Some speculation/tidbits about Gronkowski's status

[supafly]

The odds are at -150 to play and +120 to sit. The “true odds” would meet in the middle at -135 to play and + 135 to sit. The reason they do not align is so Vegas can make a profit.

At -135, the percentage odds are actually at 57.5% (a little less than 60%) that Gronkowski will play. Even if you used the -150 number, that would be exactly 60%. So, somewhere between 57.5 and 60% in Vegas.

Just put in -150 odds for the probability in percentage form, likelihood of it happening.

Odds Calculator

I say that is pessimistic because, though it is slightly more likely than not he is cleared, that number is not much better than a coin flip and probably much lower than the great majority of people would assume. Chao’s article cited that 90% of players return from a concussion within two weeks, and there are probably players who choose on the side of caution if their team is out of contention. I would think Gronkowski’s chances of playing would be much greater than that particular prop bet line from a sports book. So, in context I think those odds are pessimistic, though there is probably a better way to describe it, like “less optimistic.”

Thanks for the clarity and for such a thorough explanation, although I’ve got to admit that (right or wrong) I still have doubts as to their method in terms of win probability. I’d be interested in hearing the opinions of some other degenerate gamblers besides myself.

I mean, one can argue that it’s right there in black and white, but even when you plug -195 into the calculator it still only raises the win probability to 66.6%. It just seems a little off to me. I could be wrong.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Thanks for the clarity and for such a thorough explanation, although I’ve got to admit that (right or wrong) I still have doubts as to their method in terms of win probability. I’d be interested in hearing the opinions of some other degenerate gamblers besides myself.

I mean, one can argue that it’s right there in black and white, but even when you plug -195 into the calculator it still only raises the win probability to 66.6%. It just seems a little off to me. I could be wrong.

Let’s say it’s an even -200. You need to risk $200 to get $300 (your original 200 plus the 100 for winning.) Assuming odds are exact (without the book’s profit), you should win that bet 2 out of 3 times (67% probability.). Or you may say you would win that bet 200 out of 300 times and break even. If it’s -300, 75% probability. -400, 80% probability. Almost counterintuitive when using American odds format.

Fractional odds formats are easier to calculate and immediately understand. If we said Gronk has 3/2 odds of playing (same as -150), that would be like saying I have 5 cards in my hand, with 3 cards that are marked “Gronk plays” and 2 cards that are marked “Gronk sits.” The winning card will be drawn after you place your bet. Now the 60% makes more sense. If you have 2/1 odds (same as -200), there are three cards in my hand. 2 say Patriots, and 1 says Eagles (and that is roughly the SB odds.). 67% chance you will win if you pick the Patriots.

 

[Soliel]

Let’s say it’s an even -200. You need to risk $200 to get $300 (your original 200 plus the 100 for winning.) Assuming odds are exact (without the book’s profit), you should win that bet 2 out of 3 times (67% probability.). Or you may say you would win that bet 200 out of 300 times and break even. If it’s -300, 75% probability. -400, 80% probability. Almost counterintuitive when using American odds format.

Fractional odds formats are easier to calculate and immediately understand. If we said Gronk has 3/2 odds of playing (same as -150), that would be like saying I have 5 cards in my hand, with 3 cards that are marked “Gronk plays” and 2 cards that are marked “Gronk sits.” The winning card will be drawn after you place your bet. Now the 60% makes more sense. If you have 2/1 odds (same as -200), there are three cards in my hand. 2 say Patriots, and 1 says Eagles (and that is roughly the SB odds.). 67% chance you will win if you pick the Patriots.

I like the math on this stuff. The fools buying the tickets in Vegas for the eagles are playing a sucker bet.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Word up is that right after the game health guru Alex G wrapped an extra large kielbasa around Gronk's head, an ancient folk remedy.

 

[Clonamery]

Word up is that right after the game health guru Alex G wrapped an extra large kielbasa around Gronk's head, an ancient folk remedy.

Why would he wrap an extra large kielbasa around an extra large kielbasa?

 

[Double TE]

WEEI says he will likely be OK and will practice on Thurs.

 

[mcmurtry86]

WEEI says he will likely be OK and will practice on Thurs.

Well an unsourced report from WEEI sure seems official.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I believe Gronk will play but I also believe the Eagles will head shot him to try and knock him out of the game.

 

[WeezyFbaby]

I think there is a “chance” we are without Gronk possibly

This again, my god youre tireless

 

[neuronet]

Why would he wrap an extra large kielbasa around an extra large kielbasa?

The only way to save a kielbasa is with another kielbasa.

 

[RobertWeathers]

BB had an epic exchange with the press today.

Bill Belichick has awkward exchange with reporter over Rob Gronkowski's status for Super Bowl LII

RYAN HANNABLE
JANUARY 24, 2018 - 10:09 AM
FOXBORO -- Super Bowl LII is 11 days away and Rob Gronkowski's status is one of the biggest topics surrounding the game.

The tight end left the AFC championship game with a head injury and was ruled out during the second half. It would appear Gronkowski is in the concussion protocol, although the team has not made this official.

At Wednesday's press conference, a reporter asked Bill Belichick about Gronkowski's status for the game and resulted in a pretty good back and forth, which was awkward at times.

