Can we talk WR for a bit?

[manxman2601]

Top Draft Prospect WR drop rate - min 40 targets

Red=boundary WR; Blue=slot type receiver
---player------------targets--------drop rate
Aaron Dobson .........92................0
Ace Sanders............73................0
Quinton Patton.......158................0.9
Tavon Austin.........145.................2.6
C. Patterson...........84..................4.2
Keenan Allen..........89..................4.7
Stedman Bailey......148.................5.0
Robert Woods........118.................5.0
Ryan Swope..........102.................5.3
T. Williams............151.................5.8
Deandre Hopkins....128.................5.8

Wheaton...............141.................8.2

Anything less than 6% is very good. Less than 2% shows incredible hands and concentration.
Dobson and Ace Sanders at 0% is other worldly. I'm surprised Hopkins came in with such a high drop rate; even more surprised Patterson's wasn't far higher.

Justin Hunter didn't make the top 15 w/ a 12% drop rate. Not good but he's still a good prospect in the late 2nd or 3rd round range.

I've read several places Robert Woods' ankle/foot problem isn't fully rehabbed and may take some time in the season to heal.

I'd love to get 1 boundary guy and 1 slot type guy (assuming Sanders doesn't get signed). We all have our favorites but in truth there's not a bad receiver mentioned above depending on where they're drafted. But they have to be drafted...please.

Can I ask what the source for this is please? If it's your own work, then bravo! (but could you go into a little bit more detail).

 

[EwanSellars]

Quinton Patton :rocker: :thumb:

 

[Snake Eyes]

Quinton Patton :rocker: :thumb:

He's my official WR binkie of this class.

 

[yopats]

I would be happy with re-signing Edleman and then drafting

Aaron Dobson in the second round and waiting to see if Mark Harrison is available in the 7th.. my .02

 

[EwanSellars]

He's my official WR binkie of this class.

for me its patton and then wheaton but patton is by far my favorite

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Can I ask what the source for this is please? If it's your own work, then bravo! (but could you go into a little bit more detail).

This looks like the basic source but there were a few more than there are here that must have been from a longer list at the source :

https://twitter.com/JPSTATS/status/317484706142752769/photo/1

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Top Draft Prospect WR drop rate - min 40 targets

Red=boundary WR; Blue=slot type receiver
---player------------targets--------drop rate
Aaron Dobson .........92................0
Ace Sanders............73................0
Quinton Patton.......158................0.9
Tavon Austin.........145.................2.6
C. Patterson...........84..................4.2
Keenan Allen..........89..................4.7
Stedman Bailey......148.................5.0
Robert Woods........118.................5.0
Ryan Swope..........102.................5.3
T. Williams............151.................5.8
Deandre Hopkins....128.................5.8

Wheaton...............141.................8.2

Anything less than 6% is very good. Less than 2% shows incredible hands and concentration.
Dobson and Ace Sanders at 0% is other worldly. I'm surprised Hopkins came in with such a high drop rate; even more surprised Patterson's wasn't far higher.

Justin Hunter didn't make the top 15 w/ a 12% drop rate. Not good but he's still a good prospect in the late 2nd or 3rd round range.

I've read several places Robert Woods' ankle/foot problem isn't fully rehabbed and may take some time in the season to heal.

I'd love to get 1 boundary guy and 1 slot type guy (assuming Sanders doesn't get signed). We all have our favorites but in truth there's not a bad receiver mentioned above depending on where they're drafted. But they have to be drafted...please.

This is great. However, it is important to put all of this in context. Dobson doesn't drop anything, but has a low YPC and only catches about 62% of the passes thrown his way, despite the fact that his QB had a 69.5 completion percentage and that he never drops the ball.

Wheaton drops more, but he averages far more yards per catch and gets open more easily. He has a catch rate of 64.5% where his QB's ( the Beavers used two) only complete 62.5 % of their passes. Even with his drops, he gets open better than the rest the guys on his team.

What's more important? I don't have the answer.

 

[Snake Eyes]

This is great. However, it is important to put all of this in context. Dobson doesn't drop anything, but has a low YPC and only catches about 62% of the passes thrown his way, despite the fact that his QB had a 69.5 completion percentage and that he never drops the ball.

Wheaton drops more, but he averages far more yards per catch and gets open more easily. He has a catch rate of 64.5% where his QB's ( the Beavers used two) only complete 62.5 % of their passes. Even with his drops, he gets open better than the rest the guys on his team.

