Training Camp Thread 8/13/2013

[Sicilian]

I'm detecting this as sarcasm so here goes:

Andre Johnson had 16 catches on 21 targets for 190 yards in two games against us last year. That would put him on pace for a 1520 yard season. He had 1598 yards last year, so he had two of his top performances against us.

*yawn* Next.

Actually, if his pace based on games against the Pats is less than his total yards, that means the Pats technically did BETTER against him than the average NFL team last year. So at worst you can say the Pats were middle of the pack defending AJ (even if you ignore all context of the receptions).

 

[Rob0729]

It's kinda dumb that you play teams in the preseason that you're going to play in the regular season. You'd think they would have changed that. Maybe it doesn't matter all that much in the end I guess.

I think if Belichick and Schiano weren't so close, it would be an issue.

 

[manxman2601]

Training camp stock report: Vincent Jackson victimizes Patriots defensive backs - Going Deep - Boston.com

 

[VrabelJr]

Actually, if his pace based on games against the Pats is less than his total yards, that means the Pats technically did BETTER against him than the average NFL team last year. So at worst you can say the Pats were middle of the pack defending AJ (even if you ignore all context of the receptions).

Your argument makes sense if you know nothing about standard deviation and variance.

 

[Fixit]

Your argument makes sense if you know nothing about standard deviation and variance.

So go ahead and mathematically illustrate how allowing AJ 95 yards/game is worse than allowing his actual game average of a hair shy of 100.

I guess we can continue to discount that most of his yards and catches were of the inconsequential variety, as well.

 

[Sicilian]

Your argument makes sense if you know nothing about standard deviation and variance.

Ok, how about this. Per Andre's game log, in the 16 games not played against the Patriots, 7 teams gave up more yards than the Pats, 9 gave up less. So fine, they are slightly below average covering him, by the slimmest possible statistical margin.

Regardless, that's still cold statistics with no context.

 

[PatsGuy]

It's kinda dumb that you play teams in the preseason that you're going to play in the regular season. You'd think they would have changed that. Maybe it doesn't matter all that much in the end I guess.

The Pats went to Tampa last year for joint scrimmages. Tampa is returning the favor. I suspect you'll c the Eagles up here next year

 

[JMC00]

No, I'm basing it on WRs running wild against our secondary last year. I haven't seen much improvement. Same with the pass rush, where is it going to come from. Not saying everybody can't improve, but it'll improve from poor to average.

See the part where you say, "I haven't seen much improvement", what are you basing it on? It can't be on practices, if you've even been to any because there's just no way to make that assessment from practice. Especially with how good the Pats offensive line may be.

So it has to be from the first preseason game, where the starting defense without McCourty and Dennard played vanilla for 3 series and yet in one of them Kelly and Jones got to the QB and caused a turnover.

Are you basing it on the Jackson TD? The one where had it been a regular season maybe McCourty is helping Talib on Jackson.

Here are the 3 drives that the starting defense was on
6 plays- 77 yards- TD
4 plays- 24 yards- Punt
2 plays- 0 yards- Strip Sack Recovery

I'm just not getting the "from what i've seen" angle you are coming from. Even the greatest passing rushing teams go plays and series without getting any pressure.

Yet here you are after the first preseason game making a definitive statement based on the defense just getting their toes wet for the first time this season but yet still ending one of the Eagles drives by getting pressure and causing a turnover.

 

[BTTA]

I wasn't aware we were looking at total team points when looking at how WRs of a certain prototype have consistently had success against us.

The analysis is fatally flawed if you don't look at game circumstances, like points, who had the lead when, and how the offense did overall.

Belichick always takes away certain things. If the opposing team's offense is largely shut down, and they don't score many points, and we score a ton of points, he couldn't care less how many yards or catches an opposing WR has. And neither should we.

 

[BTTA]

So go ahead and mathematically illustrate how allowing AJ 95 yards/game is worse than allowing his actual game average of a hair shy of 100.

I guess we can continue to discount that most of his yards and catches were of the inconsequential variety, as well.

Your effort is appreciated here, but you are pushing a wheelbarrow full of gravel up a sand dune. The intersection of fantasy football and an instant gratification culture has ruined the minds of some sports fans. Or not allowed them to develop at all.

 

[TruthSeeker]

See the part where you say "you haven't seen much improvement" what are you basing it on? It can't be on practices, if you've even been to any because there's just no way to make that assessment from practice.

So it has to be from the first preseason game, where the starting defense without McCourty and Dennard played vanilla for a 3 series and yet in one of them Kelly and Jones got to the QB and caused a turnover.

