The Devil In Stevan Ridley's Details

[ausbacker]

I'm comparing him to guys who played at an equivalent level on the same team.

As opposed to Ridley who has played at a higher level.

No you're not. You grouping Green-Ellis with players you believe to be at an equivalent level. It has been correctly pointed out to you that Green-Ellis played at a higher level than those you are attempting to categorize him with.

Remove your blinkers, give Green-Ellis the praise that he deserves and enjoy the performances of Ridley (and one can only hoper Vereen) in the near future.

 

[pazrul72]

Lawfirm is a drive killer period. But he never fumbles you say. I say you cant fumble if youre already down. No big play ability. No clock killing ability. No fear of a big run. Worthless worthless running back.

Worthless is more than a little harsh, BJGE was consistent and I assure you that has value to the Hoody. Never fumbling? always getting at least 3 yards? While I'll grant you that is boring football it is effective and worthwhile. Could we use an upgrade? Absolutly and I think we have one in Ridley but stop acting like there were 64 better RB's then BJGE in the league becuase your lack of Football comprehension is showing. BJGE is what he is, safe reliable and a top 20ish back in the league.

 

[JJDChE]

No you're not. You grouping Green-Ellis with players you believe to be at an equivalent level. It has been correctly pointed out to you that Green-Ellis played at a higher level than those you are attempting to categorize him with.

Yes, Benji played 16 games in '10 as opposed to Maroney's 13 in '07. Maroney had better YPC and more yards per game than Benji, Benji had more TDs than Maroney. They are pretty equivalent seasons. Maroney's '09 was a little better than Benji's '11.

I like Benji better than Maroney, but they're on the same tier.

 

[ausbacker]

Yes, Benji played 16 games in '10 as opposed to Maroney's 13 in '07. Maroney had better YPC and more yards per game than Benji, Benji had more TDs than Maroney. They are pretty equivalent seasons. Maroney's '09 was a little better than Benji's '11.

I like Benji better than Maroney, but they're on the same tier.

No they're not.

 

[supafly]

Yes, Benji played 16 games in '10 as opposed to Maroney's 13 in '07. Maroney had better YPC and more yards per game than Benji, Benji had more TDs than Maroney. They are pretty equivalent seasons. Maroney's '09 was a little better than Benji's '11.

I like Benji better than Maroney, but they're on the same tier.

"Success rate" is a way to evaluate a RBs consistency. It judges a RB based on how often he has a "successful" run. The definition of a "successful run" varies slightly based on who is doing the calculations, but it generally means something like 4 yards on a first down, half of the yards needed on a second down, and converting on a third down. Some RBs put up big numbers by busting a few long plays, but they don't consistently have "successful runs".

According to Football Outsiders BJGE ranked 2nd in the league in Success Rate in 2010 and 6th last year...FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010 (Benson ranked 26th in '10 and 21st in '11)

According to Advanced Football Stats BJGE ranked 4th in the league in Success Rate 2010 and 9th last year ....Advanced NFL Stats - Player Statistics by Position (Benson ranked 32nd in '10 and 44th in '11)

His 1st game as a CIN Bengal was pretty impressive too, considering that he was up against the BAL defense, and that the team was way behind and abandoned the run game, or he would have easily topped 100 yds.

91 yards--5.1 rpc--1 TD

Let's also remember that he had 24 TD's rushing the past 2 years too. How many RB's in the NFL can lay claim to that?

I'm not saying that he is the second coming of Barry Sanders, but I am saying that he deserves his due at the same time, especially considering that he still scored 11 TD's last yr + 700 yds while battling through a nagging injury all season.

Comparing him to Maroney is not very fair in my opinion.

 

[PP2]

I'm comparing him to guys who played at an equivalent level on the same team.

As opposed to Ridley who has played at a higher level.

Yes, Benji played 16 games in '10 as opposed to Maroney's 13 in '07. Maroney had better YPC and more yards per game than Benji, Benji had more TDs than Maroney. They are pretty equivalent seasons. Maroney's '09 was a little better than Benji's '11.

