The Defensive Front 7 - Lots of Work, Lots Of Options

[Soliel]

81 yards given up on only 3 passes, and 11 snaps total. What a joke. As if the KC opener didn’t teach anyone anything.

Not only did he fail at covering, he failed miserably at tackling, which was supposed to be his strong point.

Watching that was not good. People who don’t know football wouldn’t be able to tell wtf was going on

 

[IllegalContact]

It would be great if either showed up, this year or next.

However, Belichick gives high draft picks a 2nd year to develop, and sometimes a 3rd, if they aha been injured. Of course, belichick can change his strategy at any time. We just analyze based on 17 yeas of data.

And 17 years of results......how many that are IRd the entire season as rookies become productive? A whole new group shows up the next year

 

[maineman209]

The two biggest differences between the 2016 Patriots front-7 (Super Bowl Champs) and the 2017 Patriots front-7 (Super Bowl Participants):
1. Alan Branch - showed up out of shape and never got into shape
2. Donta Hightower - injured reserve

Now, if Vincent Valentine hadn't been on IR as well and Malcom Brown didn't have a late season ankle injury we might have been able to replace the interior pocket pusher and run stuffer. Our defense needs a guy who can hold his ground in the interior. We didn't have that this year.

Hightower is a premier player at the 2nd level and we tried to patch together a group of LBs with defined roles to cover up for his absence, and it worked OK most of the year all the way to the Super Bowl.

I would draft a DT somewhere Day 1 or Day 2, not sure if you go classic 3-4 NT or if you look for a little more athleticism which seems trendy in the NFL as everyone looks for the next Aaron Donald. For his size, Vince Wilfork had athleticism, that is the type of player they need again. Not just a big guy. A big guy who is "athletic for his size".

Big guys who are "athletic for their size" are always in high demand. Athletic big guys who can actually play are typically long gone off the board before the Pats get to pick (the Pats were kinda lucky to get Wilfork as late as #21). The Pats take what they can get, and that hasn't been much in terms of college prospects (hence, the Branch reclamation project that now seems to have run its course).

Among the reasons that the Pats transitioned their scheme from the 3-4 to the current hybrid is that guys like Wilfork are required to make that base work well, but they're tremendously hard to come by.

BTW, something that Wilfork has never gotten credit for is how successful he was at adapting to the new scheme in mid career.

Meanwhile, Malcom Brown doesn't seem to get enough credit for how well he has developed at the ripe old age of 24 (his 24th birthday was 3 days before the SB).

 

[maineman209]

And 17 years of results......how many that are IRd the entire season as rookies become productive? A whole new group shows up the next year

I think that's likely a pretty small sample size.

 

[IllegalContact]

I think that's likely a pretty small sample size.

Just as with everything else with you, I guess the best answer is no answer at all

 

[maineman209]

Just as with everything else with you, I guess the best answer is no answer at all

Hey, you asked the question, "And 17 years of results......how many that are IRd the entire season as rookies become productive?"

Rhetorical or not, if you're really interested in knowing, do the research. Or would you prefer that we all simply accept your hypothesis as fact?

 

[IllegalContact]

Hey, you asked the question, "And 17 years of results......how many that are IRd the entire season as rookies become productive?"

Rhetorical or not, if you're really interested in knowing, do the research. Or would you prefer that we all simply accept your hypothesis as fact?

It was rhetorical ... but you knew that

My previous point stands

 

[captain stone]

I disagree. Imo, if they had the 2016 version of Branch this defense would have looked a lot better. Yes one guy who could command double teams up the middle would have had a trickle down effect.

The prototypical Patriots base is the 3-4. But we saw a lot of the 4-3 or 4-2 or the "Star"....blahhh..because they didn't have the stud NT to effectively run the 3-4. (Can Wilfork eat some avocados or something?)

Get that NT stud and Brown, Guy, VV etc.... become great complimentary players. And yes Brown is a good player.

Get that NT and Hightower, KVN, Flowers, Wise, Harrison and Rivers (depending on down and distance) now have an easier path to the QB or more importantly can control the line of scrimmage on running downs and collapse the pocket on passing downs.

By the way, I'm excited to see what the Pats 3-4 might look like next season..

Brown - NT stud - VV

Rivers - Hightower - KVN - Flowers

That's a 3-4 with speed, experience and power.

Damn. Please find that stud BB. Please.

I'm almost tempted to advocate for Poe. Not sure if he's technically sound or not but that is one strong powerful dude. Unfortunately he'll be too expensive.

Poe will indeed likely be too expensive, so that's why I'll be following VA Tech's Tim Settle during the draft process. He might be available as late as #63, but if he really impresses during the combine, then he might have to be taken by #43.

 

[Uptown]

3 free agent fixes for Patriots pass rush problem

 

[mgteich]

LB
OK, so the difference was Hightower and the DT position. Hightower will be back.
Like 2016, we will have Hightower and Van Noy.
We will also have Rivers, Harris, Mcclellan, Roberts, Grimsby and likely Harrison.
We'll add a player or two for camp. But this isn't a terrible start.

