Rumor: Ryan Mallet to Browns for 6th overall pick

[jsull87]

I'd take swapping our 1st with their 1st and giving them Mallet even.

Even then i can't see him having that much value. Would give us the ability to get a defensive or offensive stud tho.

 

[jsull87]

You do realize that that's essentially getting the Book Value of the #16 Pick, overall, for Mallett, right?? Going from #32 ~ I hope!! ~ all the way to #6?? You think the Browns'd need to sweeten the Deal??

I, personally, would be in pure, existential ecstasy.

Even so...

With an @$$-awful QuarterBack Draft Class upon us, and little or nothing else available in the Trade Market, combined with Mister Lombardi's affinity for young Mallett, his prospectively adept fit for their System, and a great deal of trust both in Mad Bill's Word and in his Judgement, greatly enhanced by their rich History, working together...

You never know.

...

I think the one trend that has recently thrown the value chart out a tad is the success of Newton, Luck, RG3, Wilson and to an extent Tanihill. These picks show what picking your QB can do for a floundering franchise.

Mallett turns out to be his guy and has success no one will be talking about what they gave up for him. Just like RG3 if he floundered everyone would say Shanehan has ruined a franchise, now that he didn't people are saying he's a genius and worth that price and more.

After that speech... i still can't see this happening.

 

[EwanSellars]

wouldnt it be awesome if we got the 6 for mallett then traded it to a team for their 2014 1st and 2013 2nd and 3rd then trade our 2013 1st to buffalo for a 2014 1st and a 2013 3rd. It makes sense when you think about. We might actually get the 6 and in all likely hood we will trade down by spreading out the years we make it easier on the team that traded with us. We then trade our first to Buffalo. They need Nassib and want to get in front of the other quarterback needy teams looking for a QB early in the 2nd a 2014 first and a 2013 3rd seem pretty faair for them getting ahead of other teams to get their franchise QB that would give us 3 2014 first rounds picks 2 2013 2nd round picks and 2 2013 3rd round picks. all and all i think this would be great and would actually be a reasonable set of trades. If you look at the talent in next years draft you understand why i want as many 2014 firsts as possible. Stephon Tuitt, Marquise Lee, Louis Nix, Austin Sefarian Jenkins and Deanthony Thomas just to name a few

 

[dryheat44]

The question is always, who is there that someone would want to trade up for? This is a fairly flat draft at the top, without many true blue chip players. The guys who I can think of that teams might consider trading up for:

- One of the left tackles. Right now only Joeckel seems like a clear top 5 prospect, and he should be gone before #6. Fisher and Johnson would have to rise quite a bit to make it worth someone's while to trade up for them.

- One of the pass rushers. Bjoern Werner, Demontre Moore and Jarvis Jones seem like the 3 guys worth going after in the top 10, with Jones' spinal stenosis a medical red flag to be addressed.

- One of the tackles. Lotulelei seems like the obvious one, though Sheldon Richardson or Johnathan Hankins could rise.

- Dee Milliner. The only DB on the board who seems like he could warrant a top 10 pick.

That's about all that I can see worth trading for in this draft. I can't see anyone making a trade up for one of the QBs, and there are no offensive skill players that will likely go in the top 10, unless Keenan Allen's draft stock rises significantly.



Also, it's pretty clear that 2014 is going to be much stronger at the top than 2013, so it may be hard to get teams to give up their future 1st round picks.

I think in this scenario I'd rather take Milliner than trade the pick, unless we get a 1st next year. I don't know what Talib's future here is, but I think it's Arrington's time to move along regardless.

 

[EwanSellars]

i think arrington is a great slot cornerback which can be valuable on the outside he is awful but in the slot hes great and i as well wouldnt mind Dee Miliner with the 6

 

[borg]

I actually can see this type of transaction for that price happening.

The price: To pry the Pats #2 QB (with 2 years left on rookie contract) away from NE with no other QB on the roster.....any team would have to offer a significant premium.

