What to do with Wes Welker?

[ctpatsfan77]

I have always been of the belief that the Franchise Tag was intended to allow teams time to re-sign their best and most important players to long term deals, and not simply to prevent them from hitting the free market. I have always supported the tags because i thought that was their utility but if they were simply meant to allow teams to screw their best players then I think they suck and the players should never have allowed the owners that option. Ultimately that's the players mistake for allowing the tags in the CBA and that's the way it goes and welker is paying a big price for it.

Again, though, remember the status quo ante before the franchise tag: unrestricted FA took six years.

"Fixing" the franchise tag, IMO, doesn't require eliminating it. It should, however, mandate that teams be required to make good-faith efforts to sign the player long-term.

 

[PatsDeb]

I have been upset since last year that they haven't signed Wes. What the heck were they thinking? Pay the man. He's shown that he's irreplaceable in our offense as currently constituted. Let him and Brady play together a few more years. If they had given him a deal last year they wouldn't have had to pay him on a franchise tag or worry about having to do so again.

Don't give me the Edelman can replace him argument. 1) Edelman HAS improved tremendously this year, but he isn't the same player as Welker, like many thought he was. When Mickey D finally figured that out and started playing them together, instead of trying to substitute Edelman for Welker, look what happened to both of them - fabulous play! 2) Despite the fact that he is older and had a major knee injury, Welker is more durable than Edelman (and Gronk and Hernandez for that matter).

Don't give me the "we are replacing our Welker-centric O with our fabulous TE-centric O." Welker clearly complements the TE-centric O, and where would we be without him this year with both Gronk & Hernandez going down for extended periods of time? Sheesh. I think the Pats have misplayed the Welker situation, and now it's going to cost them even more.

I stand by this, which I wrote before Edelman went down for the season.

 

[ATippett56]

Randy Moss at the age of 31 received $27 million for 3 years ($12 million signing bonus).

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2008 Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page

Reggie Wayne at the age of 33 received $17.5 million for 3 years ($7.5 million signing bonus).

Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

The salary cap is projected to be around $121.1 million for the 2013 NFL Season. Wes Welker at the age of 32 should be offered around $21 million for 3 years with a $12 million signing bonus (same as Randy Moss received).

Salary Cap Hits

2013: $6 million ($1,000,000 base, $500,000 roster bonus, $500,000 workout bonus)
2014: $7 million
2015: $8 million

 

[1%er]

After being almost invisible the first two games of the year, Welker is on pace for 123 receptions and 1419 yards.

Franchise him again?
Sign him to a 2-3 year extension?
Trade him? (I do wonder what they could get for him)

Resign him.. I'd say offer him a 3 yr contract for $27M

I cannot see how this team can carry on without him.. AH consistently misses 2+ games in each season he's been a pro and Lloyd is to afraid of contact to be a slot receiver.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

He's been disappearing lately when they have needed him more, or at least it appears that way to me.

It's mostly in your mind his season targets are:

1. 8
2. 13
3. 12
4. 7
5. 5
6. 12
7. 8
8. 4
9. 6
10. 7
11. 5
12. 1

Games 2 and 3 Gronk was still slowed by his ankle and AH was out; and game 6 the Pats decided to air it out with 44 targets going to Lloyd, WW, Gronk, and AH. Outside of those aberrations and the most recent game Lloyd has been targeted pretty consistently. In the closing 4th qtr drives in the Pats 3 recent close games Lloyd has been targeted 4 times with 3 catches for 27 yds, not to mention being out there to field the onside kick. If he was seeing the same attention throughout the game as he has been when the games are on the line his stat line would exceed anyone's expectations. To me that's the opposite of disappearing when they need him more. Despite not being the deep threat many were hoping for Lloyd's skillset has been a valuable asset and will most likely continue to be in key games.

 

[Huckleberry1]

It's mostly in your mind his season targets are:

1. 8
2. 13
3. 12
4. 7
5. 5
6. 12
7. 8
8. 4
9. 6
10. 7
11. 5
12. 1

Games 2 and 3 Gronk was still slowed by his ankle and AH was out; and game 6 the Pats decided to air it out with 44 targets going to Lloyd, WW, Gronk, and AH. Outside of those aberrations and the most recent game Lloyd has been targeted pretty consistently. In the closing 4th qtr drives in the Pats 3 recent close games Lloyd has been targeted 4 times with 3 catches for 27 yds, not to mention being out there to field the onside kick. If he was seeing the same attention throughout the game as he has been when the games are on the line his stat line would exceed anyone's expectations. To me that's the opposite of disappearing when they need him more. Despite not being the deep threat many were hoping for Lloyd's skillset has been a valuable asset and will most likely continue to be in key games.