I like Benji better than Maroney, but they're on the same tier.

You scolded me for using semantics as far as biting on PA, but now you're using it and ignoring the hard numbers. If only Maroney played 16 games.. IF only.. woulda coulda shoulda... if that qualified a player, Bethel Johnson would be in the Patriots hall of fame.

IF doesn't get you anywhere in the NFL. As I mentioned elsewhere, whether by design, health, or simply hard luck, Maroney, while he may have demonstrated huge potential, simply didn't break the 1,000 yard or the 10 TD milestone, period.

So to group him with RBs that did is downright laughable.

 

[JJDChE]

"Success rate"

Those things are just as flawed as YPC. It's nearly impossible and virtually pointless to create these combined stats for football. As was said earlier, too many inter-dependencies.

That success rate stat is an interesting concept but it only tells a tiny fraction of the story. That fact is that a 17 yard run on 3 and 3 is much more 'successful' and impactful than a 4 yard run. Yet that particular stat values them equally.

 

[ausbacker]

Those things are just as flawed as YPC. It's nearly impossible and virtually pointless to create these combined stats for football. As was said earlier, too many inter-dependencies.

That success rate stat is an interesting concept but it only tells a tiny fraction of the story. That fact is that a 17 yard run on 3 and 3 is much more 'successful' and impactful than a 4 yard run. Yet that particular stat values them equally.

You're picking and choosing as you please in the vain attempt to support a flimsy argument. Green-Ellis has enjoyed a better career than the RB's you attempted to categorize him with. Ridley, who has his future before him is yet to determine his greatness (and he looks great right now).

Move on.

 

[JJDChE]

You're picking and choosing as you please in the vain attempt to support a flimsy argument. Green-Ellis has enjoyed a better career than the RB's you attempted to categorize him with. Ridley, who has his future before him is yet to determine his greatness (and he looks great right now).

Move on.

I didn't say either one had a better career. Just that you would expect the same production-wise from any of them. Benji has shown (thus far) a few other added advantages over Maroney and Morris, i.e. ball security, durability, short-yardage. That's why i'd prefer Benji over those guys, but the talent level is similar.

Maroney '07/'09 28 games, 382 att, 1592 yds, 4.2 ypc, 15 TD
BJGE '10/'11 32 games, 410 att, 1675 yds, 4.1 ypc, 24 TD

Very similar production. Benji got more goalline opportunities, but he certainly wasn't creating points for us. We were scoring whether we gave it to him down there or not.

 

[ausbacker]

I didn't say either one had a better career. Just that you would expect the same production-wise from any of them. Benji has shown (thus far) a few other added advantages over Maroney and Morris, i.e. ball security, durability, short-yardage. That's why i'd prefer Benji over those guys, but the talent level is similar.

Maroney '07/'09 28 games, 382 att, 1592 yds, 4.2 ypc, 15 TD
BJGE '10/'11 32 games, 410 att, 1675 yds, 4.1 ypc, 24 TD

Very similar production. Benji got more goalline opportunities, but he certainly wasn't creating points for us. We were scoring whether we gave it to him down there or not.

JJDChE, you've had your opinion of Green-Ellis shot down multiple times and by several posters. You're now repeating the same rubbish you were repeating several pages ago. Move on.

 

[JJDChE]

JJDChE, you've had your opinion of Green-Ellis shot down multiple times and by several posters. You're now repeating the same rubbish you were repeating several pages ago. Move on.

You're the one who said he was more talented than Ridley, right? How's that working out?

 

[ausbacker]

You're the one who said he was more talented than Ridley, right? How's that working out?

I thought you'd play this card so I linked the Ridley thread where you managed to make a fool of yourself here. Your leopard spots have remained the same.

Feel free to point out to me where I made the comment that Green-Ellis was more talented than Stevan Ridley. I think you'll find my position remains the same from the outset.

 

[JJDChE]

I thought you'd play this card so I linked the Ridley thread where you managed to make a fool of yourself here. Your leopard spots have remained the same.

Could you point to the post where think I made a fool of myself. I barely did more than state the obvious.

