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Introducing the Bruschi defensive index

Needs a couple of things adding to make it even better:
Weight the stats by importance (points allowed weighted heaviest etc)
Add in strength of opponents into the mix

It's pretty good otherwise.
 
I've been thinking of something similar for a while, just never had the time to put it together. My idea was for two: a simple one similar to Bruschi's but based on three metrics (points, yards turnovers) and then a more complex one that also included other metrics (e.g., third down percentage; red zone efficiency; three and outs; yards per point; DVOA; penalty yards).


The tricky part is pulling points out for defensive scores and special team scores (partly because I don't know where to find that info). The other issue is that you do pull those stats out, but then what happens when a return is brought back inside the ten, inside the 20, etc. and you still include those scores.


There's no one perfect stat, but something like this is long overdue - especially when you consider how long the passer rating stat has been around. I really do not understand why so many analysts rely so heavily on yardage rankings to declare a defense is good or bad; is it because they are simply lazy, or because they think their audience can't comprehend more sophisticated information?
 
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This is pretty simplistic, and doesn't do anything that Defensive DVOA doesn't already do much better. I guess it's better than just evaluating a defense based on yards allowed or what have you, and all of the rankings are objective (so it's not a completely opaque, narrative-adjusted nonsense statistic like QBR), so that's a positive. But I hate ESPN acting like they're breaking new ground here by averaging four 1-32 rankings of pretty common stats together.
 
This is pretty simplistic, and doesn't do anything that Defensive DVOA doesn't already do much better. I guess it's better than just evaluating a defense based on yards allowed or what have you, and all of the rankings are objective (so it's not a completely opaque, narrative-adjusted nonsense statistic like QBR), so that's a positive. But I hate ESPN acting like they're breaking new ground here by averaging four 1-32 rankings of pretty common stats together.

Here's the basic issue.

ESPN's QBR and Football Outsider's DVOA are arguably better measures than passer rating.

But both of them suffer from the flaw that they are not transparent: I can't "play with the numbers" and figure out what Brady's DVOA would be if, say, Amendola had taken that 57-yard pass to the house.

So there's always the pull between limitations versus transparency, and simplicity versus completeness.

Of course it also means we'll likely never run out of stats to argue over.

[ObPostscript: What PFF puts out are not really "stats" in my book.]
 
KC absolutely playing their butts off - big gap between them and the Panthers.

That being said - MNF against the Panthers will be a tall task for the Patriots in a couple of weeks. I hadn't realized their D was playing so well.
 
KC absolutely playing their butts off - big gap between them and the Panthers.

That being said - MNF against the Panthers will be a tall task for the Patriots in a couple of weeks. I hadn't realized their D was playing so well.
The Panthers defense is a lot like the Jets, or at least, it presents alot of the same issues and has the same weakness.

Their front seven is vastly underrated and is easily top 5 in the NFL. Their secondary is pretty average in terms of talent (a lot of UDFA starters), but because of their strong front, they can get away with a lot of freelancing. Their secondary is very opportunistic because of that. They feast off pressure, which their two DEs (Johnson, Hardy) are exceptional at along 2 stout DTs. And Kuechly, to me, is best all around LB in football. The kid is special and he can do it all.

So, I agree, the Patriots will have their hands full with those guys if the Jets game was any indication. Hopefully, they'll carry over same of consistency from the Steelers game onward. Vereen coming back should help mightily as well.
 
Here's the basic issue.

ESPN's QBR and Football Outsider's DVOA are arguably better measures than passer rating.

But both of them suffer from the flaw that they are not transparent: I can't "play with the numbers" and figure out what Brady's DVOA would be if, say, Amendola had taken that 57-yard pass to the house.

So there's always the pull between limitations versus transparency, and simplicity versus completeness.

Of course it also means we'll likely never run out of stats to argue over.

[ObPostscript: What PFF puts out are not really "stats" in my book.]

QBR is clearly driven by narrative, however. The 'situational adjustment' and 'clutch factor' is silly and adding a subjective adjustment to numbers (on top of that, numbers we don't know about) allows you to skew the result in whatever way you want. The classic ESPN narrative is that Tony Romo is a choker, therefore we can adjust Romo's QBR in any way we want to play into the story we want to tell. It's narrative with meaningless numbers made up to drive the story ESPN wants to tell.

