DL & EDGE Players: Run stuffers, designated pass rushers, hybrids, etc

[maineman209]

I don't think they would overlook someone who could do both, but I agree it's a good theory. That's one reason I'm okay with Fadol Brown or Demarcus Walker, etc, rather than a pure speed guy. It just fits their M.O. better.

My evaluations haven't really looked a ton at Patriots tendencies and schemes, other than a few notes here and there. Patriot-specific scouting is a bit tougher.

I definitely support the theory. I think there's a pretty simple reason why that Pats under BB have long preferred DEs who can set the edge and stop the run over dominating sack specialists, and have preferred CBs who can cover well and play edge-contain and tackle over gaudy "playmakers" who can't or won't.

In 2017, the Pats play 8 games - half their schedule - against teams that placed in the top-ten in rushing yards and/or rushing TDs in 2016. Six games are against divisional rivals who all place in the top-12 in both categories. This includes two games against the team that placed #1 in both rushing yards and TDs in 2016 - the Bills (of course, Gilisslee is now ours).

This is far from unusual. The Pats three divisional foes have all regularly placed among the top-ten rushing teams in the NFL for at least the past decade. That's likely due to the fact that they've had some pretty crappy QBs. Attacking those QBs off the edge is probably a riskier strategy than limiting their ground games and forcing their crappy QBs to throw into coverage. So, focusing on having a good run defense is perhaps a significant reason why the Pats regularly win the AFCE.

Also, in 2017 the Pats play a total of 13 of their 16 regular season games against teams that placed in the top half of the league in rushing yards and/or rushing TDs.

Taken as a whole, the NFL may be a "passing league", but the Pats face only about 40% of the league in any given regular season. In order to make the playoffs and have a chance at yet another ring, they still need to win a certain minimum number of regular season games. So, they need to build a defense that is, first and foremost, capable of addressing the strengths of the offenses they'll face in the regular season. More often than not, the majority of those opposing offenses have included those with top RBs and/or top-ranked rushing attacks.

Of course, the problem with drafting a prospect who's a dominant rusher and good run defender is that they're usually gone by the time the Pats' first pick rolls around. So, the Pats typically end up with the far less exciting guys who are solid run defenders and who can rush a bit. Which suits them just fine, anyway.

 

[DaBruinz]

Haven't had a chance to read through the whole thing.. What's the take on Trey Hendrickson? The guys at NFLDraftscout.com felt he was a perfect fit for the Pats schemes. And in the 3rd round..

 

[DaBruinz]

Bingo.

Unfortunately, this is where Bill in his myopia has failed us time & time & time again. He is simply incapable of seeing the forest of more talented players who have fallen to him through the trees of less talented (and in many cases, Far less talented) players who will still be available later (and in many cases, Much later) in the draft.

You have been beating this drum for over a decade. You've been proven wrong time and again. BB has 5 rings and 7 trips to the SB since 2001. Think about that.. That's 43% of the SBs during that time that his teams have participated in..

But, yeah, "Bill's myopia has failed us time & time & time again". Seriously dude. You're blathering is so old that it's got mold growing on it.. You still haven't learned the simplest concept that Belichick has taught. That's it's about building a team, not collecting talent.

That's why you will ALWAYS be some loud-mouthed, know-nothing board troll and BB will continue to add to his SB Ring Collection..

 

[DaBruinz]

What exactly does any of this post have to do with the Fact that whenever Bill reaches for somebody that nobody else had ranked in the same round (or two, or three, or...) in which they were taken, they All have Sucked?

Sebastian Vollmer, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon, etc, all say HI and GFY..

 

[kennyb]

Stone is far more right than wrong. Ryan was not a reach and vollmer only slightly so if at all. Jordan richards? Duron harmon is a compleye jag. Watch how he whiffed on the long sb run toward the end of the game. Just stood there. The reach who's now in detroit.

BB has a nasty habit of outthinking the draft and reaching especially for dbs. You'd think economics would teach him that it's not smart to reach for guys who will probably be around much later. And if they aren't some other equally good (or bad) player will be. Game theory. Hello?