I don't think your numbers bear that out at all, in fact they seem to back up my point, broken down into 3 game units his most targets came the first 3 games and fewest the last 3. Beyond that his YAC is abysmal. I think Brady respects Lloyd's ability to win battles for balls and forced the ball to him early but his limitations getting separation and lack of production after the catch have led him to look elsewhere as of late.

I'm not looking to bash Lloyd, I was glad they got him but honestly expected more than what we have seen . I hope he really steps up with Gronk and Edelman out, but unless he goes on a serious tear then I would look at him first if they need to get cap room today Welker, which was the context I made my remarks in. I hope he goes nuts.

 

[patfanken]

Randy Moss at the age of 31 received $27 million for 3 years ($12 million signing bonus).

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2008 Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page

Reggie Wayne at the age of 33 received $17.5 million for 3 years ($7.5 million signing bonus).

Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts - 2012 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

The salary cap is projected to be around $121.1 million for the 2013 NFL Season. Wes Welker at the age of 32 should be offered around $21 million for 3 years with a $12 million signing bonus (same as Randy Moss received).

Salary Cap Hits

2013: $6 million ($1,000,000 base, $500,000 roster bonus, $500,000 workout bonus)
2014: $7 million
2015: $8 million

I don't think the Pats would have any problem with duplicating Reggie Wayne's contract ($17.5 for 3 years, and I bet they'd even give him a 10MM signing bonus. I even think your 21MM 3 year deal is in the ball park, though I think your signing bonus is too much. He is NOT Randy Moss, and although Moss was worth the money when they signed him, he wasn't by the time he left, and THAT's part of the Welker problem, that no one seems to want to get real with.

By the time Moss left, he, reportedly, could no longer get separation, and no longer needed over the top coverage by a safety. Yet even then Moss was a 6'5 target with great hands. What is Welker going to be able to offer when he can no longer get separation. A 5'9 target, and consistently being one of the top 10 in the league in ball drops. That's the reality Its not pretty. So the it behooves the Pats to be very careful in what they offer Welker.

Again, its important to consider how much the Pats have already allocated to the receivers on this team. According to Jason the Pats will already have have over $11MM in cap space tied up with just Gronk, Hernandez and Lloyd, and Gronk and Hernandez's numbers will escalate in a hurry in the future. But even next year, the Pats will have almost 40% of their cap tied up by their just QB and 4 top receivers if the Pats give Welker a market deal. Does that really make sense to you?

 

[patsox23]

PAY HIM. Period. Three years with some incentives, and an option for a 4th.

 

[ATippett56]

I hope he really steps up with Gronk and Edelman out, but unless he goes on a serious tear then I would look at him first if they need to get cap room today Welker, which was the context I made my remarks in. I hope he goes nuts.

It's more expensive to cut Lloyd than to keep him with regards to the 2013 New England Patriots salary cap.

New England Patriots Salary Cap 2013

If the New England Patriots were serious about additional cap space for the 2013 NFL Season, the New England Patriots should pursue recouping the $3.85 million signing bonus from Jonathan Fanene or at least 2/3 of the original signing bonus.

 

[DocHoliday]

After seeing the offense as of late run through Welker, I've reconsidered my Edelman can take over position.

This team requires Wes Welker. There is no if ands or buts around it. You all have good arguments, but there's simply no denying that his production cannot be replaced by anyone we currently have, and any player we can bring in (Amendola or Hartline) is either a step down or an injury risk.

Thus, we need him for at least two more seasons. Can't franchise 3x in a row.

Pay the man.

 

[Danger Zone]

After seeing the offense as of late run through Welker, I've reconsidered my Edelman can take over position.

This team requires Wes Welker. There is no if ands or buts around it. You all have good arguments, but there's simply no denying that his production cannot be replaced by anyone we currently have, and any player we can bring in (Amendola or Hartline) is either a step down or an injury risk.

Thus, we need him for at least two more seasons. Can't franchise 3x in a row.

Pay the man.

Parallels my own thinking almost exactly.

Coming into the start of this season I was at least [grudgingly] willing to entertain the idea of getting what value we could for Welker in trade, but a couple games in it dawned on me in an Ivan-esque kind of epiphany.. just pay the man. He moves the chains and he's worth it (that and its good Karma).

---

And Ivan, when you are not on a pejorative rant about the FO or other posters, I will say your side of the argument is a pleasure to read.

