Playoff Seedings after Game 11, Week 12 victory vs Denver

[Fencer]

It's pretty simple this week:

• The Pats are a game behind the AFC West leader.
• The Pats are a game ahead of the other divisional leaders.
• The Pats are 3 games ahead of division rivals.

All this is with 5 games to go.

One slightly tricky point: With 4 games to go, the Pats definitely will still be behind the AFC West leader.

Denver and KC are of course playing next week. Indy still has games with KC and Cincy. Other than that, the toughest opponents on the AFC contenders' schedules seem to be in the Baltimore/San Diego range of quality.

 

[Disco Volante]

With a best case scenario of the Pats winning out (which they will be favored to), then two simply explained paths to the #1 seed would be...

-Chiefs win vs Broncos
-Chiefs lose one more AFC game (@ Raiders, vs Colts, @ Chargers)
*Patriots (13-3) win conference record tie-breaker with Chiefs*

or

-Broncos win @ Chiefs
-Broncos lose one more game (vs Titans, vs Chargers, @ Texans, @ Raiders)
*Patriots (13-3) win head-to-head tie-breaker with Broncos*

 

[Ozymandias]

They control their destiny for sure with regard to the #2 seed. Win out and they get that spot no matter what. They gotta take care of business before they start worrying about what everyone else is doing.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

Only game that still gives me a little concern is @ Baltimore.

I know they're a different team now, I just still hate playing them.

I hope that game gets flexed out of the Sunday night spot, home-field advantage isn't as strong during a day game as it is during a nationally broadcasted, prime-time night game.

Not sure what will be protected but...

Saints @ Panthers
Colts @ Chiefs
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Bears @ Eagles
Steelers @ Packers

could be potentially flexed up games that week

 

[Gumby]

With a best case scenario of the Pats winning out (which they will be favored to), then two simply explained paths to the #1 seed would be...

-Chiefs win vs Broncos
-Chiefs lose one more AFC game (@ Raiders, vs Colts, @ Chargers)
*Patriots (13-3) win conference record tie-breaker with Chiefs*

or

-Broncos win @ Chiefs
-Broncos lose one more game (vs Titans, vs Chargers, @ Texans, @ Raiders)
*Patriots (13-3) win head-to-head tie-breaker with Broncos*

I think without going entirely into the common opponents (Den, Clev, Hou, Buff - I think) and conf record permutations (Patriots 5-2 w/ 5 to play // Chiefs 6-2 w/ 4 to play) there is also a 3rd way to the 1 seed:

Broncos win @ Chiefs
Broncos lose two more ceding the Div back to chiefs.
Chiefs lose conf (9-3 vs 10-2 patriots) and common-oppon tiebreakers to Patriots

Heck there is even OPTION 4: Start the playoffs as the 2 seed and if the 6/5/4 seed beats Denver at home in Division Champ week; then 2 seed becomes the new #1.

in any event; lots of football left to play. Just points out a reality; losing in Nov-Dec hurts.

 

[Kulko]

With a best case scenario of the Pats winning out (which they will be favored to), then two simply explained paths to the #1 seed would be...

-Chiefs win vs Broncos
-Chiefs lose one more AFC game (@ Raiders, vs Colts, @ Chargers)
*Patriots (13-3) win conference record tie-breaker with Chiefs*

or

-Broncos win @ Chiefs
-Broncos lose one more game (vs Titans, vs Chargers, @ Texans, @ Raiders)
*Patriots (13-3) win head-to-head tie-breaker with Broncos*

It doesnt matter which game the Chiefs lose as long as we end up tied, and we winn out.

Scen 1: Pats 13-3 KC 13-3 Den 12-4 or worse:
AFC record Pats 10-2 KC 10-2 or worse.
Common Games Pats 5-0 KC 4-1 or worse.

Scen 2: Pats 13-3 Den 13-3 KC 12-4 or worse
Pats over Den on H2H

Scen 3ats 13-3 KC 13-3 Den 13-3
Denver beats KC on Divisional record
Pats beat Den on H2H.

So we need one loss by the winner of next weeks game in order to control our own Destiny.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Let's go Chiefs!!

Denver and KC are both 9-2 and tied at the top of the AFC West. We're 8-3 on top of the East(broken record). I think it's much more likely that KC will lose one of their last 4. Or more. Than Denver. I think Denver will win out if they beat KC. SD being the toughest opponent. But, it's at Mile High. KC has a couple of tough games; at Oak, Indy and at SD.
No sure thing we win out either. But, we will be favored in our last 5 games. The reason. If the winner of that division finishes 13-3. And, we finish 13-3. We have the top seed.