Captain Stone is stating the obvious. If BB consulted him for his opinion, he'd be a better drafter.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Haven't had a chance to read through the whole thing.. What's the take on Trey Hendrickson? The guys at NFLDraftscout.com felt he was a perfect fit for the Pats schemes. And in the 3rd round..

I gave him a harsh review, but that's only because I try to nitpick prospects in my breakdowns. You might come away from it thinking that I don't like him, but that's not accurate. He definitely has nice athleticism off the edge. I just worry about his run defense, so I said he might not be a full time fit for our scheme. Still, as a third-down specialist, he's good, and potentially exceptional. Not many players show the quickness he does when rushing and in pursuit. He's a very solid player, and would be well worth 72/96.

Evaluation: DL & EDGE Players: Run stuffers, designated pass rushers, hybrids, etc

 

[maineman209]

it's not smart to reach for guys who will probably be around much later.

You absolutely can not know that these guys would have been available "much later."

There is no one who is not part of an NFL team's draft war room who can possibly know this.

 

[kennyb]

You absolutely can not know that these guys would have been available "much later."

There is no one who is not part of an NFL team's draft war room who can possibly know this.

Yes, of course. You have to play the odds. What was so special about jordan richards they had to draft him in the 2nd round? He was projected udfa. Slow as molassess. If he had been drafted in the 3rd 4th 5th fine, FIND ANOTHER PLAYER LIKE HIM. What was so special about him they couldnt risk him being drafted so just had to get him with a 2nd rounder? And yes, just as everyone predicted, slow safety = marginal player. BB wasnt the genius who outfoxed everyone. He most likely could have drafted him much later and if he couldnt no big loss.
Sometimes the consensus is the consensus for a reason. Even if theyre wrong why waste a 2nd when you could have taken a good player there who wouldnt last much longer.

 

[maineman209]

Yes, of course. You have to play the odds. What was so special about jordan richards they had to draft him in the 2nd round? He was projected udfa. Slow as molassess. If he had been drafted in the 3rd 4th 5th fine, FIND ANOTHER PLAYER LIKE HIM. What was so special about him they couldnt risk him being drafted so just had to get him with a 2nd rounder? And yes, just as everyone predicted, slow safety = marginal player. BB wasnt the genius who outfoxed everyone. He most likely could have drafted him much later and if he couldnt no big loss.
Sometimes the consensus is the consensus for a reason. Even if theyre wrong why waste a 2nd when you could have taken a good player there who wouldnt last much longer.

"Consensus" and projections are fantasy.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Of course the guy I didn't finish researching ends up being our pick. I'll do a full breakdown tomorrow, but I'm incredibly pleased with the pick!

 

[bakes781]

Of course the guy I didn't finish researching ends up being our pick. I'll do a full breakdown tomorrow, but I'm incredibly pleased with the pick!

And I searched the whole thread for my man Rivers!

 

[WaterfallJumper]

And I searched the whole thread for my man Rivers!

I was having trouble finding enough film against quality competition. Most of his games were against smaller schools. I'll finish up my notes tomorrow. Essentially: absurdly good with his hands for a small school player; very quick; excellent at flatting to the quarterback and not getting stuck to the tackle, etc. My concerns were his slight frame, but he did show explosion in his jumps and put up a ton of reps (I don't put a lot of stock in the bench, but it does show commitment to the weight room).

MockDraftable

Derek Rivers | Draft Breakdown

The biggest thing I liked about him is the amount of work he puts into the film room:

Exclusive Interview with Youngstown State EDGE Derek Rivers | Draft Breakdown

Rivers: Most definitely. It always starts in the film room. That’s how I first understand the type of guy that I’m going up against. Does he bail, does he set vertically, does he set at an angle, or maybe he jump-steps a lot. You get to see how strong he is with his hands, does he punch high or low? It’s definitely a mind game. If you get somebody who bails a lot, I might start hitting him with speed-to-bull a couple of times in a row, then he’ll start settling his feet and he’ll start preparing for power because he’s sick of getting bull-rushed.

