Devin McCourty

[patchick]

The cost of Revis and McCourty is projected by our many posts to be about $24M a year. Maybe Belichick will consider this a good use of $24M, maybe not.

And in other news, Solder, Hightower and Chandler Jones are all entering the final year of their contracts, too. There do seem to be some painful decisions ahead.

 

[McClusky]

When Harmon is deep -- such as for example on his INT vs. the Ravens or on Kearse's circus catch in the Super Bowl -- what is McCourty doing?

He's usually playing slot corner. They'll use him to clog the middle and to double crossers as well.

On the Harmon INT he was in the slot, I believe covering Marlon Brown. On the Kearse catch it looked like they were using him as a spy on Wilson, but based on his depth I think they were giving him some space to freelance to try to make a play.

 

[McClusky]

And in other news, Solder, Hightower and Chandler Jones are all entering the final year of their contracts, too. There do seem to be some painful decisions ahead.

I said before this season that this was going to be a prove it year for a lot of our 2nd contract veterans that I believe in aggregate were overpaid. I think we drafted poorly from 2006 to 2008 which led to us over paying guys like Amendola, Arrington, and Mayo because we simply needed to have some depth of prime type veterans. Now that some of the young guys have stepped up there is substantial long term savings to be gained by transitioning to the younger guys. The first shoe has already dropped with the Mankins trade.

I think people tend to look at the current year in terms of salary cap planning, but in reality it's a multi-year look. Signing bonuses are a sunk cost. Sure releasing guys like Mayo, arrington, or Amendola don't create a ton of room in 2015 because of the acceleration of the cap hit. However, if let's say we released those 3 we'd have $22 million less in cap commitments for 2016 which would pay for the majority of the hits for Solder, High tower, and Jones. We could always June 1st any of those guys too which could split the savings between both years.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Just write everyone's names down who thinks mccourty is average, then if they let him walk in FA post them half way through the year in one of the threads that complaining about our defense giving up huge plays down the field all the time and why doesn't the front office get someone that can play safety.

I can see it now.

Good Free safeties in this league are like unicorns. . They're extremely rare and only a handful that exist currently in the nfl.. yet some people are willing to just let one of the best ones in the game entering the prime of his career walk in FA.

Not only is his safety play top 5 in the league, he's entering the prime of his career, has been a respected team captain, plays well in the kicking game when needed, is a class act and stand up guy who's never been in trouble with anybody or anything, is tremendous in supporting the community and was a nominee for the Walter Peyton award and tows the company line to the letter as if he were BB himself. .

Yup, just let him walk we can replace him no problem, just plug Harmon in there!

God help us all.

 

[McClusky]

Just write everyone's names down who thinks mccourty is average, then if they let him walk in FA post them half way through the year in one of the threads that complaining about our defense giving up huge plays down the field all the time and why doesn't the front office get someone that can play safety.

I can see it now.

Good Free safeties in this league are like unicorns. . They're extremely rare and only a handful that exist currently in the nfl.. yet some people are willing to just let one of the best ones in the game entering the prime of his career walk in FA.

Not only is his safety play top 5 in the league, he's entering the prime of his career, has been a respected team captain, plays well in the kicking game when needed, is a class act and stand up guy who's never been in trouble with anybody or anything, is tremendous in supporting the community and was a nominee for the Walter Peyton award and tows the company line to the letter as if he were BB himself. .

Yup, just let him walk we can replace him no problem, just plug Harmon in there!

God help us all.

Finite resources man. If we resign McCourty @ $9 million then you're probably going to be here complaining when Ryan Wendell gets ragdolled, or when Jordan Devey is taking idiotic ineligable downfield penalties. There is always an exchange. I invite you to watch the coaches tape from SB 49, McCourty has a reputation of being somewhat of a deep ball prevention expert. However, if you look at the real tangible impact he's making on deep ball prevention from game to game you'll realize that he's not necessarily the guy who is preventing the long ball, it's the corners. He's lining up 15 yards off the ball, taking a 10-15 yard drop, and cutting off the angle in the event of a deep catch. Harmon looks equally as efficient in the same role.

McCourty is a great player, but the question is whether or not he contributes $9 million worth of value to the team. It's not like we were an amazing deep pass prevention team last year either.

 

[Fencer]

He's usually playing slot corner. They'll use him to clog the middle and to double crossers as well.

On the Harmon INT he was in the slot, I believe covering Marlon Brown. On the Kearse catch it looked like they were using him as a spy on Wilson, but based on his depth I think they were giving him some space to freelance to try to make a play.

So Arrington is in too and there are dual slot corners? Nothing wrong with that, either because there are a lot of receivers total or because a slot guy might call for a double team.

And yeah -- it's my impression that in some cases he's in a robber role or whatever. That DOES raise some doubts as to the small number of stat-sheet plays he actually made last season.