What's more important? I don't have the answer.

How much good does getting open do if you can't reliably catch the ball?

 

[manxman2601]

How much good does getting open do if you can't reliably catch the ball?

It's misleading though. Receivers like Patton and Austin run a lot of screens - of course they're going to catch those. Wheaton runs a much wider route tree than those receivers so the catches will be harder. Throw in the quality of QB's and the level of defensive play (congested catches) and you can't make a judgement based on this stat alone. Welker had a high drop rate - he was still a damn good receiver.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

How much good does getting open do if you can't reliably catch the ball?

Well, yes, Wheaton is more likely to drop the ball. However, he also more likely to catch it, every time you throw it to him, and do more with it.

He catches it more often and at a higher percentage and for more YPC than Dobson- even when add in the incompletions with the drops. So, he more reliably catches balls thrown to him than Dobson, although he will make you want to throw your remote at the TV more often.

No metric is perfect. Looks at drop percentage without a larger context is flawed.

 

[manxman2601]

Wheaton is often compared to Mike Wallace, but I feel like that comp. only does his speed justice. I see more of a young Chad Johnson.

https://twitter.com/ryanlownes/status/318395031952175107


As long as he never becomes the old Chad Johnson

Edit: Also

Markus Wheaton probably tops the list of "my guys" this year. Some see a #2/3 WR, but I envision him becoming a big-time player in the NFL.

https://twitter.com/ryanlownes/status/318393336807440385

Re: Wheaton. I see an NFL caliber athlete (with speed, burst, quickness) who already understands some of the finer points of the position.

 

[patsfaninpa]

for me its patton and then wheaton but patton is by far my favorite

I want both. Trade down from 29 for a team wanting to move up for a qb. Take Wheaton with that early 2nd and Patton at 59.

 

[EwanSellars]

i would love both as well trade down from 29 for a 2nd and 3rd and then trade our 2 thirds for a 2nd and then we can get wheaton, patton and someone like carradine, hankins, banks etc.

 

[chevss454]

Can I ask what the source for this is please? If it's your own work, then bravo! (but could you go into a little bit more detail).

Sorry, haven't been on the board for a bit. I'd like to say I charted every game of every player for these calculations (although I have watched a heck of a lot of games while zeroing in on WRs) but I got that here:

https://twitter.com/JPSTATS/status/317484706142752769/photo/1

Here's another table that may interest you:

https://twitter.com/JPSTATS/status/317759416902496257/photo/1

As I said, I've watched a ton of games played by the top 20-25 WRs in this draft keeping notes along the way. I don't have time to get into profiling them right now since I want to catch up on posts I've missed while I was away.

I have finished my WR rankings & here are my top 10 WR rankings from a purely Pats perspective. I will profile them individually 1 or 2 a day leading up to draft day.

1. Cordarelle Patterson (??s galore but the most jaw-dropping talent in yrs)
2. Keenan Allen (Wow playmaker & technically very good)
3. Markus Wheaton (Best vs press b/c of strength & technically superior to everyone else here. Best deep ball WR here. Gets separation w/ ball in the air w/out pushing off. Strong, tough, physical. I hope we get this guy)
4. Tavon Austin (there is substance behind the hype)
5. DeAndre Hopkins (Best at going up for the ball, technically v. good but least explosive of the top 5)
6. Ryan Swope (here's the first surprise for some of you - Quick enough for slot; fast & physical enough for outside. Tough as nails)
7. Stedman Bailey (here's the second suprise - not 'best' in any area but a tough physical guy who makes catches anywhere you put him. He isn't just for slot)
8. Robert Woods (average athleticism but very smart and great vision)
9. Da'Rick Rogers (passed all 10 drug tests at Tenn. Tech. if not for suspension, he's top 5)
10. Quenton Patton (physical & quick but inconsistent catching in traffic & YAC is below average)

BTW, does anyone besides me think slot receiver sounds sexy as hell?


These are the WRs the Pats have had contact with so far (from what we know).