I love your attention to detail. You talk about doing some homework on your opponent, how much time do you spend in the film room?

Rivers: I spend about five to seven extra hours on top of what’s required of me. It’s very important to my game. I play the left side and Avery Moss plays on the right side. Having the knowledge that the film can provide you is huge. You go in there more confident because you know what to expect. After those first couple of snaps, you start to understand, this is exactly what I expected. You know what’s gonna’ happen before the play starts and you now understand what type of guy you’re going up against.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Good breakdown by the guys over at Steelers Depot. They wanted Rivers at #30 overall.

2017 NFL Draft Player Profiles: Youngstown State OLB Derek Rivers - Steelers Depot

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Reposted from another thread, to outline my thought process in scouting Edge players this year, and why Rivers slipped through the cracks a bit. Always good to self-evaluate, and see how to adjust my methods:

I'm still so hyped for Rivers. He's a slight departure from our usual profile at edge. We've got a lot of stout guys who can set the edge against the run, and reduce inside to rush versus guards against the pass, and I figured that's what we would look for early in the draft. I originally thought that Rivers would go somewhere in the 25 - 50 range, so I didn't put a lot of work into his evaluation, but I loved what I saw of his hands and his twitchiness and ability to bend the edge. He's possibly the most refined of the pass rushers this year, despite playing for a small school.

We've seen guys with a similar athletic profile, such as Mark Anderson or B. Mingo (I never did learn to spell the entire thing) come in at a discount: scooped up cheap in free agency, or acquired via late round picks. We've never seen an early round pick spent on a player who is a pure pass rushing threat. Now, I realize that 83 isn't particularly early, but all things considered, it's the earliest we've taken a true edge player in quite some time, other than Chandler Jones (who again fits the bigger profile).

I think we all wanted a guy with the potential to scream off the edge, however. That's why I was mostly scouting edge players who had the size and physicality to fit the Flowers/Ealy/Long/Jones profile, but who also had the upside to threaten the edge. Jordan Willis seemed like the best compromise of the bunch (slightly heavier than Rivers, even better testing numbers, good production at an FBS school, but noted for his physical play and work against the run), and Basham also caught my eye as a guy who could play double-duty. I figured that since Rivers was 1) sub-250 pounds, and 2) likely to go late-first or early-second, he wouldn't be as realistic of a target at 72/96.

While I still like both of those players, I'm ecstatic that we ended up with Rivers instead, because he was the only one who played to his numbers on tape. He was significantly burstier and bendier -- he jumped off the screen with his speed and urgency to the quarterback. He's also surprisingly refined with hand placement and his ability to disengage from a blocker. I love his production and demeanor, and I've never been more glad to be wrong about what the Patriots were looking for with their first pick (to be fair, I had the right position at least).

 

[DaBruinz]

Stone is far more right than wrong. Ryan was not a reach and vollmer only slightly so if at all. Jordan richards? Duron harmon is a compleye jag. Watch how he whiffed on the long sb run toward the end of the game. Just stood there. The reach who's now in detroit.

Clearly you don't know WTF you are talking about. Ryan was considered a reach by Stone. Vollmer wasn't on anyone's radar and Stone BLASTED BB for the pick..

Complete JAGS don't get paid starter money by Belichick. So your analysis of Harmon is bunk..

BB has a nasty habit of outthinking the draft and reaching especially for dbs. You'd think economics would teach him that it's not smart to reach for guys who will probably be around much later. And if they aren't some other equally good (or bad) player will be. Game theory. Hello?

Captain Stone is stating the obvious. If BB consulted him for his opinion, he'd be a better drafter.

Captain Stone doesn't state the obvious. He regurgitates the draft guides that you can find online. He ignores the fact that BB interviews these guys one on one in many cases.

As BB has said and you clearly are ignorant of, they are building a team, not collecting talent.

