Clayton praises GMing

[Fencer]

There are quite a few Pats players, past and present, who came to the team as UDFAs:
Andrews.
Kline.
Bolden.
Connolly.
BJGE.
Vellano.
Arrington.
Dane Fletcher.
Kenbrell Thompkins.

We've also picked up some UDFA players that came into the league with other teams, most notably:
Welker.
Amendola.
Woodhead.

From that list, Bolden is another guy who's on his post-rookie-scale/ERFA contract, which probably is the right way to slice things. I.e., a guy you keep at somewhere around free market value probably was playing at less than free market value before, and further is probably worth more to you than to other teams even at free market value because he knows your system.

 

[memento]

I liked an analysis a while ago that went by how many drafted players are still in the league and starting. A lot of drafted players are out of the league after their first or second contract, and there's half a dozen ex-Pat draftees that we don't really think about anymore that are starting on other rosters: Watson on the Saints, Merryweather with the Giants, Mankins on the Bucs, Cassel is starting for the Cowboys, the Texans have a tossup between Hoyer and Mallet at starting QB. Darius Butler still starts for the Colts.

 

[RayClay]

I think it's more complicated than that. Suppose you draft guys good enough not only to retain with a second contract, but also good enough that the rest of the league wants to woo them away from you...

So the premise is at best a simplification, perhaps a proxy for something more subtle. Yes, it is clearly correlated with success. But correlation and causation can be confused. Could it be that draft picks are more likely to resign with teams that are successful, not dysfunctional teams throwing money at a problem they don't understand?

Also, I'm confused by your use of the word "value". Just what do you mean? Is it the value in contributions on the field? Is it the value of cheap contracts leaving more cap space for others? What is this "value" of which you speak?

You have a point, but knowing who to resign and who to let go makes a huge difference. Vereen third down back? Sure, he was a 2nd round pick, pretty high, but...how many small quick guys are out there any time? Compared to big athletic linemen, lots. Turns out they found a phenom, but they would have filled the position similarly somehow.

Now, linemen as talented as Seymour and Wilfork? They are very hard to find and if you do, there's usually character or other concerns. Negotiations got acrimonius too, but they locked them up. Vollmer too, though not as difficult.

They definitely wanted Welker, but when his agent started being a jerk, on the phone to Amendola...and Amendola wasn't even the replacement. How many quick receivers have they picked up? Keshawn Martin looks pretty good too.

Pats want to extend players who love the game and are good team players but, realistically, if you're going to challenge on a contract, you better be irreplaceable.

It's interesting that two of the worst second round picks (one is deceased, no disrespect) were faux replacements for Wilfork and Seymour and they apparently fooled no one, especially their agents. "There's only so many huge, athletic people who can play football" is a paraphrase BB has quoted from a source i can't remember.

 

[RayClay]

I don't think it makes a damn bit of difference to the Patriots how they acquire players, they might as well be a bunch of potatoes in a sack. They scouted and worked to find Butler and he's going to get a contract worthy of his skills in time, probably from them, I'm guessing.

James White was drafted, so what. Dobson, same. Throw them out and find more. That's why they're always churning the roster or trying guys out. Fit matters a lot, other teams don't do that work to constantly evaluate.

1st round picks excepted, but when you're always picking last, they're just as likely to trade down for more tickets to the drawing.

[Not picking on White and Dobson, but they are examples of draft picks who'll need to make a role for themselves pretty soon IMO].

 

[n1997y]

Right. He was a solid starter.

But that's nowhere near the level of a Brady or Gronk, and it's even well behind McCourty.

Not sure I'd put Neal less than McCourty, position for position. For what he did I would say he was equally above average as D Mac.

 

[1960Pats]

I liked an analysis a while ago that went by how many drafted players are still in the league and starting. A lot of drafted players are out of the league after their first or second contract, and there's half a dozen ex-Pat draftees that we don't really think about anymore that are starting on other rosters: Watson on the Saints, Merryweather with the Giants, Mankins on the Bucs, Cassel is starting for the Cowboys, the Texans have a tossup between Hoyer and Mallet at starting QB. Darius Butler still starts for the Colts.

I have the numbers for all players drafted by the AFCE teams during the BB era.

Team-Drafted-Still on team-Still in NFL-Out of football

Buffalo - 132 - 29 - 26 - 77
Miami - 121 - 26 - 39 - 56
Patriots - 144 - 35 - 23 - 86
NY Jets - 110 - 27 - 27 - 56

 

[PatsDeb]

I think the more general lesson is continuity breeds excellence. All three of those teams also have had the same Coach/QB for many years. You need to find a good coach and pair him with good players. It's not that hard a concept, but it is hard to find the right fits.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I have the numbers for all players drafted by the AFCE teams during the BB era.

Team-Drafted-Still on team-Still in NFL-Out of football

Buffalo - 132 - 29 - 26 - 77
Miami - 121 - 26 - 39 - 56
Patriots - 144 - 35 - 23 - 86
NY Jets - 110 - 27 - 27 - 56

This is really interesting.

