Ah Yes, That OTHER Framegate Urban Myth - - Fumbles

[shmessy]

Now that the league is making sure the Patriots don't cheat with the football inflation, those Patriots stats on fumbling MUST be getting closer to the average, right????????

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@MikeReiss
Patriots have league-low 3 turnovers through 7 games. Lions (20) & Colts (19) w/ NFL high. Patriots' plus-7 differential tied for 2nd in NFL
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Soooo......(Given Brady's 1 INT - - and not his fault) that means the Pats have TWO total lost fumbles in 7 games this year. They are on a 5 pace.

Weren't "properly inflated" footballs supposed to bring them back to the pack?

 

[Fencer]

Pats have fumbled more than twice.

But it seems they've only lost two fumbles.

 

[shmessy]

Pats have fumbled more than twice.

But it seems they've only lost two fumbles.

Deflategate!!!!!!!!!

The Patriots MUST be doing something to the balls that make them easier to recover!!!!!!!!

 

[patfanken]

Pats have fumbled more than twice.

But it seems they've only lost two fumbles.

Statistically every time there is a fumble the odds are 50-50 the other side will recover it. I don't know the number of times the Pats have dropped the ball, but I'm guessing 4 of which they lost 2 (1- Lewis, 1- Brady)

Regardless, their success over the years with ball security is remarkable, and another of the many hidden reasons for their consistent success over the years. But cheating is SO much easier an answer to the weak minded.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Statistically every time there is a fumble the odds are 50-50 the other side will recover it.

That's not true. Defense has an edge that they're running to the ball whereas offense is mostly running away from the ball. However offense has an advantage that if the ball doesn't get far away the fumbler often can recover it, knowing first that he fumbled. Not sure how that works out statistically but it's not 50-50 just because there's 11 on each side.

According to ESPN we have fumbled just three times. Brady once, presumably on a sack. And Dion Lewis twice, each of his first two games back after not playing in the NFL for two years.

New England Patriots 2015 Statistics - Team and Player Stats - ESPN

 

[Oswlek]

That's not true. Defense has an edge that they're running to the ball whereas offense is mostly running away from the ball.

It actually is true, fumble recovery is a completely random event. There are pockets where one side is more likely to recover (like (edit) offense on a strip sack, for example), but it's 50/50 overall.

 

[Concussion Protocol]

That's not true. Defense has an edge that they're running to the ball whereas offense is mostly running away from the ball. However offense has an advantage that if the ball doesn't get far away the fumbler often can recover it, knowing first that he fumbled. Not sure how that works out statistically but it's not 50-50 just because there's 11 on each side.

According to ESPN we have fumbled just three times. Brady once, presumably on a sack. And Dion Lewis twice, each of his first two games back after not playing in the NFL for two years.

New England Patriots 2015 Statistics - Team and Player Stats - ESPN

I think Brady has been strip-sacked by the Bills, Cowboys, and Jets, but the latter 2 were recovered by the Pats.

 

[Rhodey]

Deflategate!!!!!!!!!

The Patriots MUST be doing something to the balls that make them easier to recover!!!!!!!!

Perhaps, it's the way Brady grabs/throws the ball?

Whatever he's doing, it's causing other teams to lose consistently. Isn't that a form of cheating (without going into the concrete aspects of it all)?

 

[Big-T]

Luck sailing his passes and looking like hot garbage + Colts 2nd in the league in fumbles? The league are supposedly checking ball pressure this year? I'm saying the former statement cannot be coincidental to the 2nd.

Essentially, Grigson screwed his own cheating franchise.

 

[Concussion Protocol]

Luck sailing his passes and looking like hot garbage + Colts 2nd in the league in fumbles? The league are supposedly checking ball pressure this year? I'm saying the former statement cannot be coincidental to the 2nd.

Essentially, Grigson screwed his own cheating franchise.

Rodgers doesn't quite look the same either. This witch hunt was a killer for the guys who love over-inflated footballs. All Brady ever wanted was 12.5-13.5 balls. We know this. He finally has a level playing field, and he's making all other QBs look like amateurs.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

It actually is true, fumble recovery is a completely random event. There are pockets where one side is more likely to recover (like defense on a strip sack, for example), but it's 50/50 overall.

I don't believe that. It's not logical. It's not 22 guys, 11 in each color, standing equidistant from the ball. Maybe the advantages for the offense are approximately equal to the advantages of the defense. But there are non equal events taking place (such as I mentioned). If a WR fumbles he's usually alone whereas there's a CB there and usually a safety heading over. Does the proximity and awareneness of the WR exactly equal more defensive bodies ? It can't. Maybe it's close enough to say 50-50 but there's more going on than "completely random".

