NFL Week 4 Early (9/19) Advanced Betting Lines: Patriots 3 point favorites vs Carolina

[PatsFans.com Article]

NFL Week 4 Early Advanced 'Look-Ahead' Betting Lines: Patriots 3 point favorites vs Carolina

John Morgan

The New England Patriots are listed as 3-point favorites over Carolina. Typically odds makers add three points for home field advantage. Taking that into consideration, that means the handicappers look at the Panthers and Pats as equals on a neutral field. Despite Carolina’s impressive defense I find that to be a slight surprise.

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[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This is incorrect. The odds must be listed incorrectly. Carolina cannot be a 3 point underdog. Vegas uses a power number for each team and doesn’t base the spread on matchups...they use the power number only.

New England was a 7 point favorite at New Orleans (on a neutral field Patriots are 10 points better than the Saints.)

Carolina is a 6 point favorite at home against New Orleans (on a neutral field, Panthers are 3 points better than the Saints.)

Hence, the Patriots are 7 points better than the Panthers on a neutral field. At Gillette, they would be a 10-11 point favorite.

 

[jmt57]

This is incorrect.

I agree that it doesn't make sense, but that is what the Westgate listed as their early odds.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I agree that it doesn't make sense, but that is what the Westgate listed as their early odds.

Spread is 8.5. Westgate was wrong.

 

[King Air Pilot]

A lot of the early week 4 spreads looks looney.

 

[TBR]

Spread is currently -8 on my betting website.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

NFL Latest Line: NFL lines. Weekly NFL line. Pro football betting lines.

Everyone should have this site bookmarked, most accurate/quickly updated site around.

 

[XLIX]

I don't know where the -3 number came from because my online book, which is known for putting out the earliest lines, has it at 8.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Defense aside I feel pretty confident on this one. I think we have too much offense for them to stay with us

 

[jmt57]

Spread is 8.5. Westgate was wrong.

Those were the 'early' 'advanced' lines. Published twelve days before the game.

Odds change during game week too. Obviously that's going to be even more so an extra week in advance.

It's not a prediction of what the odds will be, so it's not a case of being wrong. That would be like saying the odds on the Ravens-Jaguars game was wrong.

 

[jmt57]

A lot of the early week 4 spreads looks looney.

Spread is currently -8 on my betting website.

I don't know where the -3 number came from because my online book, which is known for putting out the earliest lines, has it at 8.

Look at the date of the original post. Those weren't live odds. Those were early lines, posted twelve days ago.

 

[IllegalContact]

Newton is getting pounded.....not the same guy he was

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Newton is getting pounded.....not the same guy he was

They have had some big injuries on offense.

I don't know if Benjamin will miss some time

 

[jmt57]

NFL Latest Line: NFL lines. Weekly NFL line. Pro football betting lines.

Everyone should have this site bookmarked, most accurate/quickly updated site around.

Ironically the same site also has the same Westgate early lines:

Early NFL Odds: Look Ahead. Early NFL Betting Odds Posted When Available. Early Pro Football Odds.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Cam Newton is not good right now, i'll be shocked if this isn't a double digit win.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Those were the 'early' 'advanced' lines. Published twelve days before the game.

Odds change during game week too. Obviously that's going to be even more so an extra week in advance.

It's not a prediction of what the odds will be, so it's not a case of being wrong. That would be like saying the odds on the Ravens-Jaguars game was wrong.

Just use common sense.

The Patriots are the highest rated team in the NFL by Vegas. You can go to multiple websites, and every handicapper has them ranked first, meaning they would be favored on a neutral field against anyone. They were favored by 9 over KC and 14 over Houston. How would the spread possibly be only -3 against Carolina? The Patriots get 3-4 points for homefield, so Carolina is an overall better or equal team?

I stand by my opinion, which is that the line was wrong, published incorrectly. There is no team in the NFL who would be a mere 3 point underdog @NE, and certainly not Carolina. I guarantee this was an error, rather than an accurate early projection, even taking into account that a projection isn’t always going to stick. There is no handicapper in the world who would have projected that game at -3.

 

[jmt57]

Just use common sense.

The Patriots are the highest rated team in the NFL by Vegas. You can go to multiple websites, and every handicapper has them ranked first, meaning they would be favored on a neutral field against anyone. They were favored by 9 over KC and 14 over Houston. How would the spread possibly be only -3 against Carolina? The Patriots get 3-4 points for homefield, so Carolina is an overall better or equal team?

I stand by my opinion, which is that the line was wrong, published incorrectly. There is no team in the NFL who would be a mere 3 point underdog @NE, and certainly not Carolina. I guarantee this was an error, rather than an accurate early projection, even taking into account that a projection isn’t always going to stick. There is no handicapper in the world who would have put that game at -3.

I don't disagree that it could have been a mistake.

All I was saying was that was what was published.

If it was what they published, then the information was correct. I guess we are getting into semantics and assumptions. It sounded to me as though you were saying 'no, you are wrong, you're information is incorrect'. I was simply relaying what the Westgate had posted.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't disagree that it could have been a mistake.

All I was saying was that was what was published.

If it was what they published, then the information was correct. I guess we are getting into semantics and assumptions. It sounded to me as though you were saying 'no, you are wrong, you're information is incorrect'. I was simply relaying what the Westgate had posted.

Yes, misunderstanding. I know Westgate published it, but I think they made an error on their end.