The Pats had the most picks.
The Pats have the most players that were drafted on them still with the team.
They have the lowest number of players still in the NFL and the highest number out of football.

Based on just the numbers, in terms of evaluating and drafting NFL talent, MIA is the best and the Pats are the worst.

Draft position and the types of players the Pats look for has a lot to do with this.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

I have the numbers for all players drafted by the AFCE teams during the BB era.

Team-Drafted-Still on team-Still in NFL-Out of football

Buffalo - 132 - 29 - 26 - 77
Miami - 121 - 26 - 39 - 56
Patriots - 144 - 35 - 23 - 86
NY Jets - 110 - 27 - 27 - 56

Interesting, but it seems like adding the two middle numbers would make sense. Players still on the team are still in the NFL.

 

[DarrylS]

Have always had difficulty understanding how Wally Cox, err I mean Clayton became such a football expert...

 

[RayClay]

I have the numbers for all players drafted by the AFCE teams during the BB era.

Team-Drafted-Still on team-Still in NFL-Out of football

Buffalo - 132 - 29 - 26 - 77
Miami - 121 - 26 - 39 - 56
Patriots - 144 - 35 - 23 - 86
NY Jets - 110 - 27 - 27 - 56

Thanks for the stat. That's why I disagree with people who think it's great we drafted a player good enough to stay in the NFL. What good does that do us. We're better off to draft a player that fits our team, that might get cut elsewhere.

Look at Miami. Lowest in players on their team, highest by far in players that worked elsewhere. Shows me they were drafting from a website ranking instead of who fit their team. Look at them now.

 

[RayClay]

Interesting, but it seems like adding the two middle numbers would make sense. Players still on the team are still in the NFL.

Why? What good is it that a player you wasted a pick on is playing somewhere else?

 

[RayClay]

This is really interesting.

The Pats had the most picks.
The Pats have the most players that were drafted on them still with the team.
They have the lowest number of players still in the NFL and the highest number out of football.

Based on just the numbers, in terms of evaluating and drafting NFL talent, MIA is the best and the Pats are the worst.

Draft position and the types of players the Pats look for has a lot to do with this.

Yes, but

"We are not collecting talent, we are building a team"

Drafting a player that fits somewhere else, not on your team, is simply a negative

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yes, but

"We are not collecting talent, we are building a team"

Drafting a player that fits somewhere else, not on your team, is simply a negative

I agree.

In terms of % of players drafted that stay with the team, Pats lead at 24%.

In terms of % of players drafted that are not in the NFL, Pats lead by a narrow margin.

In terms of players drafted, they have the fewest % will other clubs.

There are so many angles to this. What we do know is...

-They always draft low.
-BB misses a lot but his hits alot and has more chances to hit/miss than any team.
-The qualities that they view as important are not necessarily shared by other teams which makes them less desirable to other clubs.
-Org changes have a lot to do with it.
-Pats have the youngest team in football right now..I think.

Those factors have a lot to do with it.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Why? What good is it that a player you wasted a pick on is playing somewhere else?

He's attempting to ascertain whether a GM is sufficiently evaluating and drafting NFL talent.

 

[RayClay]

I agree.

In terms of % of players drafted that stay with the team, Pats lead at 24%.

In terms of % of players drafted that are not in the NFL, Pats lead by a narrow margin.

In terms of players drafted, they have the fewest % will other clubs.

There are so many angles to this. What we do know is...

-They always draft low.
-BB misses a lot but his hits alot and has more chances to hit/miss than any team.
-The qualities that they view as important are not necessarily shared by other teams which makes them less desirable to other clubs.
-Org changes have a lot to do with it.
-Pats have the youngest team in football right now..I think.

Those factors have a lot to do with it.

They gamble a lot because of low picks and all that matters is stocking your own team. What in the world good does it do Miami to draft players for other teams? Think about it.

 

[RayClay]

He's attempting to ascertain whether a GM is sufficiently evaluating and drafting NFL talent.

Which doesn't matter.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Which doesn't matter.

Doesn't matter to who? You? Then don't discuss it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

They gamble a lot because of low picks and all that matters is stocking your own team. What in the world good does it do Miami to draft players for other teams? Think about it.

For those of us who do any investing or speculate in the stock market, BB absolutely treats football players like a stock. Every investor has their own strategy and philosophy and he is no different. It also means that his investing strategy is not the same as someone else's.

Fascinating.

 

[RayClay]

Doesn't matter to who? You? Then don't discuss it.

Doesn't matter to the team that drafted them if they don't fit that team. Look at the stats pats1960 posted and compare the amount of picks Miami picked for themselves and how many they picked for other teams. Now look at how Miami's playing.

You could hire an intern to pick the next player on a generic "most talented" list. There are scouting services everywhere, it's no mystery. The only thing that gets you, if most of your picks help improve other teams, is that those players can now beat you and show you you don't know how to draft.