At DE we start with Flowers and Wise. We also have A Butler and Lee.

DT
If Valentine and Brown are healthy, we start with Valentine, Brown and Guy (plus s couple, likely including Francois. This is a strong improved meant over 2017. Sure. I'd love to see a young stud at NT to anchor the line. These players are hard to find.

The two biggest differences between the 2016 Patriots front-7 (Super Bowl Champs) and the 2017 Patriots front-7 (Super Bowl Participants):
1. Alan Branch - showed up out of shape and never got into shape
2. Donta Hightower - injured reserve

Now, if Vincent Valentine hadn't been on IR as well and Malcom Brown didn't have a late season ankle injury we might have been able to replace the interior pocket pusher and run stuffer. Our defense needs a guy who can hold his ground in the interior. We didn't have that this year.

Hightower is a premier player at the 2nd level and we tried to patch together a group of LBs with defined roles to cover up for his absence, and it worked OK most of the year all the way to the Super Bowl.

I would draft a DT somewhere Day 1 or Day 2, not sure if you go classic 3-4 NT or if you look for a little more athleticism which seems trendy in the NFL as everyone looks for the next Aaron Donald. For his size, Vince Wilfork had athleticism, that is the type of player they need again. Not just a big guy. A big guy who is "athletic for his size".

 

[mgteich]

I think that's likely a pretty small sample size.

I don't think so. Lot of rookies are injured and miss much of camp and all of their rookie season.
Flowers played the whole pre-season and one game. Watson was a first rounder who is still in the league.

IMHO, help in the defensive front seven is much more likely to come from the new new set of draftees and UDFAs than from those who have been injured and taken a year off from competitive football, starting with no NFL experience.

 

[captain stone]

...We will also have Rivers, Harris, Mcclellan, Roberts, Grigsby and likely Harrison...

I hope we also re-sign Marquis Flowers if the Price is Right.

But I really REALLY hope that neither McClellin nor Roberts are returning.

 

[Love The Drake]

I hope we also re-sign Marquis Flowers if the Price is Right.

But I really REALLY hope that neither McClellin nor Roberts are returning.

We need new blood at linebacker.
The fire Marquis has and how he took it on his own shoulders and defended the coaching staff and how he fired back at reporters and critics.
Is the kind of attitude this team needs.
I'm done with choir boys on D.
Gilmore has the same fire Harmon has that fire Mccourty is a leader Van noy and
Flowers I don't want to see our defense Help guys up tap then on their shoulders after a play.
I want teams to fear the D.

 

[supafly]

We need new blood at linebacker.
The fire Marquis has and how he took it on his own shoulders and defended the coaching staff and how he fired back at reporters and critics.
Is the kind of attitude this team needs.
I'm done with choir boys on D.
Gilmore has the same fire Harmon has that fire Mccourty is a leader Van noy and
Flowers I don't want to see our defense Help guys up tap then on their shoulders after a play.
I want teams to fear the D.

Well that, and the fact that MFlowers appeared to show talent that was progressing as he became more comfortable in the system. He has some speed and ST ability, and we’ve certainly used that LB4-5 spot on much worse prospects in the past.

I’d like to see what another year could do.

 

[patsfaninpa]

And 17 years of results......how many that are IRd the entire season as rookies become productive? A whole new group shows up the next year

I believe Trey Flowers missed his rookie year. Statistically, more likely to bust. There are exceptions

 

[AzorianPats]

The two biggest differences between the 2016 Patriots front-7 (Super Bowl Champs) and the 2017 Patriots front-7 (Super Bowl Participants):
1. Alan Branch - showed up out of shape and never got into shape
2. Donta Hightower - injured reserve

Now, if Vincent Valentine hadn't been on IR as well and Malcom Brown didn't have a late season ankle injury we might have been able to replace the interior pocket pusher and run stuffer. Our defense needs a guy who can hold his ground in the interior. We didn't have that this year.

Hightower is a premier player at the 2nd level and we tried to patch together a group of LBs with defined roles to cover up for his absence, and it worked OK most of the year all the way to the Super Bowl.

I would draft a DT somewhere Day 1 or Day 2, not sure if you go classic 3-4 NT or if you look for a little more athleticism which seems trendy in the NFL as everyone looks for the next Aaron Donald. For his size, Vince Wilfork had athleticism, that is the type of player they need again. Not just a big guy. A big guy who is "athletic for his size".

The two biggest differences between the 2016 Patriots front-7 (Super Bowl Champs) and the 2017 Patriots front-7 (Super Bowl Participants):
1. Alan Branch - showed up out of shape and never got into shape
2. Donta Hightower - injured reserve

Now, if Vincent Valentine hadn't been on IR as well and Malcom Brown didn't have a late season ankle injury we might have been able to replace the interior pocket pusher and run stuffer. Our defense needs a guy who can hold his ground in the interior. We didn't have that this year.