On the other hand, DVOA is more complicated, but there is a formula behind it. If a play on X down from X distance goes for X yards it is successful/unsuccessful, and this holds universally. So while the determination of success is subjective, the fact that this applies universally reduces bias, while QBR is biased because the determination of 'clutch factor' and 'situational factor' are made on a case-by-case basis with a human applying a constant discount or multiplier to each case (this may not be true, but I tend to have a very low opinion of ESPN that I think is rather widely shared among knowledgeable sports fans).

It's complicated statistical work, but you could - if you had the inclination and enough statistical chops - probably discover what the adjustment to a team or passer's DVOA would be if a play went for 50 rather than 3 yards as long as you had access to the play-by-play dataset that FO uses and their algorithm for determining play success.

There's a subtle but really important methodological difference there. Passer rating is largely useless not because it's methodologically unsound, but because it's conceptually unsound. It's like talking about today's prices in 1940 dollars. QBR is methodologically unsound. DVOA isn't simple or transparent for a non-stathead (I'm a demographer by trade, I do stats for a living), but it's the best you get in the middle.

I think that this "Bruschi index" is actually quite useful for conceptualizing how good a defense is - I'm taking issue with the fact that ESPN acts like it's groundbreaking to average a bunch of rankings together. Heck, their own fantasy football writers have been doing that for years!

As for PFF (and KC Joyner, who did this kind of stuff before PFF), it's just as bad as QBR. It's almost entirely subjective, riddled with bias, and there's very little explanation of the methodology. I think it's entertaining to read, but FO is the only real methodologically sound advanced NFL metrics site on the web.

I'm also biased because FO posted a column I guest wrote last spring on "the 10 yard ditch" (which, anecdotally, we saw the Patriots fail to score TDs on 1st and Goal from the 10 this past Sunday twice).
 
fyi

This is widely considered to be the strongest measure of passer efficiency amongst analytics types:

Football Glossary and Football Statistics Glossary - Pro-Football-Reference.com

ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). See AY/A. Note that we are now using 20 yards per TD instead of 10, because of research by Chase Stuart at the p-f-r blog.

The origin of these coefficients is from a book entitled "The Hidden Game of Football" by bob Carroll, Pete Palmer and John Thorn written all the way back in 1988. It's still way ahead of it's time I strongly suggest anyone who wants to learn more about the game from an analytical perspective should check it out. http://www.amazon.com/The-Hidden-Game-Football-Carroll/dp/0446514144

As for team efficiency stats, EPA/G and WPA/G at Advanced NFL Stats are the most respected

They even did a special on the Pats improvements this week:

Advanced NFL Stats: Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 9



As you can see, the Patriots are now ensconced in the bad run D/good pass D quadrant, but that's actually an auspicious sign. No Super Bowl champion since the 2008 Steelers have had a negative run defense EPA, and three of the last four champs have fallen into the same quadrant the Pats currently occupy, with the 2011 Giants barely missing.
 
What is nice about the Bruschi index is that it is easily understood and easily used, its lack of sophistication and not controlling for too many variables may be as good an indicator as anything...
 
To a first approximation, only two things matter about the outcome of a drive -- points, and where the other team gets the ball. More precisely, that's the outcome of a drive + (in most cases) a kick. How impressive or sad the outcome is in turn depends in part on where the offensive got the ball.

Hence it's reasonable to want to measure the success of an offense or defense is based simply on where drives stop and where they end. Notes on that begin:

  • This is not at all like measuring total yards. The difference between ending on the 1-yard line and ending on the goal line is more important than the difference between ending on the 1 or ending at midfield.
  • "Ending" is a touchdown, field goal attempt, turnover on downs, regular turnover, or punt. 2 of those clearly define where the opponents get the ball. Evaluating the others involves (in 2 cases) the scoreboard, and in all three cases a range of possible outcomes for a kick.
  • End-of-half drives are special because of time considerations.
  • Per-drive is the better way by far to evaluate performance than per-game.
 
The Panthers defense is a lot like the Jets, or at least, it presents alot of the same issues and has the same weakness.

