Football Outsiders Preview

[VrabelMayeWin]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Super Bowl LI Preview

Always the best for stats stuff. Lots of stuff we know, some stuff I haven't seen talked about. Very much worth the (long) read.

 

[denverpatsfan]

They picked the Pats in 2007. Just saying...

 

[Mike the Brit]

They picked the Pats in 2007. Just saying...

Who didn't?

 

[irishfanatic]

Wow that was a long read. Ordinarily I really like Dion Lewis but I have had a feeling all week that James White is going to have a really big game. Here' s hoping.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

They picked the Pats in 2007. Just saying...

Who the hell cares ? It's not even about who they are picking, just a lot of information that's not generally available or talked about.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Wow that was a long read. Ordinarily I really like Dion Lewis but I have had a feeling all week that James White is going to jave a really big game. Here' s hoping.

We all know Vereen had a monster game in SB 49 against Quinn's defense. White is clearly a good pick based on that and White's season.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Wow that was a long read. Ordinarily I really like Dion Lewis but I have had a feeling all week that James White is going to jave a really big game. Here' s hoping.

I understand he may not even dress, but I have a kind of random thought that Floyd could be lying in wait for a huge game. The Falcons have seen and heard all about Hogan, Lewis, Blount, Marty, and of course JE.

But, what if Floyd's had enough acclimation to the system and game plan over the course of the playoffs w/ 2 bye weeks that he could be the totally unexpected X factor that tends to crop up in Superbowls?

 

[BobDigital]

I think something not being talked enough (though this article brought it up) is STs. The Pats have a big edge here and I could see them pinning Atlanta inside the 10 a few times while they fail to do that to us more than once.

Also I could easily see Atlanta try to return a few inadvisable punts or kickoffs while Edelman has so much experience you know he will make the right call every time.

The Pats will be hard for Atlanta to stop and if Atlanta has any hiccups on offense they could need to play catch up all game long.

The only thing I am worried about is the first quarter. As the game goes on the Pats advantage grows imo if it is close or we have the lead.

However the first quarter is the worry. The Pats have been notoriously slow super bowl starts and the Falcons look to jump on teams quick.

If the Pats come out ahead in the first quarter or just even my win prediction goes from 60-65% to 75-80%.

 

[shmessy]

Cam Fleming is a better blocker than Lengel and Michael Floyd is a better big/strong receiving threat than Lengel.

Why not sit Lengel at this point?

 

[juny]

they point out how ATL d has improved over the past few weeks. wouldn't sleep on their d but still think the NE offense will have the upper hand on them.

 

[Former Fan]

They picked the Pats in 2007. Just saying...

That was 10 years ago now. They also picked the Giants '11.

 

[jah]

They picked the Pats in 2007. Just saying...

Predictive statistics was wrong one time...must be useless.

 

[stinkypete]

They picked the Pats in 2007. Just saying...

Why, did you pick the Giants?

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

However the first quarter is the worry. The Pats have been notoriously slow super bowl starts and the Falcons look to jump on teams quick.

If the Pats come out ahead in the first quarter or just even my win prediction goes from 60-65% to 75-80%.

'
By the same token, the Pats defense has been stellar in the first quarter giving up 13 points ( TD and 2 FG) in 6 games. The other 2 points allowed were the safety on Brady for intentional grounding vs NYG in SB 46.

 

[irishfanatic]

Wow that was a long read. Ordinarily I really like Dion Lewis but I have had a feeling all week that James White is going to jave a really big game. Here' s hoping.

As I said in the James White Thread, "self praise is no praise", but I cannot help myself, especially given the manner of this SB victory.
Go James White and apologies for patting my own back.
GO PATS

 

[TomPatriot]

Biggest stat = 93 offensive plays.