Wide Receivers
Deandre Hopkins, WR, Clemson (PW, C)
Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia (PW)
Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State (PW)
Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia (PW)
Courtney Gardner, WR, Sierra (PW)
Keenan Davis, WR, Iowa (PW)
Charles Johnson, WR, Grand Valley State (PW)
Reshad Ross, WR, Arizona State (PW)
Anthony Amos, Middle Tennessee State (PW)
Tyrone Goard, WR, Eastern Kentucky (PW)
Robert Woods, WR, USC (C)
Quinton Patton, WR, La Tech (C)
Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee (C)

edit: Keenan Allen has been injured and couldn't work out at the Combine or Cal's Pro Day. He will work out a wk from today in his home town in NC. I'm very interested to see how he does & hope to hell he does well. One interesting note on Allen I found while researching him: he originally committed to Alabama but soon learned Saban wanted him to switch from WR to FS. He quickly de-committed and committed to Cal. His QB was his half brother who also got a scholarship to Cal. He was awful so take that into consideration when judging Allen.


I noticed early in this thread some are interested in comparisons. I'll put mine up later this am as I have no time now.

 

[PATSNUTme]

If the Patriots stay at #29 and are going to take a WR then I hope it will be Allen. If they trade out of #29, depending on how far they trade into the 2nd then Allen might still be there.

But Dobson would be another late 2nd round fit for the Patriots. I'm hoping that they stay away from Tavon Austin. He could be a very good pro but there are 3rd round options for his size adn type of receiver.

 

[chevss454]

If the Patriots stay at #29 and are going to take a WR then I hope it will be Allen. If they trade out of #29, depending on how far they trade into the 2nd then Allen might still be there.

But Dobson would be another late 2nd round fit for the Patriots. I'm hoping that they stay away from Tavon Austin. He could be a very good pro but there are 3rd round options for his size adn type of receiver.

I agree wholeheartedly on Keenan Allen but I think Patterson, Allen and Austin are all off the board by the time the Pats draft at 29.

I think Dobson will be a 3rd or 4th round guy despite McShay mocking him to the Pats in the 2nd round. The trouble with Dobson is he entered college at 5'11", 180 lbs. Unfortunately he still tries to make plays as if he were still 5'11" even though he's 6'3". Once he realizes he's a bigger receiver who can play with a bigger receiver's skill set he can be good. As it is, he tries to out quick defenders as if he were still a normal sized player. His mind still tells him to do things his taller body can't do and that leaves you scratching your head. He'll try quick cut backs & 180 degree changes of direction to go back across the field as if he's Cordarelle Patterson...or Percy Harvin. He can't physically do those things anymore.

Dobson is capable of making highlight quality catches. Once he gets accustomed to his new tall self ( I figure 2 years) he can have the upside to become a good #2 receiver. I like Dobson just fine but, to put things in perspective, he's in the 15-20 range for WRs in this draft for me.

Maybe this will help --> I compare Muhsin Muhammed to Dobson in the NFL & that's not bad at all. More to come.

 

[midwestpatsfan]

Great stuff from everyone so far.

 

[IllegalContact]

so what would be the problem with the concept of drafting both hopkins and swope? guys who get it and create enough of a deep threat to keep things going the way the pats would like them.....use the other pick on defense....BPA

1 - Deandre Hopkins
2 - OLB/DE Jamie Collins
3 - Ryan Swope

and use what's left for trench guys

 

[chevss454]

Here are my comparisons of draft prospect WRs to NFL players based on my impressions of their play and from reading scouting reports. These comparisons are IF the player meets his potential.

Player............................NFL Comparison

Cordarelle Patterson........a cross of Randy Moss & Dez Bryant
Keenan Allen..................Jerry Rice (Yes I think he's got that potential)
Markus Wheaton.............Greg Jennings or Steve Smith (Car)
Tavon Austin..................Eric Metcalf but w/ a supercharger
DeAndre Hopkins............Keenan McCardell X Hakeem Nicks
Ryan Swope...................Austin Collie w/ toughness of WW
Stedman Bailey..............Derrick Mason at Mason's best (Studman Beastly)
Robert Woods................Early Doucet
Da'Rick Rogers...............Dwayne Bowe
Quinton Patton...............Pierre Garcon
Justin Hunter.................Randy Moss
Terrance Williams...........Braylon Edwards
Mark Harrison................Brandon Marshall
Kenbrell Thompkins........Roddy White
Aaron Dobson................Muhsin Muhammad
Perez Ashford................LaVon Brazil X Victor Cruz
Aaron Mellette...............Anquan Boldin

I have detailed notes I plan to share when time allows.

 

[dales804]

I'm no draft guru so I will ask here: what do you guys think of Terrance Williams from Baylor? Obviously he has good size but are his hands an issue and his route running? Clearly he's a good deep threat.