No one would be a better drafter by consulting Stone. They'd be fired and out of the league. Just like Doug Whaley, Ryan Grigson, and a host of others.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Reposted from another thread, to outline my thought process in scouting Edge players this year, and why Rivers slipped through the cracks a bit. Always good to self-evaluate, and see how to adjust my methods:

I'm still so hyped for Rivers. He's a slight departure from our usual profile at edge. We've got a lot of stout guys who can set the edge against the run, and reduce inside to rush versus guards against the pass, and I figured that's what we would look for early in the draft. I originally thought that Rivers would go somewhere in the 25 - 50 range, so I didn't put a lot of work into his evaluation, but I loved what I saw of his hands and his twitchiness and ability to bend the edge. He's possibly the most refined of the pass rushers this year, despite playing for a small school.

We've seen guys with a similar athletic profile, such as Mark Anderson or B. Mingo (I never did learn to spell the entire thing) come in at a discount: scooped up cheap in free agency, or acquired via late round picks. We've never seen an early round pick spent on a player who is a pure pass rushing threat. Now, I realize that 83 isn't particularly early, but all things considered, it's the earliest we've taken a true edge player in quite some time, other than Chandler Jones (who again fits the bigger profile).

I think we all wanted a guy with the potential to scream off the edge, however. That's why I was mostly scouting edge players who had the size and physicality to fit the Flowers/Ealy/Long/Jones profile, but who also had the upside to threaten the edge. Jordan Willis seemed like the best compromise of the bunch (slightly heavier than Rivers, even better testing numbers, good production at an FBS school, but noted for his physical play and work against the run), and Basham also caught my eye as a guy who could play double-duty. I figured that since Rivers was 1) sub-250 pounds, and 2) likely to go late-first or early-second, he wouldn't be as realistic of a target at 72/96.

While I still like both of those players, I'm ecstatic that we ended up with Rivers instead, because he was the only one who played to his numbers on tape. He was significantly burstier and bendier -- he jumped off the screen with his speed and urgency to the quarterback. He's also surprisingly refined with hand placement and his ability to disengage from a blocker. I love his production and demeanor, and I've never been more glad to be wrong about what the Patriots were looking for with their first pick (to be fair, I had the right position at least).

Nice job man. Great work this year.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Nice job man. Great work this year.

Thanks! You too. Nice job on Rivers. You've been a huge boost to our board. Thanks for all the information and analysis; I definitely learn a lot from reading your thoughts.

 

[Luxusdk]

I'm ecstatic that we ended up with Rivers instead, because he was the only one who played to his numbers on tape. He was significantly burstier and bendier -- he jumped off the screen with his speed and urgency to the quarterback. He's also surprisingly refined with hand placement and his ability to disengage from a blocker. I love his production and demeanor, and I've never been more glad to be wrong about what the Patriots were looking for with their first pick (to be fair, I had the right position at least).

In FBS history ( since 2000 )
Rivers is ranked 5 all time with 37.5 sacks, number 1 Terrell Suggs with 44
Rivers is 4 all time in TFL 56.5, number 1 Kalil Mack with 65
Luke Kuechly is 1 in tackles etc

Thats 3 players, all happens to win "Defense player of the year" award in NFL.

So being top 4 or 5 on those lists matters.
IF Rivers "only" becomes 90% of Suggs/Mack, useing #83 ill do every single year.

 

[long distance]

Great thread that brought us two great prospects.
More than you could hope for when you started this, reamer.

Happy about result myself. Projected double dip with one OLB/DE and one DE/DL. Usually went with Basham/Anderson & Walker/Wise in my mocks (Willis was not on boards at 72), but now i'm happier with what they picked (Wise was my first binkie actually). I wanted speed and interior rush and BB&co found the perfect combination (since Walker went earlier than most had him). I started to sweat a bit when Basham and Willis went, since there was only Rivers left from the top DE/OLB prospects I liked. Imagine the relief and joy that followed..

I think we should be motivated as hell for next year when we might have plethora of picks starting much higher..