 

[BelizePats]

I don't see McCourty as a $9 million APY guy. To me he's the guy you love on his first contract, but might hate on his 2nd. If we do that we might regret it similar to the contract we gave to Mayo. McCourty is a solid safety relative to a lot of his peers, probably one of the 3-10 best in the NFL, but his real tangible impact on games from a WAR type perspective is not $9 millon worth. Harrison Smith and ETIII are the only safeties IMO that are. He's solid, but unspectacular. In watching coaches film the vast majority of the time he and Harmon are playing in cover 1 they are virtually indistinguishable. He'll flash some elite range a handful of times each season, but his instincts are not good enough to make a consistent enough impact.

If you're going to pay someone that kind of money you need to be sure he's one of the most important guys in winning you a game. If we're being honest with ourselves he really wasn't this past season. We were unspectacular against the deep pass despite having elite CB's.

This is not me saying that I don't want McCourty back, but his true value lies in the $5.5 to $7 million range not $9 million. If he wants that much lets turn his spot to Harmon, and use some of that money to bring in Franklin/Bolling/Iupati to keep our geriatric QB healthy, improve our run game, and make sure the transition to Jimmy G goes as smoothe as possible.

As a SB champion we have a little more talent than we can sustain over the long term. To me if McCourty is a $9 million player we can't have a defense with Revis, Jones, Hightower, and Collins in a couple of years, and my preference is for all of those guys before McCourty.

Great post and I agree completely with everything you've said here.

 

[Patriots1364life]

I thought we where suppose to have a considerate amount of cap space in 2016

 

[McClusky]

I thought we where suppose to have a considerate amount of cap space in 2016

I think we can create a good chunk of space, and keep most if not all of the major guys, but you always want to be able to enter an off season with options. The more large contracts you put on your books at the same time the less flexibility you have. There is nothing worse than ending an off season by not being good enough, and then having to go into an off season by shedding pieces. The next season you just have a watered down version of your last unsuccssful team. I'm sure if you're a Bruins fan you can relate to this.

 

[varjao]

The problem in this case is that the avg money per year is a very thin line, 7 Mi would be something between low balling and very optimistic scenario, 8 Mi would be optimistic and at the same time it looks fair, 9 Mi would be top of the market and in my point of view a little overpaying.

But, I don't mind paying 2 more Million dollar per year to DMac than what would be a very good deal. We all agree that 7Mi would be a very good deal for the Pats right? The market points to a little over than that so in order to get that deal done DMac would have to give a home town discount. I would even say it's a little unrealistic. I believe Dmac is a nice guy and wants to stay but let's forgive that for a moment and assume he would pull a Revis and iron hand to get every penny he can get. In this case I don't think 7 Mi would be enough. Someone will pay at least 8.

So if we all agree that 7 Mi is a very good deal, then if we pay 9 and he doesn't get to live the expectations of this amount of money but plays like he's been playing so far, I don't mind at all paying a little more because in the end he is making plays and other teams will concern about him.

Same thing with Revis. I believe we all agree 14 Mi doesn't get it done, or being a little optimistic it starts there period. At the same time some believe 16 is too much. I say, pay the bloody 16 if it is his number.

What I do mind is giving a new contract of 2 Mi/ year for Slater who is not even our best ST player in kickoff/punt returns anymore or giving Cannon that contract. I'm also worried with Gostkowski deal. 1 extra Mi per year in the kickers league is a lot and if he leaves for peanuts and we keep Slater making 2 Mi I'll be very upset.

 

[mgteich]

I thought we where suppose to have a considerate amount of cap space in 2016

Nope.

The following add considerably to the 2016 cap number that Miguel has posted.
1) Only 32 players are included. Even minimum cost players add $16M.
2) If signed to a long-term deal, McCourty and Revis would likely add $23M.
3) If signed to a long-term deal, Solder would add another $8M.
4) Hightower will be in his 5th year contract, an increase of about $5M.
5) Jones will be in his 5th year contract, an increase of about $5M.
6) This year's rookies will add about 3M.

TOTAL - $60M in additional to what's there now

IN ADDITION
7) To the degree that player are restructured, keeping their compensation the same, cap money would be reduced in 2015, but would INCREASE the cap charges in 2016. These restructures might include any of the following: Brady, Gronkowski, Arrington, and Browner.

These will reduce the 2016 number
8) Wilfork will likely count for $0.
9) Amendola's number will be greatly reduced (or the amount for his replacement)
10) Mayo's number might be less, must some money from 2015 is likely to be moved into 2016.

 

[Fencer]

but would INCREASE the cap in 2016.

Typo alert: You meant something like "cap charges".

 

[JackBauer]

which led to us over paying guys like Amendola, Arrington, and Mayo

How was Mayo overpaid?

 

[JackBauer]

Great post and I agree completely with everything you've said here.

You agree with the chap who calls McCourty both "great" and "solid, but unspectacular"?

 

[McClusky]

How was Mayo overpaid?