Feel free to point out to me where I made the comment that Green-Ellis was more talented than Stevan Ridley. I think you'll find my position remains the same from the outset.

Gladly...

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...er-radar-stevan-ridley-page4.html#post2724565

Ridley is more talented than BJGE. That's just a fact. He may or may not yet be a better football player; obviously, at this point we don't know that. There's a role for both of them on this team either way, so nobody's throwing BJGE under the bus, or dismissing him, or any other melodramatic characterization that you want to make.

The running game in 2010 depended on Brady to be effective. On the rare occasions that opponents were able to stop the pass, there wasn't enough talent in the running game to beat them on the ground.

No, he is NOT.

If you're willing to project a career on 4 quarters worth of exposure save me the bickering stupidity and I'll just put you on ignore now.

(emphasis yours)

Who was it that looks like a fool?

 

[BananaRepublican]

His 1st game as a CIN Bengal was pretty impressive too, considering that he was up against the BAL defense, and that the team was way behind and abandoned the run game, or he would have easily topped 100 yds.

Interesting point. Interesting thing to watch going forward. The real reason for that highly successful outing remains a mystery to me. I have to believe that Baltimore was just saying, "Beat us with the run but we're not giving up the pass", knowing that Bennie couldn't beat them with the run.

I think Ngata's 2 sacks may be some evidence in favor of that theory. If a NT is that concerned with getting into the backfield then he certainly isn't over playing the run.

 

[Off The Grid]

Barry Sanders holds the record for the most carries with negative yards, that still doesn't change the fact that Barry Sanders was phenomenal. His long runs negate his bad ones.

Stevan "You May Fire When Ready" Ridley is no Barry Sanders.

And I thank Jeebus for that.

Barry Sanders was delightfull and entertaining...

...But you could never count on'm to Move The Chains when you needed it.

And ~ last I heard ~ we were still In The Business Of Winning Championships.

For my money, you can keep Barry Sanders.

Ridley...will Move The Chains.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Stevan "You May Fire When Ready" Ridley is no Barry Sanders.

And I thank Jeebus for that.

Barry Sanders was delightfull and entertaining...

...But you could never count on'm to Move The Chains when you needed it.

And ~ last I heard ~ we were still In The Business Of Winning Championships.

For my money, you can keep Barry Sanders.

Ridley...will Move The Chains.

What kind of O-line did Sanders have? Did they ever have a decent passing game that the opposing Defense had to respect?

Sanders basically was the offense, one can only imagine what he would have done if he was in the position Ridley is in now. I would be most willing to trade Ridley for a Barry Sanders clone.

 

[lamafist]

Those things are just as flawed as YPC. It's nearly impossible and virtually pointless to create these combined stats for football. As was said earlier, too many inter-dependencies.

That success rate stat is an interesting concept but it only tells a tiny fraction of the story. That fact is that a 17 yard run on 3 and 3 is much more 'successful' and impactful than a 4 yard run. Yet that particular stat values them equally.

Combined stats? Pray tell, what's being combined? Passer Rating is a combined stat. Things like Expected Points and Success Rate are as much a straight metric as yards per carry.

Also, you clearly don't understand the point about interdependency. It's what makes it impossible, at present, to isolate a running back's performance from that of his offensive line. It's what makes it take more work to tell the difference between a "bend but don't break" defense, and one that just given better mean field position.

You are acting as if these limitations make it pointless to compare relative merits of statistical metrics, when in fact, the exact opposite is true. You also are acting as if it's better to simply choose just one metric to consider, when you're argument about interdependency would strongly suggest that its better to look at a number of them in conjunction.

For example, Supafly brought success rate into the conversation not to replace yards per carry, but to add more context to what we're taking away from it. We know that some of the weaknesses of the yards per carry metric are that it doesn't take consistency into account, and that it's situation blind - i.e. a 15 yard run on 3rd and 20 is worth 3x as much as a 5 yard run on 3rd and 5.

So given two backs with equivalent yards per carry rates, the one with the higher Success Rate has gained that yardage more consistently and with more situational value.