Reporter: "Can you give us an update on Rob Gronkowski — has he finished his concussion protocol, and do you expect him to play?"
BB: “Yeah, we will be compliant with the NFL injury report and when that is required we’ll put it on there.”

R: "When is that process completely finished?"
BB: “When is what process is finished?”

R: "The concussion report, the…"
BB: “Whatever the situation is, whatever his status is, we’ll put it on the injury report. We’ll make sure you’re the first one to get it.”

R: "I’m sure you will. Do you expect him to play?"
BB: "We’ll put it right on the injury report and that is what we’re going to do.”

R: "OK."
BB: "Just like everyone else does. Make sure he’s first on the list too, Stacey [James].”

R: "Thank you. I appreciate it."
BB: “We don’t want to hold anyone back here. Get that out there.”

R: "I know you don’t.”
BB: “That’s all we can do.”

 

[PatsFanSince74]

...

I wonder if the guy will have some fun with the press on this one. Pretend to forget what the conversation is about, people's names, things like that. Wouldn't be surprised.

Yeah, that's a sure fire winning strategy...make fun of people with brain damage in the current environment. Yep. That'll work.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Dumb question, is the team subject to any legal issues if they play Gronk anyways? Like say he's still feeling dizzy next week, would they get in trouble if he goes out and plays?

He's in the "concussion protocol." He can't play until he clears it, which includes being tested by an independent neurologist.

Question for you. Why would anyone, who cares about Gronk, want him to play if "he's still feeling dizzy?"

And, BTW, after seeing one of my kid's through a serious concussion, there's a lot more to the aftermath of a concussion than dizziness. It mainly involves how the brain processes information and reacts to stimuli, which is why they have all those memory and visual acuity tests. In addition, it's possible to be apparently asymptomatic several days after a concussion and then regress because of a particular stimulus.

For example, my kid was cleared to return to school after three days as long as he sat towards the back of the room and not near the white board where material was projected. The doctor forgot, however, to tell him not to look into a microscope. So, when he looked through the microscope lens at the brightly illuminated slide, he immediately got disoriented, dizzy and nauseous with a wicked headache and had to lie down on the floor, where he was falling anyway before his lab companion caught him.

So, concussions are unpredictable and can disable even a healthy teenager for, in his case, up to two weeks.

 

[Soliel]

I believe Gronk will play but I also believe the Eagles will head shot him to try and knock him out of the game.

Wow. I hope not but yea philly is a dirty team

 

[50-yard-line]

Word up is that right after the game health guru Alex G wrapped an extra large kielbasa around Gronk's head, an ancient folk remedy.

Wrapping an extra-large kielbasa around Gronk's head would be considered a sex act, as in "mating."

 

[Gwedd]

Wrapping an extra-large kielbasa around Gronk's head would be considered a sex act, as in "mating."

Or a sausage fest.......

 

[Gwedd]

He's in the "concussion protocol." He can't play until he clears it, which includes being tested by an independent neurologist.

Question for you. Why would anyone, who cares about Gronk, want him to play if "he's still feeling dizzy?"

And, BTW, after seeing one of my kid's through a serious concussion, there's a lot more to the aftermath of a concussion than dizziness. It mainly involves how the brain processes information and reacts to stimuli, which is why they have all those memory and visual acuity tests. In addition, it's possible to be apparently asymptomatic several days after a concussion and then regress because of a particular stimulus.

For example, my kid was cleared to return to school after three days as long as he sat towards the back of the room and not near the white board where material was projected. The doctor forgot, however, to tell him not to look into a microscope. So, when he looked through the microscope lens at the brightly illuminated slide, he immediately got disoriented, dizzy and nauseous with a wicked headache and had to lie down on the floor, where he was falling anyway before his lab companion caught him.

So, concussions are unpredictable and can disable even a healthy teenager for, in his case, up to two weeks.

I had a "mild" concussion (along with other injuries) from a helo accident while in the Navy. Took me awhile to recover from that.

My son had a serious concussion in Afghanistan when his MRAP was struck by an IED and rolled a couple times. He spent a couple months in Landstuhl Military Hospital in Germany before being cleared to return to his unit. To this day he still has some short-term memory issues.

Each one is different and everyone responds differently to them.

 

[mosslost]

This again, my god youre tireless

"well that's what I heard"

 

[neuronet]

OK guys enough let's have some stories like "I had a severe concussion and was able to do brain surgery the next day because things were just fine and it wasn't a big deal."

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

OK guys enough let's have some stories like "I had a severe concussion and was able to do brain surgery the next day because things were just fine and it wasn't a big deal."

I was concussed so badly that I lost most sensations (hearing, feeling, and seeing) although I could still taste. I was told by the doctor (via tastes that I translated into words) that if I rested for a few days, I would be 100% in no time. However, I'm glad to say that I opted to play in the YMCA quarterfinal playoff game the next day. Due to my contributions (I think, though I couldn't actually register anything), we won the game. I am now typing this though a state-of-the-art translation system whereby I use reactions to food items to create letters. All in all, though, I think (but can't be sure) that the glory was worth it.