The nature of his contract extension. It was done with 2 years left on his rookie deal which has helped spread out his cap hits a little better, but in terms of new money it was pretty sizeable for a guy who already was making decent coin as the former #10 overall pick. I think at that point in his career even before injury Jerod Mayo wasn't seen as the cream of the crop of ILBs, but he got paid the 2nd best contract ever for an ILB. Granted the ILB position wasn't as strong collectively then as it is now in the league, but I remember being shocked at the time by the size of the deal. Now in relation to his peers the contract looks even worse.

 

[McClusky]

You agree with the chap who calls McCourty both "great" and "solid, but unspectacular"?

I've made like 30 posts in this thread, terminology wise I may have varied a bit, but my position throughout all of this has been quite consistent.

 

[JackBauer]

I think at that point in his career even before injury Jerod Mayo wasn't seen as the cream of the crop of ILBs

I would disagree with that. At the time the contract was signed, Mayo was a top-5 ILB in the league.

 

[JackBauer]

I've made like 30 posts in this thread, terminology wise I may have varied a bit, but my position throughout all of this has been quite consistent.

I don't know how you can justify claiming a "great" safety is worth 5.5-7mm. If you think he isn't great but rather "solid, but unspectacular" then that's all well and good.

 

[McClusky]

I don't know how you can justify claiming a "great" safety is worth 5.5-7mm. If you think he isn't great but rather "solid, but unspectacular" then that's all well and good.

Someone can be great relative to their peers, but solid and unspectacular in overall impact. Those 2 are not mutually exclusive. Devin McCourty has great athleticism for a free safety, can bump down and play man coverage, and is a solid tackler. Those 3 things in today's safety environment make him one of the 3-10 best safeties in the league. However, being one of the best safeties does not in itself make someone an elite player. The way the Pats use their safeties, and the amount of quality players at other defensive positions makes Devin McCourty a solid but unspectacular defender. ETIII and Harrison Smith are really the only safeties I'd give that moniker.

The Pats due to the presence of a viable substitute on their roster, other needs, and cap restrictions should place a different value on McCourty than a team like the Jets or the Bears would. Just because someone may be worth $9 million to another team does not mean that is their value to the Pats. Paying Market price for a guy you don't need to pay market price for doesn't make sense to me.

I would disagree with that. At the time the contract was signed, Mayo was a top-5 ILB in the league.

I would argue that a lot of what I've been saying about McCourty would apply to Mayo circa 2012 as well. The difference would be that McCourty is an impending FA and Mayo had plenty of time left on his contract. Mayo was probably a more important piece to the Pats then than McCourty is now though.

 

[JackBauer]

Someone can be great relative to their peers, but solid and unspectacular in overall impact. Those 2 are not mutually exclusive. Devin McCourty has great athleticism for a free safety, can bump down and play man coverage, and is a solid tackler. Those 3 things in today's safety environment make him one of the 3-10 best safeties in the league. However, being one of the best safeties does not in itself make someone an elite player. The way the Pats use their safeties, and the amount of quality players at other defensive positions makes Devin McCourty a solid but unspectacular defender. ETIII and Harrison Smith are really the only safeties I'd give that moniker.

OK. Then we simply have a fundamental disagreement, both on your assessment of McCourty's impact, and on your relative greatness yet solid and unspectacular impact formulation. On the latter, I really only see this applying (to any appreciable extent) with skill position players, or where players are forced into positions and/or schemes that are mismatched to their skill set. I don't see either applying in McCourty's case:

Bill Belichick has really figured out how to deploy his safeties this season. Devin McCourty can do everything, so against the Lions, he was playing deep, covering 1-on-1 and even rushing the QB on two snaps. When McCourty is helping out over the top, opposing QBs don’t even look his way.

http://nesn.com/2014/11/patriots-film-review-patrick-chung-devin-mccourty-being-used-perfectly/

McCourty is developing into a safety that must be accounted for in a game plan. His reaction time, range, closing speed and ball skills are all incredible assets that make him one of the best deep safeties in football.

It helps that he is a perfect safety for the Patriots defense because of his ability to read and react, but it's been a long journey for McCourty to land in "perfect safety" territory, and he's put in a lot of hard work to get there.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1848925-devin-mccourty-developing-into-premier-nfl-safety

On impact:

In fact, during the 2014 season, opposing offenses only attempted 15 passes to the deep middle of the field on McCourty and other Patriot safeties -- good for sixth best in the NFL -- and only nine were completed.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/1/...atriots-defense-darelle-revis-brandon-browner

So, not only is McCourty elite relative to his peers, but he's a perfect fit for the Patriots defense, as BB and Brady have acknowledged. He's got elite ball skills, he's versatile, he's durable, he's a leader of the defense, and, I would argue (contra your argument above) that surrounding defenders benefit more from playing around him (I'm looking at you, Patrick Chung).

I would argue that a lot of what I've been saying about McCourty would apply to Mayo circa 2012 as well.

Maybe. But since I don't buy your McCourty arguments, I don't/wouldn't buy your Mayo arguments either.