Is Welker worth $10 million

[IllegalContact]

So spend 8mill on a lesser player who has missed 20 of his teams last 32 games so you can sprend 2 mill on defense? Really?

8M for Amendola? who says?

 

[zipster9]

Everyone...I can't yell this loud enough...is ISN'T about Welker, it's about Hernandez. Welker is worth $10M in a vacuum, there is no question. He is an incredible talent, and we may never see a player like him again. He is one of the toughest players in the NFL, and despite the memories of some bad drops, he is incredibly reliable. Even if he does begin to decline with age, he is still an invaluable player.

But it's about Hernandez. He was clearly playing through an injury this year and wasn't full speed. Give him the offseason to recover and hope he isn't injury prone, and you have a guy who does everything that Welker does- the precise short routes, the screen passes, the occasional downfield threat, the reverse threat. I've said this many times, but if you watch replays, there are so many plays where BOTH Hernandez and Welker are wide open against slower linebacker corps over the middle.

Yes, there are some times when it definitely helps to have both of these guys on the field- no question. The Patriots ARE a better team with both of them, but the overlap in their talents devalues the financial worth of Welker to this offense.

The Patriots realized this last offseason when they tried to phase him out of the offense. Unfortunately, three things happened:

1. Hernandez got hurt.
2. Edelman is not where they needed him to be.
3. Lloyd became Branch II.

So, when you talk about $10M, that money could be better spent elsewhere to turn a weakness into a strength rather than make a strength a little stronger.

The two TE offense that the Patriots run with unique talents like Hernandez and Gronkowski is one of the most unstoppable schemes in the game. But logically, it would make SO MUCH more sense to have a real #1 receiver to take the top off the defense, and I think we would see, believe it or not, an even better offense that is much less prone to being shut down, since not EVERY player will have the same "bread and butter" zone in the middle of the field or on screen passes.

So while I love Wes Welker and respect him as much as any player in Patriots history, I truly believe that unless he takes a huge hometown discount, the Patriots need to do what's best for the team. They invested some big money in Gronk and Hernandez, and they've hitched their wagons to them. Let's hope they can stay healthy, Hernandez can pickup the targets, and we can get either (a) a really good true #1 receiver, or (b) a big upgrade, or several big upgrades on defense.

You just said it. IF Hern does not get hurt, and IF Edelman does not get hurt, and IF Gronk does not get hurt. Well they did this year, as well as last.

That is the key point, about Welker. 18 games this year, 19 games last year. What good is it if you have players who does no play? You need a durable player. That is Welker.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm not saying Hernandez is god, but he returned from a high ankle sprain in the same season and clearly was never close to 100%. Bottom line is, Hernandez is locked up through 2020, is younger than Welker by 11 years. They have hitched their wagon to him, so whether Welker is better right now is irrelevant. Hernandez is a Patriot for a long time, and you can't deny the overlap in their talents.

I can, however, deny that Hernandez somehow makes Welker expendable, which is essentially what your argument boils down to. I'd cut Hernandez tomorrow, if that's what it took to keep Welker. I wouldn't cut Welker to keep Hernandez. The QB is going on 36, not 26, and letting Welker, his best receiver, get away would be folly.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm not saying Hernandez is god, but he returned from a high ankle sprain in the same season and clearly was never close to 100%. Bottom line is, Hernandez is locked up through 2018, is younger than Welker by 8 years. They have hitched their wagon to him, so whether Welker is better right now is irrelevant. Hernandez is a Patriot for a long time, and you can't deny the overlap in their talents.

You only weaken your case by exaggerating.

 

[Boomer B]

We had the 2nd most rushing attempts in the NFL this season.
How do we get better by throwing less to the guy who we are most successful throwing to?
Do we tell him to not get open, or tell Brady to ignore him when he is?

I'm happy McDaniels was more committed to the run this year and I hope he is even more so as Brady ages. The reason we were 2nd in rushing attempts is that we had a lot more plays in general 'cause of the hurry up and turnovers caused by the D. We had more possessions this year.

How do we get better by throwing less to Welker? Well, us throwing a ton of short routes hasn't worked out in the playoffs against the better D's. I'm not pinning anything on Wes but I think we need to make slight changes to the O. I'm all for keeping Wes but not as the main focus. As Rodney Harrison said today the Ravens out muscled the Pats like the Pats used to do to the Colts. I think Belichick needs a WR on the outside who will make the safetys respect the deep ball. I would like to see more of the 2004 O, especially in the playoffs. Run the ball and use play action.

The goal is to win the Super Bowl, not set records for points scored in the regular season.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

They might actually think about running it again!

We might then lead the whole league in rushing touchdowns!

Oh wait. we already do....