Remaining opponents

Pats
at Houston
Cleveland
at Miami
at Baltimore
Buffalo

KC
Denver
at Washington
at Oakland
Indy
at San Diego

Denver
at KC
Tennessee
San Diego
at Houston
at Oakland

 

[upstater1]

Re: Let's go Chiefs!!

I have to say the ending of the Jets game makes me sick right now.

The Carolina game stung but last second plays are iffy.

The Jets pushing call killed the Patriots for a key win that could mean home-field. I'll be thinking about that because I tend to think about such things.

 

[MassPats38]

Re: Let's go Chiefs!!

Sorry, man. Wishful thinking. After watching KC yesterday, they appear to be a team that learned how to lose and recalled that was what it was supposed to do in the first place.

I would put the Chargers, Titans or Texans as more likely upsets. Every now and then, the Texans appear to remember they weren't supposed to be awful.

In the end, worrying about traveling to Denver in the playoffs is only valid if the Broncos can win a playoff game. Not worth worrying about at this point.

 

[SalemPats]

Re: Let's go Chiefs!!

I'll be happy with a 1st round bye even if we're the #2 seed.

 

[everlong]

Only game that still gives me a little concern is @ Baltimore.

Even in 2007 when they totally sucked I hated going to Miami. It never easy down there. 2004 they sucked and that was one of the Pats two losses. Living through the losing streaks down there of the 70's and 80's I just never take that one for granted.

 

[everlong]

Re: Let's go Chiefs!!

Remaining opponents

Pats
at Houston
Cleveland
at Miami
at Baltimore
Buffalo

KC
Denver
at Washington
at Oakland
Indy
at San Diego

Denver
at KC
Tennessee
San Diego
at Houston
at Oakland

The Pats best shot is KC knocking off Denver. Hali and Houston are unknown so that doesn't seem likley although the early weather in KC has it warm but with wind gusts into the 20's so they have a puncher's chance. I might give Tenn or SD a fighting chance at home but not in Denver. Houston and the Raiders just suck. So if Denver wins this week I think we'll be locked into the two seed minus somebody else catching Peyton on a windy cold day.

 

[50-yard-line]

Cheering wildly for KC next week. I don't think they can win out. They're not that good.

Denver wins next week and I think we're the #2 seed.

That said, no letdowns, please. The Texans will be looking to beat us like it's their Superbowl. Might be true of Baltimore, too, and NEVER take a game in Miami for granted.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Re: Let's go Chiefs!!

I'm definitely cheering for KC vs. Denver.

Denver's road games after next week are warm weather bad teams (Houston, Oakland)

Plus if KC is #1 seed and we are #2, I'm fine with that since I think we'd match up pretty well with them even if we had to play in Arrowhead. Plus I don't think they get that far, even if #1.

 

[patsinthesnow]

A divisional home game vs. the Bengals without Atkins or the Colts without Wayne. An AFCCG vs. the choke artist or some mediocre team.

I can see the epic superbowl matchup between The master (Brady) and the padawan (Wilson) already. I can see the 4th lombardi.

Keep pushing forward pats!

 

[Ring 6]

It's pretty simple this week:

• The Pats are a game behind the AFC West leader.
• The Pats are a game ahead of the other divisional leaders.
• The Pats are 3 games ahead of division rivals.

All this is with 5 games to go.

One slightly tricky point: With 4 games to go, the Pats definitely will still be behind the AFC West leader.

Denver and KC are of course playing next week. Indy still has games with KC and Cincy. Other than that, the toughest opponents on the AFC contenders' schedules seem to be in the Baltimore/San Diego range of quality.

We cannot clinch the division this week, but with a win, we eliminate all but the winner of the Jet/Fin game. Looks like we clinch next week.

 

[SVN]

As Reiss pointed out today, need to see the focus on the team this weekend. Like last yr we beat up the texans and came out completely flat vs a bad jags team. Cant do that in houston this week.

 

[MossWelkowski]

As Reiss pointed out today, need to see the focus on the team this weekend. Like last yr we beat up the texans and came out completely flat vs a bad jags team. Cant do that in houston this week.

Folks.. What don't you get. We don't want the 1 seed. The one seed plays either KC or Denver in the divisonal. Whoever is the 3 sees will beat the 6 seed.