 

[Observer]

Perhaps, it's the way Brady grabs/throws the ball?

Whatever he's doing, it's causing other teams to lose consistently. Isn't that a form of cheating (without going into the concrete aspects of it all)?

Exeptionalism cannot be tolerated in the cultural drive to mediocrity. Being a statistical outlier is mathematical proof of cheating.

Yup, little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

 

[patfanken]

That's not true. Defense has an edge that they're running to the ball whereas offense is mostly running away from the ball. However offense has an advantage that if the ball doesn't get far away the fumbler often can recover it, knowing first that he fumbled. Not sure how that works out statistically but it's not 50-50 just because there's 11 on each side.

According to ESPN we have fumbled just three times. Brady once, presumably on a sack. And Dion Lewis twice, each of his first two games back after not playing in the NFL for two years.

New England Patriots 2015 Statistics - Team and Player Stats - ESPN

While your logic might be correct, the fact on fumbles are 50%. It's just the way it is. BTW, I'd be questioning ESPN's figures, because if they are including fumbles recovered by the offense, Brady has had at LEAST 2 (the strip sack vs Buffalo which he lost, and a fumble he recovered vs the Jets - the one the fortunately bounced back into his arms).

Regardless of our nitpicking, what the Pats have done in ball security is remarkable

 

[rexxar]

Hey OP, you wait until the the temperature drops.. their fumble rate will greatly increase. Not because balls are harder to handle for all teams during inclement weather, but instead because it fits the "Patriots cheat agenda"./sarcasm

edit:

On a side note -- I'm pretty sure what people didn't understand during the whole fumble-gate saga was that the Patriots still put the ball on the ground a lot. However, they recovered the majority of fumbles. People focused on fumbles lost and not actual fumbles.

edit2:

I stand corrected. Most years, Pats are at the bottom of the fumbles column. Thanks guys.

 

[Fencer]

Statistically every time there is a fumble the odds are 50-50 the other side will recover it. I don't know the number of times the Pats have dropped the ball, but I'm guessing 4 of which they lost 2 (1- Lewis, 1- Brady)

And that, in a nutshell, is why you weren't a high school math teacher.

 

[Concussion Protocol]

FWIW, Brady has lost 41 out of 98 career fumbles (42%). It seems like QB fumbles are recovered by the offense much better than 50% of the time.

Peyton has lost 28/74 (38%)
Brees 35/89 (39%)
Rodgers 18/52 (35%)
Ben 40/78 (51%)

 

[patchick]

On a side note -- I'm pretty sure what people didn't understand during the whole fumble-gate saga was that the Patriots still put the ball on the ground a lot. However, they recovered the majority of fumbles.

Actually, with the sole exception of 2013 the Patriots are consistently among the league leaders in fewest total fumbles:

Team Fumbles and Fumbles Lost: 2015 NFL Season

 

[Oswlek]

I don't believe that. It's not logical. It's not 22 guys, 11 in each color, standing equidistant from the ball. Maybe the advantages for the offense are approximately equal to the advantages of the defense. But there are non equal events taking place (such as I mentioned). If a WR fumbles he's usually alone whereas there's a CB there and usually a safety heading over. Does the proximity and awareneness of the WR exactly equal more defensive bodies ? It can't. Maybe it's close enough to say 50-50 but there's more going on than "completely random".

It is true. The studies on it are conclusive enough and old enough that I thought it was common knowledge. Barnwell, for instance, arrived at Grantland four years ago already discussing regression toward the mean on fumble recovery rates as a predictor of improvement/decline.

 

[Oswlek]

On a side note -- I'm pretty sure what people didn't understand during the whole fumble-gate saga was that the Patriots still put the ball on the ground a lot. However, they recovered the majority of fumbles. People focused on fumbles lost and not actual fumbles.

The fumble discussions in the aftermath of DFG were about total fumbles not fumbles lost. They were still horribly flawed, but at least they got that one right.

 

[Oswlek]

FWIW, Brady has lost 41 out of 98 career fumbles (42%). It seems like QB fumbles are recovered by the offense much better than 50% of the time.

Peyton has lost 28/74 (38%)
Brees 35/89 (39%)
Rodgers 18/52 (35%)
Ben 40/78 (51%)

Interesting, I must have reversed it in my strip sack comment earlier. I knew that it was one of the few that is slanted in one direction, but obviously I got the direction wrong.