Time travel: The knock on Mallet was never his arm but more on who he was as a person. Selfish, stupid, immature, poor decision maker off the field. His make up forced teams to remove his name from many draft boards.

The Present: With two years under his belt, Mallet has seamlessly blended into the organization with no extracurricular blemishes. In fact, the Patriots faith in Mallet was clearly demonstrated by his promotion to #2 QB and the subsequent release of all other QB options. NE had seen enough to feel comfortable relying on Mallet.

The Climate: The NFL looks like a league divided. The new wave mobile QB that can rocket a needy team into contention verses the traditional pocket passer. With 4 teams standing, the count is 3 pocket passers vs 1 slasher. Which kind of QB do you think the old NFL guard favors? History has shown mobile QBs star shines the brightest but usually burns out quickly due to the many hits.

The Pocket Passer: I don't have a clue about college talent, but I do have an opinion on what works vs what doesn't work in the NFL. If a team desires a pocket passer, that QB must have vision over the LOS. I looked at Sanchez and saw a diminutive QB (compared to successful stay in the pocket NFL QBs) and expected a fail. Same with some of these mid tier NFL QBs with the low arm slot like Rivers and Romo.
And arm strength comes into play. The NFL has been littered with accurate but low arm strength QBs that can only take a QB so far. In other words....low ceiling.

Why Mallet now: He fits my physical criterion of a prototypical NFL pocket passer. He has passed the maturity test. The Patriots have validated Mallets NFL credentials through promotion. He has two years under his belt in one of the most complicated NFL systems.

Lombardi: Seems like a serious old school guy....and so I will make a few assumptions on his behalf. 1) He desires a tradition pocket passer, who if successful, has a longer shelf life than the new wave of runner/passer. 2) He sees value in NFL exposure vs college. 3) He sees a Browns team that strengthened itself via the Jones trade and can afford to "reach" at this time. 4) And he would view this hypothetical trade on two levels: (a) Mallet rookie contract is $$$ cost contained (averaging approx $700k in final 2 years) (b) Savings from not paying a #6 pick can deployed to shore up roster.

From Patriots perspective: Losing Mallet would be an enormous depth hit and force the team to seek alternatives and retrain....but......Hoyer is available which would provide the team with a QB comfortable with the system.....lessening the impact.

Side note: The lack of draft picks in recent drafts has to be killing BB. Such a trade would allow BB to resume his draft annuity strategy, an advantage I believe he enjoys.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I also agree that Patton would be a steal at 70 but if we got the 6th pick would there be a player you would keep it for would you automatically trade it. I would use it on someone like Star Lotulei. If not id definitely do a trade with the Rams they have 2 first rounders for the next 2 years. I think we could definitely get 2 firsts out of them for the 6 theyre not too many pieces away from competing

I don't agree on your read of St. Louis at all. I think they are going to continue to build depth and a quality roster. last year it was trade back and trade back some more. They are in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco, so I think they are more more than a year or two away. I don't see a trade up at all for the Rams, given the players likely available.

 

[patchick]

That would be highway robbery of the Al Davis caliber. No way that's going to happen. I'd say a 3rd or 4th is about right.

Q: What's harder to imagine than the Browns trading the #6 overall pick straight up for Ryan Mallett?

A: The Patriots trading away the rocket-armed, 6'7" QB who they felt confident enough in to carry only 2 QBs all year, and who is under contract dirt-cheap for 2 more years, for a 4th-round pick.

Why would the Patriots even pause to consider an offer for less than a 2nd? Regardless of his value to the rest of the league, he has value here.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Regardless if any of this is realistic or not, if I'm going to get a king's ransom for Mallett it starts with a first rounder next year and conditional picks incase the team solid. To be frank, this year sucks at the top of the draft. There are lots of players taken 6th or later in the last two drafts that I'd take over anyone in this draft. Next year is much better.

If I can't get that then I play the beast next year and trade him next offseason. There's no rush to make a deal.

 

[borg]

Q: What's harder to imagine than the Browns trading the #6 overall pick straight up for Ryan Mallett?