Are you basing it on the Jackson TD? The one where had it been a regular season maybe McCourty is helping Talib on Jackson.

Here are the 3 drives that the starting defense was on
6 plays- 77 yards- TD
4 plays- 24 yards- Punt
2 plays- 6 yards- Strip Sack Recovery

I'm just not getting the "from what i've seen" angle you are coming from. Even the greatest passing rushing teams go plays and series without getting any pressure.

Yet here you are after the first preseason game making a definitive statement based on the defense just getting their toes wet for the first time this season but yet still ending one of the Eagles drives by getting pressure and causing a turnover.

I'm HOPING the Pat's secondary is better than last year, I'm an optimist, but also a realist. All I've heard this training camp is how great the Pat's WR's (rookies and UFAs included) looked against their own secondary, how great Philly looked against our secondary, and now we are hearing VJax is ripping them apart. Sounds a lot like last year. I'd like to hear that our guys are sticking to the receivers like glue, but I haven't heard that yet. The weakest part of our team, until proven otherwise, is our secondary AND lack of pass rush. Hopefully we'll see HUGE improvements in both departments.

 

[BTTA]

It becomes clear from these joint practices that the offense is simply trying to get down the timing and positioning of the passing game. Because everything defensively is so vanilla, when this timing and positioning is working well, the defensive backs are at a huge disadvantage and will always end up giving up more plays than they will in the regular season. And we, as onlookers who crave football and insight into how our teams will do when the real games begin, give the results of these activities much more weight than is warranted. And then get in heated exchanges about our interpretations.

Every year, like swallows to Capistrano.

 

[manxman2601]

Bedard:

Pats: Amendola has taken Welker's role as being uncoverable vs. man cov. WR Thompkins looks like real deal to me.

https://twitter.com/GregABedard/status/367370100359176192

Pats: All the kids are making progress. Only pertinent question: in playoffs, when teams double Amendola, Gronk, can they win 1-1?

https://twitter.com/GregABedard/status/367370852007821312

Pats: Jamie Collins had a rough time in coverage, and the safety spot is still a mess, especially when McCourty moves to corner.

https://twitter.com/GregABedard/status/367371371791130624

 

[Deus Irae]

I wasn't aware we were looking at total team points when looking at how WRs of a certain prototype have consistently had success against us.

You weren't aware that it's important to take game conditions into account when noting success/failure in those games?

 

[borg]

And thanks for being the arrogant douche doom and gloomer that you are. You make it so much easier to treat you like the joke that you are when you act like this.

I try to address your obvious swipe at me with respect and give a rational argument why you may be wrong and you bring the intelligence of this board down with arrogant sarcasm that just wasted bandwidth.

The funny thing is that you talk as if you know for a fact what is going to happen week 3 when there are few people on this board more wrong, more often than you.

Sorry pal...its not always about you. I was responding to Vrabel Jr, basically agreeing with him. Never even read your post.
As far as your wonderful "rational argument"....please....The "you don't know the future so you could be wrong" is fascinating analysis. Keep up the quality. In the future, If I quote you followed by a reply, then that is a pretty clear indication that I was addressing you. Projecting that every post must be about you will drive you nuts.
As far as the "there are few people on this board more wrong, more often than you" ...please enlighten me on my errors....now that would be a post of yours that might have some value beyond the usual pom poms and "you don't know the future" garble.

 

[Fixit]

Your effort is appreciated here, but you are pushing a wheelbarrow full of gravel up a sand dune.

Hey, that sounds almost impossi-

Waaaaait a second ...

 

[VrabelJr]

You weren't aware that it's important to take game conditions into account when noting success/failure in those games?

Of course it is. But I don't have the time or computing power to model that.

 

[Demosthenes]

Close to an 80% completion rate on the main aerial threat. Teams with premium RBs get BB's attention first. He then plays the odds game forcing teams to string completions together. Exactly why I believe V Jax will light up the NE secondary like the old days when cry baby Tomlinson got the attention and V Jax abused the smurfs.

And here I am thinking that the way to win football games is to limit the other team's scoring while maximizing your own. Silly, silly me.

Someone fire off a message to bill and explain to him that the way to make it to the playoffs is to concentrate on keeping a receiver's stat line under his average.

 

[JackBauer]

Bedard:

Bedard's also high on Dobson/Sudfeld, less so on Blount.

 

[Deus Irae]

Of course it is. But I don't have the time or computing power to model that.

Then you've got nothing, really. Game one is a perfect example of that. The score was already 21-0 Patriots at the 11:04 mark of the second quarter.