Their front seven is vastly underrated and is easily top 5 in the NFL. Their secondary is pretty average in terms of talent (a lot of UDFA starters), but because of their strong front, they can get away with a lot of freelancing. Their secondary is very opportunistic because of that. They feast off pressure, which their two DEs (Johnson, Hardy) are exceptional at along 2 stout DTs. And Kuechly, to me, is best all around LB in football. The kid is special and he can do it all.

So, I agree, the Patriots will have their hands full with those guys if the Jets game was any indication. Hopefully, they'll carry over same of consistency from the Steelers game onward. Vereen coming back should help mightily as well.

I live in Durham NC really really REALLY want to go, but it is so expensive. what is my best option for finding cheap tickets (online, or scalpers, and if online, should I wait until last minute to buy, or should I do it now for cheapest seats?).
 
To a first approximation, only two things matter about the outcome of a drive -- points, and where the other team gets the ball. More precisely, that's the outcome of a drive + (in most cases) a kick. How impressive or sad the outcome is in turn depends in part on where the offensive got the ball.

Hence it's reasonable to want to measure the success of an offense or defense is based simply on where drives stop and where they end. Notes on that begin:

  • This is not at all like measuring total yards. The difference between ending on the 1-yard line and ending on the goal line is more important than the difference between ending on the 1 or ending at midfield.
  • "Ending" is a touchdown, field goal attempt, turnover on downs, regular turnover, or punt. 2 of those clearly define where the opponents get the ball. Evaluating the others involves (in 2 cases) the scoreboard, and in all three cases a range of possible outcomes for a kick.
  • End-of-half drives are special because of time considerations.
  • Per-drive is the better way by far to evaluate performance than per-game.

I like this concept (and I certainly agree with the last point - statistical significance is really hard to come by in football if you go per-game), though I have a hard time operationalizing it. The dependent variable is drive outcome, the independent variables are starting position, offensive performance, and defensive performance. The last two are the coefficients you're interested in as measurements on a per-drive basis. You would average and weight this across the season.

It's a complex equation because it's difficult to figure out how you would measure outcome (like you said, some things matter more than others) and performance. But it could be an interesting experiment.
 
I live in Durham NC really really REALLY want to go, but it is so expensive. what is my best option for finding cheap tickets (online, or scalpers, and if online, should I wait until last minute to buy, or should I do it now for cheapest seats?).
I'd say, do it now. Gotta get in when you can. There's no guarantee you'd get them for cheap come gameday anyway.

I expect that it will be a packed house - given that it's a MNF game against a prestigious opponent that the Patriots are.
 
Per-drive is the better way by far to evaluate performance than per-game.

I was thinking yards per play as being a better measuring stick than yards per game - similarly to how yards per carry is better than rushing yards per game, and yards per pass attempt is better than passing yards per game - but yards per drive works just as well; actually with it being a larger number it is probably better.


One other thought: I would really like to see penalties included for the net yardage, instead of just being buried in the box score. In the current setup if a defender commits pass interference to prevent a completion it does not show up in the yardage stats; why? Why should advancing the ball on a completion count, but advancing the ball the same yardage on PI not count for the offense and against the defense? Similarly, why the difference when an offensive lineman commits holding to prevent a sack as opposed to the sack occurring? It's a loss of yardage either way, and should be reflected in the yardage stats accordingly.
 
I think expected yards per drive (or expected yards per play, or expected points per drive) based on situation, adjusted for defense/offense is probably an interesting way to look at it. The Markov chain models would be a good start for probability of a given drive ending a certain way - performance against that expected probability would determine how good or bad an offense or defense actually is.

One other thought: I would really like to see penalties included for the net yardage, instead of just being buried in the box score. In the current setup if a defender commits pass interference to prevent a completion it does not show up in the yardage stats; why? Why should advancing the ball on a completion count, but advancing the ball the same yardage on PI not count for the offense and against the defense? Similarly, why the difference when an offensive lineman commits holding to prevent a sack as opposed to the sack occurring? It's a loss of yardage either way, and should be reflected in the yardage stats accordingly.

Someone (PFF?) has a pass rusher rating that takes into account sacks, pressures, and holdings drawn, among others. It's less opaque than their normal ratings, too. I think there are player ratings that take into account defensive pass interferences drawn, as well.
 
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Mark Morse
2 weeks ago
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