A: The Patriots trading away the rocket-armed, 6'7" QB who they felt confident enough in to carry only 2 QBs all year, and who is under contract dirt-cheap for 2 more years, for a 4th-round pick.

Why would the Patriots even pause to consider an offer for less than a 2nd? Regardless of his value to the rest of the league, he has value here.

As I posted earlier, teams would have to pry Mallet away from NE with a substantial offer....an offer they could not refuse. For those that believe NE would give up Mallet for a mid rounder....does NE strike anyone as falling into the desperate to make a move category?
Such a transaction for Mallet is so much different than what the environment was during the Cassell negotiations. Putting aside skill comparisons between Mallet and Cassel, Cassel was leaving, NE had no choice but to get what the market dictated. Not the case for Mallet

 

[dryheat44]

Q: What's harder to imagine than the Browns trading the #6 overall pick straight up for Ryan Mallett?

A: The Patriots trading away the rocket-armed, 6'7" QB who they felt confident enough in to carry only 2 QBs all year, and who is under contract dirt-cheap for 2 more years, for a 4th-round pick.

Why would the Patriots even pause to consider an offer for less than a 2nd? Regardless of his value to the rest of the league, he has value here.

Seriously? I hope that wasn't his mindset with Rohan Davey -- he may have turned down a 3rd round pick while holding out for a second or first. Mallett's value to BB is strictly as a backup -- unless Brady retires this year or next, it's hard to see Mallett getting another contract here. So the equation is simply whether or not BB will take a third round pick instead of two years of back up play followed by a free agency defection. I wouldn't be surprised at all, but I would be shocked if ANY GM would offer that much for a player with no meaningful snaps in 2 years.

 

[mayoclinic]

Q: What's harder to imagine than the Browns trading the #6 overall pick straight up for Ryan Mallett?

A: The Patriots trading away the rocket-armed, 6'7" QB who they felt confident enough in to carry only 2 QBs all year, and who is under contract dirt-cheap for 2 more years, for a 4th-round pick.

Why would the Patriots even pause to consider an offer for less than a 2nd? Regardless of his value to the rest of the league, he has value here.

No one except for the Pats' coaching staff and FO really have a good assessment on how good Mallett really is. We know he's at least good enough that they've repeatedly shown comfort with him as the backup QB, and have repeatedly praised his development. But he clearly has value, and they would be dumb to give him away, especially if they have a high opinion of his abilities.

Trading Mallett exposes the team to uncertainty at depth at by far the most important position in the game. So the only reason to do that would be if the value received was significant. Mallett is locked in at low cost for 2 more seasons, so the Pats would be giving up significant positional security and depth.

The NFL has proven over and over again that the league values taking a chance on a potential franchise QB highly. There are no guarantees, but just getting the chance at a guy with significant upside and some potential of succeeding doesn't come cheap. Probably the best comparison would be the Matt Schaub trade. Houston traded 2 2nd round picks (#39 in 2007 plus their 2008 2nd round pick) to Atlanta for Schaub, plus a move up in the first round worth 100 points. That's 620 points in 2007, or roughly the value of the #30 pick overall, plus a 2008 2nd. The total value of the package was somewhere in the range of the #20 overall pick, valuing the 2008 2nd round pick at somewhere around 220 points (roughly equivalent to a high-mid 2007 3rd round pick). Schaub was a 3rd round pick in 2004 who had played in 6 games prior to being traded. He hasn't necessarily been the savior in Houston, but they've been a competitive team since he joined them, after being a bottom dweller for years, and have won the division twice.

#6 is worth 1600 points. But the difference between #6 and #32 is above the value of the #16 pick, which is within range of the Schaub trade. It's not completely unreasonable, if Lombardi believes that Mallett is his best chance at getting off the QB carousel. What IS unreasonable is believing that the Pats would give up Mallett for something less than very substantial consideration.