---

A link from the most recent Patsfan headlines: Brady stating that Welker is a quarterback's dream. http://www.csnne.com/football-new-england-patriots/patriots-talk/Brady-Welker-a-quarterbacks-dream?blockID=810305&feedID=3946

 

[Huckleberry1]

3 years 17.5 million is a pathetic joke.anyone who thinks that'swhat he's worth must think he sucks and is a moron. Unbelievable

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

I don't think your numbers bear that out at all, in fact they seem to back up my point, broken down into 3 game units his most targets came the first 3 games and fewest the last 3. Beyond that his YAC is abysmal. I think Brady respects Lloyd's ability to win battles for balls and forced the ball to him early but his limitations getting separation and lack of production after the catch have led him to look elsewhere as of late.

I'm not looking to bash Lloyd, I was glad they got him but honestly expected more than what we have seen . I hope he really steps up with Gronk and Edelman out, but unless he goes on a serious tear then I would look at him first if they need to get cap room today Welker, which was the context I made my remarks in. I hope he goes nuts.

His targets are decreasing, but it's a far cry from disappearing. There's only the single game that supports the disappearing statement, and I highly doubt that the Phins' game is going to become the new standard for the Pats. To me it looks like Lloyd's targets are settling in around 6 per game and I expect that to be about the average for the final 4 games.

 

[ATippett56]

Does that really make sense to you?

The New England Patriots can replenish the offensive line via the NFL Draft starting with Sebastian Vollmer in calendar year 2013 and Dan Connolly in calendar year 2015. The New England Patriots currently have seven offensive lineman under contract for the 2013 NFL Season that are currently on the 53 man roster: Solder, Cannon, Zusevics, Mankins, Connolly, Wendell, McDonald. Donald Thomas may, once again, be inexpensive to re-sign on a one year deal.

The combination of running backs Shane Vereen and Jeff Demps should replace the skill set of running back Danny Woodhead in calendar year 2013.

Tight end Jake Ballard should replace tight ends Visanthe Shiancoe and Michael Hooman (or whatever his last name is) in calendar year 2013. There will be no need to keep five tight ends on the roster for the 2013 NFL Season with Gronkowski, Hernandez, Fells currently under contract for the following season.

Shane Vereen, Jeff Demps, Jake Ballard will not be vested veterans in calendar year 2013 since none of the aforementioned three will have accrued four NFL seasons.

 

[ATippett56]

You all have good arguments, but there's simply no denying that his production cannot be replaced by anyone we currently have, and any player we can bring in (Amendola or Hartline) is either a step down or an injury risk.

Danny Amendola ..... guess again.

Franchise tag looks inevitable for Amendola | ProFootballTalk

Amendola would have no complaints about the franchise tag | ProFootballTalk

 

[Froob]

Personally, I'm looking forward to New England Patriots tight end Visanthe Shiancoe returning for calendar year 2013. Tight end Jake Ballard hasn't even played a game yet! And as we all know, you can't make the club from the tub!

 

[Deus Irae]

His targets are decreasing, but it's a far cry from disappearing. There's only the single game that supports the disappearing statement, and I highly doubt that the Phins' game is going to become the new standard for the Pats. To me it looks like Lloyd's targets are settling in around 6 per game and I expect that to be about the average for the final 4 games.

His targets are down an average of about 50% since the Jets game, from just under 9.5 to just over 4.5. You can call it what you want, but he's been scaled back.

 

[manxman2601]

3 years 17.5 million is a pathetic joke.anyone who thinks that'swhat he's worth must think he sucks and is a moron. Unbelievable

I can see why Welker's agent has been unable to strike a deal with the Pats. Needs work on his negotiating skills.

 

[nekromantique]

I wondered why they gave gronkowski and hernandez expensive new contracts...I thought the advantage of a rookie deal was getting the players cheaply. I can see how Welker would want as much as they get, he's actually on the field more.

IMO the patriots are making a mistake in giving too many high dollar contracts, mankins, gronk, hernandez, mayo...

Ridley will want an upgrade and is deserved....Vollmer if he ever gets his back right, Solder would get a huge raise, Welker...is there enough money in the bank?

they extend them past their rookie deals...basically meaning they wont even touch free agency for a long time. when healthy theyre the best te duo in the league and will probably continue to be even after brady is done. gronk has had very little trouble being on the field until his broken forearm. Hernandez has missed a lot of time though. welker is older and pats are clearly trying to refresh their roster with youth...expect a young receiver to be signed or drafted...pretty sure its currently the oldest position on their roster.


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[nekromantique]

Personally, I'm looking forward to New England Patriots tight end Visanthe Shiancoe returning for calendar year 2013. Tight end Jake Ballard hasn't even played a game yet! And as we all know, you can't make the club from the tub!

pats knew the circumstances when they claimed him...seriously doubt they ever expected him to play this year



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