IR. He played the full season in 2017, though, with very good production.

That contract, though! Holy Mother of Pearl!

His 2018 salary is a reasonable $5.75M, but ...

if Mathieu is on the Cards' roster as of March 15th, he gets that $5.75M fully-guaranteed, PLUS an additional $5M guaranteed for 2018, PLUS $8M of his $10.75M salary for 2019 becomes fully-guaranteed! If the Cards don't cut him before FA starts, they're on the hook for almost $19M guaranteed even if he never plays another down in the NFL anywhere.

AND, the "funny money" in the last two years of the deal (through 2021) would bring Mathieu yet another $23.6M.

Sounds like something Mike Tannenbaum would dream up (it was actually Steve Keim).