Joe Flacco was the #18 pick in 2008. Mallett, like Flacco, is a relatively immobile, tall, big armed QB. Having someone with the ability to stretch the field in the AFC North would make Cleveland much more competitive. They already have a very good RB, LT, RT and center and a couple of promising young receivers, so they're in pretty solid shape if they could get a decent QB.

 

[everlong]

Q: What's harder to imagine than the Browns trading the #6 overall pick straight up for Ryan Mallett?

A: The Patriots trading away the rocket-armed, 6'7" QB who they felt confident enough in to carry only 2 QBs all year, and who is under contract dirt-cheap for 2 more years, for a 4th-round pick.

Why would the Patriots even pause to consider an offer for less than a 2nd? Regardless of his value to the rest of the league, he has value here.

And that sums up why he won't be traded. His value to the Patriots is higer than it is to any team looking to trade for him.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I lied watched ESPN for a few minutes between periods of the hockey game. They mentioned Lombardi considered Mallett the top dropback qb in 2011 draft. Didn't speculate on a trade, just said Cleveland picks 6th and doesn't have a 2nd.

 

[Snake Eyes]

And that sums up why he won't be traded. His value to the Patriots is higer than it is to any team looking to trade for him.

They could easily swap picks or work out a more comlicated deal to get it done.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I lied watched ESPN for a few minutes between periods of the hockey game. They mentioned Lombardi considered Mallett the top dropback qb in 2011 draft. Didn't speculate on a trade, just said Cleveland picks 6th and doesn't have a 2nd.

Plus as a commentator, Lombardi blasted the Weedon pick by Cleveland as being a huge reach.

 

[Sfpat]

Remember, the Pats will still need to get Brady's replacement at QB if they trade Mallet (assuming Mallet is a candidate)

 

[patchick]

Mallett's value to BB is strictly as a backup -- unless Brady retires this year or next, it's hard to see Mallett getting another contract here. So the equation is simply whether or not BB will take a third round pick instead of two years of back up play followed by a free agency defection.

I don't think there's any argument on those points. I guess I'm just surprised that anybody doesn't think that a promising backup QB who has been learning the offense and earning the coaches' trust for 2+ years is worth a 3rd-round pick.

Imagine that Mallett weren't around. Wouldn't we all be pointing to backup QB as a scary hole on the roster? Anybody really want to head into camp with Mike Kafka -- who spent the past year out of football -- as next in line behind Brady? And forget looking to the draft for a QB this year.

 

[manxman2601]

I don't think there's any argument on those points. I guess I'm just surprised that anybody doesn't think that a promising backup QB who has been learning the offense and earning the coaches' trust for 2+ years is worth a 3rd-round pick.

Imagine that Mallett weren't around. Wouldn't we all be pointing to backup QB as a scary hole on the roster? Anybody really want to head into camp with Mike Kafka -- who spent the past year out of football -- as next in line behind Brady? And forget looking to the draft for a QB this year.

I think this year is an ideal year to draft a QB assuming we resign our biggest FA's (and trade Mallet). We have no great needs, there is good depth at the QB position in the draft and there's no need to rush anyone along and wherever we pick, there should be, at the very least, a competent backup available and potentially a starter in the longer term. Zac Dysert could be the best of the bunch and worth a late first to someone and Landry Jones in the 3rd could be seen as a steal someday.

 

[dryheat44]

I don't think there's any argument on those points. I guess I'm just surprised that anybody doesn't think that a promising backup QB who has been learning the offense and earning the coaches' trust for 2+ years is worth a 3rd-round pick.

Imagine that Mallett weren't around. Wouldn't we all be pointing to backup QB as a scary hole on the roster? Anybody really want to head into camp with Mike Kafka -- who spent the past year out of football -- as next in line behind Brady? And forget looking to the draft for a QB this year.

If Mallett weren't on the roster, I expect we'd have Brian Hoyer, Kyle Orton, or somebody competent instead of a vacancy. Heck, Cassel might be available. Don't get me wrong, I think Mallet's worth more than a 3rd, but I don't know what Belichick knows.