Hightower is a premier player at the 2nd level and we tried to patch together a group of LBs with defined roles to cover up for his absence, and it worked OK most of the year all the way to the Super Bowl.

I would draft a DT somewhere Day 1 or Day 2, not sure if you go classic 3-4 NT or if you look for a little more athleticism which seems trendy in the NFL as everyone looks for the next Aaron Donald. For his size, Vince Wilfork had athleticism, that is the type of player they need again. Not just a big guy. A big guy who is "athletic for his size".

Couple of reasons why the defense took a step or 2 back this season.

1. Alan Branch falling off the face of the earth.

That 2 gap, block eating nose tackle is extremely important in our defense. Branch was a monster for us in 2015-2016, but he got paid and fat, and fell off. We did not have a replacement for him. Brown and Guy did ok, and Jean Francois did adequate, but he's a journeyman player. Valentine was also on IR. I agree with DT being a high need.

2. Losing our most reliable Linebacker to retirement.

The team never replaced Rob Ninkovich last year. They tried with Casius Marsh, Eric Lee and at the end James Harrison. Never really happened. Say what you want about Ninko, but he was always was at the right place at the right time and knew his assignments. Plus when we needed a play he'd make it. Never recovered from that. All that said I'm intrigued with what we can possibly get from a Derek Rivers.

3. Hightower injury. Lack of depth/athleticism at LB

Hightower our best player in the front 7 and also the signal caller. When you lose that for the season, it's hard to recover. We never did. Not dogging Van Noy, who's ok, but Roberts and a old Harris gave us nothing. Harris is done, and Roberts can't cover. Not to mention his specialty is supposed to be stopping the run, but even that he leaves alot to be desired. Marquise Flowers looked ok, but I wouldn't mind seeing an upgrade or 2 at the position. Need to get faster, need to get better.

I don't think the front 7 needs to be rebuilt but reloaded. We got some nice pieces. I like the combo of Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise Jr a lot. Malcolm Brown and Lawrence Guy are good players in the middle. And Adam Butler to me looks like what we thought we had when we drafted Dominick Easley.

 

[maineman209]

I don't think so. Lot of rookies are injured and miss much of camp and all of their rookie season.
Flowers played the whole pre-season and one game. Watson was a first rounder who is still in the league.

IMHO, help in the defensive front seven is much more likely to come from the new new set of draftees and UDFAs than from those who have been injured and taken a year off from competitive football, starting with no NFL experience.

It seems to me that there's a significant difference between a guy like Keionta Davis - who hasn't played so much as a practice snap since the 2017 Combine - and Rivers, who made it through OTAs and 3 weeks of Camp (while showing development on the field).

I can recall several UDFA and late-round picks that never came back after an early rookie-season injury (not that they would've made the team in the first place), but I really don't believe that a list of the prospects the Pats have taken in the first 3-4 rounds of the draft who have missed their rookie seasons (including off-season work) to injury is very long at all.

It just seems to me like another "common wisdom" thing that no one has really bothered to research to see if it's actually true.

 

[maineman209]

I believe Trey Flowers missed his rookie year. Statistically, more likely to bust. There are exceptions

Flowers did make it through Camp an appeared in one game, so he had some developmental experience under his belt. Rivers fell only three weeks short of that mark, really. OTOH, Dowling made it through Camp and a couple of games - but then he missed his second season, too, IIRC and was almost constantly injured. Is he, then included in a statistical analysis?

And then, how many of the 5th, 6th, 7th rounders and UDFAs to we include in our sample? Are we assuming that, had they been healthy, they would've made the team (or any team)?

 

[AzorianPats]

Flowers did make it through Camp an appeared in one game, so he had some developmental experience under his belt. Rivers fell only three weeks short of that mark, really. OTOH, Dowling made it through Camp and a couple of games - but then he missed his second season, too, IIRC and was almost constantly injured. Is he, then included in a statistical analysis?

And then, how many of the 5th, 6th, 7th rounders and UDFAs to we include in our sample? Are we assuming that, had they been healthy, they would've made the team (or any team)?

Trey Flowers, Marcus Cannon, Shane Vereen? I believe missed their rookie seasons (not sure on Vereen)

 

[mgteich]

Trey Flowers, Marcus Cannon, Shane Vereen? I believe missed their rookie seasons (not sure on Vereen)

Flowers had a full camp and preseason (with the #1's) and was injured in Game One. On defense, he is the closest example.

Watson was a similar case on offense.

Cannon was a very special case. Cannon was NOT injured. His illness was known. Scar was willing to wait to develop him. BTW, Cannon did NOT miss his rookie year. He was activated in Game 11.

Vereen played five games.
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We've been through this before. We have a long time. I guess we can re-live the stories of all that failed.

There were so many others that Belichick tried to bring back again and again (Crable comes to mind).