 

[DocHoliday]

We simply need to be able to get yards when the cheap free catches aren't happening.

Eg, playing teams that shut down the no huddle and short passing game.

Hernandez is not leaving. This is fact. Whether it not Welker will accept a smaller deal to allow a taller, physical receiver to be brought in is the only question.

 

[naF staP]

I think the Pats sign him with the franchise tag again. That's $11.9 million! For this year and next year they will have paid him a couple million more then they offered him last season for the 2 year contract they wanted in the first place Now, if they are willing to offer a new 2 year contract for say $8 ,million a year they need to jump all over this. Welker as a Patriot for 2 more years is a must. If they don't want 2 years then next year is an absolute must!

A lot of people are down on Welker right now and it makes no sense. He is still the most productive player on the team (outside of Brady of course) and it would be very foolish to try and replace him. Edelman can't do it, he drops more passes and can't get seperation or run routes like Welker can, he can't even adjust to a deep ball. Heck, he can't even stay on the field for a whole season. You can't bring in someone new to fill his spot, it's a complicated position and asking Brady at this stage of his career to try and get on the same page as a new player at that position just makes no sense at all. It won't happen, that position takes time to develop to where Brady feels comfortable with that player. We all seen what happens when Brady isn't comfortable with a receiver, he doesn't go there or look his way.

So you get a 2 year deal done with Welker for lower then the $11.9 million for next year, bring in a legit deep threat, get the running back merry-go-round fixed and it is a legit, high powered offense. All areas of the field will be occupied with a Patriots receiver. Defenses cant defend the entire field!

As for the cap space, these owners are smart people. They have all kinds of ways getting around and fitting players in under the cap. Thats what they do, thats why there are where they are in life!

 

[Brady2Moss]

We simply need to be able to get yards when the cheap free catches aren't happening.

Eg, playing teams that shut down the no huddle and short passing game.

Hernandez is not leaving. This is fact. Whether it not Welker will accept a smaller deal to allow a taller, physical receiver to be brought in is the only question.

All the stuff that bum on Baltimore said about us being a gimmick offense I'm starting to believe is kind of true. When a team lines up with us straight up and punches us in the mouth, we have 0 response and haven't for years. This has to change.

 

[naF staP]

I'm happy McDaniels was more committed to the run this year and I hope he is even more so as Brady ages.

Then they need a featured back. The running back merry-go-round isn't working. Where was Bolden after his suspension? I'm afraid Ridley isn't going to be what we want him to be. For one thing he fumbles. But the bigger issue is he got knocked out last game. And I'm sure he was knocked out cold! You aren't the same after that happens. You get cautious and you get concussions a lot more easily after getting knocked out like that. Sad at such an early stage of his career. If they resign Welker and add a legit deep threat then the running back circus they have going right now can work for what they need them for.

 

[DocHoliday]

Then they need a featured back. The running back merry-go-round isn't working. Where was Bolden after his suspension? I'm afraid Ridley isn't going to be what we want him to be. For one thing he fumbles. But the bigger issue is he got knocked out last game. And I'm sure he was knocked out cold! You aren't the same after that happens. You get cautious and you get concussions a lot more easily after getting knocked out like that. Sad at such an early stage of his career. If they resign Welker and add a legit deep threat then the running back circus they have going right now can work for what they need them for.

Ridley getting a concussion doesn't make him concussion prone.

We have no running back circus.

 

[crowell33]

Welker led the NFL with 15 dropped passes this season. More than any other player in the league. People say that he chokes because of the Super Bowl last season or the big drop in the AFC Championship game this season.

He is not a choker. It has nothing to do with pressure. He drops a ton of balls all year long, even without the pressure.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Welker led the NFL with 15 dropped passes this season. More than any other player in the league. People say that he chokes because of the Super Bowl last season or the big drop in the AFC Championship game this season.

He is not a choker. It has nothing to do with pressure. He drops a ton of balls all year long, even without the pressure.

And how many times was he targeted this year? You are going to lead the NFL in drops if you are targeted 150 times a year compared to 70 times a year. What a stupid stat

Go have bowe or holmes targeted 140 times a year and go see how many drops they will have

 

[naF staP]

Ridley getting a concussion doesn't make him concussion prone.

We have no running back circus.

You are in denial friend. Ridley didn't just get a concussion he got knocked the heck out! Cold!! You bet that makes a person concussion prone.

The Running back situation is a circus. They have no idea who to play, when to play them. You have a running back that has a career day 3 td's and he hardly plays or is included in the game plan the next week, which just happened to be the most important game of the season. That's a circus. It's a running back merry go round for goodness sake. You can't have a consistant running attack when you play them like they do. They are making it more difficult for their own team, not the other team.