Finally, if you have problems with interdependency, you should welcome the addition of Expected Points Added and Win Probability Added to the conversation. While they are no more able to discriminate between the running back's contribution and the O-Line's, at least they aren't hopelessly interdependent with game situations. Are they perfect? Surely not. Do they tell us more than YPC without adding any other unaccounted for variables? Absolutely.

 

[lamafist]

Interesting point. Interesting thing to watch going forward. The real reason for that highly successful outing remains a mystery to me. I have to believe that Baltimore was just saying, "Beat us with the run but we're not giving up the pass", knowing that Bennie couldn't beat them with the run.

I think Ngata's 2 sacks may be some evidence in favor of that theory. If a NT is that concerned with getting into the backfield then he certainly isn't over playing the run.

Actually, Ngata's not Baltimore's NT anymore. They got fellow Tongan Maake Kemoeatu at nose, and Ngata at DE in the 3-4, and playing under-tackle in their sub-packages, which they were in on both of his sacks.

 

[Off The Grid]

Stevan "You May Fire When Ready" Ridley is no Barry Sanders.

And I thank Jeebus for that.

Barry Sanders was delightfull and entertaining...

...But you could never count on'm to Move The Chains when you needed it.

And ~ last I heard ~ we were still In The Business Of Winning Championships.

For my money, you can keep Barry Sanders.

Ridley...will Move The Chains.

What kind of O-line did Sanders have? Did they ever have a decent passing game that the opposing Defense had to respect?

Sanders basically was the offense, one can only imagine what he would have done if he was in the position Ridley is in now. I would be most willing to trade Ridley for a Barry Sanders clone.

Your memory's faulty: They had plenty of Passing Offense in Sanders' day.

Don't you remember the Run & Shoot??

Obviously, I was talking about who I want carrying the ball when we're trying to win a Big Game.

I wasn't talking Trades, now, was I?

If you want to change the subject to Market Value, then just as obviously, I'd trade Ridley ~ it's well documented 1000X over that I prefer Flex Backs ~ for Sanders, straight up, as you just postulated.

But this nonsense about Sanders' horrible Line is pure Urban Legend.

The problem with Sanders wasn't his O Line...

The problem...was Sanders.

He always wanted to hit the Home Run.

He had no respect for Moving The Chains...or Winning.

Have you forgotten??

The last couple of years, the Coach would yoink him in Short Yardage situations ~ "The Greatest Running Back of All Time" ~ because the pansy shirked contact!!

Obviously, the Coach didn't think that the O Line was the problem.

I'll go with his opinion, thank you.

 

[JJDChE]

Combined stats? Pray tell, what's being combined? Passer Rating is a combined stat. Things like Expected Points and Success Rate are as much a straight metric as yards per carry.

Combined was probably the wrong term. My point is that I don't want to have to do research to determine if the person who created the stat is using appropriate logic to come up with their stat.

The success rate stat isn't really an example of that, it's merely incomplete.

YPC is at least a bulk efficiency stat. It's complete, but not necessarily straightforward.

Also, you clearly don't understand the point about interdependency.

No, I do.

You are acting as if these limitations make it pointless to compare relative merits of statistical metrics

Not pointless, just more work than it's worth for the majority of the time.

Most situations are adequately described with bulk stats and common sense.

I'm sure all these 'advanced stats' are great for people who analyze football for a hobby or a job. Not for 99.9% of football fans.

Finally, if you have problems with interdependency, you should welcome the addition of Expected Points Added and Win Probability Added to the conversation. While they are no more able to discriminate between the running back's contribution and the O-Line's, at least they aren't hopelessly interdependent with game situations. Are they perfect? Surely not. Do they tell us more than YPC without adding any other unaccounted for variables? Absolutely.

I don't have a problem with interdependency. I accept it and move on. The standard stats are enough to characterize 80% of the situations/comparisons. I don't want to deal with the 25 other stats it would take to 'perfectly' assess the other 20% of the situations. Pareto principle, if you will.

Ridley v. BJGE is a perfect example of not needing to get into the minutia to come to a conclusion.