 

[naF staP]

And how many times was he targeted this year? You are going to lead the NFL in drops if you are targeted 150 times a year compared to 70 times a year. What a stupid stat

Go have bowe or holmes targeted 140 times a year and go see how many drops they will have

You are right on point with this!

 

[Sciz]

The Running back situation is a circus. They have no idea who to play, when to play them. You have a running back that has a career day 3 td's and he hardly plays or is included in the game plan the next week, which just happened to be the most important game of the season. That's a circus.

He also wasn't part of the gameplan in which he had his 3 TD game

 

[naF staP]

Welker led the NFL with 15 dropped passes this season. More than any other player in the league. People say that he chokes because of the Super Bowl last season or the big drop in the AFC Championship game this season.

He is not a choker. It has nothing to do with pressure. He drops a ton of balls all year long, even without the pressure.

Drops ton of balls! Okay! Get this!!

2012 regular season

Welker was targeted 174 times and he caught 118 passes. He caught 68% of his targets.

Arron Hernandez was targeted 84 times and caught 51 passes. He caught only 61% of his targets.

Megatron was targeted 205 times and caught 122 passes. He caught just 60% of his targets.

Roddy White was targeted 143 times and caught 92 passes. He caught 64% of his passes.

Victor Cruz was targeted 143 times and caught 86 passes. He caught 60% of his targets.

Demaryius Thomas was targeted 141 times and caught 94 passes. He caught 67% of his passes.

Now you tell me this. If Wes Welker drops so many passes why does he lead all these great receivers in target/catch percentages? It's not because of Brady. Brady had a 63% completion percentage. Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan both had 69% completion percentage. Maybe, just maybe Welker doesn't drop as many of his targets as you think he does.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Drops ton of balls! Okay! Get this!!

2012 regular season

Welker was targeted 174 times and he caught 118 passes. He caught 68% of his targets.

Arron Hernandez was targeted 84 times and caught 51 passes. He caught only 61% of his targets.

Megatron was targeted 205 times and caught 122 passes. He caught just 60% of his targets.

Roddy White was targeted 143 times and caught 92 passes. He caught 64% of his passes.

Victor Cruz was targeted 143 times and caught 86 passes. He caught 60% of his targets.

Demaryius Thomas was targeted 141 times and caught 94 passes. He caught 67% of his passes.

Now you tell me this. If Wes Welker drops so many passes why does he lead all these great receivers in target/catch percentages? It's not because of Brady. Brady had a 63% completion percentage. Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan both had 69% completion percentage. Maybe, just maybe Welker doesn't drop as many of his targets as you think he does.

but but..he drops a ton of balls. I wish some people would think before they post

 

[naF staP]

He also wasn't part of the gameplan in which he had his 3 TD game

It doesn't matter! With a day like he had you make him part of the next game plan, don't ya think? And here is the crazy part, they didn't! He steps in, has a day like that you gotta ask why wasn't he part of the original gameplan instead of Woodhead? Why was Woodhead in there if you have a player who can perform like Vereen did? Because it's a circus. They don't know what they have because they have too many backs that they are trying to be cute with. Pick one! Ride him until you can't any longer and if he doesn't perform replace him. Don't start one of them one week and then bench him the next 3 or 4 games and then start him again 3 or 4 weeks later. That is a circus!!

 

[Sciz]

Drops ton of balls! Okay! Get this!!

2012 regular season

Welker was targeted 174 times and he caught 118 passes. He caught 68% of his targets.

Arron Hernandez was targeted 84 times and caught 51 passes. He caught only 61% of his targets.

Megatron was targeted 205 times and caught 122 passes. He caught just 60% of his targets.

Roddy White was targeted 143 times and caught 92 passes. He caught 64% of his passes.

Victor Cruz was targeted 143 times and caught 86 passes. He caught 60% of his targets.

Demaryius Thomas was targeted 141 times and caught 94 passes. He caught 67% of his passes.

Now you tell me this. If Wes Welker drops so many passes why does he lead all these great receivers in target/catch percentages? It's not because of Brady. Brady had a 63% completion percentage. Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan both had 69% completion percentage. Maybe, just maybe Welker doesn't drop as many of his targets as you think he does.

This is a terrible argument. You just argued against Welker's drops by using a stat that doesn't account for drops.

The real explanation for what you're talking about is that all of those other receivers had fewer catchable balls thrown their way, which in most cases can be attributed to them running routes further down the field that are harder for the QB to complete.

Targets = Catches + Drops + Uncatchables
Your argument is that Welker has the most Catches/Targets completely ignores the difference between drops and uncatchable balls.

If you want to make this argument, then you have to take uncatchable balls out of the equation, which is done quite easily by doing Catches/(Catches+Drops).